William Bowe – The Poll Bludger

Friday miscellany: Morgan poll and sundry preselections (open thread)

Labor fills a Victorian Senate vacancy, while the Liberals choose an ACT Senate candidate and confirm Nicolle Flint’s comeback bid in Boothby.

There’s quite a bit going on in Bludgerdom at the moment, so before we proceed, some plugs for the posts below this one:

• First and foremost, the site’s thirty-seventh bi-monthly donation drive is in progress, so if you’ve ever felt this corner of cyberspace was deserving of support, there is no time like the present.

• There is a guest post from Adrian Beaumont covering today’s British local elections and various other items of news from what passes for the democratic world these days.

• I have a post up on tomorrow’s Tasmanian periodic Legislative Council elections (or to be precise, two period elections and one by-election), which aren’t always interesting but are this year, as the post seeks to explain.

• Still another new post looks at a New South Wales state poll that as far as I can tell has gone unreported by the paper that commissioned it.

On with the show:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up one), Coalition 36.5% (up one), Greens 14% (down two) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1719.

• As intimated by earlier reports, Labor has chosen Lisa Darmanin, public sector branch secretary of the Australian Services Union, to fill the Victorian Senate vacancy created by the death in February of Linda White, who shared Darmanian’s background in the union.

• The Canberra Times reports a Liberal preselection to choose its Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate was won by Jacob Vadakkedathu, director of a management consultancy. Vadakkedathu prevailed in the final round over Kasey Lam-Evans by 163 votes to 121, after former ministerial adviser Jerry Nockles and former territory parliamentarian Giulia Jones dropped out in earlier rounds.

• The Liberals have confirmed former Liberal member Nicolle Flint’s comeback bid in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, which she held from 2016 until she stood aside at the 2022 election, at which it was won for Labor by Louise Miller-Frost. Also confirmed as Liberal candidates are Amy Grantham in Adelaide, who also ran in 2022, and Tea Tree Gully councillor Irena Zagladov in Makin.

• In her weekly column for Nine Newspapers, Niki Savva reports a uComms poll conducted for Climate 200 in mid-March credited independent Nicolette Boele with a 53-47 lead over Liberal member Paul Fletcher in the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield. Boele came within 4.2% of winning the seat in 2022. However, the situation in this seat is likely to be substantially complicated by a looming redistribution that will cost New South Wales a seat, which will very likely result in the abolition if not of Bradfield then of one of its near neighbours.

Tasmanian upper house elections: Hobart, Prosser, Elwick

A minor sequel for Tasmania’s recent state election tomorrow, as former Greens and Labor leaders seek berths in the upper house.

Voters in three of Tasmania’s Legislative Council divisions go to the polls tomorrow as part of the chamber’s annual periodic elections, whereby either two or three seats go up for election each year on a six-year cycle. This comes six weeks on from a state election that only reached its final resolution when two independents undertook to support a Liberal minority government last week. One of the three is technically a by-election, the seat having been vacated by the Labor member’s successful bid to move to the lower house. The chamber presently has four Liberal and four Labor members plus seven independents, with one of each up for election tomorrow. The site will as always cover the count live tomorrow from the close of polls at 6pm.

• Of particular note is the election for Hobart, which naturally covers the central business district and its immediate surrounds. This will be contested for the Greens by Cassy O’Connor, who held a seat in Clark (known until 2018 as Denison) from 2008 and led the party from 2015 until she stood aside in September last year. The seat will be vacated with the retirement of Rob Valentine, who has held it as an independent since 2012. Also in the field are child safety officer John Kamara for Labor plus five independents: Charlie Burton, Sam Campbell, Michael Haynes, John Kelly and Stefan Vogel.

• The by-election is for the seat of Elwick, covering a band of Hobart’s Labor-voting northern suburbs from Moonah north to Rosetta, which will not be contested by the Liberals. Josh Willie held the seat for Labor after unseating independent Adriana Taylor in 2016 and was re-elected in 2022. He was one of the two Labor candidates elected to Clark at the March 23 election, and was briefly considered a possibility for the party leadership. The new Labor candidate is Tess McLaughlin, an electrician from Lutana. The most formidable of the other three candidates is presumably Glenorchy mayor Bec Thomas, running as an independent. Also in the field are Janet Shelley of the Greens and independent Fabiano Cangelosi, a lawyer who ran for Labor in Franklin at the 2021 state election.

• Also being vacated by a successful lower house election candidate is Prosser, located immediately beyond Hobart’s northern reaches and encompassing Sorell, Port Arthur and Swansea. The seat had been held for the Liberals since its previous periodic election in 2018 by Jane Howlett, who was one of three Liberals elected in Lyons at the March 23 election. The election in 2018 produced a close race between Liberal and Labor, and the seat will be contested for Labor this time by Bryan Green, who held a seat in Braddon from 1998 to 2017 and led the party for the first three years after it lost office in 2014. The new Liberal candidate is Kerry Vincent, who has been the mayor of Sorell for twelve years and owns the agricultural merchandise business Rural Solutions. Rounding out the field are Phillip Bigg of Shooters Fishers and Farmers and independents Pam Sharpe and Kelly Spaulding.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 33, Coalition 36, Greens 12 in NSW

The second New South Wales state poll for the year suggests Labor is still in front, but has gone backwards from the result that failed to win it a majority last March.

The bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll has not been reported in the Sydney Morning Herald, but the results appear on the Political Monitor poll display feature of the paper’s website. It finds both major parties down since the previous poll, in which the Coalition opened up a primary vote for the first time since the March 2023 election, with Labor down a point to 33% and the Coalition down two to 36%. The Greens are steady on 12%, with the generic independent category up two to 14% and others steady on 5%. This suggests a two-party preferred lead to Labor of around 52-48, compared with an election result of 54.3-45.7. Chris Minns is credited with a 37-16 lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier, out from 35-16 last time. The result was derived from the national Resolve Strategic polls conducted March 21 to 24 and April 17 to 21, from a sample of 1000.

In other New South Wales state politics news, a by-election looms for a date yet to be determined in the rural seat of Northern Tablelands following the resignation of Nationals MP Adam Marshall, who cited the “demanding and all-consuming role”. However, the Sydney Morning Herald notes suggestions the 39-year-old Marshall may be planning to succeed Barnaby Joyce in the corresponding federal seat of New England.

Donation drive

It’s time (past time, actually) for the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly (in the once every two months sense of that ambiguous term) undignified hustle for donations. After what I must confess was a pretty good month on the donations front in March, thanks to the Dunkley by-election, the month of the Cook by-election proved quite a bit less productive. So if you’re an occasional donor (and with due regard to the fact that I say this quite often), now would be an opportune time to exercise your valued generosity.

These posts are also a good opportunity to call attention to looming electoral events, starting with this Saturday’s periodic Tasmanian Legislative Council elections, which will elect three of that chamber’s 15 members. These are often sedate affairs, but this year’s round is unusually interesting: former Greens leader Cassy O’Connor will seek to win the party’s first ever seat in the chamber for the seat of Hobart, and former Labor leader Bryan Green is on the comeback trail in the seat of Prosser, where he faces competition from the Liberals.

Beyond that, we can start to look at the end of an election drought that was relieved only by the surprise early Tasmanian election on March 24, with the Northern Territory going to the polls on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory doing so on October 19, and then Queensland’s big day a week later on October 26.

RedBridge Group: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

Labor maintains its lead in the latest RedBridge poll, while YouGov finds Peter Dutton with a solid lead as preferred prime minister in his home state of Queensland.

The latest federal poll from RedBridge Group has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, as compared with 51.2-48.8 at the last such poll in early February. The primary votes are Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (not specified previously). The full release offers detailed demographic breakdowns and much else besides. Interestingly, both Labor and Coalition voters who report being in financial stress also report being less firm in their voting intention. Questions on immigration include a finding that 72% believe the current rate is making housing less affordable for young people, with only 16% disagreeing, and similar results for the proposition that “Australian cities are too crowded”. The poll was conducted April 12 to 21 from a sample of 1529.

The Courier-Mail also published a finding on Saturday from the YouGov Queensland poll that a preferred prime minister question showed Peter Dutton leading Anthony Albanese 45-37, comparing favourably with the 41-41 result from the January-to-March Newspoll breakdown.

YouGov: 56-44 to LNP in Queensland

A new poll offers the strongest indication yet that a change of government looms in Queensland.

The Courier-Mail reports a new YouGov poll points to something approximating a landslide at the October 26 Queensland election, with the Liberal National Party opening up a 56-44 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 at the last such poll in October. Labor has slumped six points on the primary vote to 27%, with the LNP up three to 44%, the Greens up two to 15% and One Nation up two to 10%. Leadership ratings show Steven Miles at 25% approval and 47% disapproval, while David Crisafulli is respectively on 40% (up three from October) and 26% (steady). Crisafulli leads 40-27 as preferred premier, having led Annastacia Palaszczuk 37-35 in the October poll. The poll was conducted April 9 to 17 from a sample of 1092.

Further developments relevant to the coming election from the past few months:

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports the LNP has committed to not directing preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor. A contrary decision in 2020 helped Amy MacMahon to win South Brisbane for the Greens from Labor’s then deputy leader, Jackie Trad.

• Also from Feeding the Chooks, Labor has preselected Kassandra Hall in Redcliffe and Bisma Asif in Sandgate, respectively to be vacated by Yvette D’Ath and Sterling Hinchliffe. Hall is a former prosecutor and current industrial services officer for the Independent Education Union, who ran for Voluntary Euthanasia Party at the Victorian election in 2018 and was a member of the Liberal Party two decades ago. Asif is a policy adviser to federal Aged Care Minister Anika Wells.

• Stephanie Bennett of the Courier-Mail reports the LNP has confirmed its candidates for the Labor-held marginals of Aspley and Pumicestone, which will respectively be contested by Amanda Cooper, who served Bracken Ridge ward on Brisbane City Council from 2007 to 2019, and Ariana Doolan, 22-year-old electorate officer to Glass House MP Andrew Powell.

• Sally Gall of Queensland Country Life reports former Barcaldine mayor Sean Dillon has won LNP preselection for the rural seat of Gregory, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Lachlan Miller. Dillon won a local party vote ahead of ABC journalist Nicole Bond, Central Highlands councillor Joe Burns and Western Queensland Drought Committee principal Nicole Heslin.

• Heidi Petith of the Daily Mercury reports Glen Kelly, a Rockhampton region grazier, will be the LNP’s candidate for Mirani, which Stephen Andrew has held for One Nation since 2017.

• Samuel Davis of the Cairns Post reports on three prospective nominees for LNP preselection in Cook: David Kempton, who held the seat from 2012 to 2015; Michael Kerr, mayor of Douglas and chair of the Far North Queensland Regional Organisation of Councils; and Kevin Davies, deputy mayor of Mareeba.

• Paul Weston of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports nominees for LNP preselection in the Gold Coast seat of Gaven are Bianca Stone, former Seven Network reporter; Kirsten Jackson, former staffer to Liberal Senator Alan Eggleston and Nationals Senator Ron Boswell, who ran for the seat in 2020; and Lisa Smith, a teacher and rural fire brigade volunteer.

YouGov: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

The fifth federal opinion poll of the week is the best of the bunch for Labor.

A busy week of federal polling continued yesterday with a new result from YouGov, which had Labor’s two-party lead out from 51-49 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 36% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up one). Leadership ratings were not included on this occasion, but there was an Anzac Day-inspired question inviting respondents to choose between assertions that Australia “should be prepared to fight for our country’s values”, favoured by 46%, and that “we should be sceptical of politicians who want to commit troops to wars not necessary to the direct defence of Australia”, favoured by 42%. There was a marked tendency for younger respondents to favour the latter (44% to 34% among the 18-to-24 cohort) and older respondents the former (60% to 34% for those aged 65 and over). The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1514.

Results from a YouGov state poll for Queensland will be published at 2pm today in the Courier-Mail. UPDATE: For now it only offers the finding that 53% would prefer Steven Miles to Annastacia Palaszczuk as Premier and 47% vice-versa. Voting intention evidently to follow tomorrow morning.

Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Labor falls behind in one poll and moves ahead in another. Also: Liberal preselection news for McPherson and the ACT Senate ticket.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll has both parties up on the primary vote, Labor by two to 31% and the Coalition by one to 35%, with undecided down two to 4%. The Greens are on 11%, reversing a three-point spike last time, and One Nation gets its best result for the term with a three-point surge to 9%. The Coalition moves back into the lead on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up three to 49% with Labor down one to 47%. The monthly leadership ratings find Peter Dutton with net positive approval for the first time from this or any other pollster, with a four-point gain on approval to 44% and a three-point drop on disapproval to 41%. Anthony Albanese up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 43% and 48% respectively.

A regular question on national mood found a one-point increase in those who consider the country headed in the wrong direction to 50% and a one point drop on right direction to 32%. When it was put to respondents that the government’s Future Made in Australia policy would “provide funding for large-scale renewable energy projects that support the creation of local jobs”, 51% were in favour with 18% opposed. Fifty-two per cent said they would support nuclear power, up two from October, with 31% opposed, down two. A question on Israel’s military action in Gaza recorded a five-point drop in those who thought Israel should permanently withdraw to 32%, with 19% considering its actions justified (up one) and 19% favouring a temporary ceasefire (down one). Twenty-nine per cent supported recognition of a Palestinian state with 24% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1145.

After two successive polls with the Coalition in the lead, the latest weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor back in front 52-48 on two-party preferred. On the primary vote, Labor is up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition is down three to 35.5%, the Greens are up two-and-a-half to 16% and One Nation is steady at 5.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1617.

Preselection news:

• Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports Leon Rebello, solicitor at King & Wood Mallesons, won a Liberal National Party preselection on the weekend to succeed the retiring Karen Andrews in McPherson. Other candidates were Ben Naday, lawyer and former staffer to Andrews, and David Stevens, managing director of a private strategy and investment consulting firm and Howard government cabinet policy unit adviser.

• Ian Bushnell of RiotACT reports four candidates have nominated for a Liberal preselection vote to be held on Saturday to choose the party’s lead Senate candidate in the Australian Capital Territory: Giulia Jones, who served in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2022; Jerry Nockles, deputy chief executive of Independent Higher Education Australia and unsuccessful candidate for Eden-Monaro in 2022; Jacob Vadakkedathu, director of a management consultancy; and Kacey Lam-Evans, a former ministerial adviser to Christopher Pyne who now works for his lobbying firm. Zed Seselja lost the party’s ACT Senate seat to independent David Pocock at the 2022 election.

• Mark Phillips of Brunswick Voice reports Samantha Ratnam, the Greens state party leader, has won the party preselection ballot for the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills, prevailing over the party’s candidate from 2022, Sarah Jefford.