Newspoll: 55-45

Details at 11. Thanks as always to the Poll Bludger’s eastern states army of fast-typing Lateline watchers.

UPDATE: That’s Labor on 56, I should stress. In case you were wondering.

UPDATE 2: The Australian reports that Labor’s primary vote is down one point and the Coalition’s up one, to 47 per cent and 40 per cent. Rudd’s preferred leader rating has widened from 43-42 to 43-40. Respondents were asked how a Peter Costello leadership would affect their vote – 22 per cent said it would make them much less likely to vote Coalition and 7 per cent somewhat less likely, with only 8 per cent saying more likely.

UPDATE 3: Note the new headline. I’m sure this isn’t the first time Lateline’s scoop Newspoll figures differed slightly from what was then published.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

557 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Hmmm … 56 /44 … only thing that can be deduced, I think, it the remarkable stability of the polls. This is from many different polling companies over a lengthy period of time. It’s almost as if nothing Howard can do can move the polls in his direction and similarly, no matter how bad the Govt’s week is, Rudd won’t get his previous 60/61 highs. Of course, that doesn’t matter. 56/44 is a Labor landslide and it’s increasingly looking likely.

  2. HA My prediction was right!
    Where is Nostrodamus and his Liberal mates tonight? Very conspicous by their absence
    Costello’s reward will be the booby prize of Leader Of The Opposition LOL
    What pro Howard spin will the Government Gazette put on this?

  3. Howard campaigning in Kalgoolie today – yet the media were all saying the Libs are a good chance of winning seats off the ALP in the West.

  4. “Howard said tonight that CHAOS and MADNESS will reign if labor is elected.”

    56/44 tells me that people are sick of the Chaos and Madness of the past week.

  5. “Arbie Jay Says:
    July 23rd, 2007 at 10:49 pm

    Howard said tonight that CHAOS and MADNESS will reign if labor is elected”

    JWH is an idiot Arbie Jay,He was talking about WorkChoices,but he is the one that has created the madness & choas.This is the main reason the young vote (18-34) has quit the Coalition,and why many who voted for the Coalition last election won’t this time.He knew workers were going to be worse off but he went ahead with the changes anyway and the polls are suggesting he is going to pay the price for it.

  6. All self inflicted injury I’m afraid. All they had to do was accept the magistrates decision to grant bail and issue Haneef with a bridging visa as the Law Council explained today. Instead they set themselves up for a traumatic week and are now paying the price. Good result for Howard as I’m sure the GG will tell me tomorrow.

  7. While the polls are fantastic for Labour at the moment remember that the Australian pubic are very easily bought and the Coalition has a shitload of money to buy them with.

  8. “Howard said tonight that CHAOS and MADNESS will reign if labor is elected.”

    He had that thousand mile stare, his right shoulder was up, his voice was shrill, he bounced and bristled like an dodgy RSM.

  9. “Rudd Juggernaut still being held”

    “Howard halts the juggernaut again”


    that my three guesses for shanahanahanahanahan. he did sausages last time, im thinking arboreal theme this time… you know, tassie n all

  10. “Howard said tonight that CHAOS and MADNESS will reign if labor is elected.”

    It’s the same old fear tactic, only ramped up in intensity. But I don’t think that shouting louder at the electorate will make them listen now. It just makes Howard look even more irrational and foolish.

    What a goat.

  11. Sondeo
    Howard said tonight that CHAOS and MADNESS will reign if labor is elected

    Howard made those comments in Kalgoorlie, they must be a little worried about their chances there. I’m just waiting for the rest of them to chip in, Nelson with “the oil will dry up”, Pyne with “there will be plagues” , Downer with “bottoms will be smacked” and of course Abbott with “Shit WILL happen”.

  12. Andrews will declare,” We will decide who can not leave this country and the circumstances under which they will be restrained”.

  13. Here’s an interesting quote from “An Onymous Lefty” Jeremy Sear about the performance of the Coalition, a theory which this week’s Newspoll (Labor 56%/Coalition 44% two-party) may only serve to support:

    “It’s because the Coalition story about itself and reality are diverging ever more obviously. Because voters who are feeling pinched, who are seeing groceries, petrol and other goods’ prices increase ahead of their salaries, who are increasingly in debt, who can’t afford to buy a house – as soon as you start talking about how much better off they are than ever before, you lose all credibility. And the Coalition’s view of itself doesn’t allow it to concede that anyone might be doing it tough under its leadership.”

    Whether or not this theory should be agreed with, what interests me about Mr. Sear’s comments is that it provides, in a few words, a brief statement in which to analyse theories of communication, persuasion, motivation and voting behaviour with.

    Given all the money the Howard Government is spending on “advertising”, I question their understanding of the modern communication needs of “developing deep, ongoing relationships” with their publics.

    Let this be a lesson to the next-term Government – whether that is lead by Mr. Howard or Mr. Rudd –
    that this present, relatively unaccountable use of marketing budgets, expenditure most businesses could never dream of wasting, is going to provide Marketing & Communication students with a case study you could spend years unpacking and interpreting 🙂

    …From Justin

  14. Is is worth having a competition on who can get closest do Dennis’s spin tomorrow? Nearest entry has bragging rights.

    My entry would be:

    “Howard sees off Costello – Rudd now in sights”

  15. The focus will probally be on Costello’s poor poll numbers. Aim will be to help kill off any remaining leadership talk so that the coalition can get back on message.

  16. I’m sure Costello’s polling is poor – but I think if he was put in charge he would turn it round quite quickly. He could annouce a withdrawal from Iraq, push the republic issue and make a few social conscience oberserations … and he would be away and running.

    Mind you everyone in the Liberal party would then hate him – but no change there.

  17. Of course Costello’s polling is poor – everyone knows that, including Labor. That’s why they leaked highly selective parts of their own polling to the Sunday Telegraph last weekend, in a bizarre attempt to spook the Coalition into switching leaders. Why? Because they know John Howard will be re-elected and that their best chance lies with Costello suddenly becoming PM. So transparent.

  18. William, News Ltd papers, Fairfax papers, and the wire services are all reporting the headline result as 55/45. The ABC are the only ones to have mentioned a 56/44 TPP figure, but some have mentioned that the date on the Lateline graphic was 9 July (the last newspoll).

    Anybody found the full results tables? The Oz seem to have neglected to put them up.

  19. Graphic ” rel=”nofollow”>here, and yes, it’s 55-45. Looks like my earlier insinuation about Shanahan was unwarranted. I gather Newspoll does actually base its 2PP figure on the 2004 preference split.

  20. TPP 55/45

    After a week full of absolutely terrible images of Howard and Costello and the Govt in the papers and on TV – no change in voting intention? Plus Rudd picking up the real issues on mortgage affordability, food prices etc.

    With an increasing consensus that Howard is well and truly on the nose and Costello apparently more distasteful it is hard to believe that the polls have not moved. There is real margin of error working here and I just dont find it believable. It would have to be minimum 56/44. AND you would expect it to get worse as all this Howard mess sets in. In my own work area I am seeing true blue Howard supporters swapping sides.

    OK I know 55/45 is still a disaster. I wonder if there is a morgan tomorrow?

  21. Arbie Jay Says:

    July 23rd, 2007 at 11:19 pm

    Howard made those comments in Kalgoorlie, they must be a little worried about their chances there. I’m just waiting for the rest of them to chip in, Nelson with “the oil will dry up”, Pyne with “there will be plagues” , Downer with “bottoms will be smacked” and of course Abbott with “Shit WILL happen”.

    Good one Arbie- Toss in Ruddock “How dare you ask me that question”.

  22. Gary Bruce Says:

    July 24th, 2007 at 12:33 am

    Credit where credit is due Denis has produced a balanced article.

    Gary if your talking about Dennis Shanahan you may be right about this article but I read his diatribe on the front page of the oZ Weekend Inquirer after people said the attitude of the Oz was shifting. Guess what, it was shamelessly pro Coalition, at the very least lamenting the losss of the ‘glory days’.

    The notion that the Oz has softened its approach in recent efforts is fundamentally false in my opinion. But I dont want to open up that can of worms again so I will say no more.

  23. Howard slipped 3 points behind Rudd again in that poll too on the leader scale. I think that gap will increase by the time the next one comes out unless they can put out some fires very fast (Haneeb, the Tampa review, Howard knowing Workchoices was going to harm some workers for certain: for example).

  24. Nhullunbuy I’m with you there.

    A 1% increase in the Coalition’s primary poll, and a corresponding 1% drop in that of the ALP is well within the margin or error. Could just be static.

    But given the events of last week, I was expecting the Coalition’s collapse even further (even if only briefly).

    Maybe the public aren’t paying attention?

  25. For all the comments about Howard moving into friendly WA, even the West Australian’s Westpoll shows the government failing to get Swan and Cowan, with a distinct chance of losing Hasluck and Stirling.

    There is a fascination with the AWAs heavily used by the mining industry, but even the count put out by the WA Chamber of Commerce shows that these AWAs are flowing into the heavily populated retail sector – where those “huge” contracts don’t exist. It’s not that big of a vote winner.

    Perhaps it’s the coalition thinking WA’s not as bad as the East Coast. But it’s still not good.

  26. Has anyone noticed the mild mannered reasonableness of the Oz’s coverage of this poll compared to the last, culminating on the notorious editorial of 12/7? Anyone would they they felt a bit sheepish…

    Mind you they are keeping a tight lid on their blogs. I suspect many of us who were involved in criticising Dennis Shanahan on 10/7 are now blackballed by the “moderation” process. Which is both outrageous and quite flattering. A so far no blogs have been posted about this poll.

  27. That Guy Says:

    July 24th, 2007 at 7:06 am

    Strop do u think the swinging voters really care whether stopping the Tampa was illegal?

    In a word, No I dont.

    But my point was that its just another iron in the fire the Coalition will have to waste time explaining away when they would much rather be on the front-foot attacking Rudd and having Rudd struggling to fend away negative critiques.

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