Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Little change on voting intention in the latest Essential Research poll, but a dip from Labor’s recent highs in Roy Morgan.

Essential Research’s fortnightly voting intention numbers, which include a 5% undecided component, have both Labor and the Coalition down a point on the primary vote, to 33% and 30% respectively, with the Greens steady on 14%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor up one to 53%, the Coalition down one to 42% and undecided steady on 5%. The poll includes has Anthony Albanese’s monthly personal ratings, on which he is down a point on approval to 52% and up one on disapproval to 35%.

Other findings from this fortnight’s survey include strong majority support for six proposed federal government measures to deal with the cost of living, ranging from 77% for electricity and gas price caps to 57% for changing industrial relations laws to make it easier for workers to negotiate pay rises. Fifty-four per cent now rate themselves as financially struggling or worse, up five since March, with 46% rating themselves comfortable or secure, down five. Asked how much impact federal government policies had on the cost of living, 31% chose a lot, 40% a little, 18% not that much and 5% hardly anything.

On climate change, 39% now rate that the government is not doing enough, down four from October and the lowest result this question has yielded going back to 2016, with doing enough up a point to 33% and doing too much up three to 16%. Fifty-one per cent support a national authority to manage the transition to renewable energy with 20% opposed, and 50% support government assessment of greenhouse gas emissions when considering new projects with 20% opposed, but only 34% support ending future coal and gas extraction projects with 35% opposed. Asked whether parliamentary approval should be required for a decision to go to war, the sample split 90-10 in favour of yes. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1133.

Also out yesterday was the latest Roy Morgan result, which had Labor’s two-party lead in from 57-43 to 54.5-45.5 from primary votes of Labor 34.5%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 13%.

UPDATE: Also out this morning from The Australian is results from Newspoll on the Indigenous voice, which finds 54% in favour and 38% opposed, breaking down to 55-36 in New South Wales, 56-35 in Victoria, 49-43 in Queensland, 51-41 in Western Australia, 60-33 in South Australia and 55-39 in Tasmania. The results are aggregated from three polls conducted since the start of February, but sub-sample sizes are as low as 334 in the case of Tasmania, increasing to 1414 in the case of New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,550 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 51 of 51
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  1. From Google:

    ‘A neo-liberal: favouring policies that promote free-market capitalism, deregulation, and reduction in government spending.’

    It turns out that the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments were not exactly neo-liberal. They left a trillion dollar debt. The tax take was the highest ever. They were more interested in duopolies and cartels than in a free market. They were into massive subsidies for their mates.


  2. Shogunsays:
    Monday, April 10, 2023 at 4:35 pm
    MABWM
    1) “Chinese Whispers” has recently caused a stir on social media (Married at First Sight),

    What about:
    Russian roulette
    Irish twins
    Spanish prisoner
    Dutch courage
    Mexican stand-off
    Nigerian prince scam
    ????????????????

    Indian summer.

    Do you know Australian summer sun causes skin cancer whereas Skin cancer is unheard of in Indian summer conditions?


  3. 98.6says:
    Monday, April 10, 2023 at 5:05 pm
    In todays paper it says :-
    ‘Chinese visitors to the Gold Coast are on track to return to 80% of pre-Covid levels by Christmas’.
    By the way we have treated them, as future invaders of our country or as a country we will be at war with within 3 years, one has to wonder why they would bother to come here at all.
    Hopefully, with the conga line of Premiers and our PM visiting China and restoring trade and diplomatic relations with our LARGEST TRADING PARTNER the Chinese will see that not everyone in Australia sees them as the enemy.

    Ha ha ha…


  4. Aaron newtonsays:
    Monday, April 10, 2023 at 5:29 pm
    albanese seems to be governing a lot moreconservagtive then shortin would have had labor won in 2019 it sort of proves the faction labils have basickly lost relivants shorten had a more radical economick policy with bowen

    There is saying
    The is a woman behind a man’s success. 🙂

  5. Snappy Tom @ #2461 Monday, April 10th, 2023 – 6:34 pm

    The italicised text in this post suggests the story was run in the Daily Telegraph, but the link at the bottom is ascribed to the National Indigenous Times.

    If Murdoch’s Telegraph were running a story of this nature – basically accusing Dutton of dishonesty – the would be highly significant in terms of the Murdochracy’s support – or lack thereof – for Dutton as leader.

    Any way of confirming the source – e.g. is it a Telegraph story reproduce by NI Times?

    Easiest way is to google a quote that’s being attributed to the Telegraph story and see what comes up:

    Because the paywall is only for you, person of flesh and blood. They’re happy to let Google’s bots access and index the entire article. They rely on it, in fact.

  6. a r @ #2508 Monday, April 10th, 2023 – 8:16 pm

    Because the paywall is only for you, person of flesh and blood. They’re happy to let Google’s bots access and index the entire article. They rely on it, in fact.

    You want a frightening scenario? ChatGPT can get through all the right-wing nutjob paywalls that are the only thing standing between rational people and batshit insanity.

  7. PBs told us before 6pm on Saturday 25th March as to who will win the NSW state election.
    The question was, ‘With everything you know about politics, who will win, Labor or Coalition’?
    NOT WHO YOU VOTED FOR or WHO YOU WILL VOTE FOR but WHO WILL WIN.
    Are you on the following list of those who got it right.

    Results for Labor will win:
    98.6
    Mick Quinlivan
    MABWM
    Desie (Minority)
    Malcolm
    Scott (Majority)
    Newcastle Moderate (Minority)
    Ven (Minority)
    Voice Endeavour (Thin Majority)
    Melbourne Mammoth (Minority)
    Evan (Minority)
    Outside Left (Majority)
    Pol Night (Minority)
    Leftie Brawler (Majority 1-4 seats)
    citizen (Minority)
    Historyintime (Minority)
    ChrisfromEdgecliff (Majority)
    Mr Mysterious (Majority)
    Griff (Majority)
    Granny Annie (Majority)
    Terminator (Minority hoping for Majority)
    Quasor
    Kelta (Majority by 3 seats)
    Socrates (Majority)
    Freemoney (Minority)
    Nathana (Majority of 6)
    PuffyTMD
    jt1983 (Minority or Majority)
    MadHouse (Majority small)
    Fargo61 (Majority)
    Boerwar (Majority)
    subgeometer
    MixedMemberMuddle (Minority)
    clem attee (Majority)
    Bob Lynch (Minority)
    Aqualung (A win) (70 seats?)
    Conor
    C@tmomma (worked for it on Sat)
    Page Boi (Minority)
    frednk (based on press behavour)
    Mick (Slim Majority)
    agoo44 (Majority but less than 4)
    The Banana Republic (Majority small)
    S. Simpson (Minority)
    The Apostate Stooge
    Steve777 (Minority)
    BT Says (Majority)
    yabba (Minority)
    Lars Von Trier (Majority)
    Kirsdarke
    Bird of Paradox (Hello Premier Minns)
    Donut (Majority)
    Dr Doolittle (Majority by women)
    Cronus (Majority)
    Oliver Sutton (Labor Premier)
    Macca RB (Minority to Majority by 1 or 2)
    Henry
    Hugoaugogo (Majority on 48)
    Rex Douglas (Labor in the bag)
    Bennelong Lurker (Minority)

    Apologies if I’ve missed anyone.

  8. GET A GRIP@docrussjackson
    Wasn’t sure about @elonmusk’s new labeling regime for media platforms other than @Twitter. But I have say, some of them are refreshingly informative…

  9. you would think a barister would have more important things then spend all there time on hear but i think the china threat is mostly us properganda china only seems to becopying the us approach is there still liberal party baristersh

  10. vbut whiy dont liberal suport the voice this legislated voice is not a option dutton saying no to evrything just makes him a opputunish callwell was a very bad leader thankfuly whitlam came after him

  11. i would like to thank that very informed james masola who wants the alix smith award for writting what ever rubish is sent to him buy liberals protending bermingham and payne are close friends with duton and he is safe and suported buy the small moderits plus protending sussan ley is a moderit she is part of the hawke group and mcgrath as un alined he is from the qld right

  12. 98.6 @ #2402 Monday, April 10th, 2023 – 4:01 pm

    Snapshot https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/toyota-lexus-and-bmw-top-reliability-surveyToyota

    So I click on the link above and I start reading :-
    WhichCar ? survey.

    *Toyota Corolla Cross tops reliability survey
    *Mercedes-Benz GLE at the bottom
    *But study is limited by number of models and brands surveyed

    and that’s where I stopped reading.

    There are 14 major global corporations that control more than 60 major automotive brands across the globe, and that doesn’t even count the smaller local companies in various countries around the world.
    There’s a world of choice in today’s car market, with more than 400 different models and many car types available.

    How many of those 60 brands and the 400 models were surveyed in WhichCar ?

    Did any brand have to pay to be included in the survey ?
    Was anyone bribed to give a good report for a particular car ?
    If some car brands can lie about diesel emissions, they will lie about anything.

    If the survey was anything like the 2019 federal election surveys then it deserves to be put in the rubbish bin.

    If you had actually read the link, you would have found that the survey was carried out in the USA by:
    Not-for-profit American firm Consumer Reports.

    The result is according to its latest annual survey of more than 300,000 owners of vehicles purchased between 2000 and 2023 in the United States and revealed has revealed Toyota, Lexus and BMW are rated the most reliable car brands.

    Get that? 300,000 respondents. Multiple Toyota models were covered. Only 2 Mercedes models had enough instances to be confident of the conclusions.

    To quote ” Mercedes-Benz is at the bottom of the predicted reliability ladder – dropping by five points compared to last year. The survey was limited to two models: the E-Class (29/100) and related GLE (23/100).

    It’s followed by Jeep and Volkswagen at the bottom, with five models each surveyed.

    Tesla improved its position by four points to rank 19th among the legacy carmakers, with its reliability score on par with Chevrolet ”

    Its probably a good idea to actually read an article before publishing your false conclusions from your brief, erroneous scan.

    Here is a USA Today report on the same survey. A quote: “Mercedes-Benz was named Consumer Reports’ least reliable brand for the first time after owners reported electronics issues such as screens that went blank. ” Such prestige!

    What are the least reliable car models?
    Consumer Reports ‘least reliable car models’ ranking includes cars with at least two model years of data.

    1. 2023 Jeep Wrangler

    2. 2022 Mercedes-Benz GLE

    3. 2022 Jeep Gladiator

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2022/11/15/reliability-cars-consumer-reports-ranking/10703135002/

  13. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, April 10, 2023 at 7:51 pm
    Holy Week celebrations (this week, not sometime in the past) in Spain are a throwback, reminds one of the religious infiltrators in the Liberal Party ..
    ____________________________________________________________
    Interesting graphics there of the Catholic penitents during Spain’s holy week. I think I’ve seen such images before.
    One curious question I have is how is it that the Ku Klux Klan’s white robes bear such an uncanny resemblance. The KKK after all has hated Catholics almost as much as it has Afro-Americans. I find it odd they would adopt such attire.
    Can anyone answer that?

  14. Rex mentioned the very powerful film Cry Freedom earlier this evening. As a young man that had quite an effect on me.

    Several years later I had the privilege of attending the Nelson Mandela rally on the forecourt of the Opera house on a beautiful day – one that only Sydney can put on in my opinion. I had my ACTU ‘welcome’ T shirt on, and I was but one amongst perhaps 50,000 attendees.

    There were helicopters everywhere, but for some reason they all buzzed off at the same time, just as the rally was kicking off. In their absence … silence … all that you could hear in that 50,000 strong crowd was the wind playing with the guide ropes on the flagpoles … it was powerfully eerie … and then the Sydney Trade Union Choir struck up Nkosi Sikelel’ iAfrika before the Great Man started to speak: an anthem that features heavily through the movie.

    This is the choir singing that anthem on a separate occasion at St Mary’s cathedral during the Mandela visit:

    https://youtu.be/g4hU-iQlors

    Edited: this is a short news clip of the Opera House rally. It was quite a day:

    https://youtu.be/Z4iumQL1Lxw

  15. Sceptic says:
    Monday, April 10, 2023 at 8:39 pm

    Dutton lies AGAIN.

    https://nit.com.au/09-04-2023/5548/liberal-party-briefing-notes-backed-national-voice
    ____________

    According to google, that story appeared in the Daily Telegraph 3 days ago – which would make it Good Friday.

    Couldn’t have been better calculated to be ignored by the msm – most of whom have enjoyed a long weekend.

    I won’t be surprised if we hear nothing about it this week -it’s so far in the past, it might as well never have happened.

    Well played, Newscorp.

  16. 98.6

    Thanks. Close but no cigar on my prediction of a Labor majority. Not far off though and if Minns follows Albo’s lead next time it might come true.

  17. If you want to help the left labor movement best you and all the other back room terrigals and legal beagles exit stage left.

    Nothing personal, but for me the only thing worse than the back room castlereagh st types that destroyed the party in 2011 are people that claim to be them.

    Ditch the suit, leave the CBD, forget about antidotes of bumping into him and her and this MLC member and that former party sec etc and go and out to the regions and put in an honest week’s work using a shovel and tools to earn a crumb.

  18. My shovel and tools days of manual labour are well behind me leftie. Also, about a third of my practice is outside Sydney: from Bega to Bourke, with the Riverina in between.

    When in Sydney I try to avoid wearing a suit as much as possible. I prefer back chinos under my robes. It makes it easier to ride my bike to and from the city.

    You are also out by about 3 years. The shitfuckery that destroyed the party really kicked off in 2008, not 2011. Although the signs of the inevitable decline and fall of the machine were evident as far back as 2003: I reckon we should of known we were fucked when Eric contracted to Mark Markson to do fundraising on behalf of the party once Della went to the upper house.

    And I’m definitely the court jester.

  19. Steve777 at 6.13 pm, Boerwar at 6.25 pm and Enough Already at 6.28 pm

    EA: “Putin is shaping up to be the worst butcher of Russians since Stalin.”

    Putin is already there, but, in the same way that Stalin attacked minorities within the USSR (including the Tartars of Crimea), deaths of Russians in Putin’s war are much higher among the poorest peoples in Russia, who are Russian citizens but not ethnically Russian, e.g. Dagestanis, Buryatis, etc.

    And many ethnic Russian citizens of Ukraine have died, e.g. in Mariupol.

    The political legacy of Putin’s butchery in Russia will be delayed, because of the pervasive fear gripping the whole society. This is so pervasive that it affects the way people now grieve sudden deaths not caused by the war. See:

    https://russiandissent.substack.com/p/life-on-the-banks-of-war?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=844709&post_id=111572971&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

    ‘Life on the Banks of War’ by Anna Ochkina (31 March), who observed:

    “Sudden grief no longer unites people as it used to, as it always has been. Everyone experienced the existential horror of this sudden untimely death alone, as if afraid to share it with others. … Russia is now at war, and even the attitude towards death has become an ideology.”

    Yes, the scale of Russian deaths means many families are grieving, but in an isolated way. There is no public space for grieving, such as exists even to a limited degree in the Iranian theocracy, despite its brutal repression.

    There is another terrible background factor. Deaths from Covid in Russia until the end of 2021 (before Omicron got there) were over 1 million. The figure for Ukraine was about 180,000. There was much pain and grieving in Russia (and Ukraine) before Putin’s war, albeit from a different cause.

    For comparison, until the end of 2021 the estimated Covid death rate in the US was 1,800 per million, in Ukraine about 2,220 and in Russia 3,750.

    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2902796-3

  20. Andrew as I said, nothing personal but just detest a lot of the historical control your types have had on the sussex st machine.

    With the exception of perhaps Wran the practitioners have always coughed up the worst the NSW factions have ever offered to macq st.

    I’ve seen them all come and go in my 38 years- from the Australian idol auditioning types at uni 2 years into a legal degree prowling the branches for one to run as an office bearer.

    They end up becoming parasitic drains on the party once it becomes clear to them they will never be picked for high office. They begin to fracture in the chambers and eventually are spat out the arse end as as seen on tv “property conveyancing specialists” after being passed over for a decade on the annual QC/SC eligibility lists and disqualified from the bar after one too many coke possession charges. These people have nothing to offer the organisation and yet it is infected with them. Bring back the SME, teachers, doctors, lay types running and representing the party.

    Regarding the sussex st decline I do agree that after the 2003 high water mark that the rot set in.

    I know I carry on all the time about the costa/tripodi/ terrigal/ Beirut mafia racketeers that are to blame in fairness Carl Scully and his rapid fall from grace probably proceeds those see you next Tues… characters.

  21. Leftie, i believe Andy’s issue is that he has r@t consciousness – the party is no good unless his prescriptions and ideas are followed to the letter. When the inevitable happens and andy doesnt get his way you get this rage at the party which andy exhibits on here so often.

  22. The Herald are going fully troppo over Macron’s sensible comments. Dear old Bevan (another Omega Theta Pi fraternity alumni by the looks of him) in particular has his Neidermeyer jodhpurs in a twist with this editorial :

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/macron-s-taiwan-comments-poorly-timed-but-do-raise-the-big-question-20230410-p5cz9k.html

    He is also dead wrong about his AUKUS conclusions at the end. Continuing to contract to the French for subs – either the conventional ones we cancelled or their suburb modern nuclear ones – would have bound the two most powerful South Pacific neighbours together for a strategic common purpose: the defence and security of Australia and the South Pacific – and not implicitly tied our fate to the game of throne’s shenanigans in North Asia as China and America wrestle for pre-eminence: it is us throwing in on that gambit – and not the rise of China per se – that represents an existential risk to Australia.

  23. I was living in South Africa at the time of Steve Biko’s death.

    I would go down during the day from my work desk to look at the news headlines coming in on the teleprinter at the bank and was shocked when I saw that Biko had died.

    when I got back to my desk I mentioned it to a few fellow workers (all white) and their reaction were either good or indifference.

    As an Australian I found this strange.

    The Interior Minister Jimmy Kruger when asked to comment said ‘Dit laat my koud’ which literally translates to that leaves me cold.

  24. leftieBrawler says:
    Monday, April 10, 2023 at 8:04 pm

    Calwell * damn Apple auto spelling
    leftieBrawler says:
    Monday, April 10, 2023 at 9:22 pm

    Ditch the suit, leave the CBD, forget about antidotes of bumping into him and her and this MLC member and that former party sec etc and go and out to the regions and put in an honest week’s work using a shovel and tools to earn a crumb.
    ____________
    But keep the Iphone.

  25. Andrew_Earlwood at 9.58 pm

    You should read Hugh White’s carefully formulated essay in the Monthly, as should Socrates and anybody with an alternative view about what AUKUS is. That essay provides the basis for a realistic policy debate, not name-calling.

  26. Subscription, or do you have a link Dr Doolittle?

    I respect Hugh White, and usually find myself in broad agreement with his thoughts, although I differ on matters of particulars from time to time.

    He got up Sheridan’s goat in the aftermath of the AUKUS announcement the other week, but at the moment I cant recall the precise details of what upset Greg at the time.

  27. Bob I have a grandparent from a small Dutch founded farming village outside of Bulawayo formerly called enkledoorn (spelling).

    Both Rho/ zim and ZA have been progressively ruined and run into the ground since their respective transitions to majority rule in almost every counted metric . Not racist just the sad, indisputable truth. They should have had staged, incremental steps before being handed the keys to ensure continued prosperity and rule of law, instead they have both gone from bread baskets to failed states in barely a few decades.

  28. leftieBrawler says:
    Monday, April 10, 2023 at 10:19 pm

    Both Rho/ zim and ZA have been progressively ruined and run into the ground since their respective transitions to majority rule in almost every counted metric.
    ____________________
    It helps if every counted metric is based upon disregarding the majority of the population.

  29. Nath I’m not defending minority rule at all in any capacity based on nothing more than one’s skin pigmentation.

    But you can’t avoid the reality that the way both transitioned has been nothing nothing short of unmitigated disasters all round unfortunately

  30. Yes, a well reasoned argument:

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2023/april/hugh-white/penny-wong-s-next-big-fight#mtr

    I think he is wrong in a particular – namely the nuclear subs for australia argument – which IMO is not as clear cut as protagonists on either side of the debate would have us all believe, but this paragraph rings true and is simply chilling in its implications:

    “… AUKUS has taken this a huge step further, because it centres around a radically strengthened commitment by Australia to fight alongside America in a major war in Asia. Defence Minister Richard Marles has said that Australia has made no promises, but the AUKUS program itself embodies Australia’s acceptance of America’s expectations. The US decision to give us access to its most sensitive military technologies, and especially to sell us Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines taken from the US Navy, is simply unthinkable unless it is sure that Australian forces would be fully committed to the fight if it goes to war with China. If we fail to meet those expectations, the AUKUS deal will be off, as Marles and his colleagues must understand. So, suddenly Australia has become something much more like one of America’s NATO allies, automatically committed to fight if war breaks out with America’s major regional rival. That is certainly the way Washington sees it. That’s why it has embraced AUKUS. Our siding with America against China has thus been taken to a whole new level. AUKUS guarantees that what Dutton said is right: if AUKUS stands, it is inconceivable that Australia would not fight by America’s side if America ever goes to war with China. This is an outcome that the Labor government seems to wholeheartedly embrace.”

    This fundamentally was why I posted a one word response why I first heard of Morrison’s marketing scam and Albo’s unquestioning acceptance of it on that fateful September morning back in 2021: catastrophe.

  31. To add to the awkwardness of the SMH going berserk on Macron (seriously, three articles on Easter Monday guys?), it seems that the article they were going off was ‘inventive’ in its presentation of an interview actually given to French media basically adding editorial content that Macron didn’t actually say, and overall being misleading in its presentation.

    The actual interview dealt with China very little, but was more concerned about Macron’s aspiration to make Europe an independent force in world affairs. (Personally, should note that he’s said similar things ever since he got elected – his record in actually progressing this is more patchy). He’s also considerably closer to van de Leyen on ‘decoupling’ than politico.eu presented.

  32. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Monday, April 10, 2023 at 9:58 pm

    The Herald are going fully troppo over Macron’s sensible comments. Dear old Bevan (another Omega Theta Pi fraternity alumni by the looks of him) in particular has his Neidermeyer jodhpurs in a twist with this editorial :

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/macron-s-taiwan-comments-poorly-timed-but-do-raise-the-big-question-20230410-p5cz9k.html

    He is also dead wrong about his AUKUS conclusions at the end. Continuing to contract to the French for subs – either the conventional ones we cancelled or their suburb modern nuclear ones – would have bound the two most powerful South Pacific neighbours together for a strategic common purpose: the defence and security of Australia and the South Pacific – and not implicitly tied our fate to the game of throne’s shenanigans in North Asia as China and America wrestle for pre-eminence: it is us throwing in on that gambit – and not the rise of China per se – that represents an existential risk to Australia.
    ____________

    Niedermeyer (hint: he’s wearing a silver helmet) helps out with a golf lesson…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNm5RZoL2Ro

  33. Socrates says:
    Monday, April 10, 2023 at 9:21 pm
    98.6
    Thanks. Close but no cigar on my prediction of a Labor majority. Not far off though and if Minns follows Albo’s lead next time it might come true.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    98.6 says :
    I took the easy way out and just said Labor would win. Looking back, like you, I thought that it may have been a majority but anyway I’ll take the cigar and you should too.
    Cheers !

  34. 98.6

    I forgot to record my prediction. Please put me down for a Labor minority government of 45 seats. Thanks in anticipation. Pepsy.

  35. Re NSW results, wow!

    This optional preferential voting thing really skews the results. I suspect next time, unless of course the ALP implodes, (I had a casually racist alternative term in mind…) they should romp home next time for the same reason the LNP hung on to so many seats this time.

    As for Aston, on the ground it always felt like a thumping ALP win.

    Dutts is in for a world of pain. I can’t wait for the Cook by-election. A Labor or non LNO win there truly would throw the cat amongst the pigeons. I’d love to see some polling, but only from NEWSPOLL.

  36. Dr Doolittle

    Thanks for the link to the Hugh White article, I will have a read. Like Andrew I have both political and technical concerns about getting Virginia SSNs for the RAN.

    I am now satisfied that the SSN cost, including sustainment, is comparable to what might have been expected over thirty years. However it is still the case the US SSNs are far more expensive than British or French SSNs.

    Although not discussed much in the big picture, I am also concerned about the Virginia maintenance demands. They are capable but complex beasts and need a lot of maintenance. Getting ASC to learn how to maintain Virginias is really throwing them in at the deep end. I hope they learn to swim quickly.

    The RAN getting a few Virginias virtually forces ASC to learn how to maintain them, which is very much in the USNs interest, given their large backlog.

    On Ukraine, I found this article interesting. A former US army meteorologist is analysis satellite data to advise Ukraine when the weather will change. This influences both when the mud will dry sufficiently for offensive operations (prediction: not till May) and optimal times for satellite photos with maximal clarity to give to Ukrainian commanders.
    https://www.dw.com/en/countdown-to-counteroffensive-when-will-mud-season-end-in-ukraine/a-65204612

  37. Mavis says:
    Monday, April 10, 2023 at 11:44 pm
    98.6
    I forgot to record my prediction. Please put me down for a Labor minority government of 45 seats. Thanks in anticipation. Pepsy.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    I’m sorry, predictions do not open till 28 days prior to the next 2027 NSW state election, which will be held no sooner than 30th January 2027 and no later than the 27th March 2027.

  38. Dr Doolittle

    “ The political legacy of Putin’s butchery in Russia will be delayed, because of the pervasive fear gripping the whole society. This is so pervasive that it affects the way people now grieve sudden deaths not caused by the war. See:

    https://russiandissent.substack.com/p/life-on-the-banks-of-war?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=844709&post_id=111572971&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

    ‘Life on the Banks of War’ by Anna Ochkina (31 March)”
    —————————————————————————-

    Nice pickup, thanks for posting, it was well worth the read, genuine food for thought. It also seems that due to both fear and propaganda, Russians may never know the truth behind the war but may forever believe a lie.

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