Details at 11. Thanks as always to the Poll Bludger’s eastern states army of fast-typing Lateline watchers.
UPDATE: That’s Labor on 56, I should stress. In case you were wondering.
UPDATE 2: The Australian reports that Labor’s primary vote is down one point and the Coalition’s up one, to 47 per cent and 40 per cent. Rudd’s preferred leader rating has widened from 43-42 to 43-40. Respondents were asked how a Peter Costello leadership would affect their vote – 22 per cent said it would make them much less likely to vote Coalition and 7 per cent somewhat less likely, with only 8 per cent saying more likely.
UPDATE 3: Note the new headline. I’m sure this isn’t the first time Lateline’s scoop Newspoll figures differed slightly from what was then published.
In practice, though not quite in principle. If writs are issued before next Monday then a minimum campaign period could have an election on Saturday 1st September, the weekend before APEC. But of course that isn’t going to happen.
jasmine – I like you analysis too, do you have a blog??
Adam, I know it’s a progressive (and therefore “in the ideological bubble”) publication, but do yourself a favour and get yourself a copy of The Monthly from the month that Gunns was the cover story…
I like the theory that the election will be called as soon as practicable after APEC, that is, a week or so afterwards when the last attendee has gone home.
I also like the theory that Howard will give himself as much time as possible before calling the election (before bumping into constraints like school holidays and allegations of “holding on”).
I like the second theory most.
You know, in a funny way I think the tripping episode could help Howard. It’s very human. A big part of his problem is that he, and Andrews/Ruddock/etc have started to look very cold, calculating, etc (all the ‘manipulative’ stuff in the media). Falling over in front of TV cameras is quite a relatable, funny little incident.
I may be wrong. But if I were Labor I wouldn’t touch this incident with a bargepole in terms of the age issue.
Why is anyone even surprised by Labor’s forestry policy ? It wouldn’t matter who was the ALP leader right now, it was inevitable even 2 years ago that this would be the decision made. Anyone could see that after what happened in 2004. Quite simply its plain old common sense. Anything else would have been stupid with a capital S.
Old Kev’s human but who is Jodie Kingston
In his quest to be just like Howard Rudd has forgotten the name of his candidate for Launceston Sources have heard him planning a “trip” for next week LOL
The Tassie seats are Bass, Braddon, Denison, Lyons and Franklin. No Launceston seat.
no blog for me but I’ve spent sometime in yours 🙂
A voteline poll in the Hun had 50.5% saying Haneef should be allowed back to India. I know that this poll is phone-in, but it is generally very biased to Tory. This indicates that Haneef is gaining traction. As I said before, the longer this drags on, the worse it becomes for the govt. Although people will forget this before the election, the govt can not afford this distraction at a time when they need to start getting traction fast.
Lord D is right, in that there is no electorate that is just Launceston, but the main centre of population in Bass is Launceston. Most members of the electorate live in Launceston. Bass covers a big area (northeast Tasmania and Flinders Island) but apart from Launceston it’s mostly small country towns.
This is counter-intuative – make of it what you will.
Large Billboards for Mark Vaile (“Trusted locally – respected nationally”) have gone up on the highways in Lyne this week. In 2004, they went up the week before the election was called. Maybe this was just because of the time that the billboards were available but it makes me think that the election is close.
So how many marginals are there in Tasmania? What does Rudd gain by caving in to the loggers?
I doubt that people feel the same about Tampa. We were all virgins then. We have now had Bali, Iraq, Hicks and so on. We were spooked by the unknown, thinking that terrorists could be anywhere and everywhere. We have such things in perspective now and we get see continual images and reports from Iraq.
The papers are now basically presenting Howard’s Tampa incident as con job on the public. It may or may not win some votes but it does go to adding to the tricky, mean, dishonest and nasty image of Howard that is erupting from his biography [and helped by Costello].
Add that to the WorkChoices laws [and the way they were dumped – and when we get closer to the election the thought other secret Howard laws] people may just feel a little unsure about putting him back in.
I do not believe that it has hurt Rudd and really the cummulative effect should have been a positive. It is impossible to say how Haneef has affected the general public and if they were paying much attention. But if they eventually link the Hicks experience with Haneef’s lot the impact would eventually be negative for Howard.
The image of Howard has been so overwhelmining negative this past week – especially in all Sundays papers that surely he must seem like a tired old man, past his time and a bit of tricky past.
It would be the perfect time for Rudd to come out looking strong and positive for the public to make the comparison.
That Guy – 2 seats is the answer to both of those questions.
I’m sure I’m not the only one who switched for election night in 2004 only to see that Labor had already lost two seats (due to Tas being an hour ahead because of an early start to Daylight Saving). THis basically killed off the night as far as tely watching goes – once you take the suspense out of the count, you may as well stop watching (esp if your side is losing). What Rudd did in Tassie this week should ensure that electoion night viewing will be more gripping than last time – indeed the way things are at present, it could well come down to events in WA, a la The West Wing.
Sorry Lord C my problem’s not with peoples names but with place names Of course Bass
2 marginals, Bass and Braddon.
He hopes to win back support from the timber unions and so win back support in Bass and especially Braddon
Matthew Sykes asks “Why is anyone even surprised by Labor’s forestry policy ?”
I don’t think anyone is surprised Matthew. It was appalling publicity for the ALP during the 2004 campaign to see forestry workers cheering John Howard. There is no way they want a repeat of *that*. Also, the ALP know that they have the conservation vote, regardless of what they do. So what if a few first preferences drift to the Greens? They’ll come straight back to the ALP. They want to make sure they get the timber worker’s votes as well.
However, my feeling is that forestry wasn’t the reason Labor lost Bass and Braddon. I think (in my very unscientific polling of friends and family) that Mark Latham had more to do with it than is perhaps acknowledged. I think that they could have retained the policy in some form and still win Bass and Braddon easily.
But I could be entirely wrong.
If it comes down to WA, Rudd had better hope he doesn’t win, a hostile senate and a ridiculously thin, almost unworkable HoReps would be quite unattractive for Labor wouldn’t it?
Richard Jones
For twenty years Greens voters have overwhelmingly (not unanimously, but overwhelmingly) judged Labor to be the superior choice for their second preferences. My point is not that they are necessarily right in some objective sense, but that I would give long odds that this pattern is not going to be reversed. I suppose we will find out at the election.
If a Labor Government is elected, I expect it will do things that disappoint a lot of Greens voters. Why should they be any different? Ever since Labor Governments first started getting elected, they have done things that disappointed a lot of Labor voters.
Adam
I expect what influences a lot of people to suppose that Rudd doesn’t genuinely believe in the merits of his forestry policy is that they themselves don’t believe in its merits. I agree that this is bad logic. (For myself, I don’t have an opinion on the merits of the policy, and I also don’t have an opinion on Rudd’s private beliefs. I would bet that Lennon genuinely believes in the policy.)
Given WorkChoices, is the support of the Tasmanian CFMEU still even in question?
I cannot believe Steve Bracks he has to go down as the worst premier of the state of victoria i mean here is Howard with a plan to help the Murray and what does Bracks do he goes political over the issue to block it so Howard looks bad i mean for god’s sake. Steve Bracks you are a real Shumck!
Even if the Liberals lose Bass and Braddon they will pick up Swan and Cowan in WA so the net loss would be zero.
The fact of the matter is if Labor lose any of its marginals the is game over unless its a landslide. Rudd would do better to lose in 2007 by a thin margin and then win in 2010 with a wide margin.
Only one person has picked up on the fact that the one percent shift is to the Nationals not the Liberals. Given that the overwhelming majority of marginal Coalition seats are Liberal seats, this would seem to indicate that the shift (if it’s real and not explained simply by the margin of error) is of little or no electoral significance. It might just mean that a bunch of rural voters (who would mostly be in safe Coalition seats) have shifted back to the Nationals because they’re worried about having “terrist foreign doctors” foisted on them.
Attitudes to the Greens party from non-Green supporters are a form of psychological ‘projection’ I suspect – people say they are pretentious and ‘purer than pure’ because they want to think that, to rationalise their own need to accept the mess comes from other parties.
I find it funny that ALP supporters not only accept compromise but accept the cover ups, spin and so on which go with governments of both sides now.
One teensy little thing missing from your theory, Glen — erm, the plan. I haven’t seen one anywhere, have you? Last I heard there was a collection of 22 sheets of paper. I wouldn’t spend $10b on the strength of that, would you? Or would you?
Apparently the state/fed talks to renegotiate the Medicard agreement have broken down with Abbott saying the agreement should be negotiated by the “next federal government”. Is this more evidence that the election is close?
This is something Latham never realised. Unfortunately Labor can treat the Green voters like cr*p and their votes will keep coming back, as they have no-where else to go. That isn’t an indictment on Green voters – they do everything they can under the system to get environmentalists elected – (you can only put Greens first once per vote) but rather an indictment on Labor (and the Liberals) for having no commitment to sustainable living, and the system that means your prefs will eventually go somewhere.
However, it *is* farcical for Greens voters to say that Rudd better beware … it’s an empty threat that Greens will preference Libs ahead of Lab at this election and everyone knows it.
Everyone opposed to Howard is tacking as hard as possible against the Liberals this election.
At least Bracks stood up for Victorians and put their vested interests above all else. Wave a wad of cash under Rann’s, Iemma’s or Beattie’s nose and they didn’t even blink before they took it.
Also, on the topic of the poll. It seems to me that the gap is narrowing (almost imperceptably, but it is). It will be a very close election.
It is almost August, given the election will be either in Late October or November, that leaves about 3-4 months until election day. The Coalition in all the opinion polls is scoring 40%, which would around 47% of the two party vote.
The Coalition would still be beaten, however it is getting closer.
I hope the CFMEU gets what’s coming to them (for 04) if and when Labor wins. They should hang their heads in shame, directly contributing to control of the Senate for the most anti-union government in history.
dembo – does it occur to you that Latham realised it, but also realised that it is immoral to abuse the fact that people who vote Green have no choice but to preference either Labor or the Libs? Because it is. Bring on optional preferences, I say. The current choice for genuine progressives is Labor or donkey.
Saw Richardson on Saturday and he is looking worried and strained
We seem to be assuming that the fate of some trees in Tasmania is the only environmental issue on the agenda, which is very far from the case. Have we forgotten that the earth is about to catch fire? On climate change there is a yawning gulf between the parties – the Libs don’t even accept that the issue exists. That will keep greeny voters focussed and ensure that nearly all of them vote Labor either directly or indirectly.
I don’t buy this idea that non-Greens are somehow sellouts and that bagging the Greens allows us to feel better about what a bunch of cynics are own parties are. Politics is an ugly game, and if the Greens ever want to be more than a 10% party, they will need to learn the skill of the artful sellout. Politics is the art of compromise, after all. It’s unclear if they did, however, whether the true believers would stay with them.
That said, I actually quite like the Greens. I think they serve as a useful collective conscience, and they are a positive presence in the body politic in that regard. Just don’t let them anywhere near the levers of power.
” Many green voters will see there is no difference at all between a Howard Government and Rudd Government and may well decide to give their preferences to Howard to stop 12 years of a Mini Me Government”
Eerrr. even at the last election with Latham on the nose the Green vote followed familiar patterns across most seats- 73-78 ish percent preferences to LABOR- I dont know what Green voters you are talking about.
I cant think of a Green voter Ive met who would vote for JWH under any circumstances- Obviously some have, but history says they are pretty reliably Labor Preference nominators on the whole.
So who cares what they think about Rudd or Howard’s foresty policy/ The Greens are not just a one policy mob like One Nation’s trifecta (racist;sexist;Homophobic) and they have a mix of political pespectives and bents within the Green membership-
Wake up and smell the pulp sitting on the docks at Burnie and Ill show you the smell of 2 Tasmanian seats and, forgive me for thinking so, a policy Rudd may actually personally believe is a good policy to adopt. Miracles do happen in politics, even in election years.
Hugo, the Greens are going the way of the NDP – Lee Rhiannon’s Marxist background is a good example.
# Peter Stephens Says:
July 24th, 2007 at 6:20 pm
Hugo, the Greens are going the way of the NDP – Lee Rhiannon’s Marxist background is a good example.
Gee here we go again Green bagging. Thats what so interesting about Aussie politics atm Bash a Green and its fun bash FF and its fire and brimstone. Shows how far right everything has gone
I wasnt bagging your Green mob Bill_ I was just stating historical facts about the very strong habits of Green preferences on the whole. Don’t worry, the Green primary vote wont suffer too much damage, if any, this time around Bill. ItS ALL good in the world of the Green in 2007.
It will be interesting when the Unions realize that the YR@W is outlawed, when people see that destruction of the forests is irreversible, when social inequality has not changed, when full rights for gay people have not happened. when climate change has not been headed off, etc etc, which way people will start to lean. The pendulum will swing back to the left and i have no doubt most on here will move that way as they would like to see the above topics dealt with.
STROP I didn’t mean you i was talking to Peter
Who were those Democrats anyway. Ive already forgotten most of their names after enjoying the ‘charms’ on NS-D brightening up the Senate for awhile, that I will miss.
PS; Bill whats this about Cornes and the “dress” fiasco someone alluded to up there ^^ in relation to Boothby ?
Community groups are so disenchanted with the major parties that in the next few elections we will hear their voice and see their votes move. Community participation is the future and the Major parties seem to be ignoring that fact
PS; Bill whats this about Cornes and the “dress†fiasco someone alluded to up there ^^ in relation to Boothby ?
The only thing i saw was Cornes in what i think was a ‘sexy dress’ but i did not get the chance to read about it.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/growths-removed-from-bush-during-colon-test/2007/07/24/1185043066066.html
Slovakia: 110 peak (deployed 8/03 – withdrawn 2/07)
Italy: 3,200 peak (deployed 7/03 – withdrawn 11/06)
Ukraine: 1,650 troops (deployed 8/03 – withdrawn 12/05)
Netherlands: 1,345 troops (deployed 7/03 – withdrawn 3/05)
Spain : 1,300 troops (deployed 4/03 – withdrawn 4/04)
Japan: 600 troops (deployed 1/04 – withdrawn 7/06)
Thailand: 423 troops (deployed 8/03 – withdrawn 8/04)
Honduras: 368 troops (deployed 08/03 – withdrawn 5/04)
Dominican Republic: 302 troops (withdrawn 5/04)
Hungary: 300 troops (deployed 08/03 – withdrawn 3/05)
Nicaragua: 230 troops (deployed 09/03 – withdrawn 2/04)
Singapore: 192 troops (deployed 12/03 – withdrawn 3/05)
Norway: 150 troops (withdrawn 8/06)
Portugal: 128 troops (deployed 11/03 – withdrawn 2/05)
New Zealand: 61 troops (deployed 9/03 – withdrawn 9/04)
Philippines: 51 troops (deployed 7/03 – withdrawn 7/04)
Tonga: 45 troops (deployed 7/04 – withdrawn 12/04)
Iceland: 2 troops (deployed 5/03 – withdrawn date unknown)
Seems like more then 5 to me 🙂
If you go into Andrew Landeryou’s blog – andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com and trawl back a few days you can see a photo of the dress – he refers to her as the ALP candidate for the seat of Booby – once you see the photo you’ll see why.
If you like, it’s sort of like Sonia McMahons famous dress – but upside down!
Enough of the frivolous .. and I was not referring to Nicole Cornes .. if for example there was the large swing on 8 -9%, and really only in NSW and Qld, the end of the National Party would have to be nigh, as they would be left with a single digit number of seats. That should be enough to raise everybody’s spirits!!
Re Sonia McMahon
When attending a Washington function with Nugget Coombs and Billy McMahon a local wit (back in the days when they had those in Washington) is reported to have said “it looks like Snow White is down to her last two dwarfs”
Hi Bill – no offence meant. And I agree with you that grass roots stuff is important and closer to many people’s lives. However, I think my point (and I think I’ve bantered with you about this before) is that the major parties are not going away in a hurry, and if we want to make any concrete achievements through politics, we have to deal with that.
As for Family First, to my mind, they are not really big enough to get worried about. Their election in 2004 was a bit of a fluke – I think they got less than 2% of the vote. Their best bet for the future is to act as a sort of Greens for the Liberal Party, in that they might be able to syphon off enough Senate votes to take one or two of the Libs’ spots. I would prefer this to the Coalition having control. (By this I mean that most Senate elections split 3 Right and 3 Left for every State, and one each in each Territory. The Greens “take” two or three Labor seats, while the Dems did the same to the Libs. With the demise of the Dems, Lib voters have nowhere else to go.)
So the rise of FF is entirely a bad thing, despite my concerns about mixing religion with politics. And Fielding’s voting record has been pretty moderate – he voted against WorkChoices for example. Of course, I myself would never vote for them, but I’d be happy to see a splintering of the Right Wing vote.
Can someone tell me their predictions for the Senate? Will the Coalition lose their 1 seat majority and will the minor parties control the balance of power? I’m hoping the Greens will add at least a few more seats. I guess they’re likely to gain 2 or 3 more since I can’t really see the Democrats lasting much longer.
Allow me to plug the fact that I am Nugget Coombs’s great-nephew. I’m slightly taller than “Uncle Bertie”, as I didn’t call him (because I never met him).
im intrested in how dennis from the gg and as well chris mitchell;editor of the gg defends their positions now.
2 weeks ago the prefeered pm position was the be all & end all and the libs where on the march to victory.
lateset newspoll howard has droped 2 points in ppm stats and not 1 word from the gg about it.
bias? not from the heart of the nation ?