Newspoll: 56-44

Lateline reports tomorrow’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 last fortnight. Similarly, Kevin Rudd is up 1 per cent as preferred leader (to 44 per cent), and John Howard down 1 per cent (to 39 per cent). Thanks as always to the commenters who passed this on. More to follow as news comes to hand.

UPDATE: News reports the primary vote too has switched 1 per cent either way, with Labor up to 48 per cent and the Coalition down to 39 per cent. Interestingly, there was an 8 per cent narrowing on the question of which party was better for handling national security, despite 49 per cent support for the government’s handling of the Haneef case.

UPDATE 2: Report by Dennis Shanahan in The Australian.

UPDATE 3: The Australian’s graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

457 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  1. By my calculations AC Nielson will begin a 3 day poll from Thursday 9th to Saturday 11th August and it will publish in SMH Monday 13/08/07.

    That will be interesting?


  2. Optimist and Graeme, it is a very deliberate ‘War on the States’ policy. As we saw from the Crosby-Textor leak, it is about the only diversionary thing left to try. I’m doubtful if it’ll work, especially given Howard’s declining credibility.

    There is indeed a US Republican precedent on the Katrina disaster when there was a media and blog stampede to try and foist rescue inertia blame from the Feds to the state and city authorities. It didn’t really work then, but might have bought a little time.

    Howard Junior was at one point on Repub Team Bush and might’ve pinched some ideas from there. The public in general here has shown a fair ability to differentiate between fed and state issues. They only seem to crossover when one is disastrously on the nose. Not the case here, albeit NSW Labor does not have a good look (luckily the feds look as bad or worse).

    Barry, thanks for the link to the Byron Echo. Glad to get access to Mungo again after all this time.

  3. On the subject of Labor frontbenchers, I saw Lindsay Tanner on the National Press Club today. He was most impressive. He probably should be Treasury spokesman, but suffers from being in the left faction. Also there was a story that the price of AWU heavy Ludwig’s support was to leave Swan in that post.

    Still, as he identified in that speech, he has an opportunity for doing a lot of good in Finance, just as Peter Walsh did in Hawke’s Government.

  4. Don I was thinking of more direct US analogies.

    The push to turn gay marriage (a state concern in the US) into a federal ballot issue is one example – although even then at least the Republicans had the technical fig-leaf of angling for a federal constitutional amendment.

    If we go down this path we should have CIR: ie polls generated by a significant share of the public, and not just political stunts.

  5. I noticed the Crikey election guide in a bookshop window today. I’m puzzled as to why Crikey, a leading “new media” pioneer, would bother with an “old media” version of their guide, which will be out of date in a few weeks, which will contain errors which now can’t be corrected (unlike online errors), which costs money when there are free online alternatives, and which is in any case greatly inferior to the available online election guides (William’s, Antony’s and mine). Most people sufficiently election-obsessive to be interested in such things have internet access and will prefer the online versions. William, do you know why they have chosen to waste their money this way?

  6. I think a Labor government might be compelled to introduce optional preferences in the senate and abolish above the line ticket voting. That might have been the reason how the Coalition got it’s senate majority back in 2004.

    Either that or have the numbers in the senate increased to 14 for each state, increasing the senate to 88. That would mean like 168 in the House of Reps

  7. #
    Adam Says:
    August 7th, 2007 at 9:43 pm

    Bill, have you been to Jakarta or Phnom Penh? Australian pensioners live in luxury by contrast. And you, who are in paid employment, are as rich as Croesus by contrast. Are you sending 95% of your income to people in Jakarta so that you have the same income as them? I think not. Crude redistributionism (take money from A and give it to B) is a discredited 19th century notion that even serious marxists have given up on. Go and tell the aspiring home-owners in Port Noarlunga that everyone should have the same income and see what reception you get.

    I cant believe you would reply like that Adam. We are talking about Australia not Asia. Your view seems to be that people who are struggling ( yes it might be a shock to you ) dont deserve to be a part of the wealth that this country offers. Your views to me come from the Lib party and shows the similarity between both parties.

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