• Hot on the heels of yesterday’s Galaxy poll of Queensland marginals, Michael McKenna in The Australian tells us the Liberals feel they might even be able to save Moreton, thus limiting the damage to Bonner. Intriguingly, Labor is said to have ‘virtually “written off”’ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman. Dickson is also said to be a bridge too far. Longman was one of the four seats surveyed in the Galaxy poll, suggesting it may have added Liberal ballast to the overall 51-49 result.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian discusses the electoral strategy behind the Coalition’s “three piece” tax cut, which consists of a low-income tax offset, a “fiddle to the threshold for the 30 per cent marginal tax rate” and cuts to the two top tax rates. The first is rated the most significant, being targeted at “the politically sensitive spot on the income ladder where the part-time working mother is most likely to be found” through a measure “not shared by higher income earners”. Megalogenis says no fewer than 18 Liberal-held marginals contain above-average numbers of the policy’s target market.
• Misha Schubert of The Age reports that Corio MP Gavan O’Connor, who has been dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, will announce on Thursday whether he plans to run as an independent. He is “tipped” to do so.
• Running through the Tasmanian seats, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reckons the Gunns pulp mill approval might benefit the Liberals not in Bass but in neighbouring Braddon, “Tasmania’s least green seat where many businesses will benefit from the project”.
• Typically bold predictions from Malcolm MacKerras in The Australian (not available online as far as I can see), who tips 89 seats for Labor, 59 for the Coalition and two independents. Bennelong and Wentworth are both on the casualty list.
[I think no matter what, Rudd will show up to the Sunday debate.]
Of course. This is what always happens. The opposition leader demands certain criteria. The P.M. rejects the criteria, then the opposition leader rocks up and does the debate however Howard wants it.
The most interesting change this time is the fact Howard wants the debate at parliament house, rather than at channel 9 studios. This is probably because he now doesn’t like Ray Martin because Martin agreed to host an ALP fundraiser.
It also meansn the room isn’t full of people who are anti-government. I don’t mean pro-ALP, but usually the default position of the studio audience is to oppose whoever is currently P.M.
Marky,
My goodness. The truth is there in front of your nose. There is more than enough evidence to form an opinion/judgement.
Or maybe you just want to rejoice in being a celebrity ignoramous.
Seems JWH has done a nice job on what George Herbert Walker Bush used to call the “mighty mo”.
JWH led with the tax policy, he is leading with the debate, what is it with these Labor guys they panic during election campaigns or what? Has anyone of them ever had a contested election?
Did Rudd, Swan or Gillard ever win an internal party ballot? Does anybody know? I seem to remember Beazley had never won a ballot?
Ernemy Combatant are you there? I have a special message for you.
Why do these debates have to be totally organised by Howard.. Rumour is David Spears is the moderator, though i am unsure as i have also heard that five people from the media will ask questions… But Howard like all debates has got generally what he wants… He is weak pr##k and has the gualle to suggest that the Opposition is weak and before him went around saying that Beazley has no ticker.. but will not debate.. I know it is a little trivial but more should be made of this weakness in character..
Marky Marky: I have to agree with you, if the idiots appearing on SBS’s Insight are typical of 18 year olds/first time voters, maybe we should be raising the voting age to 21. Some of the young blokes especially seemed to be as thick as two planks LOL
Exclusive Brethren: I don’t imagine News Ltd and Howard’s mate Shanahan will touch it, but this could be a problem for the Rodent if A Current Affair keeps focusing on the issue.
When is the next poll out?
Edward,
If you want to have any credibility to have to actually say something credible. Believe it or not.
Going by the reaction of people at work today the proposed tax cuts haven’t made a dent. People seem to still be turned off from what I can tell. Howard not breaking through.
Edward I think you may be overstating the importance of the debate. It doesn’t really matter. Look at Latham – he destroyed Howard in 2004 but a lot of good that did him. Is it really an issue that Howard is ‘leading’ or just being childish about? It’s only been what, one day, so it’s a pretty big call to say Labor is panicking.
Fall back plan for the ‘not so Great Debate’ – Mr. Howard can debate Mr. Costello. I’d watch.
Marky Marky, go to your room! Howard gives a personal, 2 hour audience to a group of raving religious nuts, including one concurrently under investigation by the AFP for giving illegal political donations to (guess who?) JWH, and this is ‘circumstantial evidence’. Many have been convicted on circumstantial evidence, and JWH has lots and lots of form. This has a powerful stench, just like children overboard and the AWB, and the ‘undeniable’ evidence of WMD. You are just making yourself look silly!
cheers,
Alan H
Probably so Growler.. but what do you hope to achieve with it… I say it again what terrible laws have they broken and is it worth going all the way on this. Hopefully Labor will do something about the group in Government.. and i think it is more important to focus on other issues than this, the election is about issues which put food on the table and this i am afriad does not. Also this country is somewhat religious and our leaders are this way inclined as well.. On the record i am an atheist…
Pi Says: @ 441;
I wonder what odds one could get with an online bookie on you being able to get that posted on Pier’s blog at the Terrorgraph?
ESJ, You are farting in the wind again. Which one is it today?
cheers,
Alan H
Andrew @ 449
Agree, sort of. Doesn’t it go to the old maxim: Never name your enemy. It gives them strength.
Yes, some military.
[Why do these debates have to be totally organised by Howard]
Because Australian voters let whoever is P.M. get away with setting the terms of the debate.
Thankfully if Rudd wins the election then a independent body will be set up to determine rules of the debates well in advance (you could just let the AEC do it). And there will be more than 1, most likely 3.
Oh its Dr Plagiarism from Seattle. How are we tonight Alan H? We’ve been waiting for your devastating expose!!!
Piers is not a keen fan of wiki. He made a comment recently about the intellect of people who use this as a reference place and after reading his page now i know why…..hahahahahaha
You really believe that ShowsOn? Time will tell…
Edward,
39 days until 39 plus seats change hands?
392
Adam Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 6:42 pm
Oh dear what has Cousins done now?
They found Marijuana party HTV cards under the front seat and a cash envelope from the EB marked ‘Dear John, enjoy the boiled lollies’.
Alan H yep i am silly but Howard and his cohorts have done it time and again.. and got away with it. How do you ask.. blaming others and putting the clamps on the bureaucracy with certain laws and veiled threats regarding jobs.. I do not for one moment disbelieve that this Government is probably got away with a number of things in government… Children Overboard, after reading David Marr’s book on this i was absolutely appalled.. Iraq War again, and the Exclusive Brethren the same sneaky tricks again..
But it is time you recognised what this mob concentrates on and its the mind of average P.A.Y.E apathetic voter who does not give a fig about such issues whilst you and i do everyone else doesn’t.
The aim here Alan should be get rid of the government and then put in place policies or measures that such things can never happen again…
But i am silly…
Howard said this evening, I think on the Channel 9 News, that if he has to he will do the debate by himself.
It would be a gracious act of Kevin Rudd if he fulfilled Howard’s wish and let him.
[You really believe that ShowsOn? Time will tell…]
Yes I do. I’m not completely cynical yet.
Re: debate.
Howard is saying that he will just turn-up and talk for 90 mins anyway.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/16/2061290.htm
I guess that would make for riveting viewing.
Howrd is being a bully and trying to desperately seize the agenda. If he keeps this up for another 5 weeks he’ll be a certifiable phsychopath.
Later, ESJ, in extreme detail. We’ll do Johnny first, then you, and Glen, and Annie, and Nostradamus, and Snoopy, and Macca from Ipswich, and, and, and. It’s truly fascinating. In the meantime, fart on, please.
cheers,
Alan H
There will only be one debate. Howard won’t back down and nothing can make him. However it would be interesting if Rudd didn’t show.
I forgot Steven Kaye! He got one initial in common with you ESJ. Is that a clue?
cheers,
Alan H
[There will only be one debate. Howard won’t back down and nothing can make him. However it would be interesting if Rudd didn’t show.]
Rudd could offer to debate the minor parties. This would have two benefits:
1) He would look completely reasonable compared to the policies of the minors.
2) It would probably force Howard to turn up as well, thus turning it into a 2nd prospective P.M. debate.
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/…………………This is the “worm” on Sunday night when Howard speaks,then Rudd, Howard, Rudd etc etc
[I forgot Steven Kaye! He got one initial in common with you ESJ. Is that a clue?]
I’m pretty sure he is banned.
Shows on i hope Rudd initiates such change.. because in 1996 Howard dictated the debates, Keating to stand their with Ray and answer, how much is a bottle of milk and a loaf bread, riveting stuff,.. and not the Leader of the country…
Wormless PM may debate alone
Thats where he will be after this election “ALONE”.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22596469-2,00.html
Rudd is standing his ground on getting a level of control over the flow of this election campaign.
I hope he refuses to debate Mr Howard just once and rolls out his Tax policy when it suits him as he said today under pressure from Mr. Costello.
Looks like someone trained him recently to stop licking the left corner of his mouth between lines when he speaks; that was an annoying habit I hope he is getting over quickly.
Im still concerned about the ‘I will’ presidential discourse: abit more of the ‘we’ would go down better.
Noted Mr Costello out there on the hustings shadowing Mr. Howard all day today. I am looking forward to the rebirth of the Labor advertising drawing attention to the Howard-Costello transition plan if that is going to dampen their attack on the Labor brand ‘team’ [union hacks, etc].
Meantime, I remain extremely sceptical of the very recent spate of ‘polls’ suggesting no more than a 1-2 Labor gain in Queensland, but if it makes Labor supporters up here work harder throughout the campaign period I will keep my complaints to myself.
[\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/…………………This is the “worm†on Sunday night when Howard speaks,then Rudd, Howard, Rudd etc etc]
Channel 9 should use the worm. Why the hell do they need prime ministerial permission to put a graphic on the screen?
If they pay for their TV license, and comply with the broadcast code, then why should any prime minister be able to tell them what they can and can’t put on TV?
If 9 don’t use it then they are just gutless.
My guess is they will replay some excerpts at the end with the worm, but won’t show it live. I think that’s what they did in 2004.
Is it just me or does Kevin Rudd come across as snooty and with a severe case of small man syndrome in his reply to the govt.’s “attack” ad?
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The worm’s progress if Rudd doesn’t show and Howard debates himself.
[Shows on i hope Rudd initiates such change.. because in 1996 Howard dictated the debates, Keating to stand their with Ray and answer, how much is a bottle of milk and a loaf bread, riveting stuff,.. and not the Leader of the country…]
I think he will do it. I don’t think he is just opportunistically saying he will.
I think Rudd realises that the debate about the debate just makes politicians in general look stupid. It doesn’t help one side or the other.
We should also be able to have a Head of State who isn’t from the Church of England. But that’s a reform for a later day… 😛
Guys Kevin Rudd is not going to be bullied. He will always appeal to reason.
There’s Johnny and co. all huffing and puffing, and there is Kevin, the diplomat, saying “now let’s be reasonable about this. I think it is how he comes across. He is sensible and smart. There will be no debate unless JWH sees reason.
Michael Mr Rudd is too much of a nerd to be “snooty”.
The debate to me does not mean much unless their is one in the last week, like the debate in 1993 which screwed Hewson.
If people voted according to the debate than Howard would have lost in 1998 because he has not won a debate that i recall since being in Government.
Really it should not be held next Sunday but when all the policies are out, and this would probably be in the last week…
I’m in Bennelong, and just had my Maxine sign in my front yard replaced for the third time, after being graffiti’d. A number of other signs in the electorate have been similarly decorated with the same paint.
I asked the guy replacing the sign if they had any intelligence on the defacements. He said they thought the brethren were doing it – there’s quite a few of them around here.
This is just hearsay, though. Anyone else heard of anything like this?
He’s out on a limb. It’s a long drop. Confusion. What does he do? He can’t tear his hair out … what’s left to do? If he has one decent bone left in his body …
No, he will whinge and bleat his way to the end. Sad, really.
[The debate to me does not mean much unless their is one in the last week, like the debate in 1993 which screwed Hewson.]
I think that is why Howard always wants one, and at the end of the first campaign week. He knows he isn’t the best at them, if it is in the first week he can put it behind him once he doesn’t do so well at it.
Bluebottle #483, I think you are on the money with Rudd’s demeanor and tactics. Are sure about QLD though?
If you haven’t already done so check out the pendulum at the Oz. The view of the new parliament based on the polls is a sea of red.
http://uvote.coredata.com.au/
[If you haven’t already done so check out the pendulum at the Oz. The view of the new parliament based on the polls is a sea of red.
http://uvote.coredata.com.au/ ]
The Liberals are fighting back though. Last night the opposition was The Greens, with half a dozen or so Liberal back benchers! 😛
And yes, Sid Marris today wrote an article on these poll results. Why, I have no idea.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22595366-5013871,00.html
Is 12 enough to fill the seats on the opposition front bench?
As a Labor supporter i tend to agree that Rudd has been looking a bit smug… I thought even though he came across well on 7.30 report last night he did have a bit of a look that said look “I’ve already won face”…
Nonetheless it is all a bit trivial…
Marky I agree that the debate, or at least one of them, should be held a week out from the poll when the contenders have put their major policy positions on the table.
This begs the question of why Mr. Howard wants one debate and a week in instead ? Must be more too it that the view that people will forget the debate by the time the election day comes IF Mr. Howard gets creamed again.
{I asked the guy replacing the sign if they had any intelligence on the defacement’s. He said they thought the brethren were doing it – there’s quite a few of them around here.}
Remember the incident with Maxine’s car earlier in the year.
Also, someone provided a video link a while back which showed Howard being escorted through a market by a group of EB thugs providing security.
They were so hard faced they made the “Union thugs” in the Govt Workchoices commercial look like pussycats.
They’re out and about in Bennalong all right and desperate to see their one chosen by god, get re-elected.