Lateline reports tomorrow’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 last fortnight. Similarly, Kevin Rudd is up 1 per cent as preferred leader (to 44 per cent), and John Howard down 1 per cent (to 39 per cent). Thanks as always to the commenters who passed this on. More to follow as news comes to hand.
UPDATE: News reports the primary vote too has switched 1 per cent either way, with Labor up to 48 per cent and the Coalition down to 39 per cent. Interestingly, there was an 8 per cent narrowing on the question of which party was better for handling national security, despite 49 per cent support for the government’s handling of the Haneef case.
UPDATE 2: Report by Dennis Shanahan in The Australian.
UPDATE 3: The Australian’s graphic here.
This is like the “dead parrot” sketch from Monty Python. Transpose a few words and comedy becomes represents real life.
“…… He’s not pining, he passed on. This PM is no more. He has ceased to be. (politically) he’s expired and gone to meet his maker. This is a late PM. He’s a stiff. Bereft of life he rests in peace ………… This is an ex-PM.â€
What does it take for someone to tap the PM on the shoulder and say that enough is enough. How many polls do Liberal backbenchers want to see.
Is it ever too late to roll the dice!
I cannot imagine that Malcolm Turnbull would soil his hands by leaking the report himself. Not even one of his loyal staffers would leak it.
No, they would get someone else to do it. It was done very professionally and deliberately. The timing was perfect.
For some time now his office has thought of Malcolm as the leader in waiting, marking time as Minister for the Environment.
“There is a tide in the affairs of men…”
Primary Vote 48-39.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22201124-661,00.html
When did Barnett get the gig as Big Brother?
Thia from the Canberra Times today:
“Prime Minister John Howard should now consider his political future, before his colleagues make up his mind for him. ”
It’s time to go…
How do you think things would go in a Turnbull – Rudd match up?
Turnbull would have to back away from WorkYouSerfBastards, but would the party let him? And would the electorate buy it?
On this poll, I can’t see how Turnbull can keep his seat if Labor wins. Why do some people believe that Turnbull will be there after the election, assuming Labor wins. He is on margin of 2.8 – so Labor only needs a uniform 50.1% of the vote to beat him.
Unless the figures for 2004 really show a huge King effect. I suspect that a number of King supporters were Labor supporters who voted tactically.
Albert Ross Says:
August 6th, 2007 at 11:18 pm
But who wiould move the spill motion?
And who has the bottle to stand?
Downer? Abbott? Surely not Costello?
Costello has nothing to lose but he’s a proven tenderheart. Downer has his mind on planting his own vineyard (retirement) in the Adelaide Hills and Abbott will save his aces for the Turnbull tilt next time around if I’m reading the tea leaves right.
And now for something really controversial. In booth-mapping Adelaide, I noticed it has 58 booths, many more than the 34-40 of most urban seats. When I compared it with the other SA seats I have mapped I find the following:
* Adelaide: 95,060 voters, 58 booths (1,638 voters / booth)
* Boothby: 95,339, 42 (2,270)
* Hindmarsh: 98,594, 45 (2,191)
* Kingston: 94,131, 36 (2,615)
* Makin: 93,909, 34 (2,762)
* Wakefield: 90,756, 56 (1,621)
Conclusion: outer suburban voters are being dudded by the AEC. I suspect the booths in Adelaide have been there for decades and the AEC doesn’t dare close any of them, while newer suburban areas in Kingston and Makin get fewer new booths. Adelaide has more booths even than Wakefield, which has a large rural component and needs more small booths. Bill! Your constituents are being swindled. Get onto it, comrade.
I can’t see where the challenge to Howard would come from. If they are going by the polls they would also have to look at the ones saying the government vote would be even worse under the Downer/Costello alternatives. Neither is there really any sign of a policy difference. The Liberals look paralysed.
Leadership speculation looks like wishful thinking – by the Liberals.
Michael I can’t see why Turnbull wouldn’t just go and buy another seat if he loses Wentworth
Costello and Downer were very quiet today and didn’t come out and defend Howard. Maybe they might be combing through their combined numbers to see if they can pull of a leadership tap on the shoulder.
On saying that I hope Howard stays to the end and gets voted out by the public.
The numbers aren’t looking SOFT for Labor as Morgan implied. These numbers are on solid ground for the moment. I wish he call the election already.
Richard
“There is a tide in the affairs of men…â€
Surely the flood has passed, and all that remains for the Libs this time around is shallows and miseries…
Any comment on the failure of all those workchoices ads. With a return like this for an outlay of tens of millions the sooner KR takes the cheque book away the better. It must be hard for MSM to see the gravytrain leave the station.
Strop saith “Michael I can’t see why Turnbull wouldn’t just go and buy another seat if he loses Wentworth”
If Mal loses Wentworth would there be a Liberal seat in NSW? I mean it is really as blue ribbon as you can get.
Anthony, any chance at all of a 3 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Green senate outcome in QLD ? Im the eternal optimist.
God I hope Howard doesn’t get rumbled prior to the poll.
Me too. He should face the direct judgment of the electorate.
Here’s one… will the party room make him go early – before APEC?
Wentworth is now more pink ribbon than blue ribbon.
If the Libs lose Berowra will be vacant soon enough.
ALbert I am sure he can find one and force a ‘retirement’ in NSW and a by-election pretty quickly if he has the right power brokers behind him.
One thing I haven’t seen mentioned on the major poll-watching blogs is this ‘leaked’ ALP polling in South Australia, which shows a 15% swing since the last election. On those figures even Downer would be in trouble.
The primary vote has gone nowhere for months, a bit like Howard himself.
I agree with Richard that this leak has been carefully timed and planned and it is very likely we will see some action on the leadership front. I think some in the Coalition are starting to think about damage control rather than of winning.
STROP – considering the hammering Macquarie Bank took last week, I hope Turnbull didn’t have too much left there – even in a blind trust – cos he may not be able to afford another seat.
I am surprised by the low margin in Wentworth. I would have thought that the margins in the booths in the peninsula part would have carried over the south and the west by more – but obviously not anymore.
Why does everyone think Turnbull would be a good opposition leader?
The times that I have saw him being interviewed, I though him overblown with rhetoric and come across as arrogant.
I think that the Liberal party will go through many leaders before they hit on the right one. Losing this election will be the best thing for the Liberals. Howard has centralised much of the power of the party around himself and without the Howard plank they will fall down and will need to have a badly needed cleanout.
Strop
I agree. As much as a change of leader would prevent a disaster (but not defeat). I can’t see anyone wanting to step-up and be the fall guy.
.. but then again – desperate times …
Personally, if I was Costello, I’d see the party bite it in the election, retire, take up a seven figue job and be able to say I was the real deal in the howard govt for the rest of time.
Adam – pink ribbon v blue ribbon
Yes all those Darlinghurst through to Elizabeth Bay queer booths are strong ALP. And they weren’t affected by the King-Turnbull stoush of ’04
I suspect though that the king-pretender stoush cut a few percent off the margin in the woollahra-vaucluse part of the seat
If Turnbull is now the heir apparent, the Libs must be tempted to install him now rather than after the election.
I wonder how the numbers would work – would Costello and his supporters back Turnbull, or could he (Costello) be the only one left on the planet who believes the Prime Ministership should still be his?
Greeensborough Growler, you may be right. Alexander might well be the one to tell him. First Malcolm would have talked to him. Alexander has no ambition now to be the PM. He has had his go.
The question is, can Malcolm move fast enough to sew up the numbers?
He can show his colleagues the Morgan Poll, at least, which shows him neck and neck with John Howard and well ahead of Peter Costello.
He may well be making phone calls right now and organising members of his Cabinet.
He won’t have a second chance. It has to be swift and clean.
I believe the election will be significantly closer with Malcolm Turnbull as the new leader.
The ALP will have to re-work its campaign and re-shoot the commercials and that will cause a delay.
In the meantime, Malcolm Turnbull would be able to lay down his vision for the country, including a republic, ratifying Kyoto, etc and introducing his new Cabinet members. There will be a swag of new faces.
Kevin Rudd would be lost in the media for a week or two while all this takes place.
ALP supporters should hope like hell that Downer, Costello,Nelson and co are too pusillanimous to make the needed change.
Of course one has to face the fact that Turnbull might make a better social democrat leader than Rudd.
STROP Says:
August 6th, 2007 at 11:32 pm
Anthony, any chance at all of a 3 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Green senate outcome in QLD ? Im the eternal optimist.
Don’t bother answering that question Anthony, Im just being a goose !
The trend, however, remains with a continued narrowing of the gap and by the time the jacaranda trees of Grafton turn purple, Howard will be romping it home in a doddle.
aj says “Why does everyone think Turnbull would be a good opposition leader?”
I think your opinion is dead right. Remember how ordinary his early parliamentary performances have been?
I just think that it has become so clear that Howard is smelling like death, and Costello is not an option, and Nelson has become a joke – Turnbull’s left as last man standing.
Labor’s primary vote is soft and will fall once the election is called…
If the Liberal Party was polling at 48% i would say its a load of %#$@ i just cannot see one party with such a high primary vote. Likewise i cannot see Kevin Rudd a man whose been Opposition leader for a few months pull off a landslide victory bigger than Harold Holt’s of 1966.
But if Australian’s do elect Rudd in November they deserve what they get…and quite frankly i hope the country goes to ^%$# if thats what the Australian people do to a Government that has given so much to the people of Australia then go and have Wayne Swan, Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd see how well the country goes without Howard and Costello.
I am hardly surprised by the polls the media day in and day out keep saying Howard is struggling and Rudd is so good no wonder people are considering voting Labor.
If the Coalition loses our democracy will be forever ruined without a check on the Labor States they’ll run rampant. The only senior Liberal figure holding a leadership position will be the Mayor of Brisbane, so STROP and the rest do you really honestly think that is a good thing for the country…If the ALP wins the Coalition will be out of government for years, none of the State Oppositions look like coming close to winning government and are behind by massive margins in SA, VIC, NSW, NT, QLD and TAS there will be no check and balance on the Unions who will destroy the country.
If the Australian people really want Krudd and Dullard then they are in for a rude awakening these people are not ready to govern Australia and will be worse than Gough Whitlam, even Gough had more leadership experience than Rudd god!
And after all you’ve done for us ,Glen!
We’ve never had it so good, right?
Is Glen p*ssed or what? ALP primary is up 1% – that’s a hardening I would have thought.
The election night party is becoming bigger at my place with these figures. Nostradamus how can 48% primary for Labor be a “narrowing of the figures”? The gov needs to get Labor down to 42% to have any chance. I cant see it happening!!
Glen thanks very much for the colourful interpritation of Coalition propaganda.
The problem with Turnbull is that is is Malcolm “who” outside of NSW and imagine the deals to put him in place. This is the failing of Howard. He has not created an internally or publiclyacceptable successor because basically he never thought he would have to leave.
Despite all the talk of Costello as the natural successor, he ain’t . So why have the Libs invested so much time and energy and the plum economic leadership spot on someone who was never going to cut it.
Costello has to step up to the plate.
Glen said:
“i just cannot see one party with such a high primary vote.”
I can. I can see Labor with a high primary vote in AC Nielsen, Newspoll, Morgan and even in Galaxy and have been seeing it for the last 6 months.
Glen also said:
“Likewise i cannot see Kevin Rudd a man whose been Opposition leader for a few months pull off a landslide victory bigger than Harold Holt’s of 1966.”
Or even bigger than the 1983 Labor victory which was won by an opposition leader in the job for less time than Rudd.
Thats the point we have never had it so good its crazy that people would want to throw that all away just because things are good now doesnt mean they’ll be good under Wayne Swan i wouldnt trust him to do his own taxes let alone run the economy.
You just wait till Swan gets his hands on the Treasury it will be a dark day indeed and i hope the people of Australia dont sleep walk into this occurrence.
Adam going by your map, Blair looks to be a safe Liberal seat. What do you think the chances are of Thompson losing it to Neuman?
Sideline Eye you need to get your facts straight….
Bob Hawke was a leader in the ACTU for decades before he was elected Prime Minister he had leadership experience and Rudd has none, zip, nada, zero i mean seriously history is against Rudd people dont elect inexperienced leaders to the Lodge!
I know thngs you guys don’t know. Lets just say the libs have given up on the primary vote and that they are going after second preferences.
Albert, they couldn’t afford to wait until after APEC. There wouldn’t be enough time to bed in the new team. In any case another month of appalling polls would make it even more difficult to save backbenchers’ jobs.
aj, why Turnbull? Because he truly wants the job, apparently unlike Peter Costello. He’s a new face. He’s very bright and self-made (though some questions may arise about some of his offshore activities). He’s polling well with Morgan. He’s very good at organising. He’s much younger than John Howard!
Certainly, the ALP would target him as a “toff”.
I think he would have great difficulty in winning but less difficulty than John Howard or Peter Costello.
I think you might be surprised to see him in action as leader.
Glen, I agree, its crazy to think a Govt could loose and election when the underlying economcy is so strong. But that is a measure of how much howard has stuffed up.
It’s been a once in a century burst of growth that he has squandered.
Quite how he managed this unique double will be debated for a while .. and the debate will not be kind to his legacy.
Glen shrieked –
“Thats the point we have never had it so good its crazy that people would want to throw that all away”
Why would we want to throw away obscenities like War because Bush said-so, WorkYou SerfBastards, Core and non-core promises, locking up anyone suspected of being in possession of a Koran, etc, etc.
We must be crazy.
Albert, it is actually a “stiffening” and The Rudd Baron is about to unsheath his sword on the cowardly and unsuspecting vassals once called Liberals.
I could have sworn Labor was going to take a walloping in this poll. Glad to see I was wrong.
Greeensborough Growler – what is that all about – the “Are you being served” an election defeat commentary?
Richard Jones saith about Turnbull “I think you might be surprised to see him in action as leader.”
I agree – the worst possible scenario for the ALP would be that the Libs elect MT as leader in the next few days.