Bennelong and Herbert “polls”

Talk of a Bennelong poll from the Daily Telegraph prompted much excited chatter yesterday, but it turns out to be a semi-qualitative “study” with a sample of 200. John Howard has 87 backers against 86 for Maxine McKew, with “only one in five swinging or first-time voters” backing Howard. The Townsville Bulletin brings us a poll of 209 respondents in Herbert, conducted by consultants AEC Group. It shows Labor’s candidate George Colbran and Liberal incumbent Peter Lindsay each on 41 per cent of the primary vote, with Colbran leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – a swing of 9 per cent. A similar poll published in early September produced the same result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Bennelong and Herbert “polls””

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  1. Howard is about to be retired so it doesn’t matter what policy he announces really. Howard is yesterday’s man with no ideas for the future.

  2. Did you all note how the commercial news bulletins gave Howard’s launch so little prominence in their bulletins tonight, at least in Sydney?
    The Liberals wouldn’t have been happy about that.

  3. JHIAC – BEST nic 😉 i’ve been to jimmie barnes territory recently – my old high school in Elizabeth – i went there in 1961 – it was new – notta ZAC has been spent there since two of sth australia’s smartest cits were my confreres – chatterton and appels – one british (we built amplifiers/radios) the other an geologist (i went very close to blowing his head off with homemade black powder at the local quarry, (sorry rudolf)

  4. @648 Money helps Onimod,

    Ive been on that front line. Money does equal quality. Not talking about the ability to get to uni, Im talking about the quality of the uni, being able to hire tutors, buy books, allow researchers to do their job, see the articel about the internal brain drain in todays media?

    This SHOULD be the clever country, we should be up the top in IT, what are we? A laughingstock and a quarry. Thanks Johnny, just so we could have the liberty of having you as PM. A pox on his life!

  6. 652 [The Liberals wouldn’t have been happy about that.]

    The only thing the Liberals have to be happy about is that centrelink still exists. It will be a busy place on Monday 26th.

  8. 629
    Xamiam Says:
    November 12th, 2007 at 11:31 pm
    606/8 I think Latham actually got it right on Albrechtson – his one success:

    Skanky ho for the LP

    I think he said some sensible things about Bush and Ackerman as well.

  10. I agree HH
    the coverage was underwhelming, (of the launch)

    no one seemed to care, its as if its done and dusted., the ppl have decided, Howard could have anounced a cure for Bird flu and no one would have cared less

    If Rudd had announced it thered be dancing in the streets…

    thems the breaks I think, it’s time!

  11. OK – I’m gonna say something that resonates – ummmmmmm – ok -0ooooooooo kkkkkkkk keating was a smartarse – he was WAYYYYYYYYYYYYY toooooooo smart for me – he SOUNDED wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy 2222222222222222

  14. I guess no more polls until Friday? Presumably they’ll wait until after Rudd’s campaign launch?
    The betting markets are interesting. La Trobe is now being given to Labor, so is Herbert, and the margin is closing fast in Petrie, Longman, Deakin and even Ryan.
    The swing is on, yeah baby!

  15. Glen, the Liberals’ education policy is a shocker. Non means tested and clearly inflationary. It is really more tax cuts almost across the board dressed up as an education policy.

    Housing policy – increasing demand again by allowing baby-boomers to avoid capital gains tax by putting new properties in the names of younguns.

    I was expecting something so much better from the Liberals today. What they delivered was tripe.

  16. [652 HH- As I said earlier, on Ch9 Adelaide it was the tenth item and they mentioned “landslide loss”.]

    Most of the News Ltd tabloids have reported it through the prism of it being Howard’s last ditch effort. A pretty cynical way to look at it, but most likely that is what their readers will be thinking.

  18. Gerr, the ABC made a big deal about it, but they’ve become the new cheerleaders for Team Rodent since Madam Lash started cracking the whip over on the ABC board. Chris “Toolman’s” performance on PM tonight was perhaps the worst ever from a political correspondent.

  20. Anyone think the Ruddster will do more than the minimum at his launch? Tactically it is in JWH’s hands to try and win so why bother, but it’d be nice to see something.

  22. Ta HH,

    I had to turn off pm when Costello came on, I thought I dont have to listen to this imbecilic buffoon! You can tell when the conservatives a shot, they start talking communism, COMMUNISM!!!! DO YOU BELIEVE IT?!?!?

    No, neither does the electorate. They know its the end.

  23. Petrie, Longman and Ryan are all seats that the Libs have actively tried to lose. It will be the best election ever if all these changed hands on the same night.
    These three seats have all got big elements of why the Government is on the nose.

  26. “672
    Gerr Says:
    November 13th, 2007 at 12:00 am
    Ta HH,

    I had to turn off pm when Costello came on, I thought I dont have to listen to this imbecilic buffoon! You can tell when the conservatives a shot, they start talking communism, COMMUNISM!!!! DO YOU BELIEVE IT?!?!?

    No, neither does the electorate. They know its the end.”

    I kinda liked Costello’s witty jab at the so-called economic conservatives joining something called Socialist Forum. The fact that 99 out of 100 Australian voters would have no idea what he was going on about is neither here nor there, of course – but it gave Mr Potato Head the chance to air another undergraduate debating point. Hyuk, hyuk. hyuk.

    FUN FACT: When Peter Costello was at University, he belonged to those well-known economic conservatives the Social Democrats. I even have a leaflet of their’s somewhere, with his name on it.

  28. I think it is vital that the hospital plan is rolled out and spelt out so that Australians can be confident that the health system will begin to function again. It has basically been in mothballs since Labor was last in power. The tories just cannot get their heads around how to run a health system.

  29. I expect Rudd’s speech to have something on education (even I want to know what this revolution is all about). Apart from that I’d say there’d be a few token things and that look good, plus a lot of ‘visionary’ type talk that fits the narrative.

  30. [I had to turn off pm when Costello came on, I thought I dont have to listen to this imbecilic buffoon! You can tell when the conservatives a shot, they start talking communism, COMMUNISM!!!! DO YOU BELIEVE IT?!?!?]

    It is more than just a coincidence that Costello, Vaille and Howard all invoked the red menance. Costello said socialism / red’s under the bed, Vaille used the word Communism, and Howard said “Welfare State”.

    If there only tactic left is the threat of communism, they are going to lose by 20 seats.

  32. And the Libs see nothing wrong with being associated with this lot;

    AN ELDERLY Exclusive Brethren man who is a former church leader and trustee of a Queensland Brethren private school, has been charged with sexual offences against a child.

    It is the third incident of alleged sexual abuse of children to emerge from the secretive sect in the past 12 months.

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/brethren-man-on-sex-charges/2007/11/12/1194766590239.html

  34. Hey Voter boy I suspect your liberal mate may well have called it quits.
    The three stooges is great. I also like the circus.
    First we had the lion tamer -costello
    the clown- Vaile
    the magician-Howard

  36. [AN ELDERLY Exclusive Brethren man who is a former church leader and trustee of a Queensland Brethren private school, has been charged with sexual offences against a child.

    It is the third incident of alleged sexual abuse of children to emerge from the secretive sect in the past 12 months.]

    Surprise, surprise…

    When are we going to learn that secretive organisations keep secrets for reasons, rarely are they good reasons.

  37. Not the other Tim: In the tv cartoon Family Guy, there is a scene about the Young Republicans and when asked what they do, they say ‘We help those who can already help themselves’. That is so true about the Tories everywhere.

  41. I am surprised that I have not seen any signs of factional infighting today after a bad newspoll and a failed policy launch. Surely Brough must be pissed off that the Nuclear Power plant on Bribie Island isn’t going to get off the ground if the Liberals lose. I reckon that if we get to this time next week without any serious infighting and Liberal factional brawling erupting, it will be amazing.

    The pressure must really be on some of the sitting members who believed the hype that this election would be a cake walk for the Liberals. They will be sorry now that they didn’t roll Howard at APEC time.

    Oh Dear, funny how the same people who believed in the trickle down voodoo economics theory also fell for the budget bounce, narrowing and all we need is a miracle from John Howard theory. How wrong they were on each count.

    ps Where was Bruce Flegg the state Liberal Leader while the launch was on?

  42. “684
    centaur_007 Says:
    November 13th, 2007 at 12:15 am
    Hey Voter boy I suspect your liberal mate may well have called it quits.
    The three stooges is great. I also like the circus.
    First we had the lion tamer -costello
    the clown- Vaile
    the magician-Howard.”

    I’m determined not to ring him again until next Wednesday at the earliest. I’m sure by then he’ll have lots of good anecdotes. You know, I was just thinking earlier how Howard will be remembered (even by his own side)- and in among the mix, he’ll have to be remembered as the man whose blind ambition and spite wrecked the careers of two potential Liberal PMs – Andrew Peacock and Peter Costello. Of course Fraser managed to screw over a reigning Liberal PM, but Howard’s score is pretty impressive…

  44. Did I hear that right on Media Watch?

    That the Skanky Ho’s hubby (John O’Sullivan) campaigns for Turnbull in Wentworth?

    So what does that make CO? Oh yeah, fem b!tch to the bull dyke!

    What a nice little bit of incest we have over at the GG, eh? You can just imagine the conversation:

    JA: Oh Caroline, sweetie, if you want me to whip you good and hard like you deserve again tonight, can you get all juicy with that blonde piece running in Malcolm’s seat and entice her with a front page story if she’ll preference big, strong, musky Malcolm. Yeah, I’ll even wear the leather and let you lick it. Now, go do it!

    It’s truly hot and feverish in JA’s little head, ain’t it?

  45. Wow, that Ovaltine expose was a classic – had me fondly recalling the Littlemore days (I knew a woman who had a picture of him on her bedroom wall once).

    Maybe this Ecuyer episode is a Sydney thing, where vapid social climbing (sweetie) seems to be an ardently pursued pastime among the populace. I wrote several months ago that a number of public servants, once they feel safe, will make the dash across the meadow towards the light. Looks like Attard got in early with a middle finger bared at her nemesis, the GG.

    Exquisite timing, it made up for some of the teeth-grinding ignorance shown by the voters portrayed on 4 Corners. I don’t think it’s fair that some posters here say they’re stupid – many of them simply don’t take any notice of politics from day to day the way most of us do, and then are left trying to construct a realistic picture from the slanted and often deceptive messages they get carpet-bombed with in the lead-up to polling day.

    But if you’re really concerned about your kids’ future, or the country’s, then why not at least make the effort to flick through a broadsheet now and then, instead of just rolling your eyes and changing channels?

  46. 608 Glen Says: November 12th, 2007 at 11:15 pm

    It’s sad that the party with vision and with good policies on education and housing is so far behind in the polls.

    Pffftt…

    If the libs had adjusted the negative gearing laws when they had senate control, there would now be no housing crisis. They caused the crisis in the first place with the introduction of the policy as it stands. They slashed funding to education the second they got in power, and are only NOW getting back to the original funding level.

    I’m not saying they deserve to lose. I’m saying, we don’t deserve them.

  48. What the Papers Say.

    Apart from GG and Fin Review, Libs who Launch doesn’t sound like top of the pops.

    At GG. Nothing triumphal from Lauren Wilson on the topic.
    Nicole Kidman capturing attention at second billing.

    Melb Age.
    Reporting on cops shopped.
    Melb city councillor CEO quits to go to Dubai.
    Human cloning.
    No mention of La La Launch.

    SMH
    Transport Smart Card debacle.
    The Gap to be security fitted. (not surprised)
    Employee of 18 years dismissed for having 2 beers at lunchtime Safeway/Woolies.

    Fin Review
    Yes, will mention the Launch, in detail.

    Advertiser.
    Tiger airways to fly to adelaide. (to old airport, mysteriously)
    Kevin Foley really, really mad on racecourse issue.

    Hobart Mercury.
    Tassie group forming to litigate, re pulp mill.
    Some mention of a Mr Hunt.

    Ta, William.

  49. Bruce Flegg as state Liberal Leader has to be senior in ranking to Gridlock Cambell who is lord Mayor of Brisbane City Council. What are the Liberals doing tying Gridlock Campbell to a dying regime. Not smart politics I’d suggest. He is Lord Mayor of a Labor majority coucil.

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