Bouncy bouncy

Time for a new thread I guess. Not exactly news, but let the record note that Friday’s Roy Morgan face-to-face survey was the best for the Coalition since January, their primary vote hitting 40 per cent and the two-party gap a mere 55-45.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

186 comments on “Bouncy bouncy”

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  1. Interesting – the fact that the major media outlets largely ignore Morgan means that the relatively favourable figures for the Government have been lost in the swirl of the JWH biography and the war of leaks surrounding the Haneef case.

  2. 55-45 is a surprisingly close result – not what we’ve come to expect from Morgan’s face-to-face polling.

    But it’s worth remembering this poll was conducted on the same weekends that produced Newspoll’s 56-44 and Nielsen’s 58-42.

  3. Could it be that the polling method is having a large effect? Most people are sick of telemarketers, so anyone who actually participates in a phone poll is probably already in a pissy mood.

  4. Morgan’s been around 2% on average more pro-Labor than phone polls; now it’s suddenly 2% more pro-Tory than comparable phone polls in that period. It sounds like an outlier to me.

  8. How do we know that Morgan’s explanation for the shift is correct. Didn’t some of the budget bribes begin in July?

  9. This poll included the recent terrorism issues surrounding the Indian doctor, but didn’t include Costello’s spray in JWH’s unauthorised biography.

    Look for the next Morgan poll. Then we’ll see if there has been any movement.

  10. i’ll have a go here been waiting for a slight shift like this.
    i’ll bet $500 on the alp to beat the coaliton { libs/np} at the forthcoming election. no strings attached either kevin rudd is pm. or whoever is leading the coal. at the time of the election .
    i will deposit the bet into any account of your choosing and trust that you will do the same or at least honour your bet.
    any takers?

  12. The Sphere of Influence has revealed some more from the Howard biography. The government decided to send the S.A.S. onto the Tampa, even though the Attorney general’s department warned that it was likely illegal. Surprise, surprise.

  14. steve i want someone here to put their money where their mouth is. i could get a better return by betting at a online shop but im happy to have a aussie bet with whomever has the guts to stand by their convictions.

  18. i’ll have a go here been waiting for a slight shift like this.
    i’ll bet $500 on the alp to beat the coalition { libs/np} at the forthcoming election. no strings attached either kevin rudd is pm. or whoever is leading the coal. at the time of the election .
    i will deposit the bet into any account of your choosing and trust that you will do the same or at least honour your bet.
    any takers?

    Personally i do not think this is the venue for gambling and even though i would love to take the bet, I do not gamble as it produces misery in the community and i like to show by example. ( it might be one of only a few FF policies that i would agree on if they do have an anti gambling policy )

  19. Bill anyone can link their name to their website, as I do. Does the SA Greens website have photos installed yet? It didn’t the last time I looked.

  21. # Adam Says:
    July 22nd, 2007 at 8:17 pm

    Bill anyone can link their name to their website, as I do.

    How do i do that Adam?

  24. Predictions for newspoll tomorrow night? I think it will be a bigger margin to labor, but not monstrous. I think it will be 57-43 2pp, maybe 58-42

    Anyone else want to have a guess?

  26. The polls are unpredictable?

    Despite Howard’s bad week in the press there may be a bump in his support to reflect 55/45?

    Alternatively it could flatline? Does anyone really see Labor going up in numbers again or at this stage?

  27. Interesting quote from the Australian article “Young voters desert Howard”

    “In this sense, maybe fatigue is worse than hate,” said Rebecca Huntley, director of research for the Ipsos Mackay Report, of Mr Howard’s dilemma.”

    As I’ve said before, it’s not just the young voters. My parents-in-law are solid lib supporters in their 70’s. They don’t hate Howard, they think he’s done a good job (don’t know why). They just think it’s time for a change. Also, they live in the previously safe Qld seat of Ryan.

  30. OLDTIMER – I doubt it can go higher than 58/42 for the ALP. But if Newspoll goes to 60 / 40 for a couple of weeks then surely Howard would resign. It isn’t like Costello could do worse.

    My guess is Tuesday’s Newspoll will be 56/44.

  31. I’m going to say Newspoll will be 57/43 with the headline “Rudd fails to get big bounce out of Liberal leadership tensions”.

  32. Agree 56-44. Possibly higher at 57-43 but there are pressures going in both directions. As we get closer people tend to revert to type plus there has been appalling publicity from the book and from poll reports. The bad publicity may just edge up the polls.
    One thing I have noticed in many years of involvement with elections is that voters value their federal vote much more than their state vote and their state vote much more than their council election vote.
    People will be extremely careful how they vote in this upcoming election. They tend not to vote capriciously. The voters will make the right decision whatever that decision is. We have to trust them.

  33. I’ve always found the statement “the voters always get the election right” to be a weird concept. The voters decide the outcome, so inherently whatever they do is THE right decision!

  34. Before we all sleep walk into a Rudd/Gillard Government we should all stop and scrutinise just who will make up such a Government and how qualified these people are to run it. Aside from the fact Labor’s front bench is 70% Union bosses how many average Australian’s who dont know much about politics know who Labor’s foreign affairs spokesmen is or defence or even health and education for that matter. The ALP is a one man band because they havent got any depth whatsoever and are waiting on a small target strategy to win the election by saying nothing. If the ALP win doing this it would be a shame for Australia’s democracy, lets have each side present detailed, clear and concise policies.

    How can anybody take Labor seriously when they dont have a tax policy to take to the election???

    The one biggest thorn in Rudd’s side is he has an incompetent Wayne Swan the biggest turn off for any potential Labor voter…

    The polls will understandably head in Labors way probably 58-42…

    By the way does anybody know where Julia Gillard is??? Is she having elocution lessons??? lol

  36. I’m following the ACNeilsen which would remain steady with all the bad news for the government this week. 58/42

    I think the media in getting down on Howard for his dirty tricks should not miss the fact that all Cabinet, esepcially the heir apparnet, is complicit in these things. The media should be asking Costello why he didn’t disuade Howard and Co from Tampa, Hicks, Baby Overboard, AWB, Haneef, Iraq, WorkChoices etc. Costello is just as responsible – and it goes to his character that 1. he approved of such things 2. lacked the guts to stop such things.

  37. Hi All,

    Does anyone else think the conclusion of the Morgan poll is an example of pollsters finding results that they want to find? Morgan says the following:

    Haneef was taken into custody on July 2 in connection with two failed terror plots in the UK …“The swing back to the L-NP is not surprising as historically the Morgan Poll has shown that when security-related events get significant press coverage (Tampa) electors rally behind the incumbent Government.”

    My point is that surely the poll reflects the actions taken in relation to aboriginal communities and has nothing to do with the good doctor in Brisbane?

    As a general comment, I have never been able to understnad the chronic idiocy of leftists in attributing the 2001 election win to Tampa issues, when Septmember 11 surely had the defining influence. Now we have a poll that is concluding that the incompetent, weak as piss attempt to set fire to an airport in England has produced a significant turn around in Australian voting intentions? The conclusion I’ve reched from the footage was that a couple of incompetent twits managed to set fire to themselves and disabled a couple of automatic doors in glasgow. Oh, and a perfectly good land rover got wasted, for which the survivor should get shot. But National Security threat, strong enough to change voting intentions, c’mon please…..

    Surely if there is a change in the figures, it shoudl be connected to the move into Aboriginal areas?

  38. Let’s face it everybody even Kevin Rudd knows that the best result for the ALP is to face ‘Deputy Dawg’ at the election and not ‘honest john’ either way the Coalition suffers…The Government will be praying for a 4 point jump in newspoll once the election is called because if not Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull should be gearing themselves up for a long-time in opposition.

  39. I think Costello supported those things because he agreed with them. Sadly I don’t think the fact Howard was advised to do something different will really change much. People just don’t care that Howard wanted the parliament to pass laws that over rid every other law, including the criminal code. The fact a government willing to pass laws of that sort was re-elected proves that most people don’t really care about human rights. We just take so much for granted.

  40. Pseph Says:

    July 22nd, 2007 at 10:53 pm
    I’m going to say Newspoll will be 57/43 with the headline “Rudd fails to get big bounce out of Liberal leadership tensions”.

    Once again your headlines crack me up Pseph ..thanks mate.

  41. WOW, Glenn Milne goes after Howard again, so that’s twice in two days:
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22115759-7583,00.html

    Here’s the choice bit:
    “Leaked Labor research over the weekend [i.e. that Milne himself published!] should give Liberal MPs pause for thought. With findings summarising the electorate’s judgment on Howard as “old and sneaky” the private polling reinforces that it is the Prime Minister who is overwhelmingly the problem, not the Government’s policies or economic record. Or his relationship with Costello. When it comes to the voters, this time, it seems, it really is personal.”

    It really seems to me that Milne thinks this is his only chance to be Costello’s press secretary. Costello could earn millions in law, so maybe Milne knows he won’t hang around to be leader of the opposition.

  43. How accurate is this “leaked Labor polling” heh? We don’t know who did the research, what methods they applied, or anything. I’d take it with a grain of salt.

    We can’t know whether it’s true or not. Probably is safe to assume it was genuinely leaked. The only question is: why?

  44. Yes leaked internal party polling always reeks of agenda.

    So the Labor agenda in this instance appears to be to panic the Liberals into a change of leader.

    One wonders whether that’s really in Labor’s best interests.

  45. Costello as leader will cost the Libs even more seats. Costello has the advantage of being behind Howard all these years. Can he hack it out in front all by himself – when most the electorate dont like him anyway? It is a poisoned challice. He should instead live to fight another day.

  46. Glen Says:

    July 22nd, 2007 at 11:04 pm
    Before we all sleep walk into a Rudd/Gillard Government we should all stop and scrutinise just who will make up such a Government ……

    That reads like your reading from the Liberal Party Handbook Glen so Im going to ignore most of it.

    What you said about Gillard might be right though- maybe Labor’s ‘secret polls’ indicated she is on the nose with the electorate so they shoved her in the corner. She has been strangely absent in the media for a few weeks now.
    Maybe it was the mess she made of threatening businesses some time back that put a few voters off and she stirs up the ‘union power’ consciousness (negative) so making her a ‘small target’ makes sense.

  47. PS Glen you depiction of the electorate ‘sleep walking’ to the election is very Abbottesque and will alienate more punters than it endears; I would lose that discourse pretty quickly if I were backing the Coalition.

  48. I’ve argued for a while Gillard and Swan are major duds. If Rudd hadn’t needed Gillard’s numbers to win the leadership, I think you’d have a more conservative/anti-union person as Shadow Industrial Relations spokesman, like Craig Emerson. Glen makes a good point. Most of the shadow front bench could be classed as either deadwood, invisible or inadequate: Rudd, Garrett, Tony Burke, Emerson and Chris Bowen are the only shining lights. The likes of Shorten and Debus will slot into that cabinet or shadow cabinet easily.
    As for the other side: this Haneef stuff is fast turning into a farce, and hardly the “Tampa” solution Howard might have been hoping for.
    And, the revelations about the Tampa incident in today’s Fairfax papers only reinforce the impression of Howard as a mean and tricky politician.
    Newspoll prediction: 56-44 lead for the ALP

  50. Strop you don’t understand. The electorate only make a considered vote when they vote coalition, otherwise they’ve done what Henry Bolte once said about the voters when the Cain government was elected in Victoria -“They’ve gone mad.” The born to rule attitude is alive and well.

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