Bennelong and Herbert “polls”

Talk of a Bennelong poll from the Daily Telegraph prompted much excited chatter yesterday, but it turns out to be a semi-qualitative “study” with a sample of 200. John Howard has 87 backers against 86 for Maxine McKew, with “only one in five swinging or first-time voters” backing Howard. The Townsville Bulletin brings us a poll of 209 respondents in Herbert, conducted by consultants AEC Group. It shows Labor’s candidate George Colbran and Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay each on 41 per cent of the primary vote, with Colbran leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – a swing of 9 per cent. A similar poll published in early September produced the same result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Bennelong and Herbert “polls””

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  1. Bizarrely, the Daily Telegraph has accompanied this story about a poll with an online poll, asking voters whether they thought Howard can hang on.

    This is becoming incestuous and cannibalistic.

    (But if you must know, 73% say he’s stuffed. This is on 83 votes.)

  2. Herbert may well be indicative of the ‘defence’ vote. Being an ex-ADF officer, I know there is widespread disquiet amongst many in the services who feel they have been used as pawns by Howard in his attempts to brown-nose Dubya, and resent his attempts to use any defence-related opportunity for a photo-op. And Nelson and the FA-18 purchase scandal (it was for a good cause, Peacock is chairman of Boeing right?) was seen as political interference in defence matters of the worst sort. When the rodent’s most cherished constituency start to desert him, you know he’s gorn. Just leaves the over-65’s wasting away in retirement homes who still hold a candle for the soon-to-be-superannuant. Quite fitting actually. Poetic, even.

  3. Twelve days to go:

    “On the twelfth day of the election the PM porked me with.
    Five hundred thousand dollars for Indonesian Orangutans.”

  4. Re 964 (from last nights thread)

    Harold Says:

    November 11th, 2007 at 10:50 pm
    Julie

    Hope your 18 year old registered in time!

    Harold, my 18 and 21 yo children live back in the USA. However, both are registered and quite firmly in Hillary Clinton’s camp. If I had any children who voted Republican, I would consider that a failure on my part ๐Ÿ˜‰

  5. New Newspoll out – 55-45 (up 2 iirc). Nothing’s really changing.

    Of course, the Dennis says Howard stil eelads comfortably in the “crucial” economic management stakes.

    12 days from an election, I’d have thought the “crucial” question would be “Who are you going to vote for?” but then again I don’t own Newpoll and therefore do not understand it, I guess.

  6. Anyone who lives in Bennelong should write a letter to the editor saying, “What have you got planned for Feb 23rd, make sure its not voting in a by-election, do it in one go”

  7. Morning all,

    Is there a link somewhere to read the FULL TEXT of the letter that Fraser and Whitlam wrote? I linked to Google this morning and found a few articles from the various papers with snippets of what they wrote and the reporters spin, but nowhere have I been able to find a full copy of the letter.

    Off to the gym now, hopefully PB’s will help me with a link by the time I get back ๐Ÿ™‚ Cheers ๐Ÿ™‚

  8. Julie, here’s the letter, which is fairly dry:
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/ministerial_accountability_transcends_party_politics/

    The extra comments by Fraser in some of the reports about the letter are more pointed (I recall him mentioning AWB and Andrews specifically).

    Had to chuckle at the quite passionate reponse by Kevvie tho:

    The Labor leader, Kevin Rudd, promised yesterday to read the letter, saying accountability and the independence of the public service were things he was “quite passionate about”.

  9. Oh dear, the daily Terror strikes fear into the heart of the electors of Bennelong! What a crock of the proverbial stuff.

    Another week of this and the conservatives will be foaming at the mouth and falling to the ground in shuddering spasms with their entire lives flashing before their eyes.

    It’s going to be a sight to behold. Bring it on!

  10. Kirribilli Removals: I love your username mate! You’ll be helping John and Janette vacate to the dregs of Woolstonecraft on November 25?

  11. Well, HH, we’ve already had a call from Hyacinth, and she’s “not happy John” if you know what I mean! In fact she was pretty caustic, and said something about the old man could go and live with “that woman” if she has to leave the harbour house.

    In the words of Carol Bayer Saga’s song:

    Pack up your portrait of the Queen, you’re moving out to day!

  12. Went to a dinner party on Saturday night and convinced two swingers from Eastwood (bennelong) to vote for Maxine. Took my all bloody night and had to stay sober. Swingers are selfish buggers: “what’s in it for me?”

    Interesting though, I was told that the Rodent has been school fetes and charity evenings all over the electorate. Maxine has been doing similar work, but the complaint was that kevin has not showed up in the electorate. Is there some sort of “gentleman’s agreement” that leaders do not campaign in each other’s electorate?

  13. Sharkbait, I’m pretty certain Howard has been in Griffith a while back. Oh, you did say “gentleman”, didn’t you ๐Ÿ˜‰

  14. You’d have to expect at least one inspection of Kirribilli House by the new applicant before the Rodent expires.

    (Yes, I know Kev won’t bludge on the nation’s generosity, but just for humour’s sake!)

    A walk through Bennelong must be on Kev’s itinerary, just to ‘mess with’ the rodent’s mind.

  15. All you labor will be crying on the election night when the Coalition hold on!

    Labor = lol
    Coalition = moving Australia forward

  16. I’m sure Rudd will visit Bennelong before the election, perhaps on November 23 for a big final campaign rally with Maxine?

  17. Think Rudd might be avoiding Bennelong to avoid the suggestion of hubris. Even though it’s a marginal I’m not sure the swingers will see it as such.

  18. HH: You’d think so, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see significant time in NSW plus a couple of fly through visits to WA, TAS and VIC. At least that’s where it looks like being won or lost.

  19. 25 BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!! You Labor still scared cos u gonna lose!

    Labor = desperate
    Liberal = top choice for Australia!

  20. Ave: Scared? I guess thats why a bought a bottle of Verve on the way back from my business trip last week – to drown my sorrows. Wont be opened until Labor wins an election – in less than two weeks.

  21. NB – business trip? You still looking for a job?

    IF labor win there will be more public sector jobs at A$50,000 pa – you MAY be suited for that!

    LOL all labor supporters!

  22. Apparently it’s not just in Higgins that there are no balls. Centrebet has finding a tory with balls @ $26.50. I think we should all put money on it

  23. HH

    Was in Berowra. After the redistribution am now in Bradfield. Have gone from the downright evil to the complete incompetent yet still my vote wont count for much.

  24. 34 – OI what u doin in LDN – u are near me! Cant believe u were allowed in
    37 – ha aha almost funny (for your level)
    38 – hehe (George u are funny)

  25. So today is the last hurdle. If Howard does well with MOB (mother of all bribes) then he will peg back 2%, to finally finish 53/47. If not then no bounce and a whitewash at 55/45.
    I think the former will happen, with a modest pick up of btw 80 and 85 seats.

  26. I’m still sticking to 87 seats centaur_007, can’t see much happening for Howard in the way of a bounce back, even with the pork-a-minute announcements he’ll be making today

  27. Polls of 200 people is just as accountable as a ‘focus group’ of 7 people. While I do believe Herbert will go the way of winning side, I don’t believe the Bennelong stuff.

    I do wish I was back in Townsville to give Colbran that one extra vote to make sure he gets over the line. He is a really nice guy, and is no ring in. He has been a member of the party for years, long before he moved to Townsville and brought the Maccas with him.

  28. One of the consequences of downgrading the “campaign launch” to just another campaign event very close to the election is that it no longer has any real impact. In Whitlam’s day the launch was at the start of the campaign, it was at night and televised, and everyone watched. Now it’s just a feed-in for the 6pm news. Whatever Howard says will get a run on the TV tonight and a day of adulatory headlines in the Murdoch press, but the voters will hardly take notice, since most of them are thoroughly sick of the campaign already. In any case they’ve stopped listening to Howard. It’s hard to see what he could say or do that would get him a “bounce” – he could promise to pave the streets with gold and (a) not many would notice and (b) even fewer would believe him. In any case whatever he does Rudd will trump him on Wednesday. Rudd now has the momentum and holds the cards. It’s a cruel fact of politics that once you’re behind there’s very little you can do to catch up.

  29. Kroger and Hawker were on with Trioli on ABC Sydney Local 702 before the cricket idiot session with Kerry O’Keefe. Kroger manfully stuck to the party line of inexperience but also suggested that the incumbency factor was worth 4% in individual electorates which he characterised by the undecided voter entering the booth with a ballot paper, recognising the incumbent’s name and deciding to vote for the name they knew.

    Is this clutching at straws or what? This may have been true before they put party names on the Reps ballots but it seems to be somewhat fanciful to me.

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