Details at 11. Thanks as always to the Poll Bludger’s eastern states army of fast-typing Lateline watchers.
UPDATE: That’s Labor on 56, I should stress. In case you were wondering.
UPDATE 2: The Australian reports that Labor’s primary vote is down one point and the Coalition’s up one, to 47 per cent and 40 per cent. Rudd’s preferred leader rating has widened from 43-42 to 43-40. Respondents were asked how a Peter Costello leadership would affect their vote – 22 per cent said it would make them much less likely to vote Coalition and 7 per cent somewhat less likely, with only 8 per cent saying more likely.
UPDATE 3: Note the new headline. I’m sure this isn’t the first time Lateline’s scoop Newspoll figures differed slightly from what was then published.
Jasmine, I too have this well established cynical response to the revised – could you call it reporting? – of the likes of the GG, etc.. However, I still cling to the hope, bolstered by the remarkably consistent polls, that the neo con tactics of fear induction, blame shifting (latest being it’s all the States fault that they can’t manage reduced funding for providing housing – kerist!), and so on, that maybe, just maybe, the tabloids have toned it down, because they know they’re just going to look really stupid when/if the gov’t is voted out with an unceremonious boot up the collective posterior.
This whole Haneef business appears to be turning to into a complete farce (apart from for the man himself of course).
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/07/26/1989414.htm
Hi Coota Bulldog,
Forgotten I said that, think I must of had a few? Good to hear from someone ready to deal with the facts!!
The quarter & year Headline figures released June 06 were 1.6 and 4.0 respectively. Figures just released are 1.2 and 2.1 respectively. Basically headline inflation has dropped on both accounts over the last year
ON underlying inflation, the figure released 12 months ago was 0.6 and 2.4. Its now 0.7 and 2.6 respectively.
Is the RBA really going to move for a 0.1 or 0.2 increase over the last 12 months? I can’t see it myself….my bet is they sit still and make scary noises to frighten everybody
Also, I agree the futures market is where serious people play. They have to put thier money where their views are instead of just blogging. However, my understanding of Futures is that people use these markets to hedge their bets, not place thier real ones.
In the meaintime, until I get enough money to play with the big boys, my personal bet is no rate hike in August or September or October….
As Shanahan put it yesterday, its a win win for Labor at the moment, the interest rate issue- If they go up Howard looks stupid and if they don’t no fault no foul for Rudd.
People seem to have forgotten that Haneef is not a political football – he is a person. Apart from that, the Government appears to have stumbled and bungled along on this issue and the longer it drags on the worse it gets.
It is a disgraceful way to address the first serious tilt the Government has had at addressing potential terrorism on our home turf: I dont feel “comfortable and relaxed” nor “aware but not alarmed” – It is alarming how it has been handled regardless of the man’s innocence or guilt in my opinion.
Back on the election theme, when is the Coalition going to get on the front foot on something, anything ? Im in no hurry for that to happen given I am clearly going to vote Labor.
I just wonder what Howard’s election strategists can/will do to try and steal back control of the election agenda, hamstrung as they are by continuing poor poll results.
Latest Sportingbet is still moving steadily towards Labor $1.65/$2.25 AND 59.39% think Labor will win; a few days ago it was 57.58%
http://www.sportingbetdecider.com.au/
I hereby announce that I am the proud recipient of a letter fom Ross Vasta MP, Federal Member for Bonner, extolling the goverment’s determination to keep our economy strong. With said letter came a fridge magnet and an attached ‘My Shopping List’ notepad, a card explaining the solar panel rebates, complete with 4 pictures of solar panels, for anyone too dimwitted to recognise the same, and a pamphlet choc full with doubtlessly essential information about the recent budget, entitled Supporting Australian Families.
Highlighting both the goverment’s fiscal prudence, and the government’s support for families, the other enrolled voters at this address (my wife and youngest daughter) did not receive this material. There was only one letter, addressed to me, doubtlessly in dueful recognition of my rightful place as the Head of the household.
For those that think that betting markets provide a good guide of what will happen (I don’t), Portlandbet currently has Labor with a net gain of 13 seats: Bass, Bonner, Braddon, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Hasluck, Kingston, Lindsay, Macquarie, Makin, Moreton, Solomon, Stirling, Wakefield currently have Labor as favourites, but the Coalition is favourite in Swan.
Sportingbet has Labor with a net gain of 15 seats: Bass, Blair, Bonner, Braddon, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Hasluck, Kingston, Lindsay, Macquarie, Makin, Moreton, Solomon, Stirling and Wakefield to fall, with no Coalition gains.
Of course, you need to consider that most of these markets would be very small and the odds probably contain a considerable bias towards the incumbent in every seat.
Surely big bets will happen closer to the election, which could be enough to dramatically change the odds. So while the odds at this stage are interesting, I don’t think they reflect what will actually happen.
1. Pundits haven’t included Parramatta which is notionally Liberal but the party has written it off because they ignored the preselection.
2. Word on the street is that Howard’s campaign team in Bennelong is riddled with factionalism and he has employed a bloke named Jefferies in his office to run it – who is turning the old timers away from offering assistance.
3. PREDICTION – Cadman will run as an independent. Labor will preference and with his 30 percent plus their 20 percent, Cadman will win.
4. PREDICTION- Liberal Religious Right will confirm Towke on Monday night and Labor (or independent) will win Cook.
5. Don’t be surprised to see Jo Gash, Jim Lloyd and/or Bob Baldwin retire closer to election.
6. Libs may still win a seat or two in WA.
7. Bob Debus isn’t a certainty in Macquarie
8. If Manly Mayor Peter McDonald runs against Abbott, the Mad Monk will struggle.
9. Watch to see if Chris Pyne hasn’t any troubles.
10. Bill Heffernan still has one more headline to claim.
Nick
“Bill Heffernan still has one more headline to claim.”
a new breed of Bull for the heiferman?
I wonder that if the Polls worsen for the Govt [say back out to 58/42] if some might be tempted to retire?
Nick Says:
July 26th, 2007 at 10:14 pm
9. Watch to see if Chris Pyne hasn’t any troubles.
Do you have something about Pyne Nick ? It would have to be something significant to shift him from the blue vein seat of Sturt where he has been ordained (in a safe Liberal seat) as a future Liberal Party leader.
He and Downer are of the same ilk- born to rule types snogging on wines from the Barossa and Hahndorf blue vein cheese selections at the Mens Club on North Terrace before wandering up Magill Road or The Parade to a bridge club fund raising jaunt.
If Pyne loses Sturt I will move back home to Magill and spend my days blowing rasberries around Magill High School, say once every 3 years. Unfortunately, I think I will be stuck here in Brisvegas awhile longer.
I don’t know what Nick’s sources are but a lot of that seems quite likely. If the NSW Libs endorse Towke it will show they have given up on the election and are more interested in their internal civil war. Could Baird run as an independent?
Speaking of retirements, if the DPP drops the charges against Haneef (as appears quite likely) that should be just about curtains for Kevin Andrews.
I am also advised that the Qld DPP is more likely to charge Laming than Hardgrave. This is good for Labor because Hardgrave is probably a goner anyway, whereas Laming’s demise would give Labor a crack at a seat that might otherwise be out of reach.
I’d love it if the Duchess of Sturt lost, but I think he will only go if it is a landslide.
Fargo61 Says:
July 26th, 2007 at 8:36 pm
I hereby announce that I am the proud recipient of a letter fom Ross Vasta MP, Federal Member for Bonner.
How is Mr Vasta Fargo ? I was wandering down Sandgate Road at Nundah during my lunch break, maybe a week ago, and discovered the Liberal candidate for Swanny’s seat is ‘open for business’ (during the lunch break only at this stage).
No sign of said candidate of course, just a couple of loyal blue veins trotting out ‘sound economy’ and ‘evil unions’ rhetoric between clenched (false) teeth to the one ‘visitor’ game enough to wander through the ex chemist double doors and stumble over (unlaid, piled) carpet offcuts.
They have put no money into this candidates tilt: I felt abit embarressed for him actually. It is a no hope seat for the Coalition, but the imagery I got there was of defeatism and a lack of Coalition supporters willing to dip the hand into the pocket and cough up election funding-
There has already been a few Coalition candidates up here in QLD sending out letters to local businesses etc specifically asking for election funding support- I think the locals up here in QLD have very little confidence in getting a bang for their buck this time around. Not a good street level message for the Coalition in QLD at this stage.
So Howard is blaming Labor for any interest rates rise. The blame game in full swing.
Yes Gary and we can expect more of that ‘blame the State’s’ and ‘look at the terrible State Government’s economic record’ rhetoric over the coming weeks before the correction (election).
9. Watch to see if Chris Pyne hasn’t any troubles.
You tease, you. Pyne getting the boot would be so sweet. I can think of few who would deserve it more.
It would be worth it for Labor to commission one of those ‘Outliers’ Howard got when needed…except make this one show 60/40. ;]
Then sit back and see what happens for a week inside the Liberal party.
blame the states for being in surplus ??
interesting.
oh and more jackboot centralism
LOL
“The polls show Labor’s support on a two-party-preferred basis remains extremely strong at 57 per cent to 43 in Kingston and 58 to 42 in Wakefield. In Wakefield, 16 per cent of people who voted Liberal in 2004 now support Labor. In Kingston the figure is 18 per cent.
“The magnitude of Labor’s lead raises the prospect of a major upset in SA putting in doubt the previously safe Liberal seats of Sturt and Boothby. Both would fall with a swing to Labor of 7 per cent. ”
“On these figures, even Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer’s safe seat of Mayo, held by more than 13 per cent, would be determined on preferences. ”
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22141154-910,00.html
I note Howard is threatening the states with his considerable Federal financial power on many fronts.
I have not thought this through, and practically it is probably inconceivable, but could not the States withdraw the power they ceded to the Commonwealth to collect income tax?
I could be wrong, but my recollection is that the power to collect this tax originally lay with the States but was handed over to the Commonwealth in the 1920’s or thereabouts.
If this is so, could not the ceded power be withdrawn by the Labor states collectively?
Are there any Constitutional lawyers on this blog who can comment on this hypothetical?
Wouldn’t that shut the tyrant up!
http://members.iinet.net.au/~jenks/CV24.html
hth
This is largely the result of the fact that sections 52 (ii) and 99 of the Australian Constitution would require that the States would need to act in unity if they were ever to reclaim their taxing powers.
Wow. How many Labor Government’s do we have now ? (Just teasin).
Further tongue in cheek comments-
If that reading of the legal status of the States powers (thanks Amber) regarding collection and control of income tax Labor could have created a few headaches for the Coalition after the ACT became the final State/Territory Government to come under Labor control.
NSW (since 1995), TAS and QLD (since 1998), VIC (since 1999), WA ACT and NT (since 2001) have had Labor State/Territory Government’s.
The final State/Territory of SA (2002) gave Labor all the ‘tricks’ it needed. Why haven’t they done something with this unprecedented position ? Could the State Government’s done a Fraser (in his case via the Senate) and forced a DD on Howard by collective agreement to reclaim income tax collection power then tell the Federal Govt to ‘go whistle dixie’ ? (Tongue in cheek).
has had a Labor State Government for 8 years
SA
Seriously now, the Coalition has had 5 years (more in the bigger States) of being out in the cold at a State/Territory level and none of them appear to be likely to be under serious threat of doing any better at their next respective State/Territory Election.
I would have thought the Coalition would have sorted out why they are out in the cold at a State/Territory level and , at the very least, fixed up the internal factional, childish infighting evident in the Cook preselection debacle in NSW and the ongoing leaks about leaks about Flegg in QLD, for example.
What Howard so often dismissed as “a matter for my colleagues in ….” is going to come back and bite him on the bum at a Federal level- and so it should IMHO.
yes I corrected my statement that ACT was the last to come under Labor power to SA. Tired eyes.
Well, well, well, whadayaknow.
First I posted this
STROP Says:
July 27th, 2007 at 12:23 am
Yes Gary and we can expect more of that ‘blame the State’s’ and ‘look at the terrible State Government’s economic record’ rhetoric over the coming weeks before the correction (election)
Whadayaknow, the front page of the Courier Mail I collected from my local has “Premiers vow to dig in on Uranium” and “Howards Housing Takeover” (Brough wants to take funding for public housing away from the State Government’s and hand it over to the private and community sector).
This gives weight to my earlier speculation about a Coalition tactical shift on economic credentials attacks on the Federal Labor leader (aka Latham in 2004) to State Govt leaders – starting it would seem with housing.
Towit-
STROP Says:
July 26th, 2007 at 6:32 pm
From another angle, is there any election mileage for the Coalition to
(a) trot out a list of reform issues that have hit a wall due to stalled Federal-State Government negotiations (eg the Murray),
(b) ‘blame’ the States for all that is wrong or stalled (Howard blaming the States for any forthcoming interest rates for example) and
(c) find logical reasons to argue why things will be ‘worse’ under a wall to wall Labor governance ?
Maybe my speculation was not too far off the mark.
Strop
Howards constant blame game, doomsday warnings and erratic policy behaviour could work against him.
He is displaying the mental stability of a Latham coupled with the athletic grace of a Beasly, not a good look.
Makes him look increasingly desperate to do and say anything to hold onto power.
It’d take only a 6 – 7% swing to the ALP(2PP) for Pyne to lose Sturt, so not impossible if there is a landslide to Rudd.
My fantasy election night would involve Howard, Costello, Turnball and Pyne all losing, Rudd with a majority of 50 – of course, more likely either Rudd or Howard will win a narrow victory.
A sleeper seat: Page. Causley is retiring, it’s a marginal National Party seat on the N.S.W North Coast – who’s the Labor candidate?
If anyone is sure to lose their seat, it has to be Ross Vasta LOL
I didn’t say Pyne’s “troubles” would be electoral.
Towkes future is now line-ball. The Right is split with Ficarra/Feveranti-Wells v Clarke/Campbell. Methinks the weekend’s press will sink the “gentleman of middle eastern appearance” and a new candidate will emerge.
Very good news for Labor in South Australia with those figures in Kingston and Wakefield. Based on those figures it would seem likely that barring a minor miracle Boothby is gone for the libs, and Sturt would probably be line-ball. However, Makin is the seat I’d like to see figures for as I think it will be closer than the other marginals.
The signs from the USA are ominous and they are now impacting on the Australian market. The CDOs are indeed affecting market sentiment.
I believe we are seeing the turn from a bull market to a bear market. It has now peaked and will decline in significant drops accompanied by small rallies as short sellers cover their positions.
This will affect us all, including the Australian dollar.
There will be a retreat from mining shares as commodity prices drop.
This will have a bearing (pub intended) on voters’ sentiment.
The increase in interest rates in NZ will also mean a rate increase here otherwise the markets will be too far out of balance.
Expect to see two interest rate increases in the next six months.
John Howard will not be able to use interest rates in his favour and of course Labor will be able to hammer the message home.
Now I know why so many canny investors have cashed up and are sitting on it waiting for the downturn. They are waiting to buy in when the market hits rock bottom.
It’s going to be a rocky ride downhill. Good time to pay off debts and get out of highly geared investments.
It’s much less likely that John Howard can win now. The RBA has to act even though they know it will have political implications.
The boom may well be over and if Kevin Rudd does get elected he will have to manage a post-boom economy. It will be quite a challenge.
In answer to Fulvio’s question re State taxing powers, the Constitution was meant to secure the States’ financial position and independence. At federation in 1901, it was the States and not the Commonwealth that levied income tax. However, the demands of two world wars and changes to the economy, as well as some canny manoeuvring by the Commonwealth, have left the States with no revenue from income taxation.
The High Court decisions in the Uniform Tax Cases of 1942 and 1957 upheld a Commonwealth takeover of the income tax system. Not only that, the decisions also gave a wide interpretation to the ability of the Commonwealth to attach conditions to money granted to the States. Section 96 of the Constitution allows the Commonwealth to make grants on “such terms and conditions†as it thinks fit.
The States today could levy income tax, but it would be in addition to federal tax and so it would mean taxing people twice. The Commonwealth could even insist that its share is collected first. As a result, the States have turned to new sources of taxation, such as on gambling. Hence the rise of casinos …
Some have speculated here that rates won’t rise because the govt will influence the reserve bank. I disagree. That Howard is already blaming the states for any interest rises indicates to me that he expects a rate rise, and is getting started early with the narrative for that.
Anyway, I thought the reason that interest rate management was given to the reserve bank was to insulate the govt (lib or alp) from the anger and pain it causes. Howard has jammed himself by implying that he has some influence over rates. Serves him right.
Fulvio, The referal of the State’s income taxing powers to the Commonwealth was provided to fund WW2. After the war the State’s went to the High Court to try and get it back but lost; once a power is referred, the States only get it back if the Commonwealth chooses to give it back.
Bracks to resign, rumours.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/bracks-to-resign-report/2007/07/27/1185339209648.html
If there are political considerations, then the RBA should consider that Labor will be furious if it wins power without a rate rise, which is probable, only to have rates jacked up sharply in the new year. A rate rise will probably put the govt down for the count, so the current govt would not be a problem for the RBA for much longer.
Bracks has just confirmed his resignation.
Is Steve going to Canberra?
sheedy for premier! (as one of my co-workers says)
OMFG: I didn’t see that one coming!
So it’s Brumby vs Thwaites to succeed Bracks?
The State Labor govts are still popular, judging from recent election and poll results, except perhaps for NSW. Attacking popular govts sounds very risky to me, and could be a sign of real desperation and panic.
Rumour apparently racing through the corridors at Spring St is that Thwaites is about to announce his own resignation.
I’m a little sad at the resignation of the man who had one of the greatest political upset victories in 1999, and then the greatest Vic Labor landslide in 2002. However, as in cricket, pollies have a use-by date, so Bracksy’s retirement is similar to Warne’s and McGrath’s. All three retire on a high, with their team in the complete ascendancy. Brumby or Thwaites will now have time before the next State election in 2010; this is in contrast to the Federal Libs, with Howard staying past his use-by date IMO.
Good riddance to Bracks. His cynical opposition to Mr Howard’s Murray-Darling plan – at Rudd’s behest, of course – was singularly revolting. The creep will not be missed.