Newspoll: 56-44

After 30 seconds of joy for Coalition supporters, Newspoll comes along a day early to rain on the parade. It shows no change whatsoever from a fortnight ago: Labor ahead 56-44 on two-party preferred, with a primary vote of 48 per cent to the Coalition’s 39 per cent. A small amount of solace might be taken from a 3 per cent increase in the Prime Minister’s remarkably resilient approval rating, now up to 47 per cent, and a rise in dissatisfaction with Kevin Rudd from 20 per cent to 24 per cent. However, both Howard and Rudd are up 1 per cent on preferred prime minister, with Kevin Rudd leading 48 per cent to 39 per cent.

Plaudits to James J for somehow finding the graphic before The Australian put its coverage online.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

477 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  1. Yo ho ho, I sense a long term wedge…an attempt to get some traction with tax cuts, and if Labor supports them, then chances are interest rates will keep climbing under them if they win power.

    I see no real great value here. Surely Stevens will come out and slap this down. And the same folks whose eyes light up when they hear ‘tax cut’ are crestfallen when they hear ‘rate rise’.

    I think that the likely rise on 6-7 November will be a counterpoint to any huga announcements like this. Howard is still seeming like a fish out of water.

  3. Nice to get a firm opinion 🙂

    Re the Australian’s readers’ poll: The day Labor polls 82% in Parkes will be the day Osama bin Laden is elected Mayor of New York.

  4. I wonder if Howard is simply inventing future money that is not really going to come just so he can spend us more into oblivion.

  6. the “tax announcement” is quite interesting for a few reasons

    1.originally part of ‘pm costellos” new deal budget drafted back in feb/march as part of the aborted challenge
    2.the “special interest sectors”eg carers oldies etc were given a sweetener in budget -this too was part of the new deal budget
    3.still to go are the “battlers” who besides the $1000 sweetener originally prposed under new deal will also be see spending blitzes on core infrastructure eg health ,education etc

    the surprising thing is that in its “original” form back in march (where all the pieces were combined into one helluva nation building package ) “pm costello” would had a fair to even chance of winning

    now with this ‘chooks breakfast” approach the impact and “theme” will be lost and only the “moneybags” element will latch on to it

    out in voterland -lead balloon

  7. A bit confused.

    Tim Colebatch in The Age today said that the Coalition vote was ‘holding firmer than in any state except W.A’.

    Apparently this came out of the last Neilson, which was 56/44 nationally, with no state by state figures, at least none that I saw. What’s going on here?

  8. LOL. Then Howard should promise $100b and Stevens can say, “oh that’s ok because 80 of it doesn’t actually exist” and everyone’s happy.

  9. This is another attempt at cause a big jolt, like Howard’s lame ‘calytons’ reconciliation announcement.

    When do they start? Is it 20 months some said?

  10. The tax cuts aren’t that big a deal.

    The government is pretty much just pre-announcing the next 5 years of tax cuts which they usually announce on budget night each year anyway.

    Rudd just needs to match the cuts, talk about massive surpluses the last few years while people struggle so why weren’t these cuts brought forward etc. Then he can get back to talking about his investment in infrastructure and education and how it will build extra capacity in the economy and lessen the chance of interest rises.

  12. Costello puts out his hugely generous tax cut policy then announces that GDP has exceeded projections by .5% for 07/08. An interest rate rise on Melbourne Cup day is virtually a dead cert.

  14. Lets hope Labor don’t fall for ‘metooism’. This is a big chance to exhibit fiscal responsibility and pull the rug from under a coalition platform. The State’s infrastructure and low income earners should be the focus of ALP policy. Let the ‘buying our vote’ tag and ‘clever’ stick to libs. In my view they’ve panicked.

  15. “What are the chances that Hutchinson will outpoll Labor and win on Labor preferences?”

    Labor ought to run dead in this seat to try to get Hutchinson up. Might as well give it a shot.

  16. Tim Colebatch said the coalition vote was firm in Victoria

    Firm compared to what…? Last Newspoll? Last election? 20% swings in NSW?

  17. KT, he said the Coalition vote in Vic was the second most ‘firm’ after WA. Apparently this came out of Neilson, but seems utter nonsense to me! Haven’t the polls been fantastic for the ALP in Victoria?

  18. Well Rudd can announce the next 6 years in tax cuts ahead of time just to get the bigger figure.

    But if that is the case then it is no big deal – easy to deal with.

    So it really was just a stunt for the big headline – but somewhat loses effect when they say it is all delayed. Tax cuts on the never never.

  19. Can anyone see the irony is this quote from Howard?

    Labor has pledged action to make it easier for young people to get into the housing market, and has promised to establish a committee to examine grocery prices.

    “Isn’t it better to say ‘Well, here is additional tax relief, particularly for low income people’, [and] let them decide how to spend it, rather than the government fiddling with a housing affordability policy which might add to the cost of buying a first home?” Mr Howard said.

    Wasn’t the first home buyer’s grant supposed to help if housing affordability? Didn’t that just raise the cost of houses?

  20. Yeah but Kina, Rudd has run on the fact that he is a fiscal conservative and promised budget surpluses. People have been saying what are your policies? Here’s his chance to open a huge gap without risk.

  21. Treasury normally releases updated budget forecasts 10 days after the election is called, they will probably be the same as the figures released today.

    All Rudd has to do is say he is waiting for the “official” pre election figures to be released.

    The ABC radio news is leading with “some economists” say the tax cuts are inflationary and will lead to higher inflation.

  23. Gecko (314) – I agree that the libs have probably panicked but when it comes to big election bribes I’m a “me too” man. JWH perfected the hip pocket technique way back in the 1970’s – remember the fist full of dollars ads – and hasn’t stopped since.

    I say if the money is there to spend – and Howard tells us it is, so he can’t accuse Labor of overspending – why take the risk of not spending it. Rudd can run the line that it’s the people’s money after all and because Howard has been overtaxing them they are entitled to it back. As for fiscal responsibility, I just don’t think the great unwashed are that sophisticated. Most of them wouldn’t know what the term meant.

  24. Howard and Costello have not only promised next years tax cuts but the next two government’s tax cuts.

    I bet that these cuts are ‘aspirational’

  25. Kina @ 290

    I’m with you. Who gives a flying whatnot about kiddies having a nice swim? But tax cuts! That’s it! I’m switching my vote. It’s all right by me to fiddle with the nation’s conscience, but to put pressure on interest rates stikes me as treason.

  26. From a Liberal tactical point of view though, surely (win or lose) they want Rudd spending like a drunken Howard? Gives them ammo against him in this campaign, and if they lose, upward pressure on rates when they’d likely be on upwards cycle anyway? Enough of a reason for some restraint perhaps?

  27. Ah, tax cuts. This is the bit where good policy sense and a nuanced argument are meant to prevail over populism and greed, and let’s face it, sheer bloody stupidity and ignorance. Will this happen? Not if past elections are anything to go by.

  28. Maybe not treason but certain to be a path to political suicide which is something the Tories seem to be perfecting. By the end of a six week campaign at this rate the job will be complete.

  29. Oh, how the MSM and the government would have howled about reckless spending if Labor had released a tax policy like this.

    Here’s a good opportunity for Rudd to paint the government as desperate to buy votes.

  30. The best move for Rudd would be to state they will be giving tax cuts in the next Budget and any further Budget where they can be made responsibly. However, they will not make blanket commitments on the eve of the election as a cynical attempt to buy votes.

  33. That’s a good angle, LTEP 330. Though tax cuts that don’t sound like ‘half a sandwich and a drink’ type cuts are hideously expensive. It will erode the money they have for infrastructure promises. Might have to do it however.

  34. Rudd should try to spend close to the same amount of money as Howard on tax cuts – however, he should structure it differently.

    I’m betting they’re going to put more incentives in for R+D, such as a 125% tax rebate for anyone setting up a biotech company in Australia (or something like that).

    I would LOVE to see the reaction of business if he dropped the corporate tax rate to 29% (from its current rate of 30%) – how would Peter Hendy deal with that one? But, of course, he won’t do this (probably) and will do something similar in structure to Howard – I guess something he could do would be to eliminate the 40% tax bracket and have a massive 30% bracket (not sure how much that would cost)

  35. Alex McDonnel at 312

    Are you suggesting that the coalition’s proposal to cut tax in 2009 will affect inflation and therefore interest rates now?

    Anyway, I’m sure the rate rise won’t happen in November. But the guide will be the September quarter CPI figures released 24 October. If the CPI for the quarter is in excess of 1.0% – then a rate rise is at least a possibility in November. Below that, and there’s no realistic likelihood.

  37. Libs announcing tax cuts again! Yehhaa! Have to agree with a previous poster that it will cause some probs for the ALP early in the campaign. They really should wait for treasury to come out with data before releasing their own.

    Still, its pretty obvious that this is yet another way that the Libs are using the advantage of incumbency to play politics. They would have had access to everything from treasury for weeks now i think, and since people are already generally annoyed that they have been spending so many tax dollars on advertising (another advantage of incumbency) that may resonate and give the ALP some breathing room on this.

    Still, its a risky strategy given that the RBA will be making a decision on interest rates before the poll, and tax cuts are something that are seen by many to inflationary. If the ALP start rolling out a “fist full of dollars” response (tapping into Howard’s time as the 22% treasurer), and can make a case that previous rounds of tax cuts have had an inflationary effect, then the crew of the good ship Rattus may regret this.

    Sorry Captain Wacky Rattus, my vote isn’t for sale this year. Try again.

  39. Darn @323
    No doubt you have a point with a minority. But even the ‘great unwashed’ (he said smelling his armpits) understand we have problems with water, roads, hospitals, schools, house affordability, food prices and fuel.
    All year we have heard Howard described as being slippery and clever… spending our money recklessly for his own ends… this is a real chance to make it stick with his own wedge. With 30 billion of promised tax cuts now to play with, how can it not fall into the hands of labor who want to deliver infrastructure and state fiscal reform.
    I smell a trap, and feel labor would be wise to forget metooism now we are in the campaign and forge ahead. lol

  40. Josh @ 335,

    Gittins says that the market is currently rating the likelihood of an interest rate rise in November at 50%.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/pm-plays-chicken-with-reserve-board/2007/10/14/1192300601527.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

    I also note that the futures market has increased their expectations of an increase in interest rates after the news came out regarding a projected increase in GDP in 07/08. (Compare the Open price with current bid and ask prices for the 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate)

    http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/delayed_futures.htm

    So I would think that there’s probably a better than 50/50 chance of rates going up in November. The key determining factor will be, of course, the September quarter CPI figures – if it’s in excess of 1%, the November rate rise will become a virtual certainty (assuming Stevens has the cojones to pull the trigger in an election campaign)

  41. [With 30 billion of promised tax cuts now to play with, how can it not fall into the hands of labor who want to deliver infrastructure and state fiscal reform.]

    No, if you cut taxes then people will be able to donate towards the construction of desalination plants and wind farms! 😛

    The government now has nothing left to spend. By their own admission they are leaving the budget in surplus by just 1% of GDP for the next 5 years.

  42. #335.

    You haven’t been listening as closely as I have to Mr Stevens.

    A 0.9 CPI would lead to a Nov rate hike. Even a 0.8 makes it half a chance. Haven’t you seen the recent Employment, Retail Sales and Credit figures?

    To be honest, the current pricing is already 50/50.

    I personally think that the Dec hike is more likely, but Nov is still a very real chance.

  45. I don’t agree with significant tax cuts, hence this is the Coalitions’ vision.
    What they are doing is taking from one hand and giving it back.. interest rate rises, workchoices and spending cuts and giving you a tax cut ridiclous..
    What does concern me is that Howard is running the agenda at present.. and this is a significant policy announcement on day one…
    Rudd if he has tax cuts should be a more modest and suggest that you can have a tax cut without workchoices, with better hospitals and an education system and lower interest rates..

  47. The Govt is spinning a headline benefit for part-time ‘working mums’ through an increase in the low-income tax offset: by July 2010 you’ll pay no tax if you earn $16,000. But the headlines don’t mention the changes for high income earners. Let’s do a quick comparison.

    ‘Part-time mum’ earning $16,000 currently pays $750pa tax and from 1 July 2010 will pay nothing – $750 gained. That’s good.

    Average wage earner (no overtime) getting $56680pa currently pays $11604 tax – will reduce to $10554 from 2010, saving $1050pa. I guess that’s fair.

    John Howard gets paid $357,656 – that’s the cash and excludes the accommodation, meals and travel in his ‘package’. Tax on that is currently $140,545.20 and would be $129,165.52 from 2010. A benefit of $11,379.68pa.

    Sol Trujillo was paid $11.7 million last year. He probably doesn’t pay income tax on all of that, but if he did it would currently be $5,244,600. From 2010 he’d pay $4,892,950 – saving $351,650pa.

    So – John Howard proposes to give himself 15 times what the ‘part-time mum’ gets and 11 times what the average wage earner gets.

    Sol Trujillo would get 468 times the ‘mum’ benefit and 334 times the average wage earner’s.

    Presumably Dick Pratt stands to get even more.

    Seem as reasonable to you as it does to me?

  50. [Had to open up my Linux partition – XP freezing on me..grrr]

    Gecko – Labor won’t make the same mistake twice. Not even at your encouragement.

    They will have targeted tax cuts as well. If what the TurningWorm said is right, that this is just the next 5 years usual tax cuts announced now then, it is not such a big deal – as you always can have many excuses to not proceed later if the economics change – as Howard well knows.

    It is an ‘all things being equal’ promise on the never never.

    Labor would have been developing their plan very carefully and now that the Govt has shown their hand it gives them additional room to move.

    Their policy will come closer to the election no doubt, for greater effect.

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