Newspoll: 55-45

Details at 11. Thanks as always to the Poll Bludger’s eastern states army of fast-typing Lateline watchers.

UPDATE: That’s Labor on 56, I should stress. In case you were wondering.

UPDATE 2: The Australian reports that Labor’s primary vote is down one point and the Coalition’s up one, to 47 per cent and 40 per cent. Rudd’s preferred leader rating has widened from 43-42 to 43-40. Respondents were asked how a Peter Costello leadership would affect their vote – 22 per cent said it would make them much less likely to vote Coalition and 7 per cent somewhat less likely, with only 8 per cent saying more likely.

UPDATE 3: Note the new headline. I’m sure this isn’t the first time Lateline’s scoop Newspoll figures differed slightly from what was then published.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

557 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. It seems Peter Brent (Mumble. 26 July 2007) has addressed the comrade-in-arms’ point about JWH being “punished” electorally because of what he said about interest rates at the last election, in the event of an interest rate rise. It is certainly possible and not “ridiculous”, as one poster so uncharitably put it yesterday, that the fear of the future and the alternative government’s unknown credentials on economic management are apt to concentrate the minds of the floating voters (not the partisans) who will decide the election outcome. Incidentally, the man so despised by many posters (Mr. Shanahan) appears, on balance, to favour the view that an interest rate rise is an electoral negative for the Government.

  2. Stamp duty & land releases if that is the solution Rudd comes up with today he is as stupid as the State Premiers who have fallen for this really really stupid line.

    I live in a new development. Most of the land has been zoned urban and ready to be cut up for more than 12 years. Just the developers aren’t in a rush. They are not going to let land prices fall. Stamp duty … oh please.

  3. I sat next to one, a super rich labor land-developer not so long ago at thingy. But sadly I’m just your average mortagee in mortgage belt land. No portfolio’s of investments being paid for with dodgy tax treatment for me (yet).

  4. Help, I agree with Shanahan!! A mortgagee cops another interest rise and says to themselves “I’m going to reward this government, the one that promised low interest rates last election, with my vote because 17 long years ago Labor had high interest rates and can never be trusted again.” I’m sure there are some out there that would think that but they wouldn’t be voting Labor anyway. If the theory Mumble supports is right then why haven’t the last lot of interest rate rises seen an improvement in the coalition’s vote? People think about the now and not what happened 17 years ago. They’ll blame this government, not Labor, for any present hardship. The thought that the other mob couldn’t do any worse will prevail.

  5. David Charles quotes Peter Brent as saying that higher interest rates may be a positive for the government. Usually I like Peter Brent’s analysis, but I think he is stretching this one a bit. His argument relies on events in 1993. Keating was able to say something like “if interest rates are high now, imagine what they’d be like if Hewson gets in with his wacky policies”. I can’t quite see the same argument washing now, mainly because the ALP don’t seem to have any policies, wacky or otherwise, and also because the Libs promised lower interest rates if they got in, a promise they would be seen to have been unable to keep. (I know there was some subtle point about “lower than they would be under Labor” but I don’t think that would help them much.)

    Still I suppose if interest rates looked like going through the roof (real-estate joke intended) it might scare some voters back to the Libs. But I’m with Dennis on this one. Higher interest rates would have to be a net negative for the gov.

  6. I think the Government Gazette and Shanahan have been somewhat shocked into “balanced reporting”. I give them credit for that. I just hope it lasts.

  7. Nostradamus, as soon as I see the name calling I stop reading your contributions. Two things go through my mind at that point:
    – you use childish name calling to fill the void left by your lack of sensible argument.
    – it’s time for you to grow up.

  8. Something has changed over at the Oz. Along with the redecoration, it looks like they have a new editorial policy. It’s almost like Chris Mitchell ‘going’ mumble was a last spiteful act under an old policy. Has Rupert had a word? Was there some agreement that if Rudd was still ahead in the polls in July that Murdoch would switch his support from the govt? Just what did they talk about?

  9. Why does everyone assume that Howard will see sense and leave or get tapped on the shoulder should he win the next election?

    If Howard wins the next election he will be elevated to god-like status in the Liberal pantheon. He will be untouchable.

    If Howard wins the next election he will state once again, I’ll be there as long as the party wants me…

    If he wins the next election he start thinking… one more election victory at the 14/15 year mark of my reign… and I’ll be getting real close to Pig-Iron… just one more election and I’ll be the greatest ever…

    Don’t kid yourselves… this is the best chance ever to get rid of Howard and all that he represents. If Howard wins this election he will remain.

  10. I usually find merit in what Peter Brent has to say too but this really is a no brainer-

    Up the interest rates in August (or worse still, September) and many swinging voters will remember JWHs “Keeping interest rates low” (a very qualified statement I concede) and some at least will find an interest rate hike yet another reason to tell JWH his use by date is glaringly obvious.

    I think the Reserve Bank Governor has the courage to do it too, election year or not. So, I am sticking my neck and and saying he will whack on half a percent in August/September and hint at another half percent in the next quarter- Dont forget Christmas is just around the corner and people spend up big over the holiday season.

  11. I think it will go up by 0.25 percent on August 7. Then the government will be hoping for cheaper oil and food prices else it will go up again by another 0.25 in September.

    This government has made this problem for themselves by saying that they controlled interest rate outcomes, when they actually don’t.

  12. Just a point, I think the ‘very qualified statement’ of Howard, which is clearly promising nothing at all, if you are a high court judge, read and played the way it was intended in the marginals.

    No interest rate rises. That was the message Howard tried to put across, and IMHO it worked. Of course now any backlash would have to be measure against how the voters understood the promise, not how a lawyer might deconstruct it.

  13. The fear of the unkown cuts both ways. This is why the governments introduction of “workchoices” and the related insecurities for wage earners have dented, if not nullified the governments ability to exploit interest rate fears.

  14. David, it has been my experience that those who support the conservative side of politics are more inclined to name call. Eg St Kevin, Krudd etc. It’s a matter of degree. I’m not aying Howard detractors don’t do it but just check out the blogs.

  15. One way of determining how people will view an interest rate rise will be to kepp an eye on the betting markets after such a rise IMHO.

  16. I’m a little puzzled, not at people’s beliefs, but at their bias and logic.
    I read that people think Labor is best for Health and Education, but they seem to forget the mess these are in under State Labor governments, is Federal Labor a different Labor party?. Then the Federal Government is castigated for doing adverts, which wouldn’t be needed if Labor and Unions told the truth, but then ignore the incessent advertising by State Labor Governments, which on any night here in Queensland, there is always at least one, sometimes more every ad break on TV. So how can people criticise one side of politics for something, yet not the other?, it just shows bias and the point is lost. As far as I’m concerned they are all the same, no matter what high moral stance they take or words they use, self interest is the primary driver with Politicians. As an aside, I always vote for the people who will do me the least harm, at the moment it’s the Libs,
    but some time it will be the ALP, if they can get back to what Labor really means…

  17. I’ve noticed the DAILY TELEGRAPH in Sydney is giving Rudd more favourable coverage – could the reason for this be Kev’s meeting with the Editor a couple of weeks ago, and a dinner in the local pub with the journalists/editorial staff?
    Nostrodamus – is he one of Howard’s staffers in disguise?

  18. I think the betting markets are a poor indicator, especially this far out. The smart money won’t be out until a week before the election. If you can call betting smart that is.

  19. Much of what you say on the betting markets I agree with Rob but the markets do tend to reflect what is expected. They have got it wrong in the past but it is rare.

  20. Interest rates are at record lows, they are the lowest they have ever been in July 2007. When they get put up next month they will be at the lowest level they have ever been in August 2007. 😛

  21. I guess if the record starts from when Paul Keating was Treasurer, that’s valid.

    However, if it starts from when John Howard was treasurer, then they’re in trouble. 🙂

  22. Rumour: the charges against Haneef could be dropped as early as tomorrow. If so, Kevin Andrews has to resign, in my opinion.

  23. Thankyou Aristotle. I asked the same question yesterday or Tuesday. After reading your excellent piece I agree with your assessment.

  24. If interest rates go up, will that help or hinder Howard?

    You see, a lot of people seem to think the strong economy is what’s making people feel it’s safe to try and alternative government.

  25. seems that the Drag nacht Osten has begun
    Unfortunately across the blogs a Vapid liberal can be spotted by their lack of coherent argument and excessive use of Derogratory language

    Oh well give them enough rope and i am sure they will hang themselves

  26. I enjoyed Aristotle’s well-argued piece.

    There’s no doubt that water, health and education are huge issues for the voters. But in health and education, particularly, not a lot has been debated between the leaders lately. I’m sure that will change, as they trot out their policies closer to the election. We may well find these are the issues most under discussion before election day. There’s a long way to go in this campaign.

    While I think the economy remains a major issue, I suspect that national security won’t be as big this time. There was a feeling after September 11 that terrorists could strike at Australia, particularly after the Bali bombings. Security was a legitimate top issue then. But now the debate has come down to whether a visiting Indian doctor lent his Simcard to a relative in Britain. It’s small bikkies. The bigger issue is health – we’ve got all these migrant doctors because the Howard Government hasn’t funded enough medical places at universities. Despite the government’s best efforts, I don’t think people are going to be scared of foreign doctors. In regional and outer suburban areas, they’re grateful if they can get a doctor’s appointment within three weeks.

  27. Mr Squiggle wrote:
    “The last two quarters have been -0.1 and + 0.1 respectively. Inflation is falling spectacularly on every meaningful point of comparison. However, in this sad sad world, perception counts for more than facts, so I have to agree with you. After all , complusory voting in Australia doesn’t mean compulsory good judgement.”

    Well, some useful analysis would be useful as well.

    The two quarters preceding the June quarter were the unusual reads on inflation, not the one just provided. The underlying inflation rate, which is what the RBA is most worried about, is around the 0.9 p/c mark – underlying inflation is towards the top of the RBA’s target range. And the Reserve Bank thinks inflation is going to climb in the second half of the financial year.

    That’s why the Reserve Bank will have to move on interest rates in August. That’s why futures markets, where people try to make money rather than just throw it away, are pricing in an 83 p/c chance of a rate rise in August and 142 p/c by November. That is, a rate rise in August and a 42 p/c chance of another in November.

    Costello, and Howard, knows that the interest rate rise bus is about to take off again. It’s nothing about perception, it’s about what these figures show.

  28. statement I concede)

    In fact, the claim was “Keep interest rates at record lows”, which we know has since been proven false.

    Thanks Amber- I was going on a visual memory of Howard in election mode standing behind a pulpit and Im sure the slogan on the front of the pulpit said “Keep Interest Rates Low” which may well have been an abridged version of a more substantial claim/promise on interest rates.

    I agree that he certainly wanted to give the impression that interest rates would be kept record lows as you put it.

    My point remains though- It WILL hurt the Coalition because even JWH would find it hard to twist that around to a ‘don’t vote for Rudd or it will get worse’ and expect the electorate to swallow that; I dont think people are that easily misled re JWH any more.

  29. The Oz have in the past seemed willing to support Rudd but wont while he maintains his on WorkChoices, I think that message has been fairly clear.

    The Brisbane Courier Mail has been comparatively even handed for the most part as has The Advertiser [when it can be bothered with politics]. The Daily Telegraph has previoulsy been evil on Rudd but seems to have dropped that vendetta and, the Herald Sun used to basically spit poison on Rudd but seems to toned down the poison a little.

    I wonder if the negative attack on Rudd cost them sales? Or they have decided Howard’s control freak politics is as bad for the press [FOI, sueing 2 reporters etc] as the people. They would be right – another 3 years of Howard and forget FOI, freedom of the press and people.

    INTEREST rates matter in relation to the size of people’s debt and how they comparie internationally. People often stupidly say how they suffered under Paul Keating’s 17% rates but neglect to say rates were high globally at that time and, that it was for only a porion of his term and, that he [and Hawke] were the ones that basically fixed the economy for us. The neglect Howard’s 20.49% altogether with housing rates capped at 13.5% [otherwise they may have been 18%].

    WorkChoices is an issue for those on AWAs and for those expecting to go onto AWAs in the future – the loss of penalties and wages threatens their repayment ability. This would be a fear campaign with Real bite should they join WorkChoices with Housing affordability, family debt and interest rates.

    Everytime Howard mentions rates Rudd should mention WorkChoices.

  30. From another angle, is there any election mileage for the Coalition to

    (a) trot out a list of reform issues that have hit a wall due to stalled Federal-State Government negotiations (eg the Murray),

    (b) ‘blame’ the States for all that is wrong or stalled (Howard blaming the States for any forthcoming interest rates for example) and

    (c) find logical reasons to argue why things will be ‘worse’ under a wall to wall Labor governance ?

    Perhaps not- the ‘blame game’ has been used effectively for as long I can remember in Aussie politics without any ‘winner’ or ‘loser’ being declared. What do others think ?

  31. Your memory’s pretty good, Strop. I’m pretty sure there were banners saying, “keeping interest rates low”. And I’m just as sure the ALP will have pics of same, which they’ll trot out.

    I admire Edward’s persistent optimism, but can’t see how Howard’s going to get traction for a comeback.

  32. I had an inkling the other day reading some comment from Costello that the Coalition election strategists ‘might’ switch from attacking the Opposition leader on his economic non-credentials (L plate Latham etc) because Rudd is untouchable at the moment and focus their attention on attacking the economic credentials of Labor State Governments and try to connect that with what a National Labor economic future would be like- Hmm, dunno if that would work.

  33. They tried to blame rate increases on State debt and I guess if they follow this line the next logical progression is to blame the economy on the States!

  34. Nhullunbuy Says:

    July 26th, 2007 at 6:28 pm
    The Oz have in the past seemed willing to support Rudd but wont while he maintains his on WorkChoices, I think that message has been fairly clear

    Nhullunbuy you may be right in perceiving a softening of print media bias/attacks on Rudd across the Nation. Why is speculation. Yet, if you look for it in the Courier Mail editorial for example, there is stuff you can quote from the Liberal Party Handbook-

    Im yet to be convinced any print rag is going to back Rudd to the extent that they have the Coalition before this (apparent) transition occured.

  35. The cynical part of me (ok that is most of me) thinks they are trying to look a bit neutral before again turning to attack. Kinda like, we listened to the Country gave Rudd a chance but now he has failed us all because of [insert plays from the Liberal Play book of the day] and now deserves to stand condemned and is unfit for office.

    I think some opinion writers, who leave most of the bloggers looking well informed, and well edited, have already had a go or two at this.

  36. Any first year economics student sitting in class listening to dry lectures on ‘the equillibrium’ etc will tell you Australia’s economic direction is primarily driven by the ‘global economy’ these days-

    Typically, those in Government take the credit for any good news and put it down to sound national economic management and when there is bad news (ie interest rate hikes) they blame it on the two and fro’s of the mysterious ‘global economy’.

    Its a ‘politics is perception’ game both sides of the House have used to their advantage when it suits them.

    Howard’s error was to pin his primary election promise at the last election on an issue he and Costello (in real terms) do not and can not control IMHO.

  37. They havent reformed 100% but in comparison to The Oz and The HUN the BCM has been fairly mild. I usually read them all [Oz, SMH, Age, DT, BCM] every night before bed [except the HUN, why bother]. I only do a quick browse of The Advertiser and dont spend too much time on TheWest.

    I pay particular attention to the BCM [especially the front page] because that is where Labor needs to pick up a bunch of seats. The have run some good stories helpful for Rudd and some negative ones on WorkChoices. Generally I dont find it as bad as it could be and it is no where as bad as The Oz/Hun.

    The only people to read editorials are the ones that have their minds made up anyway.

  38. Arisotle, thanks for that piece. What I was indicating in my post of yesterday that Mr. Squiggle had a go at, is what others have commented on in relation to the Coalition trumpeting, what exceptional, superlative, superior, wonderful, all round genius economic managers they are vs. what actual real people are experiencing, which is pain. I suspect Mr. Squiggle spotted me for a bleeding heart type who works in an area of disadvantage, hence the patronising. However, what is also the case, is that my work also involves people with money, disposable income, who are doing O.K.. They express contempt for JWH et al.. Mind you, I think Victoria is much more hostile to them than the rest of the country.

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