• Hot on the heels of yesterday’s Galaxy poll of Queensland marginals, Michael McKenna in The Australian tells us the Liberals feel they might even be able to save Moreton, thus limiting the damage to Bonner. Intriguingly, Labor is said to have ‘virtually “written off”’ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman. Dickson is also said to be a bridge too far. Longman was one of the four seats surveyed in the Galaxy poll, suggesting it may have added Liberal ballast to the overall 51-49 result.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian discusses the electoral strategy behind the Coalition’s “three piece” tax cut, which consists of a low-income tax offset, a “fiddle to the threshold for the 30 per cent marginal tax rate” and cuts to the two top tax rates. The first is rated the most significant, being targeted at “the politically sensitive spot on the income ladder where the part-time working mother is most likely to be found” through a measure “not shared by higher income earners”. Megalogenis says no fewer than 18 Liberal-held marginals contain above-average numbers of the policy’s target market.
• Misha Schubert of The Age reports that Corio MP Gavan O’Connor, who has been dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, will announce on Thursday whether he plans to run as an independent. He is “tipped” to do so.
• Running through the Tasmanian seats, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reckons the Gunns pulp mill approval might benefit the Liberals not in Bass but in neighbouring Braddon, “Tasmania’s least green seat where many businesses will benefit from the project”.
• Typically bold predictions from Malcolm MacKerras in The Australian (not available online as far as I can see), who tips 89 seats for Labor, 59 for the Coalition and two independents. Bennelong and Wentworth are both on the casualty list.
Well,
forgive my lack of dsicrimination, but as far as I’m concerned one right -wing homophobic, evangelical secretive organisation is not too different from another, so I tend to see FF and EB as out of the same scary basket.
Howard must be scared wanting to debate this early in the campaign.
Rudd seems calm, however Howard and Costello come across as if they are rattled and chasing their tails.
You should all blame Tim Gartrell for this! How can you be allowed to “blow” 2 election campaigns in a row.
The ALP has been outmanouevred this week – I think week 1 will clearly go to JWH. The tax policy and debate are a good opening gambit to which KR clearly has no clue as to an effective response.
I hope the wife doesn’t read your blogs…….:))
wonder if those good servants of the catholic church (jesuits) know of young tony playing with the EB and FF boys
not a good look when das pappa is coming next year to bless the faithful
🙁
Bluebottle, yoof are always a problem. …see earlier postings about the strange behaviour of Young Libs. and Young Labor. Mind you this is coming from some one who is an aging member of the generation who said ‘no’ to the Vietnam War, and escaped being beaten up by Bjelke-Petersen’s incredibly dumb police, when they got a chance, by being smarter than them, but a lot of people did get very nastily hurt. I suppose the point is that a return of the current government is likely to result in something closely approximating, as others have posted, an approximation of the U.S.A terms of the political, societal and economic structures and processes. A prospect I don’t enjoy.
The Boothby poll showing Cornes trailing is probably the most suspect poll I have seen. It is contrary to all other evidence. I can’t believe Boothby is so different from the rest of SA. She can’t be that bad. Those mysterious Advertiser polls don’t deserve much credibility.
[forgive my lack of dsicrimination, but as far as I’m concerned one right -wing homophobic, evangelical secretive organisation is not too different from another, so I tend to see FF and EB as out of the same scary basket.]
I agree, they are all the same – opposed to liberty and equality.
Why they get tax exemptions, and are allowed to book political adverts from charities I have no idea.
We are just far too lenient on organisations that are opposed to basic Australian principles.
Grow up, Edward. The Libs were always going to do a big splashy tax cut – it’s what conservatives always do when they’re behind. You think Labor was taken by surprise? Rubbish. The only surprise is that he did it on day one. OK, so he gets a day or two of headlines, but he can’t talk about tax cuts for six weeks. This is the biggest shot in their locker, they’ve fired it and they can’t fire it again. What’s he going to do next week, declare war on Russia? This will wash through in less than a week, and unless it produces at least a 2% in next week’s Newspoll it will all have been for nothing. The “debate” is just a cheap display of prime ministerial arrogance.
ESJ @ 553: au contraire. If he had no idea, he’d have panicked and announced his own tax policy asap.
Time wil tell who outmanouvered whom this week. Had Rudd bitten and anounced his policy in a panic, I may well have agreed with you. Instead, he’s run a business as usual campaign thus far – admittedly not as quick off the mark as the govt, but then he doesn’t have to be – he’s not 12 points down in the polls.
Whenever a party announces its tax policy it gets the kudos for the day – that’s always been the case. The fact that the govt took the unusual step of doing it on day one does not change that fact, and means one of its big ticket items has been fired off early. I concede that, given the polls, they needed to do this.
Costello is looking petulant running around demanding that Rudd release his policy at a time of the liberal’s choosing. This from the mob who delayed and delayed even calling the election.
There can’t be m/any more $34 billion promises in the locker for the government.
As I’ve said before, the Advertiser polls are probably not to be belived in absolute numbers but cross-comparison between their polls is reasonable. The Sturt opinion poll showed Pyne leading 52-48, which fits in with my opinion that Sturt will go before Boothby.
Bottom Line; The Advertiser polls in the last weeks have showed from an ALP perspective that: Makin >> Sturt > Boothby. Sounds about right to me.
[The Boothby poll showing Cornes trailing is probably the most suspect poll I have seen. It is contrary to all other evidence. I can’t believe Boothby is so different from the rest of SA. She can’t be that bad. Those mysterious Advertiser polls don’t deserve much credibility.]
I agree. Also, the Sturt poll said that the ALP’s primary vote was exactly the same now as at the 2004 election, and that the only change was a 5% swing on preferences.
That is opposed to all the national polls that show strong primary vote swings to Labor.
ShowsOn,
we’re not just too lenient -( let’s not forget the Fundies almost ended up witht he balance of power in country at the last election). We are plain ignorant.
Thanks Matthew. You know what, I would almost concede the election to JWH if he promised to take the shine off Christopher Pyne. Lateline, then bed.
Day 1 to JWH until he stuffed up on average wages and interest rates on ACA.
Day 2, a non event unless you think the EB thing will do damage to the Coalition brand, a school of thought I don’t ascribe to.
Bring on day 3, Im bored already.
That should read: “least a 2% shift in next week’s Newspoll”
ESJ, it’s a bit early to be “calling” the week so early – it is still Tuesday after all. And we all know the maxim “A week is a long time in politics” – and I’m sure it’s more so during an election campaign.
On a side note, I was very pleased that Labor released their new campaign ad during “Dancing with the Stars” – not only did they release it on the highest rating show tonight, but they did it during an ad break when fewer viewers would have flicked channels (people were waiting for the score for the last dancer…)
Adam @ 543
Absolute Gold! Talk about playing with his mind. Make a BIG policy announcement (not tax – let them wait) at the same time.
Are the taxpayer-funded Liberal Party ads still running?
553 ESJ
eh?
Talkback this morning hammered the opening bid in the vote auction and the talking point around the water cooler is that JWH doesn’t like the worm?
This fits in the “it’s not true just because you say it is” basket for sure. You might be right, but the only piece of data to discuss is the media monitors 4-1 statistic.
Evidence, evidence, evidence;
Substance, substance, substance
Credibility, credibility, credibility…..
Show’s on: I might caution you that the Advertiser doesn’t remove “undecided” or “no answer” from their primary vote percentages, so the primary vote number in their opinion poll is not directly comparable with the primary vote from the AEC in 2004.
[we’re not just too lenient -( let’s not forget the Fundies almost ended up witht he balance of power in country at the last election). We are plain ignorant.]
You are right.
I mean freedom of religion is important, and they can pray to whoever they want to, I couldn’t care less. But they have no right telling women in their organisation that they can’t finish school, or go to university.
They have no right telling children that they can’t contact their parents, if their parents leave the organisation. I thought Liberals were interested in basic human rights and freedoms. But it seems whatever religious organisations do is fine, so long as they are sympathetic to their political cause. Oh, and aren’t Islamic.
[ESJ, it’s a bit early to be “calling†the week so early – it is still Tuesday after all. ]
Good point 😛
Rudd and Co should from now on refer to Howard and Costello as Howard and his exclusive friends.
Who is on Lateline?
(If it’s Leigh Sayles talking to herself then I’ll watch)
Goodness me, Edward St J., you’re putting up a valiant effort, but you have to go and shore up the safe seats. There’s really no point in trying to convince most of us, though I certainly enjoy you contributions. I’ll, with your permission, bequeath you a special award for your efforts, either way, come the outcome. There you go, nice old mum, giving the wee boy a bit of encouragement.
ESJ @ 553 Bet the next major poll shows no change.
RE Lateline
I love the fact that they are talking about the scenario of what happens to the liberal party when JWH gets a bollocking at the election – it seems a bit
odd given that the campaign only started 2 days ago!
It was inevitable that whoever released a major bit of policy would get top billing for the next day or two.
I’m not sure how the Tax Cut went over with the masses – obviously there were some non-believers in it. There are probably a number of self-interested people out there willing to take a promise of $14 per week in exchange for a $100 per week pay cut when WorkChoices finds them, as it will.
People not interested in any issues or politics are driven by perception and TV/Radio/Paper headlines. Howard – big tax cuts – big deal. Must be good then. I wonder what percentage of the electorate are this type of person?
{Are the taxpayer-funded Liberal Party ads still running?}
No, the EB are going to fund them from now on, but the envelopes haven’t arrived from the US yet.
Re: the Advertiser poll.
I understand it is done by their phone room staff and supertvised by some academics (Dean Jaensch?)
In the late 80’s and early 90’s the Saulwick polls were conducted for The Age and SMH in much the same way. The polls were run out of The Age phone room.
Staff were trained by Irving Saulwick and the sampling and analysis conducted by The Age’s research staff who had significant hands-on experience with opinion polls.
My recollection is that their record was good.
Lose the election please – you have to be a Liberal stooge or just a very negative Labor supporter. The Labor campaign is just fine and Rudd is making the right decision re the debate. Howard is coming over as arrogant and desperate on this.
In fact the operation of The Age’s Saulwick polls was far more impressive than current polls. Because The Age’s phone room copuld cope with a large number of interviewers they could get 1000 interviews done in one night, process the data immediately and get a story out for the following day’s paper. I don’t think anyone is doing that now.
ESJ, declaring that the Libs have won the first week is a bit premature. Maybe that is a sign of hubris? No one I know have talked about how great the tax cuts are. Even my partner, who is a Lib voter, hasn’t said anything.
And if anything of the last few elections, you will note that the team who won the campaign lost the election. So by all means claim that Howard has won the campaign because that would make people think it would be okay to vote Labor since they would think others will be voting Libs and the who they really want in will still be elected.
Amazing stuff on Lateline. Picking over the splayed guts of the Howard Liberal Party. Stop laughing, this is bloody serious.
[The Age’s phone room copuld cope with a large number of interviewers they could get 1000 interviews done in one night, process the data immediately and get a story out for the following day’s paper. I don’t think anyone is doing that now.]
I guess the way the news paper business is now that would just be too expensive, hence they outsource it to specialised companies.
JWH has come out of the blocks strong.
KR has no policy agenda of his own
KR doesnt appear to have thought out what he actually disagrees with JWH on.
The rest of the week will be tax cuts and debates – score it a win for JWH.
What has the Labor party been doing for the last 3 years? It seems they thought WorkChoices would be the cool breeze that refreshes and have done no policy work whatsoever. Apart from cliche “education revolution” etc what do they actually want to do?
If KR is really is an economic conservative he will come out and say no tax cuts – I bet the Labor machine doesnt have the courage to do that. Risk free adverse types – as St PJK said “wouldnt get out of bed in the morning without taking an opinion poll”
Dont expect any change in Newspoll next week. If the Lib strategy works the wheels will start coming off KR in the last fortnight.
No-one has told me whether the government ads have stopped running or not.
As Mark points out, if Rudd doesn’t agree to the one debate on Howard’s terms, Howard reckons that he will “just turn-up and talk for 90 mins anyway.”
The problem, as I see it, is just who the hell would subject themselves to watching 90 minutes of televised bollocks from the old coot. He might be able to find enough rusted-on Libs in the old folk’s homes to turn-up, fill the hall and creak-ouit a few rounds of arthritic clapping when the sign blinks at ’em, but people at home will be reaching for the TV remotes in their millions.
I reckon Rudd should tell Howard and Sky to stuff it where the sun don’t shine.
It’s not like he needs the boost.
Knowing that BB & Scorpio are in QLD sorting things out warms the cockles of me ‘eart.
Mr. Howard needs the debate – desperately – he’s coming from so far behind. If he doesn’t have this time to directly demonstrate Mr. Rudd’s incompetence – when will he get it?
Kevin Rudd’s strongest policy is that he’s NOT John Howard.
587
Adam Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 11:14 pm
No-one has told me whether the government ads have stopped running or not.
Adam. if it’s any use, I haven’t seen any since Sunday night.
[ #587
Adam Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 11:14 pm
No-one has told me whether the government ads have stopped running or not.]
.
.
.
Haven’t seen a single one.
You can bet the Sky debate will be a set-up and from it you will get the next day’s headlines suitably inaccurate as Sky creatively edits bits and pieces to make Rudd look bad and Howard good.
It must be on live to air tv to guard against this sort of selective crap.
I agree, Rudd should go to Bennelong and have an open Q&A forum with Maxine and constituents – telecast on the net.
Coward and Yellow! Aaaoooooooooooo! I couldn’t resist.
If the Liberal party implodes, what about relaunching as the poultry party. Free pellets, and hay may lay some golden eggs. It’s not a new name, it’s not an old name but the right name
Evan @ 588 No we’ll all watch and have a field day!
[No-one has told me whether the government ads have stopped running or not.
Adam. if it’s any use, I haven’t seen any since Sunday night.]
After the opening burst, the Libs are probably saving their money for the last week.
[ What has the Labor party been doing for the last 3 years? ]
Edward,
They haven’t been doing much. Just convincing hundreds of thousands of Australians to vote Labor, that’s all.
591
Mark Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 11:19 pm
Kevin Rudd’s strongest policy is that he’s NOT John Howard.
And that will most probably be enough on its own to do the job this time.
Howard threatened to speak for 90 minutes if Rudd doesn’t show up for the debate.
Bring it on.
Kev should stay home and let the election camapign be over in and hour and a half.