Details at 11. Thanks as always to the Poll Bludger’s eastern states army of fast-typing Lateline watchers.
UPDATE: That’s Labor on 56, I should stress. In case you were wondering.
UPDATE 2: The Australian reports that Labor’s primary vote is down one point and the Coalition’s up one, to 47 per cent and 40 per cent. Rudd’s preferred leader rating has widened from 43-42 to 43-40. Respondents were asked how a Peter Costello leadership would affect their vote – 22 per cent said it would make them much less likely to vote Coalition and 7 per cent somewhat less likely, with only 8 per cent saying more likely.
UPDATE 3: Note the new headline. I’m sure this isn’t the first time Lateline’s scoop Newspoll figures differed slightly from what was then published.
Getting Labor into government is the priority for the anti-Howard forces. Then we can turn our attention to the problems with Labor’s policies.
What is the alternative? Returning the current bunch of arseclowns. No thanks.
Another rate rise would make it very hard for John Howard to pull back the Kevin Rudd lead in time. Even a quarter of a per cent will hit people and dent confidence.
Whilst the Reserve Bank would prefer to be known as independent, they would know the impact of a rate rise.
They are quite happy about the collateralised debt obligation fiasco in the USA and its effects in Australia. That’s putting pressure on interest rates without the bank having to do anything.
I’ve just spent three days out of my north coast rural retreat in Melbourne
and Sydney talking with many people about the election.
The consensus is that Kevin Rudd and John Howard are so close now in their policies very little differentiates them. More than one person said “what’s the point of changing if they are the same, might as well stick with the devil we know”.
I really think that Kevin Rudd has taken his “no wedge” strategy to extremes.
He is clearly a man who prefers pragmatism to principles.
John Howard may decide to play with Kevin Rudd’s mind.
He could come out with a policy so extreme that few Labor voters would support it and yet challenge Kevin Rudd to stick with him!
Work within the system?
Oh dear – dare “I” say it how conservative?
You lot would make the 70’s small liberals proud! At least our Adam is proudly an apparatchik with no effort at pretense!
Rob Dr Evil or Mini Me?
Richard Jones Ha ha “you complete me”. Ed St J Anyone that uses the word ‘apparatchik’ has already identified themselves with the 70’s 🙂
Could run a book on whether or not the Reserve Bank is going to up interest rates at the next Board meeting: Yes/No. If not, why not . If yes, how much. 1/4; 1/5/1.0 ? Till the next election poll comes around of course.
Here’s my opening bid – Yes, the Board will up the rate by .5 percent and be threatening another equivalent rise likely after the Election.
Hi Nostradoofus and Monica,
I also just saw Costello on 7:30, but after reading your comments I wonder weather we saw the same interview!!
Nostradoofus- I came away with a view that Kerrry was trying to build a sense of crisis, rather than be a professional journalist trying to find the truth. The moment he tried to attribute the authours’ comments to Costello was an absolute giveaway of his bias.
Monica- IF perception counts more than reality then today’s CPI figures cant help you. The June figure last year was 1.6%, this June is 1.2%. The last two quarters have been -0.1 and + 0.1 respectively. Inflation is falling
spectacularly on every meaningful point of comparison. However, in this sad sad world, perception counts for more than facts, so I have to agree with you. After all , complusory voting in Australia doesn’t mean compulsory good judgement
Wasn’t such a bad decade was it Rob?
Last decade anyone really believed in anything I think.
“This is not the ALP. This is an opposition determined to win at any cost.”
I am becoming increasingly amused by the sense of despair on this (and a few other blogs) over the idea that Rudd and Labor have cashed in their principles in order to win. I don’t believe that this is the case.
Labor DO have to win. We NEED them to win. But to do this they have to play the game in the way that they think will give them the best chances of winning. And if all goes well, then we may only have four months left of Howard and his nasty IR laws, the milking of latent racism for votes, and all the other shameful stuff that this government has done and continues to do.
Go back and read some of Rudd’s publications in The Monthly and some transcripts of his speeches made last year and earlier. You will get a much better sense of where Rudd will be heading when he is PM from these than from what he might be saying (or not saying) right now. But right now, he has to be strategic. What else do you want? Would you prefer that he falls into one of Howard’s stupid traps, like Latham and Beazley did, and then end up losing the election? What will you have then? No change, Howard still araldited to the seat, and maybe even a more arrogant, malicious, and underhanded PM than before.
I vote Green and I am a Green member, and I know that principle is very important to the Greens, but there is a time and place for principle and purity and a time for pragmatism. Now is not the time for purity. Rudd needs to be pragmatic and I just hope that he continues to do well because this country desperately needs a change of government. And then, AFTER the election, judge Rudd on matters of principle and purity. That will be the time to contribute towards holding Rudd accountable.
For now, I think we can all agree that Rudd and Labor will certainly NOT be worse than Howard and the Liberals, and there is a very good chance (in fact, I am certain of it), that they will be a hell of a lot better and bring about some much-needed changes, not just in terms of policy but in approach to government.
So, stop being so pessimistic and defeatist. If Labor form the new government, it will not simply be Howard all over again but with a different face – LOL – Rudd is NOT Howard.
Rudd may soon break out of ‘mini me’ mould and he probably needs to say something substantial about something soon: its getting abit boring.
Then again, while the Coalition are busy putting out political fires all over the place it must be tempting for Rudd to sit on his hands for awhile and enjoy the spectacle-
I probably would be looking to get on the front foot and score a goal or two soon: watching the other team kick own goals does get boring after awhile.
I loved the seventies. To quote Homer Simpson “Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It’s a scientific fact.”
Led Zep, Deep Purple, Pink Floyd, Fairport Convention.. I could go on..
IS IT WORTH GREENS KEEPING HOWARD IN OFFICE?
Just Me, John Howard will be going anyway, whether it be four months or twenty four months.
It might be fruitful to spend some time working on who will replace him.
At least that is what Liberal supporters should be doing.
I think you are being truly idealistic hoping you can change Rudd’s policies when he is in power.
It may just be that he is potently anti-green, just like some senior Ministers in the current Iemma Government and just as Paul Keating was.
Remember PK’s comments about “putting the Greens back into their box” and his contempt for the “basket weavers of Balmain”?
Kevin Rudd proved he was anti-green when he was with Goss. He was the key architect of that infamous koala road.
It may be a very bad idea for Green voters to give their preferences to Kevin Rudd.
It may be worth keeping the Coalition in power so that the Labor Party can re-think its environmental policies and perhaps find someone other than Kevin Rudd to lead them who really does have principles and actually cares about the planet.
[Rudd may soon break out of ‘mini me’ mould and he probably needs to say something substantial about something soon: its getting abit boring.] He will start tomorrow by showing that he can get the states to agree to cut stamp duty, and release more land.
In a typical act of desparation at his inability to gain anything from the polls following the leftist press’ twisted attempts to demonize the Howard-Costello relationship, Krudd has turned to promising a republic referendum. Haha, Measly and Latham tried that too, and it got them absolutely nowhere. Australia has voted on this issue and it is no longer on the agenda of the electorate. A republic, as far as the people are concerned, is dead and buried.
BTW Richard Jones, Howard will be going when he wants to, by his own hand. The Coalition has shown through support for nuclear power that they are the only party with an alternative to the continued pollution from fossil fuels. Labor care NOTHING about the environment!
I think Adam’s view that the majority of the electorate dumb it down to
” well-being; competence; leadership” is pretty close to the mark of the average punter out there in voter land.
Beyond that, most get bored with politics and cynical- If those three basics are covered or at least the perception is that one is has the hat trick, its a no brainer when they walk into the booth (particularly the swinging voters).
The well being of too many is suspect at the moment-Rudd appears to be conservative, smart, capable (competent) and he is clearly beginning to seriously enjoy the leadership responsibilities and is being presented and dare I suggest perceived as being comfortable in the role- JWH looks very very fidgety right now: his biological age means nothing, but his political age is starting to show signs of fatigue- his use by date is clearly visible.
Noocat said “I am becoming increa……LOL – Rudd is NOT Howard.” I have read some of Rudd’s articles, and I resonate strongly with his values. But. I am worried at how far he is going in accomodating the right. At what stage does it work against him? I’m uncomfortable now, but I’m not going to change my vote. So yes, maybe he knows what he’s doing. Doesn’t make me feel any better about it though. BTW, I don’t like using the terms right and left as I think they are mostly just labels used to diminish people. But you get my drift.
Another pearl of wisdom from Noturanus: I wont take the bait. Never again.
[A republic, as far as the people are concerned, is dead and buried.]
You mean just like the G.S.T.?
Nostradamus, you cannot be sure that Howard will go by his own hand. It may be by several thousand pencils numbering boxes. He can be killed politically by lead pencils.
Also Malcolm Turnbull really does want to be PM. Assuming he retains his seat, he will undoubtedly make a run after the election for either PM or opposition leader. He may be the one who taps Howard on the shoulder.
I assume the nuclear power you are talking about is geothermal nuclear energy? That really is clean and we have enough in one location in Copper Creek to power all of Australia’s needs for 500 years with no pollution and no radioactive waste.
I meant Cooper Creek – mistyping
I’m off to bed. Good night folks
[He (Turnball) may be the one who taps Howard on the shoulder.]
Are you sure? He doesn’t have anywhere near enough authority. If they want him to go it would be Minchin, Downer, Abott telling him time is up, because they are all from the Right. Turnball is a lot more socially progressive than Howard, so I doubt Howard would listen to him on an issue as important as the leadership.
Personally I don’t think Howard is going anywhere. He waited 20+ years to become P.M., the only way he is going is if he gets voted out, or is forced to resign due to bad health. Costello is too gutless to challenge him, so that only leaves one option…
There is no succession.
Costello is distinctly unimpressive and seems to not have an opinion on anything except finance; Hockey has become one dimensional; Abbott might pull it off if he can stop being creepy; Downer is a useless and spiteful school boy [10 years bludging in the one portfolio]; Julie Bishop reminds me of an under cover agent of Hillsong; Minchin carries himself pretty well but no one is behind him; Turnbull won’t have enough support and needs a lot more practice getting his act down right; Nelson presents too poorly for PM and lacks depth.
IF the govt loses the election I reckon it might be Turnbull contesting the next election, after tapping the unpopular Costello on the shoulder.I wonder if we will one day have a female PM in Gillard? Many years in the future.
There might be a 10% differnce in the polls but that is actually the changing of 5% from one side to the other.
Rudd may not be potently anti green – to use Richards very correct term about the NSW government – he may be worse – subtly anti green like the Vic government – no action on energy and power stations,no action on public transport, desalination (despite it being ridiculous only last October), piping Murray Basin water to Melbourne, no action on water recycling. But lots of spin!!!! As said previously, all very well to bag John Howard out on environmental issues (and there is a lot to bag!) but sooner or later the states have to be held to account as well – and it will not be a pretty picture – SA and WA seem better than the others – but there is no Arnie Schwarzenegger there.
Howard on lateline just blamed the states for putting pressure on interest rates increasing, who would have guessed that.
Looks like it vindicates Costellos view that Howard is an economic dunce with no idea.
The libs would not be in the mess they are in if Peter Costello had bee in the job for the last 12 months. The man is smart and much more liberal than JoHo and he would have had the chance to sweep out the dead wood. He is in danger of tipping over into bitterness and resentment, who knows he may be there but the longer it goes on the more likely it is to happen.
As for all this lack of ticker business, what a load of rubbish. One things the libs learnt in 13 years of opposition, and for the last years of the Fraser govt as well, is that leadership instability is a disaster. Unity is the key, Peter Costello couldhave challenged, he would have lost, what would it have achieved, for him nothing, the libs nothing. Have the labor partisans out there forgotten that when Ruddy became leader in 2006, he was the 5th leader in just over 5 years? Kim had lost twice, Simon was already past his use by date (though in my opinion hard done by),Mark was unfit to lead the country (let out from the padded cell he shared in Labors Loony Bin with Dr Evatt), Kim came back to listen and be less prolix. And then they finally realised that had to fall in behind a potential winner – faster learners than the libs (10.5 years vs 12).
And there was the survey before the last election that a very large proportion of labor voters would consider voting for the libs if Costello was leading. Reports at the time had labor petrified – that time may have passed however.
Goodness me, you Greens are like a battered spouse, scared to leave what you know – I can’t believe that many Green voters would rather Howard got re-elected. You mightn’t have noticed, but Labor hasn’t actually won the election yet. Let’s save the despair until next year.
The far Left have some history in wrecking potential centre-left governments. In the US in 2000, people were saying that there’s no difference between Gore and Bush, so vote for Nader and make a point. That worked out well, didn’t it?
Thank goodness for preferential voting.
I deliberately avoided Costello on the ABC tonight: damn, it sounds like I missed another Kerry O’Brien mauling.
I’ve no doubt Turnball wants to be leader of the Liberal Party – very ambitious!
[Howard on lateline just blamed the states for putting pressure on interest rates increasing, who would have guessed that.
Looks like it vindicates Costellos view that Howard is an economic dunce with no idea.]
This is why Howard is a political genius, he takes credit for all the good things that happen, and blames anyone and anything else for the bad things. He has done this effectively for 10 years, unfortunately for him people aren’t buying it this year.
Just Beath
Howard blames states for upward pressure on interest rates!
Hang on a second at the last election wasn’t John Howard saying the Federal Government were in control of interest rates?
This blame game has gone on long enough, Australian people are starting to see through BS like this,
You only want to take credit when it suits you in the good times but in the bad time you blame someone else!
Richard Jones.
In politics, like life in general, you often only get to choose the least worst option, and then make the best of it. I don’t know what sort of PM Rudd will make. I don’t like a fair chunk of Rudd’s tactics and policies, the Tassie forests thing is a big worry, and I don’t feel warm and fuzzy toward him personally. But the alternative is Howard. He may well only be there for 18 months or so if re-elected, but he can still do a lot more damage in that time, especially if he knows he doesn’t face electoral judgement again.
So we either choose Howard and his gang again for more of the same, albeit almost certainly without control of the senate. Or we choose Rudd, with at least the possibility of a fresh and more constructive start. That is what all the shouting and hand waving boils down to.
I can’t agree with you that re-electing Howard will force Labor to choose a more Green sympathetic and voter friendly leader. How does that work? If the elctorate don’t give the Libs a serious message this time it will only push the whole circus further to the right.
I think the best option is Labor in the lower house, and Greens and Dems in the upper house. And NEVER EVER again give any government control of both houses at the same time.
Here in the West, I am hearing housing bought up in conversation (not by me), as it was a couple of years ago. The difference is that the conversation is no longer joy and optimism, but a sense that the prices and rents are insane.
When you hear home owners (free of debt) feel ill at ease about rents and house prices, you know that there is a big, festering sore in the public mood.
The longer we have a Liberal govt the further we drift to the right which means Labor will have to drift to the right to not seem too radical compared to the incumbent. The Greens only hope is Labor getting in this time around.
Nhullunbuy,
You posted about Labor’s lost opportunity – now reflected in their current need – to educate the electorate so that Howard’s claim to economic invincibility was/is undermined.
I have despaired that Labor has lost faith in its ability to persuade, largely because the modern Party has a real identity crisis in determining what the contemporary Labor Party stands for.
The problem arose immediately after the 1996 election, when the Parliamentary Party was dominated by the shell-shocked and exhausted survivors of the long run in Government.
These people had no energy or initiative for the difficult task of re-generation, both of party organisation and policy. The near miss in 1998 vindicated the do nothing approach, which inevitably left Labor vulnerable to the confluence of events in the months prior to the 2001 election. Half-hearted attempts to undertake the necessary re-examination/renewal processes went ahead, without much effect other than to burn up Simon Crean’s limited capital.
Rudd’s philosophy and ideas aren’t particularly mine, but he, Tanner, Gillard, Emerson among others offer some hope of a coherent political program. Inevitably against the present Government, it is difficult to establish policy detail and engage in the essential marketing within a short-time-frame.
However, whatever people’s misgivings about Rudd’s perceived backsliding on issues recently, he has in the few months of his leadership, put Labor on the front foot most of the time; so much so that people have been talking about him acting Prime Ministerially, and the Libs sounding like an opposition. Since the Northern Territory intervention, Howard has tried to reverse this impression with some success. Yet the appearance of a tired Government whose time is up seems palpable.
To Nostradmus,
I do not believe Rudd promising another Republic referendum would
hurt him or Labor for that matter. Out of the issues influencing voters this rates pretty low.
I thought Costello on the 7:30 report played a poor hand fairly well.
I did enjoy the freudian slip “Howard has lest … left … lead the best government”
Yes Peter, the words do stick in your throat.
With the RBA board stacked with two Howard mates (McGauchie and Morgan), his creature Henry, and the economically illiterate Liberal boosters Broadbent and Corbett (who sit on boards of companies which have made significant donations to the coalition parties) I think we can be confident that there will be no interest rate increase next week.
[ I think we can be confident that there will be no interest rate increase next week.]
If they don’t increase it on August 7, then they will probably be forced to increase it in September, which would be even worse for the government.
A small interest rate rise will not hurt the Government but rather shift momentum in their favour. After all, interest rates remain at historically low rates, and, the Howard Government remains the trusted alternative to run the economy. Voters would be afraid of passing the baton to Krudd who would no doubt cause interest rates to rise to double digits and cause many aspirational families to default on their homes. Remember this: interest rates will ALWAYS be lower under a Coalition Government than under a Labor one, all else (eg world economic cyclics) being equal.
I have gotten so good at NOT reading Nostrodamus posts!!
They are all the same anyway!!!!!!!
In all fairness I must say Shanahan is sounding much more balanced in his commentary?
Nostradamus Says:
July 26th, 2007 at 5:47 am
A small interest rate rise will not hurt the Government but rather shift momentum in their favour-
Uranus like statements such as this pearler (above) is exactly why ignoring Noturanus is advisable unless you want something to laugh at. He/she is clearly an idiot.
There is simpy not enough housing in Australia, and that is pushing prices up (both mortgages and rents), which in turn is adding to inflation, which then can push interest rates up. We are turning from a virtuous circle into a vicious circle, and little can be done in the short-term to fix it. I think another rise in interest rates could cause serious trouble in the housing market. At some point, housing prices will have to start falling because people can’t afford the ever-increasing rents and mortgage rates. At that point, there could be panic, with a wave of selling by people who fear their mortgages might exceed their equity. It happened to the Thatcher Government in Britain, and was a significant factor in Labor’s return to power.
As for these polls that suggest the public don’t want Peter Costello as PM…similar things were said about Paul Keating. The fact is that few voters like Treasurers, because they have the job of imposing taxes and restraining spending, and speak a lot of jargon. Becoming a Prime Minister turns a Treasurer into a different person, as evidenced by Keating and Gordon Brown. Any political party these days is prepared to dump its leader, even at the last minute, if they fear a heavy defeat. Bob Hawke and Steve Bracks are good examples of very late changes that worked. I guess Bruce Flegg is a good example of one that didn’t. But it goes to show that there’s no such thing as “too close to the election to change leaders”.
re the housing market in Britain…of course, I should have said “Labour” not “Labor”!
A few more nails in Michael Towke’s coffin(today’s SMH) – a new Liberal candidate for Cook by this time next week, or Bruce Baird is resurrected.
If the Reserve Bank don’t raise interest rates in 2 weeks, won’t that make them look like Howard Government puppets?
re Hugo and Greens wanting Howard:
Oh I don’t think so…Greens might think Rudd & the ALP are being soft on a range of issues, but that doesn’t mean they’ll argue for some RCP “vote Thatcher back in and force the country to revolution” rubbish I remember the RCP doing in the UK in 1989. No, for all the hot air about forests (did any Green really believe that policy was still current???) the ALP are a better option on the environment, democracy, social issues, peace etc. However, that doesn’t mean the ALP are immune from being bagged out when they want to dig coal, support wars and chase “dole bludgers”. In fact, just the opposite. So apart from Bass & Braddon, I would expect Greens to be looking to a post-Howard future and creating as much public pressure on the future ALP govt to get the kind of outcomes they want.
Greens have a far greater chance at being heard by a Labor govt than the Howard govt. Greens have the luxury of not running as the alternative govt so they can be entirely self-indulgent in their policy choices, it wont affect them as they dont have to attract every sector of the electorate – and in fact it probably helps them. If Labor adopted every Green policy they would never get into govt.
The Greens are to Labor as the Nationals are to the Liberals, and so the pre-Democrat situation in parliament will probably be resumed after the election, where there are two major parties sitting in their corners attended to by little boosterism parties.
Damn it.