Another old thread title reactivated, for the want of a newer and better idea. It’s looking like the war won’t be phoney for long, with a growing sense that the Prime Minister will be forced to break the circuit next week by calling an election for late October. Keeping the faith is Christopher Pearson at The Australian, who still expects a “narrow Coalition victory”. This is based on the fact that Newspoll got it “horribly wrong” in 2004, when its final poll overstated the Labor vote by 1.4 per cent and understated the Coalition vote by 1.7 per cent.
Bass (Tas, Liberal 2.6%) and Lyons (Tas, Labor 3.7%): The Australian reports Shadow Environment Minister Peter Garrett has backtracked on suggestions the proposed West Tamar pulp mill would be subjected to an analysis of greenhouse gas emissions, under a party policy covering new projects producing more than 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year. According to reporter Matthew Denholm, this “apparently” followed “the intervention of Kevin Rudd’s office and a backlash by timber groups and pro-logging Labor MPs”. On the other side of the fence, the Liberal candidate for Lyons, Ben Quin, does not appear of a mind to back down after his party threatened him with disciplinary action for publicly stating his opposition to the mill.
Moreton (Qld, Liberal 2.8%) and Bonner (Qld, Liberal 0.7%): Labor has promised to commit “up to” $300 million to begin construction of an underpass at the junction of Mains and Kessels roads in Macgregor in Brisbane’s south. The junction is located just inside Moreton and near the boundary of Bonner. The Courier-Mail records the following reaction from embattled Moreton MP Gary Hardgrave, who claims the resumption of businesses in the area will cost thousands of jobs: “I couldn’t believe my luck. I was always going to win the seat but this now ensures the swing is on”.
La Trobe (Vic, Liberal 5.8%): While Labor is wanting for low-hanging fruit in Victoria, Rick Wallace of The Australian reports this outer eastern Melbourne electorate has been upgraded to target seat status, although “well-placed Labor sources say Labor has made greater gains in Queensland”.
Ballarat (Vic, Labor 2.2%): Labor member Catherine King suffered a self-inflicted wound last weekend when Kevin Rudd’s office ordered the withdrawal of a television ad which attacked Liberal candidate Samantha McIntosh for having a $2.2 million property on the market.
Newcastle (NSW, Labor 8.7%): The Daily Telegraph reports “prominent Newcastle businessman and city councillor Aaron Buman” is considering standing as an independent.
[The westpoll web site http://www.marketresearch.com.au/
says a survey was done 3-5 sept….it must be due for release soon.]
WOW, I hope that means it is released tomorrow. The last one appeared in the West Australian Sunday paper (Sunday Mail?)
Well Kevvie is right, Howard should be focused on APEC after all there are some important people there.
Hu wants our Gas
Putin wants Yellow Cake
Bush is looking for a OPEC meeting being held at a place called Sidney
By the way as of today there are 500 days left until Bush’s term ends.
[Bush is looking for a OPEC meeting being held at a place called Sidney]
Bush also came up with a stupid scheme of having an Asia-Pacific Democratic forum, basically designed to exclude China. I think this is a lame idea that will ultimately weaken APEC.
Bush’s idea sounds suspiciously like an Asian government required to follow USA rules.
bmwofoz, nobody said Kevvie is wrong. derr
[Bush’s idea sounds suspiciously like an Asian government required to follow USA rules.]
Nah, he just wants to make China jealous of the influence the U.S. has.
re.some previous comments on this thread. Dennis Shan`s blog for today is currently showing 20 responses. Very tough to pass muster these days apparently.
Simon, there is no Sunday edition of The West, like there is with the Courier-Mail and The Advertiser (both of which have a Sunday edition called the Sunday Mail). Perth’s Sunday paper is the Sunday Times, from the rival News Limited (The West is “independent” – neither News nor Fairfax). So it will appear no sooner than Monday. Rest assured that I will be on to it very quickly, whenever it appears.
Just watching the News about the protest march in Sydney. The Cops must be real disappointed they didn’t get to use their water cannon. All those expensive toys and the ferals didn’t want to play.
blindoptimist #96
To be honest, I don’t think prefered PM has much impact.
Keating led Howard as prefered PM by 5-6% all the way to his defeat.
In 2001 Howard was 52 to Beazley 34 and yet Labor got a greater percentage of the vote.
I think the preference is already factored into people’s thinking
Yeah, I think you`re probably right with the last comment there ifonly. I think it was `98 though when Howard scraped in with about 49% 2pp. Not sure what the preferred PM polling was saying.
The AEC ads to encourage voter enrollment have been getting a big airing again this evening. Does that mean something?
On Rudd’s comments, tactics please! He needs to keep the attention on the leadership during APEC without looking as though he is doing so, in fact putting Australia’s interest first above petty politics.
[The West is “independent†– neither News nor Fairfax]
So who exactly owns it? West Australian business / old money?
[On Rudd’s comments, tactics please! He needs to keep the attention on the leadership during APEC without looking as though he is doing so, in fact putting Australia’s interest first above petty politics.]
The Ten News Adelaide report was quite damning. It said that the leaders didn’t agree to any firm targets, but instead “agreed to agree”!
Rudd can drive a truck through this.
At the moment PPM stats are very close to primary polling figures, so people seem to be assuming a positive correlation. (No, there may well be a positive correlation, just not the exact symmetry – help me here with a phrase if you can stats gurus). As you point out,(ifonly) I don`t think this holds up historically or statistically.
As has been pointed out before, Dennis Shanahan jumped on the closing PPM polling as a sign that Howard was closing the gap. As has also been mentioned (with no small amount of glee), he dropped the `PPM figures are the most accurate reflection of the electorate`s mood` (my quotes) argument when they turned dramatically in the other direction.
Looks like John Howard will refuse to step down.
I wonder if anyone has the guts to push him?
Glen asked some time back which PM sounded the best and gave a list.
The question is who has the numbers?
Peter Costello would surely still have the numbers with Malcolm Turnbull second.
It’s all looking a bit academic.
John Howard still believes he is the only one who can win.
The conservative commentators are in disarray.
If no one challenges John Howard over the next three days then the race is on and he will have undoubtedly have been weakened by all the leadership talk.
Anyway, we’ll see what Nielsen produces on Tuesday morning.
That might well set leadership speculation into a new frenzy.
Prime Minsters, usually, are the preferred Prime Ministers leading into an election.
Not this time 🙂
The West is owned by a company called WA Newspapers Ltd – listed on the ASX currently.
Channel 7 (I think), however, owns a significant portion of WAN shares – something in the order of 25% (once again, this may be incorrect, but it isn’t a majority stake)
Paul @ 103,
“By the way as of today there are 500 days left until Bush’s term ends.”
Thank God Howard doesn’t have that many left 😉
BlindOp, Boll, I’ve never thought PPM mattered much, but reading Crosby Textor’s report on Crikey, they seem to see a strong correlation with TPP.
i just read a previous blog re Shanahan’s blogs, ive put up a reply in everyone of them and never been printed yet, though left wing i always thought my blogs were fairly reasonable.
Rudd is being a little mischievious stirring the pot, he’s blaming the Costello supporters for the leadership rumours currently doing the rounds, hmmm i wish they’d put up a high profile candidate against Downer, the man’s an embarrassment to South Australia, when the Democrats put up the lead singer from Red Gum it went to preferences to save Downers hide, wonder who i’d have to grovel to to get someome like that to stand against him now the tide is turning, he’s not my member but just seeing his self satisfied smirk on telly makes me want to head for the loo.
I just looked at portland bet, thought id look up bennelong see what the odds were..
its not there any more?
Could someone else check that it’s not just my computer? https://www.portlandbet.com/
Every other seat seems to be there, have portland bet heard a leadership challenge rumour or something? (unlikely but never know)
Rudd is messing with Costello’s mind 😉
Howard’s APEC surge is a fizzer. Nothing on global warming, all p==s and wind. I’d give it, at a pinch, two nanoseconds in the public mind. It will not change votes.
Those of you obsessed with whether comments get a run on Shanahan’s blog, get over it. I do a bit of MSM blog moderation meself, and know about this stuff. the Australian isn’t published again till Monday. There’s probably nobody rostered on over the weekend to moderate the blog. I would imagine someone will run through the weekend posts tomorrow and decide which to put up.
Usually, if lots of blogs are basically saying the same thing, they’ll only run some of them, to avoid boring the readers. I think some of you have too many conspiracy theories on this. Remember that online media, particularly for daily newspapers, is still fairly new, and I doubt that they’ve increased staff very much (if at all) to cater for the outbreak of blogging.
Antonio, that explains this weekend but what about when a blog is put up for every column he writes and yet not one is published, i have no probs with all the other blogs at all, Matt’s blog is by far the busiest and yet he finds the time to answer a good few of his bloggers, George is fairly good too, he soon puts you in your place if he thinks your going overboard and he wont tolerate anyone dissing the pollie’s family members.
Off topic, but this ain’t good for the WA Libs.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/08/2027526.htm
[The son of a Western Australian Liberal Party politician has been charged with drink-driving and speeding offences while allegedly driving a government vehicle.]
I’m thinking about campaign themes. Old songs seem to be very popular.
I say that Labor goes with the old “Guess Who” classic No Time.
Key lyrics are: No time left for you Libs,
On my way to better things.
The Libs have to go with the Beatles Classic “Yellow Submarine” as a tribute to their polling.
ifonly…
In general I would agree with you, but this election has a very “presidential” character to it: I think the winner will be the Preferred PM and, allowing for small seat-by-seat/ state-by-state variations, the 2PP will follow the trend in Preferred PM.
I don’t want any rugby league finals spoilers here. I’m a Vic who likes rugby, but will have to tape the games replayed on Fox Sports at 1am tonight, then watch them tomorrow.
Curtis Hodson-Thomas hey? That’s the son of my local state member (well, until the next election anyway). It’s a nothing story – though it won’t help Keenan’s local law and order stance in Stirling.
swampy Says:Antonio, that explains this weekend but what about when a blog is put up for every column he writes and yet not one is published,
Mine get printed all the time, and when we’re talking about Shanahan, it’s never anything but pointed about the fact that he has completely lost credibility as a journalist. But you’ve got to say it in a way that’s unique, otherwise you’re just saying the same crap as everyone else. Who wants to read that?
Personally, I think the blog managers do a good job of putting up critical comments. You have to realise however, that Dennis himself might decide what gets shown as a response to his blog.
Re (129),
“The Libs have to go with the Beatles Classic “Yellow Submarine†as a tribute to their polling.”
I rather like Yesterday if you are going to use a Beatles song. ;-D
“Yesterday,
All my troubles seemed so far away,
Now it looks as though they’re here to stay,
Oh, I believe in yesterday.
Suddenly,
I’m not half the man I used to be,
There’s a shadow hanging over me,
Oh, yesterday came suddenly. “
It would seem obvious to me re Rudd’s comments, read between the lines and he is stoking the public doubt in Liberal instability, feeding the narrative of a decaying regime while seeming to be statesman like and above the fray.Tactically very clever is Kevie.
Julie
Oh, yes! That IS the song.
Yeah, the Beatles have a cache of classics that would be relevant for the Libs.
What about “Help”
Instead of the Beatles how about the citizen king song “better days”
“One foot in the hole, one foot gettin’ deeper,
with a broken mirror and a blown out speaker
And I ain’t got much else to lose.
I’m faded flat busted been jaded I been dusted.
I know that I’ve seen better days.
One foot in the hole, one foot gettin’ deeper,
Crank it to eleven and blow another speaker and
I ain’t got I ain’t got much to lose ’cause
I’ve seen better days I’ve been star of many plays
I’ve seen better days and the bottom drops out.
I’ve seen better days i’ve been star of many plays
I’ve seen better days and the bottom drops out.
Speaking of Yesterday – Here is “Howard” singing it via Nicholson
http://www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au/flash/flash.php?id=287
This APEC climate change declaration doesn’t seem worth the paper it’s written on. We’ll need Bush and Howard both gone before any real progress on climate change can be made. For Bush, that’s only another 16 1/2 months to go.
Amused (post 6) – the theory that Latham lost Braddon and Bass over forestry policy is extremely well supported by booth-by-booth figures which generally show much larger swings to the Government in the timber towns than in the rest of the state. Indeed in some urban parts of Tasmania, there were swings to Latham. In Lyons the picture is a little hazy due to the small size of the booths and also Dick Adams rejecting the Latham policy, but the evidence that the issue did matter is overwhelming.
Furthermore the oft-repeated mantra that polls were showing Labor on the nose in those two electorates before those policies were announced and hence it can’t have been Latham’s forestry leanings that did it, is incorrect. While Latham’s forest policy itself had not been announced the symbolic vision of Latham side by side with Bob Brown gave people a very good idea of what they could expect well in advance of it.
I suspect that the impact was not confined to Bass and Braddon but also prevented Labor from making inroads in SE NSW timber seats, but I have not examined hard data on that (and wouldn’t know what all the timber towns in those seats were anyway).
Slain
Yes, but Beatles sentiments – and passion – go deeper. And to the point. Also, it seems very American. Nah.
So if we accept that now 3 polls have shown a swing to Labor in the last few weeks and if Neilsen goes the same way on Monday, that’ll be them all, what is driving it ??
For mine it’s the interest rate rise – takes a month, by definition, ’till everyone’s felt that one in the hip pocket for their first new payment. Strippergate, Off-the-record-gate, APEC and all the other distractions don’t seem to be worth a hill of beans to me – the rate rise really hurt ’em.
Other theories ??
“Other theories ??”
A whole swag of reasons. Voters are rarely driven by just one factor.
#142
True, and the Beatles would be more era appropriate 😉
Slain @ 138,
That is really very very good :):)
Balanced,
I think you’re right – the interest rates rise is not an immediate hit – it takes a while for full effect to sink in both directly and the damage it does to the govt’s credibility.
I think the same could be applied to the plethora of ham-fisted attempts to create a wedge. Individually they did the govt no harm but they had a cumulative effect which fed right into the ALP narrative on the govt.
In my view the fortnight the Haneef affair went pear shaped, Howard interviened into the Mersey hospital and the RBA raised rates rise were the 10 days that ended any drift back to the govt.
In my opinion, this election will prove to be a watershed in Australian politics….for the following reasons….
First, political parties in the traditional sense have more or less ceased to exist and their role has undergone a deep transformation. This corresponds to changes in society and in the way political affairs are organised.
It is merely stating the obvious to point out that parties no longer have mass membership and are therefore not “connected” to the public as they once were. While the parties still serve as (increasingly diffuse) signifiers of political value-systems and provide the “memory” needed for political legitimacy to pass from one leader to the next, their role as the primary creators and voices of political meaning has petered out.
The main role of political parties these days is to serve as standing electoral colleges. Sub-committees of the parties – the parliamentiary parties – still hold some valuable but residual legislative functions. As electoral colleges, the job of parties is to recruit and promote possible leadership players, and to help provide the machinery needed to compete in elections.
In practice, the actual jobs of devising policy, competing for public attention, promoting ideas, generating rhetoric, interacting with the media, testing public opinion and so on are delegated by the parties to small professional organs that, strictly speaking, are external to the parties themselves. These are the plenary bodies of modern politics and they run presidential-style politics. (Really, what else could they run?)
In this context, the privileges, responsibility and meaning of “leadership” have almost completely subsumed the traditional parliamentiary and party functions of the system as we have known it.
Outposts from the past – like the Senate and its Committees still endure. But by and large, politics these days is a matter of “leadership” – of executive control, of image construction, of the use of power, of courtly patronage and of directing legislature and party alike.
This means the electoral system itself – its rhythms, mechanics, language and procedures – have become presidential in everything but name. In this system, political “meaning” has become synonomous with the characteristics of “leaders”.
Kevin Rudd and his team have grasped this and figured out ways to turn it to great advantage. For example, they seem to realise better than anyone that incumbency has its drawbacks as well as its advantages – they have figured out how to get John Howard to campaign against himself – and likewise, they understand how to trade on the appeal of “the new”.
These factors have taken us beyond the limitations of traditional “party politics”. They are the politics of “leadership” taken to their logical conclusion. Like so much in Australian political history, these changes are not so much a herald of the future as a confirmation of the past, and will therefore be irresistable.
Like I say, a watershed.
Yes, Albert F, it is the cumulative effect of legislation and bluster over 11 years. Disparate voters now have a bug in the ear.
Well I must compliment the media of doing an excellent job selling Labor talking-points over the past week or two. The latest ridiculous bout of leadership “tensions” is basically being pushed by Rudd (evidenced by his smart-arse remarks on the news earlier this evening) and a few big-name journalists in the press.
The same goes for the intelligent “election speculation” where the narrative goes something like this: ‘despite massive polling volatility showing that the ALP is headed for the biggest electoral victory since federation, Howard *must* call an election in 4 days time despite the fact he has some 8-9 weeks left in his mandate…’
Message to Howard: Remain steadfast. *Do not* handover to Costello. Keep your nerve. Call an election when *you* feel that the time is right.