Newspoll: 55-45

Details at 11. Thanks as always to the Poll Bludger’s eastern states army of fast-typing Lateline watchers.

UPDATE: That’s Labor on 56, I should stress. In case you were wondering.

UPDATE 2: The Australian reports that Labor’s primary vote is down one point and the Coalition’s up one, to 47 per cent and 40 per cent. Rudd’s preferred leader rating has widened from 43-42 to 43-40. Respondents were asked how a Peter Costello leadership would affect their vote – 22 per cent said it would make them much less likely to vote Coalition and 7 per cent somewhat less likely, with only 8 per cent saying more likely.

UPDATE 3: Note the new headline. I’m sure this isn’t the first time Lateline’s scoop Newspoll figures differed slightly from what was then published.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

557 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. On the Morgan poll, take a look at the polling for Malcolm Turnbull.
    Right now as a Minister he is as popular as John Howard. Also the Coalition would get a similar vote with Malcolm as with John Howard.
    The Coalition has nothing to lose by switching to Malcolm Turnbull right now.
    If he can get this kind of polling as only a Minister his polls would be much higher as PM.
    If the Coalition is truly interested in at least being a competitor in the next election then senior ministers should tell John Howard to step down for the good of the party and replace him with Malcolm Turnbull.
    Just heard David Marr at the Byron Writers’ Festival. He said not to expect a White Knight in Kevin Rudd. He was the one who stifled freedom of information in the Goss government.
    Come on Tony, Alex and Brendan, get your act together for the sake of your Liberal party.
    At least give us a good contest.
    The result is so boringly predictable with John Howard as leader.

  2. Me don’t want a contest, me just want a crushing, smashing Labor Landslide!! I’m the sort of bloke who enjoys it greatly when my sporting teams crush the opposition, as our cricket team has done so often.

  3. Richard Jones, what is it that you want? A “contest” would provide a too excruciating election night, and runs the real risk that the Libs would sneak back in. I’m with Lord D, I want a UK-1997 type of result. Just so there’s no doubt that Howard and his myopically evil view of the world has been well and truly repudiated.

  4. Howard will be there for the election I hope. I’m happy to have Howard there, with the vague possibility he can pull off a miracle win, just to see him get what he deserves, a thorough hiding or at least a loss.

  5. Nick Says:

    July 26th, 2007 at 10:14 pm
    1. Pundits haven’t included Parramatta which is notionally Liberal but the party has written it off because they ignored the preselection.

    2. Word on the street is that Howard’s campaign team in Bennelong is riddled with factionalism and he has employed a bloke named Jefferies in his office to run it – who is turning the old timers away from offering assistance.

    3. PREDICTION – Cadman will run as an independent. Labor will preference and with his 30 percent plus their 20 percent, Cadman will win.

    4. PREDICTION- Liberal Religious Right will confirm Towke on Monday night and Labor (or independent) will win Cook.

    5. Don’t be surprised to see Jo Gash, Jim Lloyd and/or Bob Baldwin retire closer to election.

    6. Libs may still win a seat or two in WA.

    7. Bob Debus isn’t a certainty in Macquarie

    8. If Manly Mayor Peter McDonald runs against Abbott, the Mad Monk will struggle.

    9. Watch to see if Chris Pyne hasn’t any troubles.

    10. Bill Heffernan still has one more headline to claim.

    …Some very interesting tips here Nick……..Hmmm, I wonder who your sources might be?…..You certainly seem to have an axe to grind with many within the Liberal Party. You also seem to have become a very active contributor since…..the Mitchell preselection result. Come on Nick, tell us what your real motivation is here?

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