Another old thread title reactivated, for the want of a newer and better idea. It’s looking like the war won’t be phoney for long, with a growing sense that the Prime Minister will be forced to break the circuit next week by calling an election for late October. Keeping the faith is Christopher Pearson at The Australian, who still expects a “narrow Coalition victory”. This is based on the fact that Newspoll got it “horribly wrong” in 2004, when its final poll overstated the Labor vote by 1.4 per cent and understated the Coalition vote by 1.7 per cent.
Bass (Tas, Liberal 2.6%) and Lyons (Tas, Labor 3.7%): The Australian reports Shadow Environment Minister Peter Garrett has backtracked on suggestions the proposed West Tamar pulp mill would be subjected to an analysis of greenhouse gas emissions, under a party policy covering new projects producing more than 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year. According to reporter Matthew Denholm, this “apparently” followed “the intervention of Kevin Rudd’s office and a backlash by timber groups and pro-logging Labor MPs”. On the other side of the fence, the Liberal candidate for Lyons, Ben Quin, does not appear of a mind to back down after his party threatened him with disciplinary action for publicly stating his opposition to the mill.
Moreton (Qld, Liberal 2.8%) and Bonner (Qld, Liberal 0.7%): Labor has promised to commit “up to” $300 million to begin construction of an underpass at the junction of Mains and Kessels roads in Macgregor in Brisbane’s south. The junction is located just inside Moreton and near the boundary of Bonner. The Courier-Mail records the following reaction from embattled Moreton MP Gary Hardgrave, who claims the resumption of businesses in the area will cost thousands of jobs: “I couldn’t believe my luck. I was always going to win the seat but this now ensures the swing is on”.
La Trobe (Vic, Liberal 5.8%): While Labor is wanting for low-hanging fruit in Victoria, Rick Wallace of The Australian reports this outer eastern Melbourne electorate has been upgraded to target seat status, although “well-placed Labor sources say Labor has made greater gains in Queensland”.
Ballarat (Vic, Labor 2.2%): Labor member Catherine King suffered a self-inflicted wound last weekend when Kevin Rudd’s office ordered the withdrawal of a television ad which attacked Liberal candidate Samantha McIntosh for having a $2.2 million property on the market.
Newcastle (NSW, Labor 8.7%): The Daily Telegraph reports “prominent Newcastle businessman and city councillor Aaron Buman” is considering standing as an independent.
The interest rate rise is definetely what caused the sudden spike back to labour in the polls. Each .25% rise costs me $100.00 a month. I was talking to a friend of mine who is a die-hard liberal the other day. We both share a heavy scepticism of politicians in general. I told him how this interest rate rise really puts me under pressure. He said it’s only $100.00 mate. I said I’ve had 7 of them in a row. He sat back and thought about that. He reckons the Libs are gone. I disagreed though I told him I hope he’s right.
I still think they can buy their way back in. And I think most people on this blog are counting their chickens before they are hatched. We haven’t heard what the governments plans are for that 17 billion dollar surplus yet. That’s a lot of buying power and it makes a big difference to Mr and Mrs Aussie Voter who don’t care about morality, climate change or Iraq. Big tax cuts for middle income earners anyone? The government has nothing to lose whether it puts pressure on interest rates or not. They just want to get back in. Deal with it afterwards by blaming someone else.
So while I am going to vote against them and will try and convince everyone I know to do the same, there’s a lot of firepower left in this government no matter what the polls say not to mention millions of voters who don’t frequent blogs.
Some suggestions for songs for the Liberal Party:
If they want to have some sort of positive campaign – “Good Times” by the Hoodoo Gurus
If they want to reflect their current mood – “Livin’ on a Prayer” by Bon Jovi OR “I Guess Why They Call It The Blues” by Elton John
If they want to have a go at Rudd about Strippergate again – “Pour Some Sugar On Me” by Def Leppard
For Labor:
If they want to be modest: “It’s a Long Way to the Top” by AC/DC
If they want to be cocky: “Unbelievable” by EMF
And if they want to look desperate: “Holy Grail” by Hunters & Collectors
Lyons is a cartographic nightmare – there is only one town in the whole electorate with more then one booth.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007seats/lyons.shtml
I’m sure interest rates and various other issues helped, but this swing is being driven by WorkChoices, and since Howard can’t and won’t compromise on something so close to his fundamental beliefs, there’s not much he can do about it. Once the realisation sinks into the minds of the backbench that they CANNOT win with Howard, things might get very torrid in Canberra over the next two weeks. This is probably a good reason for Howard to go early rather than wait.
blindoptimist (48),
Fascinating post.
Just Me (144):
Theories on why the sudden poll jump – if Neilsen confirms the recent rise of the other three polls:
1. Interest rate rise
2. “Humanising” of Rudd (the NY incident)
3. The It’s Time factor slowly building
4. Labor’s IR package announcement
5. Continuing public gaffes of the Liberal leadership group
6. Conservative scribes accepting the inevitable
All of these factors flow into each other, like the tributaries of a river. It’s all flowing one way, towards the ALP, and it’s very hard now to see anything that will stem the flow or turn it the other way. The Libs have got to have a counter for each of these, or a similarly weighted factor that cancels it out (such as a terrorist attack), in order to change direction enough to win the election.
In any case, why should a terrorist attack (or similar) suddenly save the government? Who says Rudd won’t win that issue as well, should it happen? He’s won everything else.
Re Slain at 135:
I guess it’s a case of Kevvie letting the condemned man eat a hearty meal in peace before the near-inevitable execution. Very dignified on the surface, but we’ll take a mindf*ck any day of the week.
I wonder what Matt Price and Glenn Milne will have to say about the leadership tensions. Maybe Milne thinks he will become Peter Costello’s press secretary after all, but only for 6 weeks.
[I wonder what Matt Price and Glenn Milne will have to say about the leadership tensions. ]
Here is Matt Price in the Sunday Crimes 🙂
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22384879-5005374,00.html
He’s rooting for Peter 🙂
(Hypothetical conversation between Hu Jintao and Howard.
Howard: How many political opponents do you have in China?
Hu: About 20 million.
Howard: It’s about the same here.)
A-C, re Rudd’s “smart arse” remark, I’d say and agree with Alex, it’s a brilliant mindf*ck. There can be no criticism of it by Cozzie’s supporters without tipping their hand. That Rudd would defend Howard on this point is just so deliciously ironic.
Is it just me, or has business stopped bothering with those misleading “workplace reform 1993->” IR ads? Havent seen one in a week.
[A-C, re Rudd’s “smart arse†remark, I’d say and agree with Alex, it’s a brilliant mindf*ck. There can be no criticism of it by Cozzie’s supporters without tipping their hand. That Rudd would defend Howard on this point is just so deliciously ironic.]
Peter Costello was asked for a response, but he said “no comment”. He realised Rudd’s tactic, if he replied then it would just kick the ball along further.
By the way, has Downer decided its his mission to single-handedly destroy the Howard government?
Hot on the heels of the Scores own goal, wtf was that petulant outburst about his French lessons in DFAT? And the stoopid Panda jokes.
What a loser. I reckon he’s responsible for 2-3 2PP point to the ALP over the last month.
I just added up the favorites in each seat on https://www.portlandbet.com/
Came up with
2 independents
72 Coalition
75 Labor
Bennalong not listed
Adam said
I’ve been arguing for some time that despite the popular idea that Howard is the ‘man of steel’, backbenchers are politicians, and therefore pragmatic. In the face of these polls of death, they will be thinking of their own political skins, and looking to any option to save them.
It will indeed be interesting once OPEC … err APEC is finished to see what happens. I reckon it will be like a bunch of penguins waiting to see who will jump in to the sea first. Who will it be??
All of these factors flow into each other, like the tributaries of a river.
Scotty 155.
Good analogy. And it is raining hard (politically speaking).
The only thing worse for Howard than losing the election for Howard is Costello wining it or getting close. That would make him look like the real problem and cofirm that he single-handedly stuffed the liberal party.
That’s the same as last week.
[It will indeed be interesting once OPEC … err APEC is finished to see what happens. I reckon it will be like a bunch of penguins waiting to see who will jump in to the sea first. Who will it be??]
According to Portlandbet, Dana Vale is going to retire. I wonder who else will announce they are going?
Just on Berowra, which was mentioned earlier today, while it won’t fall to Labor the demographics have changed a bit in the last few years around Hornsby, lots more high rise dwellings, and quite a lot of people of Asian origin (perhaps a little like a smaller scale version of some of the changes to Bennelong). Still, if I see a naked happy dancer going through Mt Colah I will know it’s HH!
I don’t think this good for Howard considering Ms Bennett is the public facve of Worstchoices 🙂
[JUST days after promising to be transparent in releasing information about the Howard Government’s wage agreements, the head of its workplace watchdog has been accused of hiding key information that could show workers are worse off.
The Victorian Government is angered that Workplace Authority director Barbara Bennett has rejected requests for access to Australian Workplace Agreements on the basis that it would breach the “spirit” of the law.]
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22383131-2,00.html
If Costello does get handed the top job next week, here’s what he may do:
1. Hold off with the election until early Dec.
2. Mini-budget with tax handouts (Masterclass no doubt).
3. Cabinet reshuffle.
4. A slight watering down of WorkChoices (read copy Labor).
5. Iraq withdrawal timetable.
6. Adopt Kyoto (or at the very least come up with something real as opposed to “aspirational”).
Also, the Coalition’s media tarts would start singing songs of praise in complete unison.
He would still face some serious problems:
1. His image.
2. Another (likely) interest rate rise.
3. Kevin Rudd.
I agree Lefty E, Dolly’s petulant outburst was so childish–“I learnt French in 2 months nah nah di nah nah”
As one with a smattering of Mandarin, the tones and the sounds with various combinations of S J and Z are daunting, to say the least. That Rudd does it with a Beijing accent (to my ear) is sublime.
Youtube has a few videos up, unfortunately none showing Dolly’s scowl. (Bet the French think Dolly takes his style from Sir Leslie Patterson.)
Idle speculation… If ( still an if and not a when) the ship is to go down then Howard will go down with it, everything in his past indicates this to be so. The Liberals are gutted, they have no stomach for leadership change at this late hour, the hand was dealt last year and they have realistically no option but to play it. Maybe “rabbit in your headlights” is the song most appropriate?
” I’m a rabbit in your headlights
Christian suburbanite
Washed down the toilet
Money to burn”
blindoptimist #148
Great piece of original thinking – thanks for taking the time.
the West Australian libs are in more strife.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22384894-2761,00.html
Interesting article in the UK Independent about the upcoming election…
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/australasia/article2900971.ece
The Big Question: Are Australian voters finally about to turn away from John Howard?
Paul C: oh yeah, if by some freak of nature, Labor wins Berowra, I’ll go off in a big way! And yes, that includes getting very drunk and nude LOL
Don’t forget Costello supports the Iraq War and Work Choices. A change to Captain Smirk wouldn’t signal a radical change in Coalition policy.
Downers on tv (ABC? didn’t quite catch witch show/channel) 8am in the morning to discuss leadership tension / election issues. How many gaffes can he make?
Tom.
[Don’t forget Costello supports the Iraq War and Work Choices. A change to Captain Smirk wouldn’t signal a radical change in Coalition policy.]
If Costello tried huge policy turn arounds, Rudd could just attack him for being weak “Why did you let Howard run all over you if you knew his policies were wrong and bad for the country, why didn’t you challenge him earlier if you knew he was trying to wreck the country?”
re Fagin @171
What you say makes sense but for one thing. I would argue that no one will want to walk the plank for John Howard now. It is too late for change that is going to convince the electorate to swing back to the Coalition now.
Any concessions offered {ie watering down WorkChoices} could be very easily read [and rightly I would have thought] as another cynical attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for a desperate incumbent.
I hope the Prime Minister visits the Governor General sometime next week or the week after so it can be done with. Election fatigue is already evident amongst the punters and it hasn’t even been called yet.
[Downers on tv (ABC? didn’t quite catch witch show/channel) 8am in the morning to discuss leadership tension / election issues. How many gaffes can he make?]
That would be Insiders. It’s replayed on NewsRadio at 11 AM.
ifonly, hope you didn`t count that seat by seat! They do updates, check homepage. I thought it was currently 75ALP, 73Coal, 2 Ind. (Bennelong Libs $1.50 or thereabouts last time it was up)
William: thanks for another insightful election guide! Well done, Mr Moderator!
Far be it from me to provide any support to any coalition representatives, but costello is not howard. Costello, at least, has a conscience. As a leader he would have options on which to differentiate from rudd, and stop the annihalation that looks likely.
As a specific example, costello participated in the walk for reconciliation, and could immediately say that he wanted to apologise to the aboriginal people for past actions. It would, in a second, provide a circuit-breaker that would allow whatever support currently remains with the liberal/nationals to stop bleeding to parties like the greens.
It would be a bold move, and frankly, they’re going to need bold moves. Remember… people had exactly the same opinion about costellos arrogance as they did about keatings. Rightly or wrongly, he is percieved as a good economic manager. If they’d switched leaders last year, rudd would be really struggling to beat him. But they didn’t.
Now, if they actually want to have a viable opposition, they need to get rid of howard. Personally I hope they don’t. I want any political party to know that hatred, fear and divisive policies lead to political oblivion in Australia, so we never have people that attempt to do such things again.
I think the last chance the Libs had to switch to Costello was mid July when his steamer on Howards competancy surfaced.
If he’d bit the bullet and successfully challenged he would have had the time and political capital to built something.
The other choice is to jump to Malcom but he comes across at just too well fed to appeal.
In summary the choices the Liberals have now is to switch before August or face defeat. Oh dear … its September.
Quite frankly I won’t be giving even the slightest hint what might be useful for the govt, if anything. Dont want Govt trolls using me as part of their focus group. I want the biggest win possible.
Not sure if anyone has mentioned this one yet.
Rudd should have a bit of amunition to throw at Howard’s “Aspirational” GW Target from APEC.
{Now, to be realistic about this, there is a diversity of views among the APEC economies. There are some that think very warmly, if that is the right word, of the Kyoto Protocol. They see that as an important step towards dealing with the problem of climate-change, and believe if you sign the Kyoto Protocol, the climate will change. Personally, I take a bit of persuasion, but that’s just because I’m a rational kind of a person and I like to look at the facts.
Secondly, I think you have to face up to the fact that, within the APEC group, there are economies, and it’s really a Kyoto point again, that believe in setting CO2 emission targets, by particular dates. Some of them, of course, are just aspirational targets: which is code for “a political stuntâ€. An aspirational target is not a real target at all. But, some are real targets. In some economies, governments believe in specific targets and trying to achieve those targets. }
http://www.foreignminister.gov.au/speeches/2007/070409_apec.html
This was only in April this year. It seems that the right hand doesn’t know what the left one is doing any more in the Libs. Great communicators. LOL
Something that’s seemed a bit odd to me – Downer hasn’t shut the hell up all week. Not that this is particuarly unusual, but I don’t think I’ve heard him get this much attention in a long time.
I don’t think his actions are of a man who thinks (or knows) he will take the leadership next week – for one he wouldn’t win the partyroom vote, for another he is alligning himself too closely to Howard, which would defeat the point of any leadership switch anyway. But maybe he’s acting as the ‘fall guy.’ He’s the only one giving all the press conferences, the only one saying Howard is ‘definately the man for the job,’ the only one publicly supporting Howard and answering questions… so if JH throws in the towel next week, there’s just one chap looking like a twit, rather then the entire Coalition ministry (who you can bet will come out supporting Howard the very moment he declares he will definately be staying on.) And everybody already thinks Downer a twit anyway.
Either that or he’s talking as much as he normally does, and the media is simply paying more attention then usual because he is apprently ‘the man to tap john on the shoulder’ if such a tap was to be required.
I’m also wondering if Rudd’s words today was just him playing his little part to calm everything down – you can rest assured he doesn’t want a leadership change. He owns Howard, and dominates the current political climate. Rudd also knows he just needs him to hang on for a few more days, call the election, and all speculation talk will be off. A fresh face and new voice would mean he gets less TV time, and makes the election a bit more unpredictable. While it could result in him winning another 10 seats, it could result in him not gaining 10 or 20 he would have against Howard.
Of couse the question is, what would the Libs prefer? Keep Howard and get reduced – probably – to around 60 seats or so? Or pick Costello, risk being reduced to the 40’s… but with a very slight chance at keeping that majority?
They’ve brought it on themselves, of course, or maybe Costello has brought it on himself… I don’t know. There’s a lot of people who can be blamed. But I would much rather have an election campaign with Costello’s sparks, and Rudd having to battle the unknown, then simply another six weeks of a slightly hyped version of what we’ve endured for the past 30. An election which is not a foregone conclusion is much better for this country then the one we’re looking forward to at the moment.
I think most Liberal supporters are just waiting for this election to be over with, so we can start a post-howard era. Changing to Costello might just bring a spark back, and with it a good fight. I say all this as a liberal supporter who thinks Rudd might just do a good job running the country. Doesn’t mean I think he should walk into the job.
Arbie Jay
Fascinating post about landslides and though it shouldn’t be far from the public’s mind, it is incredible how quickly they forget that redlining the electoral needle needs a lot less pressure on the accelerator than expected.
An issue with a Dam can sweep a new face into power in the midnight hour to win convincingly. Insensitivity to Koalas in a Brisbane suburb can topple a Premier. A fish and chip owner (with chips on the shoulder to match) and a small populist army as well can break the big boys into cold sweat and influence unjust attitudes to our refugees into the mainstream.
I think you are right, a modest victory may be claimed by the ALP, a landslide by the people.
[Something that’s seemed a bit odd to me – Downer hasn’t shut the hell up all week. Not that this is particuarly unusual, but I don’t think I’ve heard him get this much attention in a long time.]
Well think of it this way, Downer probably thinks the government is going to lose, so APEC was the cherry on top of the cake of being minister for foreign affairs for 11 years. That will be his personal political career milestone.
To me it looked like he was wandering around at APEC as if he was king of the world.
Pi said
“Remember… people had exactly the same opinion about costellos arrogance as they did about keatings”
Well said, there is no such thing as a popular treasurer.
That Costello has held the job for so long and still has some semblance of support in the community is a tribute to him.
The differnece being that Keating had well over a year to turn that perception around – Costello would have and he is not the performer that Keating was.
#168 according to portlandbet `the money suggests (she)…may not recontest the seat`. Quite different from your suggestion that they are saying she will retire.
Pointedly, they haven`t suspended betting, as they have in Bennelong.
Albert Ross
Careful mate, your bigotry is showing. You might want to holster that baby!
Nostradoofus
Bryan Palmer has quite rightly commented on the self-serving nature of Australian voter choice at length.
It is true, our average Aussie is required to exercise a democratic right for a process he doesn’t understand, Politicians he’ll never trust and with Parties whose core ideologies are foreign to him. If this were not true, we would not have so many “feeding troph” voters on Election day (and perhaps fewer pencil-sketched naked ladies on the occasional ballot paper).
Aussies give lip service about morality, the environment and justice for those who can’t speak for themselves, but no one sees you vote, right? Besides, if they are important enough issues, someone else will vote, surely, won’t they?
For this reason on election day, we see migration back to the mainstream. We still will this year but it may not get the coalition over their line.
Generic Oracle… with an understanding like that, how come aboriginal people got the vote, and why was the white-australia policy revoked?
You sell your fellow Australians short. Most conservatives do.
If Danna Vale retires, I’ll put Hughes in the Labor column.
[#168 according to portlandbet `the money suggests (she)…may not recontest the seat`. Quite different from your suggestion that they are saying she will retire.]
WTF? If she doesn’t recontest the seat, that means she is retiring from politics. You seem to imply there is a difference, but there isn’t one.
#163 If Only
Thanks for doing this. The betting market still remains our best indicator of the likelihood on election day.
I’d be very surprised if the ALP did not bring home a record margin but, in the end, it is seats they need.
It is not enough to simply sell to the converted or win back the true-believers in Labor seats. Sure their seats will be more secure next time, but they need Liberal seats.
Ironically, FFP preferences (especially in Queensland, SA and Tas) leveraged the coalition over the line, particularly in newer electorates (like Bonner). FFP is fed up with the coalition and its lack of compassion for those who don’t have a strong voice and if Labor preferences are negotiated with FFP, this, more than any other factor, could deliver these marginal seats.
FFP contributes 3-6% in these seats to a party preferences when obedience to HTV cards is factored.
I`m suggesting there is a significant difference between speculation (based on money flowing towards Labor) that she may retire pre-election, and a definitive statement that she will.
As I also mentioned, the seat of Bennelong has been suspended from betting, presumably because they believe the sitting member is a real chance of not contesting the election. Betting on Hughes remains open.
[As I also mentioned, the seat of Bennelong has been suspended from betting, presumably because they believe the sitting member is a real chance of not contesting the election. Betting on Hughes remains open.]
It’s speculation that Howard is going to retire as well. The fact portlandbet aren’t taken money on Bennelong doesn’t mean it is anymore likely.
Pi
a) I’m not conservative
b) I mean this as gently as possible but you are naive about the nature of Australian Party Politics.
Ideology often comes through to policy not by voter mandate but by party politics. If Keating tells me he’ll save me a GST in 1993 and one of his other soap-boxes is to finally give our indigenous a fair go… whatever, I don’t want the GST!
If this were not the case, we would not have had the backlash from ONP within 3 years of Mabo. Look now, 11 years of Coalition later, and under the guise of saving our indigenous children, the shoe laces are untied. Where is your Labor government railing the injustice? Silent.
The Australian people didn’t “vote in” this ideology and they won’t restore the balance in 2007. If we change governments, this time it is because “we feel like a change” not because the streets are flooded with angry protest.
You buy the “Salad Bar” in our Australian democracy, Pi. You want the cheese bread, you pay for the cucumber as well, whether or not you eat it.
That is why the minor parties like FFP and the Greens are dedicated to their work. If they can squeeze justice through the senate with the big boys (and to their credit, both actually do sometimes). FFP with low income workers, refugees and small business owners, Greens with workers and refugees as well.
Our average Aussie is caught like a deer in the headlights, when the resounding message affects the dinner table.