Newspoll: 56-44

Lateline reports tomorrow’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 last fortnight. Similarly, Kevin Rudd is up 1 per cent as preferred leader (to 44 per cent), and John Howard down 1 per cent (to 39 per cent). Thanks as always to the commenters who passed this on. More to follow as news comes to hand.

UPDATE: News reports the primary vote too has switched 1 per cent either way, with Labor up to 48 per cent and the Coalition down to 39 per cent. Interestingly, there was an 8 per cent narrowing on the question of which party was better for handling national security, despite 49 per cent support for the government’s handling of the Haneef case.

UPDATE 2: Report by Dennis Shanahan in The Australian.

UPDATE 3: The Australian’s graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

457 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  2. Hoots: “Why would we want to throw away obscenities like War because Bush said-so, WorkYou SerfBastards, Core and non-core promises, locking up anyone suspected of being in possession of a Koran, etc, etc.”

    Hoots by your comments:

    We should have left Saddam in charge in Iraq raping and killing innocent civilians

    We should let the Unions run the workplace and drive wages too high and price people out employment and increase unemployment….

    Core and Non-core promises are not limited to the conservatives the socialists like Bracks broke a core promise NO TOLLS yeah right cmon both the Liberals and Labor are guilty of that charge big deal!

    And by your comments you would flood the country with Muslims and not bother to lock up the ones who are radicalised or have terrorists as family members.

    This is what he have to look forward to if the Rudd Baron wins…God help us all…and im an atheist.

  3. Malcolm Turnbull should be the next leader of the Libs but he would be even more inexperienced than Rudd even though he has been a Minister but still Rudd could claim he’d have more leadership experience than Malcolm and anyway it is not going to happen the Libs will either pull off the Great Escape with the Man of Steel or it will sink like the Titanic…

  4. The Vics believe that they own the Liberal Party. There is no way they will agree to the leadership going to NSW. Particularly as they know JWH dudded them last time.

  5. Glen says —

    so STROP and the rest do you really honestly think that is a good thing for the country.

    Glen I never thought that a massive shellaking (landslide) was a “good thing for the country” unless you get 4-5 sets of ‘Good Government’ in a row from one Government.

    I don’t think Hawke-Keating or Howard-Costello could claim they got it all pretty right for that long, nor that they got it ALL wrong either.

    I don’t share your pessimism that the Coalition will be out of contention “for years’ as you put if they don’t get up this time around, despite the lack of leadership prospects currently visible amongst the Coalition.

    Eventually, the wave of economic growth and prosperity Australia has enjoyed for some time now will go belly up when Australia finds we can not ‘compete’ in the global economy and become banished to the ‘also rans (third world sector) of the global pecking order and the Incumbent Govt will pay the price for the shift in oil prices etc. We won’t be protected by America (as a ‘ta mate’ for backing them in Iraq) after the minerals boom ride (thanks WA) takes a hit in the chops.

    Apart from that, I don’t harbour your fears about the ‘evil unions’ and I don’t have a problem with who is in Govt in the States cf the Federal Govt. Good Government (of either colour) is Good Government –

    In fact, it would be interesting to see one party running the whole shebang (ALL States and Federal) for awhile and see how they go. For a start, the ‘blame game’ between the Federal and State Government’s would remain but take on a different dynamic. Tell me if I am wrong , but wouldnt this be a first in Australian political history (at least for Labor) ?

    Dont fret so much Glen, at least not to the point where you say you hope Australia goes to chitt if the Coalition goes down – tis not a lifetime sentence mate.

  7. Glen, I think you have a point,

    I agree that it is a good thing Sadaam was removed, but I see no benefit in a continued presence – this is a messy civil war

    I do think both sides of politics are guilty of reneging on promises, burt few have been as cynical and transparent as Howard

    I would rather a hiher unemployment rate than everyone employed without empowerment ( although I refute any connection between WorkYouAssholes and employment.

    Flood the country with Muslims? Maybe not, but I really am ashamed of a government that leads the howling pack in order to gain political advantage.

    I DO think you have some crediblke points, but I don’t share your view of this government at all. In truth, their tactics have saddened me over the ladt 11 years.

  8. Glen exasperated:

    “i mean seriously history is against Rudd people dont elect inexperienced leaders to the Lodge!”

    Well Glen, we are 95% certain that, give or take 2%, about 56% of the population disagree with you on this and has been for about the last 6 months.

    I know it’s hard, but you’ll just have to start getting used to the idea of a Rudd Labor victory.

    Trust me, the earlier you start coming to terms with this, the less painful the morning after polling day will be.

  9. Glen says–

    And by your comments you would flood the country with Muslims and not bother to lock up the ones who are radicalised or have terrorists as family members.

    Glen your ticked off, ok, but don’t play the Muslim= Terrrorist card mate, your better than that, aren’t you ?

  10. Turnbull struggles with what he already has to say on just one subject and talks around in circles with an unfortunate toffy air. He doesnt come over that well at all.

    Will they put in an Abbott or Nelson caretaker?

  11. Ditch John Howard and you’re still left with Alexander Downer, Peter Costello, Nick Minchin, Brendan Nelson, Tony Abbott, Kevin Andrews, Julie Bishop, Phillip Ruddick…to name a few.

    An improvement, but still no-one with the humanity and guts to oppose the continuing slaughter of Iraqis, the Americanisarion of our working conditions and the nationalistic villifcation of Muslims and others.

  12. No it occurred briefly under the Liberals i think in 1967 or sometime then under Holt but only like for a year or something.

    Also STROP how can you honestly say each and every State and Territory Labor Government is a good government…

    If the Coalition loses it would like for example in the USA to have:
    Labor President
    Labor Run Congress with majorities in both houses
    Labor Governors in every State and majorities in both state houses for the 50 states

    That cannot be good for a country to have one party run anything god even i would detest the Coalition being in power everywhere thats would damage our democracy.

    STROP the Liberals have more leadership talent than the ALP
    Turnbull
    Costello
    Nelson
    J. Bishop

    It would be a life sentence at least for conservative politics in Australia i mean the Libs dont have a hope in for at least 2 elections in each State to overcome Labor majorities…

    All im saying is it would be a disaster if one party run everything thats not a democracy and it would be terrible the fact that people dont have a problem with it is scary

  14. Sideline Eye Says: “the earlier you start coming to terms with this, the less painful the morning after polling day will be.”

    Actually for Glen every morning is a painful morning after…

  16. Don’t know about Turnbull.
    He favours privatising water and this will not go down well to place water resources with Macquarie bank.
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/us-deal-shows-macquarie-takes-the-plunge/2006/02/26/1140888748567.html
    The Nats are uneasy over Howards water paln and have only rolled over because of the election, they are more uneasy over Turnbulls ideas for the privatisation of water.

    As for Costello, I would say he has the numbers and if a challenge is on he will go for it, better to be PM for a few months and have a suburb named after you and your picture hanging in the great hall than to never be PM.

  17. Oh and STROP Australia wouldnt have to be best buddies with the US if we had atomic weapons which we should have got during the Cold War but nooooo McMahon had to depose Gorton and then we had Whitlam…

    If Australia had nuclear weapons, which i believe we should have them and you should too if you think we we wont be protected by the US.

  19. Glen,

    I’ll think you’ll find that within a few years of Labor winning federally, state Labor governments would begin to fall due to combination of longevity and the solidifying trend of the Federal-State / Labor-Liberal dichotomy that many swinging voters seem to actively seek out as an each-way bet when voting.

  20. I think Beattie has gone sour, Bracks did a great job, Rann is good value and Iemma is a tool if you want my opinion but I didnt say anything about whether or not I thought the State’s are currentl providing good Govt Glen. Can I suggest, without being patronising, that you catch your breathe and think about what your saying for abit. Come back at it tomorrow eh.

  21. Kina,

    Turnbull is just another lawyer with a brief. He knows his topic and can be quite entertaining in the use of language and knows how to make a point to a judge who might be impressed by his charm and erudite wit. But, the man is a phony and average punters see him as ponce.

  22. Sideline Eye

    So what happens to the Liberal Party in the meantime?

    They’re going to be totally irrelevant.

    Have they ever been in such a bad state in their history?

  24. Fellow Labor people, we still have three, maybe four, months to go until the election. A lot can happen in that time. To borrow an analogy, many have entered the conclave as Pope but exited as Cardinal. The time to gloat is when Howard does his tearful concession speech.

    Liberal people, you no doubt dislike all this unseemly gloating, but you ask for it with your arrogant and abusive posts.

    Everyone should go and have a cup of tea and lie down. It’s only politics.

  27. Peterc Says:

    August 7th, 2007 at 12:34 am
    Kevin Andrews for PM. He has shown the right style and credentials.

    That’s the funniest thing Ive read on this blog in months Peterc. Classic.

  29. Adam, you are probably right.

    I was worried we would see more of the slow trend towards the coalition tonight.

    Instead, Newspoll moving back the other way, and all the media speculation (Barnett, etc) that Howard was gone was euphoric.

    It is just politics, but after 11 years, it really feels like we might be in the end days of this shabby bunch. Yes, a lot can happen, but it would be a remarkable turn around to come back from here, don’t yu think?

  30. Calm down, Glen. If Rudd wins the Libs will still control the Senate and they will still be HM Opposition. Democracy survives 🙂 Life as we know it will continue.

    Please stop making the mistake that Howard deliberately makes that there is some connection between Federal and State. There isn’t. As has already been pointed out by Strop, good governance is good governance regardless of political stripe.

    Thats the point we have never had it so good its crazy that people would want to throw that all away

    Who says everyone has never had it so good? This is the fundamental mistake you and the govt make. Many people are going backwards and they’re not happy about it. Howard refuses to acknowledge that some people are going backwards and it is costing him support.

  31. Sideline the fact is the Coalition are at least 2 State election’s behind being close to take back any State Government…

    The Federal Government is all we have and we are so far behind in the States it is pathetic…the loss of Canberra would be a rough blow to the Coalition.

    NT – ALP 19/ CLP 4/ IND 2
    ACT – ALP 9/ LIB 7 (with just 34% primary vote)/ Greens 1
    TAS – ALP 14/ LIB 7/ Greens 4
    NSW – ALP 52/ LIB 22/ NAT 13/ IND 6
    VIC – ALP 55/ LIB 23/ NAT 9/ IND 1
    QLD – ALP 59/ NAT 17/ LIB 8/ ON 1/ IND 4
    SA – ALP 28/ NAT 1/ LIB 15/ IND 3
    WA- ALP 30/ LIB 18/ NAT 5/ IND 4 (WITH ONE VOTE ONE VALUE ALP CHANCES INCREASED AT NEXT ELECTION)
    source:wiki

  36. We have 4 months to go before the election and we only need to make up 5 percent in the polls the Coalition can win but it has no chance if 56-44 is what is the current trend when the election is called it has to be below 55-44 for the Coalition have have a sniff.

  37. Glen

    All the liberals have to do to win at state and territory level is present a decent opposition with good policies.
    I would not agree that they are 2 elections away from any win.
    I would place the ACT Tas and NSW certainly within reach for them at the next election if they got their act together.

    The main advantage of labor federal and state is that both will be put on notice to preform and the blame game stops. And if they do not preform then they will accordingly be voted out especially if there is a decent opposition.

  40. On Lateline last night Saul Estlake, the ANZ (?) bank chief economist, said that the links between government debt and interest rates were “very tenuous and indirect”.

    WorkYou SerfBastards
    Hoots

    Now that’s good. LOL.

  41. Arbie the liberals do not have decent oppositions and as a Liberal supporter i can honestly say they are not fit to govern neither is Labor but the State Liberals are shocking.

    Arbie instead of the blame game Rudd will let the States do whatever they wont which wont be good and considering none of the State Liberals have decent leaders they wont win even if Rudd scraps in…Even if Rudd wins Turnbull will beat him in 2010.

  43. “It is understood Mr Costello has been telling colleagues to stop any leadership speculation because it will only harm the Government’s electoral prospects. He believes his best chance of becoming prime minister is for Mr Howard to win this election and then step aside. “His best interest is us getting re-elected,” a senior Liberal said.” (SMH)

  44. Greetings fellow correspondents of Left, Right and Centre. Currently on a lightning trip to UK & Ireland (a friend of mine is getting married and I am to be the bride’s best man), but pleased to see that it’s business as usual re polling. Indeed, after reading the above, it’s clearly business as usual for all our regular contributors. Some of you may as well just post a default listing, as it’s clear that no one has had much new to say for a few months. I have no doubt that this is because the polls have been eerily stable for over 6 months now.

    I remain amused that certain posters think the Libs would be better off dumping Howard now. Such a move would ensure the apparent coming decimation, as it would look like panic – don’t forget, most voters don’t really give a shit about politics, so Howard suddenly resigning a month or two before polling day will look like exactly what it would be – a last-ditch move of a desperate and dying government. For better or worse, the Libs are stuck with JWH now – they will have just have to hope that something turns up to turn the tide. However, it’s clear that from the polling of the last few months that such an event would be entirely luck, as it seems it doesn’t really matter what the government does, people just aren’t buying. A terrorist attack on Oz or something else equally cataclismic could do it, but time is running out.

  45. Why doesnt the ALP call themselves the Union Party or the Social Democratic Party and why doesnt the Liberal Party call themselves the Conservative Party or the United Australia Party the only thing Liberal about the Libs is our economic policies…

  46. Amber

    I think most agree that the NSW libs would have won if the last election if they were credible.

    If labor wins federally it will put extra pressure on the states to perform as people will fell comfortable voting for a credible lib government at a state level if there is a labor govt at the federal level.

  47. Labor is not credible can you honestly trust Rudd and Swan to keep the budget in surplus and not drive up interest rates…even if they maintained a surplus it would be because of Costello…if the Libs lose they’ll win it back in 2010…Rudd would stuff it up when he actually had to make tough choices….but it would extremely naive of you lefties to consider the election over the only thing the polls do is make people think Howard will lose….

    Oh well if we do lose ill just put in the tape of the ABC’s 2004 Election coverage and laugh at Wayne Swan and Stephen Smith lol.

  48. A former Victorian Liberal state MP said to me recently: “The next Liberal Premier of Victoria in currently in year 10 at Scotch College.” I think that’s a tad pessimistic, but in the right ball-park (to use an expression I swore I’d never use). It’s probably also true in the other states (maybe not NSW).

    If the Coalition loses this election, the conservative parties will be in the worst state they have been in since 1943. Even in 1943 they were still in power in SA and intermittently in Victoria. But it’s worth remembering that it only took them six years to recover from that depth. I doubt that Costello, Abbott or Tunbull will ever be PM, but the next Liberal PM is probably already in Parliament. Julie Bishop? Chris sorry CHRISTOPHER Pyne? Alex Hawke? Sophie Mirabella? (Just kidding.)

  49. Bollocks, Ruddock’s doing the numbers as we speak.

    I just contacted him by Ouija board, and he confirmed the tilt.

    He also wishes to tell Amnesty the badge is in a Bank of NSW deposit box in Surrey Hills.

  50. Off topic and on a slightly paranoic note.
    But would the intervention in the NT have any effect on the aboriginal vote in terms of the electoral act and place of enrolement.

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