Phoney war dispatches

Another old thread title reactivated, for the want of a newer and better idea. It’s looking like the war won’t be phoney for long, with a growing sense that the Prime Minister will be forced to break the circuit next week by calling an election for late October. Keeping the faith is Christopher Pearson at The Australian, who still expects a “narrow Coalition victory”. This is based on the fact that Newspoll got it “horribly wrong” in 2004, when its final poll overstated the Labor vote by 1.4 per cent and understated the Coalition vote by 1.7 per cent.

Bass (Tas, Liberal 2.6%) and Lyons (Tas, Labor 3.7%): The Australian reports Shadow Environment Minister Peter Garrett has backtracked on suggestions the proposed West Tamar pulp mill would be subjected to an analysis of greenhouse gas emissions, under a party policy covering new projects producing more than 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year. According to reporter Matthew Denholm, this “apparently” followed “the intervention of Kevin Rudd’s office and a backlash by timber groups and pro-logging Labor MPs”. On the other side of the fence, the Liberal candidate for Lyons, Ben Quin, does not appear of a mind to back down after his party threatened him with disciplinary action for publicly stating his opposition to the mill.

Moreton (Qld, Liberal 2.8%) and Bonner (Qld, Liberal 0.7%): Labor has promised to commit “up to” $300 million to begin construction of an underpass at the junction of Mains and Kessels roads in Macgregor in Brisbane’s south. The junction is located just inside Moreton and near the boundary of Bonner. The Courier-Mail records the following reaction from embattled Moreton MP Gary Hardgrave, who claims the resumption of businesses in the area will cost thousands of jobs: “I couldn’t believe my luck. I was always going to win the seat but this now ensures the swing is on”.

La Trobe (Vic, Liberal 5.8%): While Labor is wanting for low-hanging fruit in Victoria, Rick Wallace of The Australian reports this outer eastern Melbourne electorate has been upgraded to target seat status, although “well-placed Labor sources say Labor has made greater gains in Queensland”.

Ballarat (Vic, Labor 2.2%): Labor member Catherine King suffered a self-inflicted wound last weekend when Kevin Rudd’s office ordered the withdrawal of a television ad which attacked Liberal candidate Samantha McIntosh for having a $2.2 million property on the market.

Newcastle (NSW, Labor 8.7%): The Daily Telegraph reports “prominent Newcastle businessman and city councillor Aaron Buman” is considering standing as an independent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

403 comments on “Phoney war dispatches”

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  1. In recent weeks, I’ve received in my letterbox a few pieces of literature from Mr Ruddock, my local MP, AND there’s an interview with the Labor candidate for Berowra in the local paper, so the election campaign is imminent. Berowra in 2004 actually registered one of the few decent swings to Labor(3%). I suspect Ruddock’s margin could go below 10% this time.

  2. Further “news” from the bettingshops of Bennelong.

    centrebets prices @ 2pm today Howard/McKew/A.N.Other
    1.63 / 2.10 /21.00
    “” last night 1.59 / 2.20 /51.00

    These figures have the bookie’s margin increasing from ~10% to 13%,
    which is an indication of their uncertainty, and are notable for only a slight increase in McKew’s impliede prob, of about .5%, and a change in A.N.Other’s from about 1.8% to 4.2%. Centrebet payout on the winning candidate, not the party, so this change is towards another Lib, not Howard!!!
    As always for smallish markets, it’s the movement, rather than the absolute value that indicates where the money is coming. Another way of putting this is that the betting market isa trailing indicator of punter’s expectations.

    As someone said, Sportsbet has McKew @ 2.60, which looks like a good bet.

  3. HH, if these polls are near correct, Berowra could fall to Labor!!! The fact that you’ve received some mail tells me that the parties might actually be taking Berowra more seriously than previously.

  4. Yup, Lord D, true enough. Coorey must’ve had Newspoll in his head and got it wrong. The subs at Fairfax – if they still have them – seem to pick up nothing these days.

  5. Lord D: There’s no chance in hell that Berowra will fall to Labor. Too many rusted on Liberal voters and oldies here. However, it wouldn’t shock me if the swing against Ruddock is in the order of 6-8% 2PP.

  6. For your information, Mrs Pseph was polled by AC Nielsen today, It musn’t be too difficult to get people to answer as the only quotas left at approx midday were women 40 – 49 and men 20 – 29.

  7. Crispy,

    I think the reason why AC Nielsen is going to come out on Tuesday this month (as opposed to Monday) is the APEC public holiday in Sydney. They probably wanted to expand their polling period (probably through to Sunday, instead of the normal Saturday) so that they can get a better representative sample.

    That’s why I’m slightly surprised AC Nielsen is coming out this week – I though they may have done a midweek poll next week or delayed it for a further week (even though that would have put it in sync with Newspoll)

  8. Evidence for Liberals’ profound understanding of the electorate:

    “I still may not vote for the Libs because my member is from the far left of the Liberal party, too left for my liking. He’d still probably get my vote through preferences though….

    “Matthew of Melbourne (Reply)
    Sat 08 Sep 07 (12:03am”

    You can guess where it is from.

  9. Adam #35

    I’m in Gippsland, and I’ve been saying for weeks that this is a possible gain for the ALP. Key factors

    1) no Latham (worth 4%)
    2) timber workers not offside (~.5%)
    3) rapprochement(as Lord Downer might put it) between ALP & TLC in Latrobe valley (~ 1%)
    4) Well known local figure as ALP candidate (~.5%).

    Counting the Latham factor as part of the general swing, I would expect special factors to account for a further 2% in Gippsland.
    This makes for an interesting election!

    BTW, calling myself “disenfranchised”was in the nature of a hopeful slave who sees the Freedom Train coming down the track.

  10. Re Mcmillan & Gippsland both are marginal as the Labor towns of the Latrobe valley straddle them. Labor can win in a good election climate one or both.

  11. As my team did not make the final, I’ve explored Mr Pearson’s theory that the election will be close because (based on the 2004) experiance Newspoll overstates the ALP vote.

    Latham and Rudd became the ALP leader at almost the same point in the election cycle (2nd and 4th of December).

    Up to the first poll in September I can find 19 Newspolls for Latham and 17 for Rudd.

    Average 2PP

    51.6% Latham
    56.9% Rudd

    % of Polls with ALP 2PP greater than 53%

    21% Latham
    100% Rudd

    % of Polls where coalition equal or in front on 2PP

    42% Latham
    0 % Rudd

    ALP 2PP of the first Poll in September

    50% Latham
    59% Rudd

    It rough terms this suggests a 6% swing to ALP at the election if the campain goes as well as it did in 2004.

  12. “I find it very hard to believe that Ballarat is in any danger”

    It isn’t, I don’t think anyone in Ballarat would expect Catherine King not to play hard. She is a member with a solid personal base.

  13. Chris Curtis Says:
    September 8th, 2007 at 3:10 pm

    Evidence for Liberals’ profound understanding of the electorate:

    “I still may not vote for the Libs because my member is from the far left of the Liberal party, too left for my liking. He’d still probably get my vote through preferences though….

    The extreme right is worth about 10% of the vote. Unfortunately the Liberals need 50% to win.

    Who is this clown going to vote for, family first?

  14. LOL, Will. Gawd, he’s a sly bastard. “You nasty Costello supporters, leave poor Mr. Howard alone, you’ll just distract him”.

  15. Gippslander, what town. I’m originally from Maffra. Just up the road from Nambrock the McGarans home town. Sorry village.

  16. Has anyone heard anything from Costello about the leadership recently? Surely all he needs to do is come out and say “Mr Howard is the best person to lead us to the next election”.

    If he has said something similar I stand corrected, but this could be another half hearted challenge from him?

  17. Chris B #75

    Metung , on the Lakes.

    BTW didn’t Mungo McCallum say something like “when Julian McGauran was elected to the Parliament, he moved from being the village idiot of some hamlet in Gippsland to the village idiot of the Senate”?

  18. Nah, ruawake, Costello’s too depressed to think, let alone speak. He is probably unable to shift his attention from seeing his ambition disappear down the whirlpool of the coming election.

  19. Every time the Govt reminds voters of WorkChoices, even to promote it, they cost themselves votes. They would do better to shut up about it and talk about… um… something else.
    Adam 23

    Nothing left for them to talk about. Everything they have mentioned of late has turned to s**t for them, and gold for their opponents. (Though maybe that was your point.)

    I still may not vote for the Libs because my member is from the far left of the Liberal party,
    Chris Curtis 60 (quoting Matthew of Melbourne)

    The Liberals have a ‘far left’?

  20. The McGaurans are not idiots, although Peter is only in Cabinet to make up the Nats quota. They are just rich absentee landlords. Julian lives in St Kilda, Peter in East Melbourne. They inherited their money and I don’t think they have actually lived in Gippsland since they were sent off to whatever Grammar they went to. Christian Zahra (a workingclass boy from the Valley) enjoyed baiting McGauran about his family money and whether he knows one end of a cow from the other.

  21. # 76 ruawake, Mark Riley asked Peter Costello earlier in the week,

    “Is John Howard the best person to lead the Party to the next election?”,
    to which Costello answered, “yes”

    Then Riley asked, “so you would have been worse?”

  22. Know it well #77 Aunty and Uncle had Barrilda next to the serviced apartments.

    Back to politics. I was going to make a joke about the village idiot but held my tongue.

  23. Will, I don’t know! I would have let Howard and Costello have it out right there and then in front of the other 20 leaders. What is Rudd thinking?

    The fact is that if the Libs do not have a clear plan for their own leadership in the next term of government, they cannot have a plan in the next term for the country.

    Rudd must ram this in next week. I’m sure he has something similar in mind.

  24. Do people seriously think Costello wants the leadership now? He may be standing there with dagger unsheathed, prodding Howard`s back, but he doesn`t want to slip it in. He just wants Howard to know that the plank is his to walk.

  25. Useful analysis, Albert F (#65). I keep hearing all these convoluted arguments about why the polls aren’t right and overstate the ALP vote. Some of them may be true, but the simple question is – are they any more true this time than in previous ??

    If not, then the apples to apples comparisons like Albert’s seem pretty valid and, as he suggests, these all point to a significant and possibly thumping Labor victory.

  26. Adam,
    Julian McGauran didn’t go to a Grammar school, he went to Xavier College. other Old Xaverians include, in decreasing order of turpitude:
    Richard Alston
    Phil Lynch
    Tim Fischer
    Con Heliotis(Tony Mokbel’s QC)
    Myself

  27. My view on Rudd’s comments are while it may have needed to be said, he shouldn’t of said it. I think he wanted to have a go at Costello but make himself look like he will wait until Monday to start punching.

  28. Centre-
    re: the libs don’t have a plan for leadership for the next term of gov’t (don’t know how to paste quotes, sorry)

    they don’t have a plan for next week either.

  29. You think the Liberal party is going to listen to Rudd? Rudd was having fun. Of course they are not going to pay attention to what he said, it is silly to think so. If they paid attention it would only confuse them more and maybe rile them that he poked his nose in Liberal party business.

    If anything it makes Rudd look like a fair person, not wanting a man to be attacked while he busy doing something ‘important’. Just Rudd making a few more ‘reasonable person’ points – in contrast to the Liberal smear and negative attacks.

  30. Why the criticism of what Rudd said?
    It’s obvious Costello supporters are stoking the fires again, and probably leaking things to the media.

  31. ifonly…

    I’ve been thinking about your historical summary of movements in the ALP primary vote as expressed in Morgan polls. It’s good to look at some actual results too ….

    Actual voting shows quite a wide range in the ultimate primary vote – from 49.5% when Labor has done very well (1983) to 37.6% when they’ve crashed (2004). There is also a strong correlation between Newspoll’s take on Preferred PM and stated Primary Preference:

    WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE BETTER PRIME MINISTER?
    August 31 – 2 September 2007
    MR JOHN HOWARD 37%
    MR KEVIN RUDD 48%
    UNCOMMITTED 15%

    This is matched by Rudd’s positive overall satisfaction ratings (66% satisfied, 19% dissatisfied and 15% undecided). This compares with Howard’s (46; 44; 10 respectively).

    Interestingly, the Coalition’s primary vote in 1983 was 43.6% (34.4% for the Liberals and 9.2% for the Nationals.) This low-water mark is still much better than current polls are showing for the coalition, now ebbing at about 37% of the primary vote, (33% and 4% according to Newspoll.)

    If you were a Liberal looking for encouragement, you might think things can only improve from here. But you might also wonder why this would happen. In this very presidential election, Howard has a heavy handicap: a rock-solid 44% of the voters are dissatisfied with him. And while 46% are still satisfied with him, 66% – and climbing – are also satisfied with Rudd.

    Howard’s trouble is he has to move his primary vote. To do this, he has to move his satisfaction rating. But every time he appears on the radar, he reinforces the negatives as well as the positives. He just stirs up trouble for himself.

    In the end, the main movement that is occurring is the migration of support away from Howard in favour of Rudd. Howard has been trying to break out of this cycle, but try as he might, he is now tagged forever as a “clever” politician: by definition an insincere, desperate and capricious figure, more interested in his own eminence than anything else.

    In a certain paradoxical sense, Howard is now campaiging against himself. Kind of brilliant, really.

  32. [“Mr Howard is the best person to lead us to the next election”.]

    If he says YES to this, and it turns out Howard resigns, then he has just given the opposition great ammunition to use against him, i.e. that even he doesn’t think he is the best person!

  33. Will @ 90. Why do you think Rudd shouldn’t have said it. BTW, he just said it again on ABC RN. Sounded like Kina said, “being reasonable”, though I loved the sub text of Howard being distracted by the leadership speculation vs. being reasonable about there being plenty of time to focus on the election.

  34. Kina, I wasn’t being sarcastic when I said “What is Rudd thinking?” I’m sure he has something in mind. Howard and Costello having it out during APEC is a dream for Labor.

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