After 30 seconds of joy for Coalition supporters, Newspoll comes along a day early to rain on the parade. It shows no change whatsoever from a fortnight ago: Labor ahead 56-44 on two-party preferred, with a primary vote of 48 per cent to the Coalition’s 39 per cent. A small amount of solace might be taken from a 3 per cent increase in the Prime Minister’s remarkably resilient approval rating, now up to 47 per cent, and a rise in dissatisfaction with Kevin Rudd from 20 per cent to 24 per cent. However, both Howard and Rudd are up 1 per cent on preferred prime minister, with Kevin Rudd leading 48 per cent to 39 per cent.
Plaudits to James J for somehow finding the graphic before The Australian put its coverage online.
Shows on
Donate to wind farms? That doesn’t sound like a reliable investment structure.
I still think labor should not follow similar tax cuts and create their own fiscal certainty. 1% of GDP is even less when the boom stops. Rudd can steal the march on Howard and it has been handed on a plate.
Whatever the merits of the tax cuts, the one thing that they have done is delivered Day 1 of the campaign to the government (unless Labor announces something later on – looks unlikely atm).
I’m assuming this is all part of the Coalition’s tactics to get some sort of momentum in the campaign – they’ve spent the last 6 months talking about “The Narrowing” happening once the election had been called – if it didn’t happen, any cause of optimism they had would be gone and the stench of the inevitability of defeat would start to hang around them.
Why not wind farms.. and solar energy, Australia has to wake up and realise coal is not the answer and that world is hotting up… and we as a country must lead by example.. We have the land resources and wind and sun good investment strategy to me for the future instead of greedy handouts to the wealthy with tax cuts…
The slanging match on online blogs has become more nasty and vitriolic against Rudd since the election has been called (the news limited ones in particular). I am somewhat taken aback by their venom. Although I am not surprised if Lib staffers or Young Libs are doing this: there is a lot at stake if they lose. As someone pointed out earlier in the year, Campbell Newman will be the highest-ranked Liberal in office anywhere! Not only that, but wallowing in irrelevancy for at least two terms must be too beastly for them to contemplate. They just look at their state oppositions to realise the implications of defeat.
But one has to admit: the use of “Krudd”, “twerp” etc etc is a little childish. The rusted-ons that do this sound so whiny at the prospect of a Labor government.
SL @ 352 – I read a similar analysis on Possum’s site – I think it’s right. I mean, after months of “wait for the polls to narrow come the election”, if it didn’t happen, what would they be left with?
Is there any ongoing coverage of the press conference? From reading a number of sites it seems the press asked some pretty cynical questions. Any word on what the question was which Michelle Grattan asked and left Howard and Costello quiet for about 15 seconds before they answered it?
The campaign worries me as a Labor supporter.. because the Labor party has alot of dills amongst its campaign team… Unfortunately the headlines in the papers tomorrow will 34 billion tax handback or something similar and the hard earned will like it…
Don’t like such superficial grab bags but it works and our media laps it up…
Swing Lowe
I agree the Coalition have started with a bang on day one, a $34 billion “3 year plan and two year goal”.
They need momentum sure, but they have they used their heavy artillery too soon?
They have resurrected the interest rate “bogey” on day one. Which focuses on “who do you trust” this cuts deep with people who are stuggling.
Huge election bribe on Day 1 to prime the pump of The Narrowing. There’ll be some nervous nellies awaiting the following opinion polling. And if the polling doesn’t oblige…
IMHO, if the data says rates should rise, the RBA will have no choice, much as they might like to avoid the political fray. If they were seen to be avoiding a change in policy for political reasons, they could kiss goodbye to 20 years of hard work building their inflation-fighting credentials.
6 week campaign – the LNP wants to force the Labor’s tax policy out so it wont have so much effect closer to election day.
In 1 week this policy will be mostly forgotten – people will remember the promise of some future tax cut. In 5 weeks time? AND if economists start coming out with cries of inflation, interest rate etc…then leave them clear air.
The Govt has gone for a jolt to get a narrowing and hope to flush out Labor. Labor needs to create a little bit of noise on something else and get some air time.
If they are smart they can agree with the concept and criticise the implementation.
I know what Glen Stevens has said, and I know the economy is going along very strongly and I maintain my position. As I said earlier, a bold prediction…
Seriously though, I don’t dispute that in normal circumstances a rate rise could well be justified (depending on CPI data). I just think that the RBA board is going to be circumspect for a bit longer about the possibility of an economic downturn due to the US subprime problems.
[Whatever the merits of the tax cuts, the one thing that they have done is delivered Day 1 of the campaign to the government ]
Sure, but if you can’t win on the day you release tax cuts, then it is doubtful you’ll win the election.
G’day all
I am currently living in rural China a world away from the politics of my homeland but it is interesting to see how the foreign media cover something like the Federal Election. I was watching Channel News Asia yesterday (Singapore sattelite TV channel) and the Aussie election was the lead story. It mentioned the huge poll lead to Kev but the reporter said the main reason why the Libs are so far behind in the polls was due to the War in Iraq. Sure the Iraqi war is bloody unpopular but I certainly wouldn’t say it is the reason that the Rodent is on the skids.
Kina. Anybody who remotely understands a Linux partition or in fact what it is… has my ear. I hope your right. lol
DLP @ 232,
If the 1998 State 2PP swings to the ALP were repeated this year, then the ALP will gain 77 seats compared to the 71 for the Coalition and 2 Independents.
The following ALP gains would be:
NSW: Page, Eden-Monaro, Wentworth, Lindsay, Parramatta
QLD: Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert, Longman
SA: Wakefield, Kingston, Makin
TAS: Bass, Braddon
WA: Stirling, Hasluck
Interestingly, Bennelong under that scenario will be the Coalition’s most marginal seat (requiring a 0.03% swing for the ALP to win).
Ruawake,
I’m sure this is just round 1 of the Coalition’s spending programme – expect much more at their official campaign launch.
Having said that, yes, it is unusual for them to launch such massive tax cuts so early in the campaign. As has been said on this blog before, it means that these cuts will probably be forgotten well before the end of the campaign. As such, it probably isn’t the sort of theme that will dominate the election campaign – unless Labor makes a real hash of their tax policy (fingers crossed that they don’t!)
And yes, Amber, I am wondering what the Libs will do if there isn’t a narrowing in the polls – I would love to see Abbott & Downer try to weasel their way through that one (would they attempt to blame the MSM for not paying enough attention in their criticisms of Rudd?)
Sinic @ 354
Those sort of comments by young Liberals simply don’t help their cause and in fact might disgust people and send them to Labor. Anyone making a comment on the blogs has probably made their mind up anyway, so they are wasting their time. Even the subtle ones are easy to pick out.
There is still 41 days to go, a long time to keep singing the same song and its going to be difficult to sell tax cuts after a potential rate rise with every third economist talking about their inflationary impact – particularly when their second line of attack is ‘we keep wages low with Workchoices’
I’m sure the govt will keep flogging the ‘where is your tax policy’ line until Labor comes out with theirs, but I really do wonder if they would be better sitting and waiting until more information becomes available.
I must say I did a quick mental calculation of what I would get out of it, its tempting…… 🙂 But my high moral principles make me resist – I’d rather Labor came up with a better way of spending my money….
G’Day all
In my opinion, I think the Libs have drastically mistimed this announcement.
Three things tell me that:
1. Before the interest rate decision Nov 6
2. Too soon, they might look desparate
3. Leaving Labor with enough time to tweak their tax policy so that they can trump them.
I was worried from a Labor perspective that people would have dollar signs in their eyes when they heard this. But Labor do have time to get themselves into gear.
Interest rates going up could really hurt the Libs and undermine any credibility on tax relief.
Have tax cuts worked in previous campaigns?
I think it is a tactical blunder from the Libs announcing it now. Sure, it gets the discussion on their turf (economic management), but how long is it until it shifts away?
They’ve used their big guns to early, and they may run out of ammo.
I think the electorate is just plain cynical about whatever the govt does. That is shown clearly in Galaxy, where 58% said the Aboriginal intervention was due to the election, and in the last Galaxy 49% said Howard was out of touch and motivated by self-interest. People now simply don’t believe whatever the govt says.
The press’ response really exposes their hypocrisy. Can you imagine the headlines if Labor released this craven bribe “economic vandalism’ ’38 billion dollar fiscal conservative’ etc etc. Yet they’re the same press that bombard us daily with notions of fiscal probity, the pain of high interest rates, the lack of infrastructure investment, the shamefull state of public hospitals and roads etc. I’m contemplating an MSM blackout during this campaign.
Which won’t be such a bad thing as it helps puts focus on the big day of their release. The long anticipate [thanks to LNP carping] tax policy – will give extra effect.
Labor needs to bring out something today or tomorrow if they can that deflects attention away from this – to create noise and thus lessen any effect. I wonder if they have a grab-bag of special hand grenades to let off at these times?
The polls are going to drive every one crazy – they will be up and down like a yoyo and outliers will drive people nuts as well.
Maybe Sir Eggo.. But what happens if Interest Rates don’t rise…
John Quiggin on ‘Fistful of Dollars11
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2007/10/15/fistful-of-dollars-ii/#more-3735
Kina @ 372,
I agree with you in that Labor needs to say something that distracts attention from this – but they should do it tomorrow, as there’s probably nothing they could do today that will distract attention from the tax cuts. I have to say I’m a bit disappointed about Labor’s lethargic start to this campaign – I guess they were a bit stuffed today once the tax cuts were announced, tho…
On a related point, does anyone know when the next poll is expected? Are any expected tomorrow?
Sean you are absolutely spot on..
Looking after the main supporters of the government the rich advertisers who advertise in the media. Also the media want a close election as it helps sell more newspapers and gives greater coverage to rich advertisers…
This is the first of a few big broadsides, but wait for the real killer at the end of the election if they’re still way behind and looking at defeat. They will have their ‘dooms day’ policy waiting in the wings if need be. It will appeal to voters, and it will be so late in the piece it won’t get any real scrutiny. Afterwards, they will find ‘economic conditions’ have changed and they won’t be able to implement it.
Will be interesting to see if they get momentum out of this, if not it’s going to be a very messy campaign.
The thought of Howard playing chicken with the Reserve Bank while accusing Rudd of high risk behaviour is pure gold.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/pm-plays-chicken-with-reserve-board/2007/10/14/1192300601527.html
Marky Marky 373
If rates don’t go up, then it will be up to Labor at least neutralise this potential vote winner with a good policy (don’t stuff it up fellas).
Truthfully, the tax policy is the thing that worries me the most. If Labor stuff it up, the whole thing can go pear shaped. I have memories of a Labor policy in the last campaign where families were worse off over a month, but better off over a year…. how the hell they did that I’m still trying to work out
I think this is the only thing that derail Labor in the campaign. I can’t see anything else pulling Labor back.
BTW, the poll on SMH is saying that instead of tax cuts, it should be spent on hospitals. But I know you take those polls with a pinch of salt.
Burgey @ 355
Yeah, what’s that about? Fifteen seconds of silence is a long time on TV. Speculation: Do you love and trust each other?
Labor could do far worse than “me too” this policy. It would neutralise it in an instant.
Sir Eggo.. guess who was responsible for that tax policy.. guess Wayne Swan.. and he is still in that position..
But i agree i can’t see Labor being beaten.. but stranger things do happen.
Labor may like 1998 get more votes but not enough seats… Nevertheless this is only day one and their is a long way to go…
This after all is the problem with “small target” a la 1998. You get into the mindset that everything is a risk.
I think KR is going to look like Sir Echo if he tries to match this, will he have the courage not to ….. Given the intellectual bankruptcy of the Labor campaign I doubt it.
In football parlance it is ironic that it is JWH who is throwing the ball around with the tax cuts. I guess given the polls he has to. Dont assume this is only shot in the locker – I suspect he will have something for the last fortnight – no doubt big mortgage concessions too.
You can see JWH’s theme developing nicely – I’ve given you lots of goodies in the last ten years, but there are even better and tastier ones just around the corner if you re-elect me. Do you really want to miss out on the goodies and go with KR ? There will be all sorts of blandishments and temptations to move the roughly 3% that is needed to move. It will be an interesting test of the electorate and its resolve.
Marky Marky 382
Why do you think I’m worried!? They stuffed it last time
Surely they have learnt from their mistakes and actually checked their maths!
Gary that would be silly… don’t say things if you cannot keep the promises, it could ruin all of Labor’s campaign policy agenda.
ESJ – You’re not worried he’s gone too hard too soon?
[John Quiggin on ‘Fistful of Dollars11
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2007/10/15/fistful-of-dollars-ii/#more-3735%5D
Quiggin points out that $34 billion over the next 5 years is now the upper spending limit for the election. If Labor promises the same, or more likely less, the coalition can’t complain, else they will be open to attacks of hypocrisy.
My guess is Rudd will announce tax cuts half the size, but big boosts to education and child care.
Yeh, Labor’s tax policy will be their first big test of the campaign. If they don’t stuff it up and perform acceptably, it will make the rest of the campaign a LOT easier. If they f*** it up, however, well, it gives the Coalition exactly what they want – a whole heap of momentum, as well as highlighting Labor’s perceived lack of skill at handling the economy.
However, to perform acceptably, they probably need to do more than just “me-too” the Coalition. This is too big an issue to “me-too” – if they do it, it’ll look like a cop-out and will lead to the Coalition getting momentum anyway. They need to release their own policy which has enough differences in it that they can’t (credibly) be accused of copying the Coalition.
369
SirEggo Says:
October 15th, 2007 at 5:00 pm
G’Day all/ In my opinion, I think the Libs have drastically mistimed this announcement.
…….
Hiya SirEggo,
I’m with you. This is just day one and will be greeted with surprise – not with exclamations of delight, but with a comprehensive “Oh, really!!” People will wait to hear what Labor has to say on tax before jumping at this. Too many people have too many reservations about Howard to embrace this just on reflex….
Andrew Leigh is concerned about the unfair distribution of the proposed tax cuts.
http://andrewleigh.com/?p=1647
Maybe a concerted effort to wipe out waiting lists.
I think, like nearly all Lib policies that have been released this year, it will get 24-48 hours of headlines – then the more contrary commentators wil start to pick it apart. Meanwhile the electorate, which regards tax cuts as their rightful reward from a booming economy, and not the generous gift of a benevolent Dear Leader, will yawn.
Voters aren’t drifting to the ALP because they weren’t happy with the tex cuts they were already getting, but L-NP is just offering more of the same, including the same L-plate attack ads, and the same leader for an indeterminate period.
The ALP are ahead and can afford to pace themselves. The way I see it, a lot of the campaign ‘shock and awe’ stuff that the L-NP would normally use now has been progressively released over the year, in an increasingly desperate to arrest the slide in the polls. Apart from ‘Captain Wacky’ stuff the cupboard is nearly bare.
The Tax Cut poll results are here for people wanting to keep track:
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/politics/results.html
Now if something else should distract from the Govt’s tax cuts, something like this:
A plane carrying the Australian and Indian teams and their support staff was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting a flock of birds on take-off today.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/cricket/cricketers-in-india-plane-scare/2007/10/15/1192300661760.html
Sir Eggo i am with you… their campaign team worries me… last time they verged on incompetent with poor timing on policy announcements and a lack of policy detail… Do you remember the policies in 2001 on the GST a grab bag of GST reductions on tampons and few other items.. it was a shammozzle and they had three years to come with it…
I think given the polls and their consistency JWH has to chance his arm often and early.
There is a real risk the Liberal campaign falls apart if he doesnt do something – hence todays announcement.
Also going bold forces KR to dance to his tune. I doubt KR will be able to wait to Nov 10 to announce his tax policy.
I think if KR cant win from here he doesnt deserve to be PM. Its fair that we see what he is really made of – every PM for the last 30 years scratched and fought for the prize – Is there a core to KR or is he really just me-too. A little pressure on KR is just what JWH needs.
Presumably anyone in the game expected the Rodent to play every trick in the book and then some – after all he is a “very clever politician”.
[Now if something else should distract from the Govt’s tax cuts, something like this:
A plane carrying the Australian and Indian teams and their support staff was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting a flock of birds on take-off today.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/cricket/cricketers-in-india-plane-scare/2007/10/15/1192300661760.html%5D
Just as well there were no casulties – if there were, can you imagine Howard milking it for all it’s worth by attending the Funeral etc.
ESJ,
I think it would be tactically clever if Labor released their tax policy later this week (I’m guessing Thursday). The supposed reason why they had wanted to delay the release of the policy was that they wanted to wait for the updated Budget figures – now that they’re out, they should bring forward their release date.
For JWH, this wasn’t a big risk in terms of policy. Tax cuts are always popular and cuts this big will attract big headlines. It’s whether he gets any momentum in the polls out of this which will determine how stuffed the Libs are – if they get nothing, they’re going to be well behind, if they get something, then it would be fair to say that it’s truly game on…
Day 1 – Stategic win for Coalition (well it always will be when you get to pick when you call the election)
– Tactical Win for ALP – Howards speech bordered on rambling hysteria, Rudds was unispired but hit all the marks.
Day 2 – Tactical Win for Coaltion – any time you announce 34 bil of tax cuts you care going to win that day.
Strategic win for ALP – the Coalition has fired is biggest gun and most (all?) of the surplus on day 1. The ALP can hold back and build arguments on fiscal responsibility, interest rate pressures (how many interest rate rises does it take to kill off the tax cuts?)
Now that Parliment has been dissolved, Rudd has a lot more freedom to disagree with coalition policy and not risk wedge legislation being rushed through parliment.
At some point someone in the media will pick up on the point that interest rates aren’t rising because of the commodity boom. That’s part of it, but not exactly the full story.
Interst rates are rising becuase inflation is rising. OK.
Inflation is rising because the economy is growing faster than it’s potential growth rate. This leads to inflation.
Now, potential growth rates are tricky things, but when you INVEST montey in Infrastructure, training and the like, then you can have more growth with less inflation.
The skills shortage is a case in point. If we had had a half decent Uni and TAFE Policy from the Coaltion the skills shortage wouldn’t be as bad and so inflation wouldn’t be as bad and so interest rates wouldn’t be so high….
When Johnny gets blamed for rising rates, it will be his fault. But not in the way most people think.
Marky Marky
It is one thing to make a mistake, and it’s another thing to do the same bloody thing again.
The former makes human. The latter makes you an idiot.
Everything tells me that Labor have FINALLY got their act together and got themselves organised.
But I am still waiting for the point where it starts going wrong.
Call me pessimistic, but it has happened before.