Lateline reports tomorrow’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 last fortnight. Similarly, Kevin Rudd is up 1 per cent as preferred leader (to 44 per cent), and John Howard down 1 per cent (to 39 per cent). Thanks as always to the commenters who passed this on. More to follow as news comes to hand.
UPDATE: News reports the primary vote too has switched 1 per cent either way, with Labor up to 48 per cent and the Coalition down to 39 per cent. Interestingly, there was an 8 per cent narrowing on the question of which party was better for handling national security, despite 49 per cent support for the government’s handling of the Haneef case.
UPDATE 2: Report by Dennis Shanahan in The Australian.
UPDATE 3: The Australian’s graphic here.
Labor folks have to make sure they dont get arrogant and start celebrating yet. There’s still a lot of work to be done. To throw it away now based on these polls would be tragic.
Yeah economists pretty much universally said the same thing last election too. Even Dr John Hewson was among them.
In politics, perceptions are everything.
Glen, it is good to see you considering the possibility of a Labor victory.
I expected Howard to only last 1 term. It almost worked out that way, but didn’t. If Costello has done such a great job then it should benefit Labor for at least 1 term. If they get voted out in 2010 it would suggest a pretty poor legacy.
Hugo, the constancy of the polls do not represent “status quo”, as we can see in the betting markets. The “stable†numbers create a different tone the closer we get to Election Day. We can see the change occasionally pop up in things like Glen’s “stream of consciousness”.
I think Turnbull is unrealistic, he has no party support, a poor resume (the Republic), would need to get passed Costello, and it would be difficult for him to maintain discipline. But if the rot “sets in†for the government, a late change to Costello may save a few seats.
Good Lord, William, I don’t know what’s more of an eyesore – comments from our merry band of Lefties or the new layout! Blechh!
Anyway, more proof that the PM remains phenomenally popular, especially compared to his oafish Labor predecessors. The media can continue to push their favoured line about Mr Howard being on the nose, but it’s patently not the case.
Are Steven’s concerns shared by anyone I take seriously?
It’s not too bad Mr. Bowe, definitely easier on the eyes for late-night politics junkies who have their lights off.
William, it looks hideous. Really.
Steven doesn’t like change very much… 🙂
And he talks of “proof” without providing it.
The proof is his approval rating of 46% in the Newspoll, Tobe. Absolutely phenomenal levels of support for such a long-serving PM.
And it’s good to see the Government isn’t being spooked by the ongoing media campaign against Mr Howard; as reported in the SMH, they’re rallying around their leader, quite correctly judging him to be the best weapon they’ve got.
That is an absolute score out of 100 Steven. It compares well to Keating in his last year, but not very well to Rudd right now, who is over 15 points ahead. Looking at the disapproval numbers Howard is more than double Rudd.
An honest evaluation of “phenomenal” popularity is the relative comparison of PPM. Even Keating beats Howard on that score.
Don’t know if you take me seriously, Mr Bowe, but for the first time I am gonna have to agree with Mr Kaye. This new look is hard visual work.
The masthead is way too dark.
Colour scheme. Hmm.
Light coloured text on a dark (or even medium) background makes for heavy reading.That’s why few documents or websites do it that way.
And what happened to the cursor in the comment box?
There has been much talk about a change in the leadership of the Liberal party because of the latest Opinion Poll.
Firstly, does anyone really believe that Mr Howard will relinquish the leader volitionarly?
I believe that he is determined enough and egotistical enough to hold onto the leadership (and the Prime Ministership) until the last possible moment. His whole history in politics has been based on never giving up, never conceding defeat.
Mr Howard’s mantra when asked about retirement has been that he will stay while his party wants him to go. I have always through to be a load of guano. Mr Howard will chain himself to the leadership until it is prised from his hands or he dies and he will do whatever is necessary to hold on to the prize he has coveted all his political life. So if Mr Howard will not retire gracefully who has the bottle to tap him on the shoulder?
One who does is Senator Minchin. However, he is in the wrong house, does not have the numbers nor is he inclined to commit political suicide. However, could someone get him to lay his political life down for his party?
Costello is the obvious one however, he has shown that he wants the easy road to the Lodge and is unwilling to fight for the top job. He most likely has the better numbers (outside of Howard) and is acknowledge by those in the Liberal party as the next cab off the rank.
It is also worth noting that regardless of his lack of grunt he is a smart fellow and it does not take much to realise that whoever loses this election is out soon after Christmas. This means that Costello is unlikely to do anything before the election. However, the likely-hood is that the Libs are favourite to loose in 2010 (if they loose this year) and if that is Costello’s tilt at the top job then his political rises is over. The Liberal Party does not treat loosing leaders well.
In fact nothing looks good for Costello unless the Liberals win this year. This being the case maybe Costello will find what is needed to tap Mr Howard on the shoulder but I am not going to hold my breath.
Mr Downer is not PM or leadership material but maybe he could be used as Judas Goat for 2 years or so by someone with a bit of ticker.
Brendan Nelson, Tony Abbott, Kevin Andrews, Julie Bishop & Phillip Ruddock don’t have the profile or the support to be considered.
Mr Turnbull sure has the ambition and the smarts to do the job but now is not a good time to be grasping for the leadership. However, maybe he could use either Minchin or Downer to be his Trogon Horse to get him over this election and close enough to the 2010 election so if he looses that one he would still be alive for 2013.
Whatever happens with the leadership of the Liberals it sure is going to interesting.
I agree Rats, the obvious “flow on” from this poll is a discussion about Liberal leadership.
I think the colour scheme should be pale yellow on white, in Aramaic. It should have “shadduppa your face” continuously looping in the background. There should be annoying popups which download a virus into our computers when we try to close them. Lastly, you should charge $9.95 for subscription–which also gets you access to bad Belorussian porn.
OUCH
Talk about getting ones testicles caught in a grinder. I Hope Mr Hockey has a spare pair
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/man-in-government-ad-ripped-me-off/2007/08/06/1186252631522.html
Try as I might, DP, I can’t find a WordPress theme meeting those specifications. Will this do?
Whoa!
William, earlier this evening, I thought you had let your love of Tolkien’s woodland elves dictate the themes of this site.
Now we’re back to strangely familiar territory. Simple is best.
The Libs can’t take a trick. Another blow to add to Newspoll, Textorpoll, Devonpork etc.
Apparently one of the actors in the government’s ads telling us how employers can’t use Workchoices to rip off children is an employer who runs a business that has used Workchoices to rip off children.
Have a look at http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/workplace-ad-pulled-over-bad-boss-claim/2007/08/06/1186252630021.html
(LOL)
I know the election is still months away and Howard will make up some ground, but oh, it’s hard not to gloat.
Another status quo poll. I wrongly expected a shift to the government.
In truth, questions like ‘Is Howard or Rudd better to handle XYZ’ are only half useful. How many voters expect Howard to last long into another term, and are factoring that into their voting intentions?
49-36 on approving expelling Haneef are deceptive figures. Ordinarily if someone is labelled ‘terror suspect’ the administration would have a huge margin of latitude.
Glen, this is not really the board for hyperbole. ‘If the Coalition loses our democracy will be forever ruined without a check on the Labor States they’ll run rampant’
First, the Labor States have been very middle of the road, almost universally non-ideological administrations. Second, Rudd is conservative by instinct, and a policy wonk by training. Third, we’ve had a long period of conservative rule federally and in the major states (1965-72 NSW; 1955-1972 Vic) without significant disrupture. Fourth, it has been Howard who has overreached in centralising power – if anything Rudd + Labor States offers a more co-operative federalism and just the glint of the hope of a sensible constitutional adjustment.
Finally, the Liberals desperately need renewal. And after Howard’s Reign this can only come from the top. For the health of democracy at State level, I’d invert your fears and say we need a more ‘liberal’ Liberal party, revivified to replace ageing State labor administrations before they descend to cronyism – a real risk given the history of entrenched State governments of both hue.
“Coalition Central Fire Station, where is it this time”\\
‘Oh, its ok, its not Mr Howard this time…”
“Your joking, who is it this time ?”
“Joe Hockey- he spent $xM on a TV ad saying Workchoices won’t rip young people off and forgot to check if one of the key actors wasn’t being investigate for ripping off young staff in his painting business”
“Oh thats nothing, can it wait: We already have trucks out dealing with Workchoices, Mr. Howards credibility with the electorate, internal polling leaks, journo’s at the Australian giving a more honest account of the polls, a cabinet meeting this morning and …ut oh, Brownyn Bishop forgot to take the rollers out of her hair…call back on Saturday after Parliament retires for the weekend, please”.
Where is the Coalition comeback Cerdic and Steven Kaye were predicting?
If Rudd is such a “dud”, why then is he now leading Howard as preferred PM?
I’d love to know what a backbencher in a marginal Liberal seat is thinking right now – maybe time to get that resume updated?
So the entire bunch of Work Choices ads have been pulled? Hallelujah, I was getting very sick of Barbara Bennett.
You gotta feel a little sorry for Joe Hockey having to sell this dud, day after day!
Privately, some Coalition backbenchers must be cursing everything to do with WorkChoices.
I did wonder how the Oz could put a positive spin on the News Poll. Dennis excelled again with his focus on the govt not getting a bound despite approval for the Haneef.
From my perspective we have a govt that is prepared ignore the presumtion of innocence, trash the seperation of powers and play to racist views in order to get a political benefit. It does surprise me that a fair chunk of the population says this is OK. Bit scary really.
Although it does point out the wisdom of Rudd’s refusal to be wedged on the issue.
William
A couple of comments: the colour scheme is fine, but you’ve changed the sizing of the site (it used to autofit to my monitor, now it doesn’t) and the text starts out small, which I have to change to make it readable. The way it was on the old site was better in respect of setup (although thats probably me and an old machine…).
On the Newspoll, the fall in Liberal primary must be as much a worry for the Libs as the 2PP. And althought the same Newspoll talks about general approval of the Govt over the Haneef affair, I rather think its more a case of the “somewhat approve” is from people who overall don’t trust Haneef/think it “better to be safe than sorry” and see him out of the country, but were disturbed by the handling of whole case (Andrews himself was not approved, but Haneef leaving Australia was). Thus illustrating a problem with quantitative research…
But as Adam rightly notes, its 3-4 months to the election – time for a chill-pill.
Get back under the beds you reds… add the 9% “uncommitted” and “refused” who are clearly all busy and very private Coalition voters brings the figures into a line ball situation.
kevin07.com.au – kewl but where is the equivalent of the Obama girl?
That’s where the Libs have it over the ALP. That Barbara Bennett is hawt. If we could get her into a wet Kevvy Tee to spruik workplace reform then the election would be over.
I tend to think there is often a couple of weeks lag between stories appearing in the media and their impact being reflected in the polls. Huge stories can have a pretty immediate impact, and an accumulation of bad days for any side takes a while to filter through. In other words, public opinion can be a slow-to-respond beast, with a bit of inertia built in.
Howard and his mob have had so many terrible days over the last few weeks that I could see the polls moving a bit further away from the Coalition in weeks to come.
The WorkYou SerfBastards ad campaign was very poorly judged, working to reinforce the (justified) fears about this legislation. To top it off, the concerns about those appearing in the commercials adds a nice fullstop to the campaign.
The leaking of Textor polling should add momentum to the smell of stale piss hanging about Howard, making it much more difficult for the Coalition to gain traction.
The Textor polling also rumbled the Howard strategy of blaming the states, which combined with the dozens of economists who have piped in to point out that this theory is horse shit, adds to the perception that Howard is habitually dishonest and cynical.
Howard’s ministers are performing badly – Abbot (shit keeps happening), Andrews (Look, I’m basically just out of my depth), Hockey (How many times can I say “Union Bosses” in a sentence) – the list goes on.
Basically, I can see a trend towards Labor gaining momentum, which makes it even harder for the Coalition to regain any oxygen before the poll is declared. The stunts are no longer working.
Poor Joe Hockey. He spins it by saying he is decisive in pulling the ad off air!
It goes from bad to even worse for the government.
Tomorrow morning we’ll find out of the Reserve Bank really is independent or just another arm of government.
80% of economists say they will increase the rate. It is clearly necessary.
The only thing staying their hand will be if the stockmarket continues to crash today.
It probably has a way to go yet before it bottoms.
The Reserve Bank won’t be troubled by the turning of the market. It’ll relieve the pressure somewhat.
Of course we all know these polls numbers are pure fantasy. How many federal elections have been won (by either side) with a 2PP spread of more than 51% – 49%? It ain’t going to happen.
So says Cerdic Conan.
Richard Jones saith “Tomorrow morning we’ll find out of the Reserve Bank really is independent or just another arm of government.”
The RBA board is hopelessly conflicted. Morgan would have got his riding instructions last night and even as we write is instilling them into the pliant minds of the other Liberal placemen and toadies.
I think Cerdic may be right. I just tuned in to Sky news and following the Newspoll story they said “Have Newspoll got it right? Vote now in our phone poll”, and the Coalition is in front 56% to 39% (5% others)! It’s all over for the ALP if such a reputable organisation as a Sky News phone poll says so!!!
The RBA might just use the excuse of the falling stock markets to delay the increase but if that comes to an abrupt end and the inflation figures continue to cause alarm, they may be forced to increase rates even close to the election.
You could even get to the situation where other economists and commentators attack the RBA for NOT increasing rates!
They are walking a tightrope.
A poll on Sky News favouring Howard? What a surprise(rolls eyes).
Given the margin of error it’s possible there has been no change whatsoever, and that any claim that this represents any sort of new development is just bullshit. If I was still a Liberal staffer I’d be cranking up the shredder right now, brushing up the resume.
I think these polls are working spectacularly in the Coalition’s favour at present, in terms of political dynamics. Firstly, as I have said in a previous post, a spread of more than 51% – 49% is totally unrealistic and in the realms of pure fantasy, however the ordinary punters out there don’t know that. They look at these polls and think the Coalition is headed for a devastating defeat and is truly the underdog in this election. When the time comes they will think it too dangerous to switch their vote away from the Coalition because it is already too far behind (according to the polls), and they wont want Labor to score a massive victory lest it go to their heads (as it always does), so they will choose to cut them down a peg by not giving them their vote. Secondly, as Labor rides ever higher in the polls Dudd is displaying more and more hubris and triumphalism, which will inevitable turn more and more people off as they remember the sickening arrogance displayed by Labor last time they were in power federally, and this of course will translate into even more votes for the Coalition. One has to suspect that the Coalition is somehow organising all these bad opinion polls for their own advantage. And the really funny part about it is that Dudd and his lefty supporters have fallen for it hook, line and sinker. They really believe they are going to win, and have already become so arrogant as to be openly proclaiming this. Still, I suppose that’s a result of Dudd’s inexperience. He’ll learn the hard way. So says Cerdic Conan.
The only one who shares Cerdic Conan’s opinion on the polls is Cedreic Conan.
The News Corp stable would have you believe:
– the high poll numbers work in John Howard’s favour
– this is part of Howard’s brilliant strategy to win another term
– Howard will come from behind, just you wait and see
– Rudd is becoming more arrogant as time goes on and this will work against him
– The Australian people are fundamentally conservative and will never accept a Labor government
– And so on
Well… if 8 months worth of polling data isn’t enough for you (and I suppose if you’re a Howard groupie it never will be) i’m happy to cast all that aside and place reliance on ‘the one poll that counts’, which will surely lead to a Rudd government.
The Australian people may have a sense of humour but they aren’t schitzophrenic.
So says Jack Black.
”There are more than 1 million employers in Australia so you have to expect there will be some bad employers.”
Surely this is an argument as to why unions should (1) exist and (2) be allowed to actually function?
There are bad employers, in fact, probably so many that the bureaucrats aren’t likely to be able to monitor them all, so you allow an organisation who’s continued existence depends upon finding bad employers and sticking up for their workers (and by doing so attracting new members) to do the job? Seems almost ”free market” in its logic.
How much do the ALP pay you Cedric?
Conan the Barbarian, keep it up, it’s very amusing.
Stephen Kaye I think reminds us that Howard’s popularity rating remains fairly high. Leaving aside that Rudd’s is stratospheric.
How do we reconcile Howard’s lack of unpopularity, with voters thinking the relatively unknown Opposition Leader would do a better job?
One interpretation might be strength of support. Howard-haters are stronger and more numerous than ever, albeit still outnumbered by supporters. That has always been his strength, but his supporters are more luke-warm than ever.
A second, related possibility is that people give Howard a lot of credit and familiarity, but are happy to retire him like a respected old family car (Barnett all but said this). People aren’t very sentimental about politicians…
A more interesting question rather than the stock ‘do you approve/are you satisfied with the job X is doing’ would be ‘Do you approve of the Coalition government’s job’. Again, if people are factoring in Howard’s inevitable retirement even if he is returned, then his personal satisfaction is less salient than ever.
…and Cerdic the last big win for Howard didn’t go to Howard’s head and he didn’t become a listen to no one arrogant tyrant?
Just put your head back into sand like a good right wing Ostrich.
The way I read it is the people now know they have much more to fear from another 3 years of Howard and then WorkChoices II than they do from a conservative Labor party.
Jack Black – I am also happy to rely on the one poll that counts, the election. It’s always worked pretty well for the Man of Steel, and this year will be no different. Then Dudd will take his place with the line up of other failed Labor leaders – Latham, Crean, Beazley etcetera. I just hope that when Dudd resigns after losing the election that he does it in a public park, without informing his colleagues beforehand, and after going missing in action for weeks on end during a period of international crisis. I can’t wait for the Dudd Diaries! So says Cerdic Conan.
For Cedric:
Recent elections where the 2PP have been more than 51-49:
2004 – 52.7 vs 47.3
1996 – 53.6 vs 46.4
1993 – 48.6 vs 51.4
1984 – 48.2 vs 51.8
1983 – 46.8 vs 53.2
1977 – 54.6 vs 45.4
1975 – 55.7 vs 44.3
1974 – 48.3 vs 51.7
1972 – 47.3 vs 52.7
1966 – 56.9 vs 43.1
Tobe – Cerdic Conan receives no payment for his commentary. Cerdic Conan in incorruptible. So says Cerdic Conan.
Coota Bulldog – and how many of those (apart from Malcolm Fraser’s unique win in 1975) are anywhere near the spread in the current Newspoll and other recent polls? My point remains – a spread of 56% – 44% is total fantasy. So says Cerdic Conan.
Cerdic is riding the hurdy gurdy of broken dreams. Lots of movement up and down, gesturing rudely to the crowd from his colourful steed and all the time a wonderfully cheesy rendition of “I’ve got a lovely bunch of coconuts” burbling in the background.
However, all that going around in circles has addled his brain or maybe he has fallen off once too often. Perhaps he thinks he is on a real horse that is going somewhere other than to where he started.
I suspect we will be seeing a lot of Liberals in denial over the coming months. Watching Cerdic rotisseried by his own spin is not pretty, but immensely satisfying to watch.
You are priceless Cedric 🙂
I like the “so says”… “You know it makes sense”.
So says Tobe.
I think Turnbull should run dead in Wentworth. If there is a swing, he’ll lose and can then take the seat of Berowra at the by-election to be held a few months later. This will give him a safe seat in which to launch his leadership bid against Costello who will be interim leader.
If he wins in Wentworth, he’ll be leader but will be defending against a perilously marginal seat which might go Labor at the next redistribution, (the seat will have to take in areas to the west or south, both labor areas, given it’s bordered by sea to the north and east.)
Would he rather be out of parliament for a few months and take a safe Liberal seat or remain in parliament after 2007 but always worry that he won’t be there for much longer. I know, totally outrageous scenario, but still, he should think about it.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/state-spending-not-cause-of-rate-rise/2007/08/06/1186252630125.html
[‘Mr Howard has attempted to shift the blame to the states, saying that while the Federal Government has kept its budget in surplus, the states have run up $70 billion of extra debt, placing upward pressure on interest rates. But experts say that argument is nonsense. “It’s total, total bullshit,” said University of Western Sydney associate professor of economics Steve Keen. “It’s like saying that somebody dropped a pebble into the ocean and that caused a tsunami.”‘]
I think this sums up most of Howard’s false claims.