Bennelong and Herbert “polls”

Talk of a Bennelong poll from the Daily Telegraph prompted much excited chatter yesterday, but it turns out to be a semi-qualitative “study” with a sample of 200. John Howard has 87 backers against 86 for Maxine McKew, with “only one in five swinging or first-time voters” backing Howard. The Townsville Bulletin brings us a poll of 209 respondents in Herbert, conducted by consultants AEC Group. It shows Labor’s candidate George Colbran and Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay each on 41 per cent of the primary vote, with Colbran leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – a swing of 9 per cent. A similar poll published in early September produced the same result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Bennelong and Herbert “polls””

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  1. 681 ShowsOn

    Might, maybe, perhaps, possibly re consider Tony Wright.

    Cautiously, I say.

    He was even okay on local radio today. Despite Matt telling Tony, somewhat accusingly, that he had already declared.

    Bide my time, though. No angel rushing.

    Communism, they’ve already run that one, against Red Julia, a few weeks ago.
    Almost no one knows what they are talking about, anymore, unfortunately for them. The kiddies think their grands are raving if they start on topics like things under beds.

  2. Dyno @564, what you are referring to there are common or garden lies. The sort of thing you expect at every campaign.

    What I’m talking about are BIG LIES. Stuff that perseveres over decades. Unions are evil. The conservatives are better mangers of money. The latest ‘new arrivals’ won’t ‘fit in’. That sort of thing.

  3. Howard promised $500000 over five years to promote orang utan welfare at the request of a disabled child.

    How much did the hipocritical sod offer for research into a cure for the kid’s desease?

    How I would have loved to see a headline “Howard Cares More For Orang utans Than Curing Cereberal Palsy”.

    What a cynical abuser of children this tow rag is.

  4. [Shrek on Mix 94.5 on October 30th ]

    I did mention this on an earlier thread when he was on, but they only uploaded audio fairly recently.

  5. Re 568,

    Diogenes Says:

    November 12th, 2007 at 10:26 pm
    I’ve been banging on about this for a while and now I’ve got something to back me up. On Simon Jackman’s site, Longman (Mal “Jackboots” Brough) has been the second greatest tightener for Labor in the last week (now 34.7% win prob). Perhaps he was the one who set up the dunny on the sacred site. God knows he’s full of sh#t.

    This is great to see, I have money on Longman 😉

  6. Re 592,

    StanS Says:

    November 12th, 2007 at 11:05 pm
    Certain irony that the Coalition launched their campaign in Kevin’s seat.

    Yeah, watch the irony when Kevin closes his campaign on the 23rd by stomping all over Bennelong 😉

  7. mad cow @ 703,
    It’s a fine distinction I’d have thought.
    And Labor has its own mythology anyway – eg there’d be plenty of Labor supporters who would believe that the only reasons people vote Liberal are selfish ones. Which isn’t true.
    So where did they get that idea, if not from a big lie by somebody?

  8. 600
    middle man Says:
    November 12th, 2007 at 11:12 pm
    anyone got any predictions for what might be announced on Wed?

    Yes, Big man Newman, boss of the Brisvegas City Council will announce the 199 Bus from the city to the Cultural Centre where you can alight to get a looksee at KRs speech will be LATE as usual and…

    KR announcing that his thingo (policy) may not be as big as JWHs thingo (policy) but its what you do with that thingo that counts and if he wanted his thingo to be as big as or even bigger than JWHs thingo he could-but he chooses not to because he dosent want to scare the children {moron voters} away.

    Towit, KR has, (he will announce), a very responsible, balanced thingo that will address significant issues that block pro-duc-teev-ity and put pre-sure on ‘intrist reets’ and screw with the world of “workeeng fameeleee-(cough)eees”, as you do.

    I don’t think he will be stupid enough to try and out bid JWH but if he does it or dosent it won’t make a lot of difference: I think the electorate are pretty much locked in by now and that includes at least half of the ‘swingers’ we often talk about.

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