After 30 seconds of joy for Coalition supporters, Newspoll comes along a day early to rain on the parade. It shows no change whatsoever from a fortnight ago: Labor ahead 56-44 on two-party preferred, with a primary vote of 48 per cent to the Coalition’s 39 per cent. A small amount of solace might be taken from a 3 per cent increase in the Prime Minister’s remarkably resilient approval rating, now up to 47 per cent, and a rise in dissatisfaction with Kevin Rudd from 20 per cent to 24 per cent. However, both Howard and Rudd are up 1 per cent on preferred prime minister, with Kevin Rudd leading 48 per cent to 39 per cent.
Plaudits to James J for somehow finding the graphic before The Australian put its coverage online.
Rudd’s line could be “No one believed Howard when he promised not to introduce a GST, why should anyone believe he will deliver these tax cuts when he is no longer the prime minister?”
I guess people will have more money to put into their mortgages. This is going to put significant inflationary pressure on the economy. It should go down well as a populist policy.
Alan Kohler on why Howard and Costello are rubbish economic managers, and Rudd would be better.
Worth reading in full! From Crikey.
“The reason I think Kevin Rudd and the ALP will be better for investors is not part of the election campaign, and probably won’t be: they are likely to be better managers of prosperity than John Howard.
Howard has squandered the booming budget surpluses of recent years on re-election rather than the national infrastructure. There have been huge transfers to middle class welfare designed to attract votes and belated, miserly, spending on national infrastructure.
The centrepiece of the Government’s budget surplus strategy – the Future Fund – is, in my view, largely pointless. There is no problem meeting public service pensions out of current revenue and they are now in rundown so the problem is not growing.
Meanwhile, the conventional wisdom that the conservatives are, in general, better for shares than the Labor Party was exploded by Bob Hawke: equity strategists have studied the performance of the market during various shades of Australian Government in the past but there is no pattern, at least not one you could discern in the short term.
Political parties have been victims and beneficiaries of the cycle rather than creators of it. That includes Paul Keating, who always talked about having his “hands on the leversâ€.
The hands on the levers mostly had an effect on the sharemarket only after the various lever pullers were gone (with the possible exception of Gough Whitlam perhaps, although the mid-seventies bear market was caused by the Yom Kippur war and oil shock of 1972, not the election in the same year).
Keating left three important legacies that affected the sharemarket after he went: the creation of mandatory super, which is still having a huge impact on the stockmarket today; the introduction of enterprise bargaining, which began an improvement in productivity that produced a generational shift in share of GDP from labour to capital; and raising interest rates to 17% before the 1990/91.
I used to think, and wrote several times, that the 1990/91 recession was a mistake, and not “a recession we had to haveâ€. But I have since changed my mind.
That recession, combined with enterprise bargaining, broke the cycle of inflation expectations in Australia and has contributed to the lack of extreme boom/bust cycles and the 16-year expansion since.
But it was only a contributing factor. The most important foundation of the long boom has been globalisation and the growth of China and India, driving down labour costs around the world and underpinning low inflation across the globe.
Now we are contemplating a change of Government after four years of stockmarket boom and 16 years of economic growth.
On the basis of our boom/bust history, you would say this is a bad election to win because things are bound to turn nasty soon. Kevin Rudd, on this basis, will preside over a recession and stockmarket bust and then be tossed out at the next election in favour of a still quite young Peter Costello.
Actually I don’t believe that for a minute. In my view this is as good an election to win as 1996. “
Re 234,
The end of my post got cut off, don’t know why.
What I was going to say was in essence this – anything that takes away money from the lower income earners at the expense of giving more money to higher income earners will not fly with the electorate and Rudd will be all over this like a wet blanket. Labor will release their policy at the right time (after the treasury numbers come out I think someone else said 10 days into the campaign?). Any policies put out by Rudd will be carefully thought out to make sure that the people struggling to make ends meet are taken care of. Traditional Liberal policy – feed the rich at the expense of the poor. A more sane policy would be one where those who could afford more taxes are given more and the increases used to benefit the lower income earners. Robin Hood didn’t have such a bad plan all those years ago. Peter Costello actually does a mean Sherrif of Nottingham impersonation ;-).
So is there going to be any money for infrastructure, health and education? Is this the ‘fire sale we had to have’?
Those cuts – should they ever actually occur – are socially irresponsible.
(1) The $1200 initial windfall will put further stress on inflation next year, thereby putting further stress on rates.
(2) They will rob this country of the infrastructure it needs to prosper into the future and the ability to maintain an adequate level of services and welfare for an increasingly ageing population. Throw in a narrowing tax base because of generational size differences and you have a catastrophe.
Costello has quite recently expressed concern about the level of tax cuts he has presided over, and now they do this?!
[So is there going to be any money for infrastructure, health and education? Is this the ‘fire sale we had to have’?]
There policy over the last 10 years has been that tax cuts for short term political gain are more important than infrastructure investment to help expand the economy.
Nothing has changed.
Kina says
{Howard didn’t release his tax policies until late in the 1996 election.}
True, and even when he did they were a complete lie
Alex McDonnel at 243
Consider it a (less than) bold prediction.
The status of the Australian economy is such that a rise is quite possibly justified. A rise in December or early next year is highly likely. But I think the RBA wants to wait and ensure that the US economy does not go into a downturn on the back of this subprime stuff, before raising rates (raising rates at the doorstep of a souring global economy is obviously undesirable).
The crucial US economic performance data comes out in mid-late November. The RBA will wait for the December meeting rather than pulling the trigger in November.
I wonder when David Speers will make his run for the Liberal leadership? His gushing after Costello’s announcement almost made me sick. “Howard and costello are so good together. We should see more of it”. Please – easy stomach.
New Australia @ 112 = Old Australia. You’ve merely been enjoying the benefits of Keatings “J” curve for the last decade so just go back to sleep.
Paul K @ 227
I DO like it, Paul. It is your right. And I will defend that right … etc. Ok, goodnight.
What the heck. More silliness:
http://media.smh.com.au/?rid=32404
Check this photo, particularly the backing behing Howard and Costello: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/15/2059904.htm
Is that the same colour and font as Rudds ‘New Leadership’ malarkey from yesterday?
Speers said himself any tax cuts won’t take effect for two years. Some plan.
The Liberal tax policy is political madness. I don’t doubt for one minute that they will do it – delivery tax cuts to high income earners is what they have consistently done for many years.
But aren’t they trying to win over swinging voters in marginal seats???? How many in that category earn over $180,000 per year?? The changes to the brackets are not significant and don’t even arrive in people’s pockets for another 20 months – ages away. Yet more favouring of the wealthy at the expense of the ordinary worker – is this really the image that they want to be projecting? And this is at the time when they are being accused of being out of touch, an attach that is now even more potent. Dumb politics.
They should have cut the 30% rate to 28% – wouldn’t surprise me if this is what the ALP does.
If anyone believes that Costello has been a good economic manager, they should read the cover story in ‘Monthly’ magazine. OK, it a bit of a leftie rag, but the author (Charlton?) makes a well argued case. The Alan Kohler remarks above follow the same theme. In a nutshell, Howard and Costello have been incredibly lucky to be in charge of a burgeoning economy, no credit to them but much to Keating and China.
John, unless the votes they’re trying to win back are in their safe seats.
Paul at comment 102 writes:
“This election will be won and lost in the marginals, not in the opinion polls…”
Actually, Paul, I think you will find that it will be won and lost in a number of hitherto “safe” Liberal seats on the 5% to 10% margin. The polls have certainly shown considerable movement here and Possum’s site has some interesting analysis on the topic.
Certainly the Libs have now placed such seats in the “at risk” basket, which gives you some idea of the dynamic at work. The opinion polls you think irrelevant have certainly scarred the pants off them.
So, althoiugh the marginals will certainly move, the real massacre is gonna come elsewhere. Either that, or the 70 or so opinion polls we’ve had since January are complete lies.
Ruawake,
I know you are in QLD. How close are you to Fadden? I was through that area on holidays last week. I know that the current member is retiring and thus both the Lib and Labor candidates are new. The Labor guy seems pretty popular up there from what I could gather by reading local papers and seeing more than one billboard teaming his and Rudd’s picture. {I saw more ads for Labor in Fadden than the Libs} Any chance that Fadden will be picked up by Labor?
That is why Rudd would be foolish to accept Speers as moderator in a debate, he is a lib hack.
Costello has gone mad with money
EVERYTHING MUST GO!
What will they sell off to pay for this?
@ 202 Adam Says:
Never seen a pack with 150 Jokers before.
I liked the bit at the end about Costello yellow.
http://media.smh.com.au/?rid=32404
Julie
I am on the Sunny Coast, Fairfax. I very much doubt Fadden would fall to Labor. It is new money canal block country.
Re 275,
Thanks ruawake 🙂 …. was just curious because the odds for Labor there are tighter by heaps than the other seats in the general GC area so it seemed logical to assume that meant they might be close in that seat.
Labor had a primary vote of 28% in Fadden last election. David Jull would end up in the loony bin if he lost. 8)
Pancho 2:32pm
Re the photo in the article linked to:
I think the two men standing side by side is a bad look. It’s just not leader-like. People understand a leader accompanied by a relevant minister when making an announcement but the pecking order is always clear. But two co-leaders? Seriously, it makes me squirm.
Here’s predicting it will cost votes.
From Perth Now Comments.
[well, that announcement on tax cuts has sold me. at the end of the day, workchoices and education and health and climate change and foreign affairs dont affect me on a day to day basis. what affects me is the amount of income tax i pay. and the Liberal Party tax policy just announced means John Howard is number 1 for me.
Posted by: moneybags of perth 12:15pm today
Comment 160 of 166]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/comments/0,21590,22580836-948,00.html
ruawake, you can be our Sunshine Coast correspondent. Is Caroline Hutchinson, the independent running in Fisher, a serious candidate? Is Slipper in trouble? Is Brough really as popular in Longman as is being suggested?
ruawake 277 – are you awake? David Jull has resigned and will not be contesting Fadden this time.
Moneybags of Perth may be one thing but the Governor of the Reserve Bank might not take so kindly to this sort of fiscal irresponsibility.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/tax-bombshell-40-cents-in-dollar-top.html
Frank Calabrese, that just sounds like a standard Liberal Party stooge line. Just about anytime you read an “Of course… what was I thinking… now I’m voting Liberal” comment you know it’s a stooge.
Elaine Nile is running for the Senate. She must be 70ish and not very bright as I recall.
As in Mrs Elaine Fred Nile, Adam? Could be the next Senator Lady Flo Bjelke-Peterson.
# 284 – Great to look at though, Adam.
Now we’re talking! Mr Howard and his brilliant treasure, Mr Peter Costelleons, have surely cooked Rudd’s goose with this never-ever tax cut for the well-off and creamy. Those losers out there living on bread and dripping will applaud this bold, decisive move and vote with a strong, black pen. They will look to the heavens, kneel, and chant: “Prey gods … my troubles will be over ..”
yes she is The Hon Mrs Rev Fred. I don’t think there’s much danger of her being elected. She’s No 2 on the CDP Senate ticket behind Pastor Paul Green, who appears to be campaigning in a dinner jacket. Tres chic.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/senate1.shtml
Alex McDonnel
He would still end up in the loony bin. 🙂
Adam
Caroline Hutchinson is popular, she has done lots of good things for charities, she was considering joining the ALP but decided to run as an independent, I would assume her preferences will go, very much, to Labor.
I am seeing lots of “Give Slipper the Boot” car stickers in Maroochydore.
I have been saying for months that Brough will lose Longman.
I never worried about WorkChoices, Hicks and Children Overboard but now with these tax cuts – well I was always going to vote Liberal now – will vote Labor for sure now. The Govt doing silly tax cuts show they cant be trusted.
🙂
The tax cuts are VERY VERY backloaded…..
Hi all….
Not meaning to be a wet-blanket but this tax cut seems to being received remarkably well by the MSM.
And i hasten to add that the average person hears ‘tax cut’ and thinks ‘brilliant’. I’d like to think they think ‘irresponsible’, ‘interest rates’ and ‘lack of services’ but i’m not sure they will.
Anyone care to convince me otherwise?
Anyone know when/where the state details of the latest newspoll are?
Jull is a very sick man so let’s not be too nasty about him.
What are the chances that Hutchinson will outpoll Labor and win on Labor preferences?
Just thought I’d paste a link to this online webpoll by The Oz: http://uvote.coredata.com.au/
Completely unscientific, of course, but potentially interesting as a guide to how out of touch the GG is with its own readers. Check out its chamber graphic suggesting: ALP with 130 seats, Coalition with 12, Greens with 3 and a fair few undecided :-).
Yo ho ho, the last budget was trumpeted as masterclass by the GG too, but no bounce from voters moving away from Howard was seen.
Of course the MSM were bound to plaster it everywhere.
I wonder what it will do to rates?
And, is it really funded? I can bet that is an escape hatch for a later back down.
I think the time delay of two years might dampen it.
I think what it boils down to is ‘possible tax cuts in the future’ – if funding stands up. So they are banking on $34 billion in more surpluses and the ongoing cost and funding?
I hate this blatant bribery. Money, money, money! It always turns my stomach when people get greedy. Years ago my father told me that we shouldn’t look at what governments could do for us, because we’d be allright financially no matter who was in govt. We’d always be able to make a living. He thought we should look at what the government was doing for the poorest people who really needed help.
Apparently, he must have been crazy!!
(And he was a small businessperson).
Yo ho ho, tax cuts seem to be met with a yawn, nowadays. We’ll see whether tax cuts x 5 have any different effect.
“What are the chances that Hutchinson will outpoll Labor and win on Labor preferences?”
Zero.