Hot on the heels of yesterday’s Galaxy poll of Queensland marginals, Michael McKenna in The Australian tells us the Liberals feel they might even be able to save Moreton, thus limiting the damage to Bonner. Intriguingly, Labor is said to have ‘virtually written off’ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman. Dickson is also said to be a bridge too far. Longman was one of the four seats surveyed in the Galaxy poll, suggesting it may have added Liberal ballast to the overall 51-49 result.
George Megalogenis of The Australian discusses the electoral strategy behind the Coalition’s three piece tax cut, which consists of a low-income tax offset, a fiddle to the threshold for the 30 per cent marginal tax rate and cuts to the two top tax rates. The first is rated the most significant, being targeted at the politically sensitive spot on the income ladder where the part-time working mother is most likely to be found through a measure not shared by higher income earners. Megalogenis says no fewer than 18 Liberal-held marginals contain above-average numbers of the policy’s target market.
Misha Schubert of The Age reports that Corio MP Gavan O’Connor, who has been dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, will announce on Thursday whether he plans to run as an independent. He is tipped to do so.
Running through the Tasmanian seats, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reckons the Gunns pulp mill approval might benefit the Liberals not in Bass but in neighbouring Braddon, Tasmania’s least green seat where many businesses will benefit from the project.
Typically bold predictions from Malcolm MacKerras in The Australian (not available online as far as I can see), who tips 89 seats for Labor, 59 for the Coalition and two independents. Bennelong and Wentworth are both on the casualty list.