D-day minus 39

• Hot on the heels of yesterday’s Galaxy poll of Queensland marginals, Michael McKenna in The Australian tells us the Liberals feel they might even be able to save Moreton, thus limiting the damage to Bonner. Intriguingly, Labor is said to have ‘virtually “written off”’ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman. Dickson is also said to be a bridge too far. Longman was one of the four seats surveyed in the Galaxy poll, suggesting it may have added Liberal ballast to the overall 51-49 result.

• George Megalogenis of The Australian discusses the electoral strategy behind the Coalition’s “three piece” tax cut, which consists of a low-income tax offset, a “fiddle to the threshold for the 30 per cent marginal tax rate” and cuts to the two top tax rates. The first is rated the most significant, being targeted at “the politically sensitive spot on the income ladder where the part-time working mother is most likely to be found” through a measure “not shared by higher income earners”. Megalogenis says no fewer than 18 Liberal-held marginals contain above-average numbers of the policy’s target market.

• Misha Schubert of The Age reports that Corio MP Gavan O’Connor, who has been dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, will announce on Thursday whether he plans to run as an independent. He is “tipped” to do so.

• Running through the Tasmanian seats, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reckons the Gunns pulp mill approval might benefit the Liberals not in Bass but in neighbouring Braddon, “Tasmania’s least green seat where many businesses will benefit from the project”.

• Typically bold predictions from Malcolm MacKerras in The Australian (not available online as far as I can see), who tips 89 seats for Labor, 59 for the Coalition and two independents. Bennelong and Wentworth are both on the casualty list.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

648 comments on “D-day minus 39”

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  1. They did the Exclusive Brethren on Current Affair. Half of it was the 4 Corners stuff redone. But they were calling for more stories on them from viewers. It tied the Liberals in with them nicely.

  3. [They did the Exclusive Brethren on Current Affair. Half of it was the 4 Corners stuff redone. But they were calling for more stories on them from viewers. It tied the Liberals in with them nicely.]

    Excellent. I’m sure a lot more watched that than the 4 corners piece (unfortunately).

  5. Adam

    All young people are awful. They have pimples and things in their ears and worry about their hair. They dart about on footpaths, with complete disregard to the rules of right-of-way. Keep left, you little buggers …

  6. I’d completely forgotten what an authoritative source wikipedia is……………….it is just checkout Piers Akermans page 🙂

  7. I can’t understand why the Rodent, Costello and other senior Liberals meeting with the Exclusive Brethren is not covered by the media with the same gravity as Rudd’s meetings with Brian Burke. Members of the Brethren have been associated with child sex allegations, there is the suggestion of misdoings in the last election, and they are called family wreckers by the disfellowshipped.

    The Liberals have not just met with them, but taken their money, even written laws specifically for them (exemptions in the WorkChoices laws).

    Why is this not a noisy scandal?

  8. Adam writes at post379: “I’m not sure whether Young Lib sleazes or Young Labor fanatics are worse, but they are all awful in their different ways.”

    Too true.

    Young Labor are generally a bunch of pimply-faced nerds who excell at crunching numbers and stacking meetings, all in the cause of doing-over the Left. Full of angst, froth and political malevolence, they’re possessed of a penchant for plotting that would reduce the Borgias, by way of comparison, to rank amateur status.

    As for the Young Libs, they’re a bunch of Hooray Henrys, all Gekko-slick-back and aftershave, given to poncing around in Daddy’s Bentley trying to pick-up chicks in Double Bay and whose idea of a top jape is diddling the ATO out of a few bucks on the annual Trust Account return, while lecturing the rest of us on the value of hard work. On the rare occasion that they do think, it’s usually about money.

    As for the Young Greens, don’t even ask.

  9. # 407 Rx ..Why is this not a noisy scandal?

    Meh, maybe Piers will run with it not that his Heiner scandal has blown up in his face LOL.

  15. @ Evan 408 — an EXCELLENT and true description of both “young” groupings! Ah, good to be a young Liberal but not a Young Liberal (again with capitalisation making all the difference).

  16. “Amber Dekstris Says:
    Crispy 5.57
    Who reckons Rudd picked five major policy areas because he doesn’t have six fingers?”

    Amber, be thankful he doesn’t have eleven major policy areas. 😉

  17. It might be relevant now because it casts negative perceptions on the ALP. However, I believe the ALP won 1 or 2 elections after the 17% interest rates, so I’d argue it was never a huge vote driver in itself back in the day. Also, once the ALP return to government everyone will see interest rates aren’t going to soar to 17% and it’ll become completely irrelevant.

    During the 80s and 90s polling indicated people trusted the ALP more on rates, due to Howard’s bad stint as Treasurer. Keating warned that if we elected Howard all the economic gains made under him would just go away. They didn’t. Nor will they now.

  18. Well C-Woo, it shouldn’t be relevant – but Labor’s awful strategy in 2004 meant that it has lingered.

    It’s simple enough to counter on two fronts – firstly, Howard had the 90 day bill rate at 22% back in 1982 with double digit inflation AND double digit unemployment.

    Secondly, in terms of relativities, mortgage holders are very close to paying as high a percentage of their income today with rates at 6.5% than they did in 1989 at 17.5%.

    I don’t know why Labor hasn’t attacked more on this point. I suppose they reason that it will only serve to remind older voters of the recession and reinforce the Coalition’s lead in economic management scores.

    But in practical terms, many voters under 30 simply don’t remember the period in monetary terms. Personally, I remember the Peacock coup and Peter Shack’s embarrassing press conference about the health policy in much greater detail than interest rates…

  19. For those who missed it before.

    {Two senior elders of the Exclusive Brethren sect have gained permanent access to Federal Parliament, as lobbyists, under the sponsorship of two Howard Government MPs.

    The Age has discovered that Sydney-based elders Stephen Hales and Warwick John were issued lobbyists’ passes after being vouched for by former minister Danna Vale and the member for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, Michael Ferguson.

    Mr Hales, a Sydney businessman, is the brother of Bruce D. Hales, who leads the world-wide sect of 40,000 devotees.

    The Age has also confirmed the church has retained Liberal-connected public relations firm Jackson Wells Morris to provide them with political advice and deal with “hostile media”.

    A Four Corners report on ABC TV tonight will reveal further details of the secretive religious sect’s attempts, since 2004, to secure the election of conservative politicians world-wide – including massive flows of money, advertising and phone canvassing.}

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/two-mps-sponsor-brethren-lobbyists/2007/10/14/1192300599891.html

  24. The 17% interest rates are a load of crud, existing variable loans were capped at 13%.

    Most people were on fixed interest rate mortgages.

    Interest rates are much more of an issue now, than under Keating.

  26. Well the tax stuff has basically washed out of the press already as interest has waned. Rudd has been excellent in rebutting Custard’s shrill cries to respond and has got his message across as he is no longer being pressured for quick answers.

    All in all, much to do about nothing and the “big plan” tax soufflé has gone flat already.

    Now, if only Rudd stands firm by standing Howard up at his debate I’ll consider this a very good day indeed.

  27. This is a sample of one of the better posts.

    {What I found entertaining about the show,was watching a number of people interviewed who were picking and choosing their words so carefully (so as to be seen to not be lying) that it was almost like watching it in slow motion.

    I have to also include our Lib pollies here, in that although they chose their words very carefully to avoid answering the questions put to them, they at least had had a lot more practice and were able to pull it off somewhat quicker.

    I can’t believe the arrant nonsense I have read here from our resident Howard sycophants defending senior Coalition Members meeting covertly with people with an agenda contrary to the greater majority of Australians.

    The fact that Howard and Co can meet with these people who are under investigation for committing a range of criminal offences both here and Internationally,is I find, totally abhorrent.

    And Howard won’t give the same consideration to meeting with leaders of the mainstream establishment churches including the head of the Aust Council of Churches who represent many millions of Australians, beggars belief.

    Strong questions must be asked by all right minded Australians and answers forthcoming. }

  28. Luxuy yachet: A Mago is code for torpeado anhd severlas of sticking limpets and mussellls ////////plus havings of rubber divers tautoluglogies thes bein have traings in such ops. By golly, be not have thoiughting of such misdemenors here … // best to have settin g of sail for those partns that have cold behavoriors

  31. The Exclusive Brethren issue is going to grow legs and take on a life of its own: we haven’t heard the last of it.

    Schadenfreude is a sweet wine which is best enjoyed slowly.

  32. the Exclusive Brethren story linking them to Howard and Costello was seen by over 1 Million plus people on 4 Corners and then again by a completely different 1 Million plus people tonight on ACA.

    4 Corners last night rated particularly well at 1.1 Million. ACA usually gets abot 1.2 Million each night.

    I would suggest they would attract vastly different audiences too, so probably 2 Million different viewers saw the links between this sect and Howard and Costello.

  33. This whole EB episode is like a giant boil that needs immediate lancing and the rotten, infected, detrius beneath squeezed out and the wound exposed to the cleansing effect of total public scrutiny.

  35. Today has been a nothing day for both sides.
    Currently watching SBS show on young voters in the seat of Moreton. Some of the young people in this seat worry me.. most seem apathetic and unsure and seem in the seat of Moreton not to be affected by workchoices.. The economy again seems the issue. People here seem undecided, again i think the last week will be crucial, especially the last two days. The media in recent years, especially Murdoch have been biased in these last two days.
    I hope Labor does not “me to” on taxes, it would be better to offer spending increases in health and universities and on climate change.
    Climate change will be the big issue in the years ahead, and just on tax, Kenneth Davidson in The Age yesterday shows certain tax measures which should be looked at regarding climate change, but will any party have the courage to do something regarding this i doubt it…

  36. [Yikes, the EB are total weirdo’s, mr & mrs average will not be impressed with their association to Howie and Custard.]

    Well I HOPE it makes a difference because I don’t think extremist organisations of this sort have any role to play in politics.

    However, if the media were going to ask Costello or Howard about it, it would’ve been today, straight after the 4 Corners report. The fact they didn’t suggests to me that this story will sink within a few days.

    I imagine the exclusive brethren will be campaigning the same as last year, especailly in Bennelong.

  39. [Shows on, the Brethren issue, will be a nothing issue and the four corners show was all just fairy floss without sugar.. no evidence on Howard just circumstantial dross…]

    I agree that the story will fade away. However I disagree that it didn’t contain any implications for Howard.

    He should distance himself from the organisation immediately, because it is highly likely that it has broken electoral law. This is because some of the political adverts were placed by a religious school, which counts as a charity organisation. It is illegal for charities to book election advertising.

    I am not saying Howard asked them to do this. I am simply suggesting that Howard shouldn’t accept supportive adverts from organisations that are suspected of breaking electoral laws.

  41. The Piers Ackerman wiki site is gold…

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Akerman

    Piers Akerman wrote a number of articles during the past few weeks. In an article on 10 August he stated: “As for the notion that junkies, if given free smack, will be able to hold down a regular job – what a joke!” [But] It has been proved that they have done so. In another article on 24 August he wrote: “Small wonder then Mr Howard’s decision to derail the ACT’s unscientific free heroin handout was attacked by apologists for drug addicts and pushers.” On and on he goes, attacking it. In an article on 27 July he said: “Society itself has to re-enforce the no-drugs message and make it harder for the drug merchants to survive.” The joke is that Piers Akerman, when he lived in Albion Street in the 1970s, used LSD and marijuana regularly. He also used cocaine regularly when he was in the United States of America, in Los Angeles and Washington. I have spoken to someone who shared a number of cocaine lines with Piers Akerman. He was a drug addict. He also sexually harassed young female employees of News Limited in Washington and was sent back to the United Kingdom, where he tried to become the editor of the London Times but was denied that. He tried to get a job recently with the Sydney Morning Herald but was denied that, too. Here we have this hypocrite who is working hard to oppose what would have been a very useful reform in the drug fight in this country and now he is working against the interests of the community by torpedoing that. He himself was a drug addict and he still is a drug addict on legal drugs to this very day.[5] ”

    — The Hon. R. S. L. Jones, NSW Parliament Hansard, 1997

    Paddington Piers comes from a traditional left wing family with a deep concern for refugees and multiculturalism. His brother Kim is one of Australia’s leading experts in Aboriginal culture, history and social justice. As a young man, Piers Akerman was a Maoist who signed up to the Association for International Cooperation and Disarmament and denounced the Vietnam War as `one of the most obscene crimes of the 20th century’. Today, of course, he is the ultimate chicken-hawk: someone who did not want to go to war himself but now urges war for young Australians in Iraq.

    Akerman then turned on his family, his own flesh and blood, to seek the embrace and encouragement of the other side of politics. He wanted to prove himself by winning the support of those who are least likely to approve of someone called Akerman. …. I note the comments of my colleague the member for Wills in October 1997 in this place, when he said: “I too have been aware for some years of reliable reports that Piers Akerman was a cocaine user—and much more recently than the 1970s. The copy kids who worked at News Ltd in Sydney in the mid-1980s could hear him in the toilet at 9 p.m. snorting cocaine while he was working on the Australian and he used to reminisce at the local pub about his drug-hazed days in the US.” …. I would congratulate News Ltd for giving a drug addict a second chance in life. …. Akerman is not a commentator; he is a de facto press secretary for the Howard government. …. Paddington Piers, for instance, was an integral part of the government’s slur campaign against Justice Michael Kirby.
    ”

    — Mark Latham, Member for Werriwa, ALP, Hansard of the Australian Parliament

  42. LTEP, I doubt a limited ban on publication of polls would offend any implied constitutional freedom. The activist high court accepted the principle of blackouts on electronic ads in the final 3 days of the campaign; the literalist and parliamentary sovereignty junkies who rule the current court would care even less to strike down laws by appealing to an invented implications that aren’t even respected in some countries with explicit ‘free speech’ charters.

    Also there’s distinguishing legal reasons: opinion polls aren’t a form of political communication. At best they are a form of indirect pressure on representative govt, but in a campaign the govt is in caretaker mode anyway. As for online polls, they are so rigged and skewed as to be misleading and hence be inherently regulable.

    I wasn’t saying ban opinion polls in the campaign – though many countries do so. The best reasons against a ban would be (1) insiders would still leak party polling with the usual spin/deceit attached, and (2) problems of enforceability (polls could be published offshore via internet). Oh and a ban would be cruel and unusual punishment for junkies on sites like this.

  43. Greensborough Growler- i don’t disagree that the Howard Government is probably involved with this extremist right wing group… but before you can exclusively go around stating such claims you need hard evidence and unfortunately as usual with this “sneaky” Howard Government we don’t have the evidence.

  45. Pi where are the politicians who make such comments now… who attack these “nutters” … I liked Latham because he spoke his mind and was typical larrikin Australian in the mould of a Keating… and he was at least willing to not be a Murdoch yes man which we will have with Rudd…

  47. Howard, Costello and Exclusive Brethren, guilt by association, sounds similar to the Dr Haneef case.

    “Live by the sword die by the sword”.

  49. ruawake @ 437

    ex-military? We were delivered the same sermon – you don’t have to respect the person, but you must respect the rank.

    So no it isn’t John Howard and Peter Costello, rather it’s the Prime Minister and the Treasurer…

    … but I must admit I like the Lame Duck and the Chicken so much better.

  50. I think no matter what, Rudd will show up to the Sunday debate. Better to embarrass Howard once on national TV than none at all? Why doesn’t Rudd just announce his tax policy at the debate and catch the rodent completely off guard.

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