Bouncy bouncy

Time for a new thread I guess. Not exactly news, but let the record note that Friday’s Roy Morgan face-to-face survey was the best for the Coalition since January, their primary vote hitting 40 per cent and the two-party gap a mere 55-45.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

186 comments on “Bouncy bouncy”

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  1. I agree with you Neil, if Howard waits until early December, then that would be a sign that he doesn’t think he will win. I’m very happy Kroger thinks that is when the election will be, because it suggests the coalition thinks they are screwed.

  2. Shanahan’s suggestion that the Government’s primary vote would go up with thePreferred PM numbers is not reflected in this result.

  3. Preferred PM wasnt mentioned.

    They did however allude to a Costello question which sounds like it should put to death any talk of leadership change.

  4. I don’t know if anybody else noticed it, but the graphic that said 56-44 also said ‘9 July’ – in other words, it could be last fortnight’s poll. All they said specifically about the new poll is that there’s ‘very little movement’.

  5. 56/44 ALP

    Seems the electorate has made up its mind.There must be bigger swings in the states other than WA.
    Maybe he, (JWH) is hoping to pick up seats in WA in the hope of off-setting losses in the east.Looks like it’s not working though,they are looking at a landslide in the east to the ALP at present.

  6. Is that primary, or two party preferred? The way the polls have been bouncing so dramatically lately it’s hard to guess. Such wild and erratic fluctuations mean of course that Howard is still in with a good chance.

  7. Hermione, why do you think Wentworth is out of reach? It sits on a margin of 2.6% .. Don’t let the whole idea that it’s never been held by Labor or that Turnbull is the member deter you from thinking that’s it not only possible, but plausible. Redistributions, a good Labor campaign etc = very possible Labor win.

  8. Fulvio, those results are two-party preferred. And there have not been any wild fluctuations. In fact, what has been remarkable about the past 8 months since Rudd became leader is that the polls have been VERY stable. Labor has consistently held a strong lead over the government.

  9. It’s the 3rd successive 56-44 Newspoll; that seems to imply that voters have basically made up their minds and Rudd will win easily. To win from here, the govt needs to get more than 5% back in less than 4 months; that isn’t at all likely.

  10. Sorry, Fulvio! I thought you were being serious… if you were Nostra, I wouldn’t have bothered responding though.

  11. I think Dennis’ spin will be along the lines of:

    “Howard weathers Costello interview”

    “Howard proved his mettle as PM with no change in today’s NewsPoll. Howard remains in striking distance ….”

    How do others think Dennis will spin it?

  12. 56/44 if pretty much indicative of Newspoll since April; ACNeilsen has been 58-57/42 over the same period and equivalent of a Morgan Face To Face of 59-58/41, so the last Morgan probably was an Outlier.
    Maybe this poll was closer 57/43 but some rounding… :]

    In other words no change, steady as she goes for Labor.

    Whilst I was expecting a point jump for Labor I guess maybe what is happening is a firming up of Labor’s vote as we have been expecting gravity to pull Labor down naturally. The longer Labor can keep this large buffer over the Govt the better their chances come election time.

    I am still not convinced that Labor’s vote has not gone up a little. It is hard to imagine all the governments troubles this past week hasn’t caused them more damage. I certainly see the disdain at work among Liberal supporters. The next monthly ACNeilsen a few weeks away – and Morgan who knows maybe this Friday or next.

    Howard I guess would be happy that more damage hasnt been done but worried that he is not getting oxygen to make points against Labor. There will certainly be a time when the polls do come down to more usual levels and the race is on.

  13. Don W. (some hours ago),
    Your typo confusing Rudd and Ruddock is (barely) forgivable, but you might be interested to know that the subtitles on ABC News has made the same mistake several times. They must have borrowed your keyboard!

  14. 56-44

    Over all a good poll for the Liberals considering the public airing of Costello vs Howard and the still developing Haneef story.

    Since these stories are still developing and the ALP have now made a firm Forest policy the earliy August polls will be interesting.

    I’m tipping a late November or early December poll.

  15. According to The Australian the TPP is 55/45 – ok thats a strong lead, but I find it a little hard to believe.

    I will need to see a few other polls to believe that. I still think it would not have changed from earlier polls, there has been no reason for the polls to drop and plenty for them to raise for Labor.

  16. Simon Howson Says:

    July 23rd, 2007 at 11:19 pm
    “Howard solidifies lead over Costello.” – D Shanahan

    Very Close Simon to the real one Simon- good call.

  17. Thanks for that, Peter F. Gosh, if the ABC’s doing that things could still get bad for Rudd if he gets caught up in the Cash for Visas thingo!

  18. “Labor have to win 17 seats without losing any of their swag of marginals. And of those 17, Bennelong and Wentworth are probably out of their reach. So they require a huge swing, perhaps 7%”

    I’m no Potter fan but I thought Hermione was supposed to be the smart one.
    There is no way the ALP need 7%.

    If you assume Bennelong and Wentworth don’t fall then the ALP need a uniform swing of 5%.

    You can go further and assume that not only do Bennelong and Wentworth not fall but neither do any seats in WA or Vic and the ALP need a uniform swing of 5.5% elsewhere.

    Oh and LOL @ Fagin…

  19. Plus its only 16 seats, as I believe the Poll Bludger himself has pointed out.

    Andren leaving makes no difference to the ALP majority target of 76 seats. Have 60, still need 16 either way.

    I understand here’s also a more complex, messy scenario in which ALP is the only viable government able to gurantee supply at 15 seats won – but lets not get into that!

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