The monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers joins most others in showing One Nation leading on the primary vote in its latest monthly result, with a five-point surge placing them at 29%. Labor is down one to 28%, the Coalition are down three to 20% (16% among women, equal with the Greens), and the Greens are steady on 12%.
Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up one to 35%, while his poor and very poor rating is down one to 55%. Angus Taylor is respectively up one to 38% and up three to 32%. This pollster has been unusual in having Angus Taylor leading Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister and does so again now, though the margin has narrowed from 33-30 to 32-31. A three-way preferred prime minister question, asked for the first time, suggests most of those favouring Taylor over Albanese in fact prefer Pauline Hanson to either: she is at 33% compared with 29% for Albanese and 16% for Taylor.
The poll again inquired about the three main contentious budget measures, finding 33% in favour of the negative gearing changes (down two on last month) with 26% opposed (up five); 31% in favour of the capital gains tax measures (down five) and 31% opposed (up 10); and 29% in favour of the changes to taxing of family trusts (down five) and 34% opposed (up 11). The poll was conducted Monday to Saturday from a sample of 1801.
$4m now.
Gosh
The new Roy Morgan poll should be released sometime today.
Yet more polling which seems to confirm that One Nation has solidified its vote in the high 20s/ low 30s, with Labor in the high 20s, the Coalition around 20 or slightly lower, and the Greens flatlining on 12. Exactly what this means for the 2PP is pretty hard to predict, given that we have no real historical data to guide us for where ONP’s preferences might go, but Occam’s Razor might suggest that Labor would likely be re-elected on these figures, while One nation would hoover up well over half the existing Coalition seats.
The problem we have in interpreting current polling is that our political class don’t really understand either how polling works, or how our electoral system works.
With polling, it’s important to remember that a single mid-term poll is not particularly meaningful. The trend might tell us a few things, but given that the next election is at least well over a year away, and probably closer to 2 years away, what those who are answering to pollsters right now is of no great moment. Right now, the effective question people are answering is “what do you think of the government”? but by early 2028, the question starts to flip towards “which party do you want to see run the country for the next three years”? One Nation may well stay in pole position when that latter question becomes more apparent, but somehow I doubt it.
The electoral system is also a highly relevant consideration. Our parliament is not elected on raw vote shares – even if ONP does end up getting 30% of the vote, they aren’t going to win 30% of the seats. They’ll dominate in a number of rural and provincial areas, but almost certainly struggle in our diverse, younger, and more educated cities. My guess is that they will win 20-odd seats in the country (and maybe the odd outer suburban one), while Labor will win a comfortable parliamentary majority via our cities (which, remember, is where the vast majority of Australians live).
And of course, primary vote numbers are only part of the story. Our system, as we know, requires not only a decent enough primary vote (and remember that Labor won a huge majority off a fairly modest primary vote last year), but also a fair swag of preferences from other candidates, and I suspect that it will be in preferences that ONP may really have some difficulties. They will attract the enthusiastic support of their core base, of course, maybe up to 25% of the electorate, but the voters of other parties may well be just as motivated to keep them out. Let’s assume they get 25% of the primary vote come election day 2028 – there’s an entirely plausible scenario where their 2PP vote only goes up to the low 40s once every other party’s preferences play out. And a 2PP of, say, 57-43 would see Labor re-elected in an even bigger landslide than 2025.
goll says:
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 7:49 am
I’ve just enjoyed overnight the podcast presented by The Issue Ch7, with WB providing a commentary in regard to the current state of polling and the second coming of Ms Hanson and One Nation.
Has this blog commented regarding this commentary?
It was very good.
=========
Yes Goll, it was a good interview. Also liked the early history of blogging too.
Cropped up on the site yesterday at 1.50pm
Thomas Brian Mutter says:
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 10:29 am
The new Roy Morgan poll should be released sometime today.
=======
Should be just after 5PM TBM.
Drop it on the site for us!
New Victorian state polling figures should also turn up today/maybe tomorrow early AM via the Melbourne Age newspaper too.
Some Cartoons
Rowe
Golding
Mark David
Megan Herbert
Christopher Downes The Mercury
Mona’s Ark
Rod Emmerson NZ Herald
Speaking of Roy Morgan, they’ve dropped this on their site.
It is their monthly Consumer Confidence figure.
They rank the lowest levels of Consumer Confidence, going way back to the 1970’s, when I believe they were known as the Morgan-Gallup poll…..
“10 Lowest Monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence readings on record (1973 – 2026)”:
1.April 2026 (63.6)
2.May 2026 (66.0)
3.March 2026 (70.5)
4.December 1990 (71.3)
5.October 1990 (71.4)
6.June 1989 (72.8)
7.July 1989 (73.0)
8.November 1990 (73.1)
9.July 2023 (73.8)
10.June 2023 (73.9)
Link: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-in-mid-2026-is-lower-than-after-any-previous-federal-budget
Trump says deal with Iran was reached despite objections by Israeli PM Netanyahu, according to NY Times report.
I reckon old Chumpy and the yanks might have lost another Middle East war.
Details are scant but from what we know so far, the Strait of Hormuz will be controlled by Iran and Oman. There were no controls previously.
Iran will get frozen money back, money that was frozen in the west long before this conflict started.
There will be “limitations” on Iranian nuclear ambitions but who knows what will happen deep inside the mountain ranges where the centrifuges operate.
Further, old Chumpy might claim victory but the bloke holding the cards now is Netanyahu, and he is desperate to keep out of jail. His court cases will resume if the war stops and the powerful Israel lobby in Chumpistan will be pulling the strings that control the sycophants.
Exactly what this means for the 2PP is pretty hard to predict
——————————————-
Yep. And on how that relates to seats won and lost.
As peeps keep reminding me, this is a polling blog site. But what is polling if it isnt predictive (even point in time predictive)? What can William and pollsters do to translate these primaries and 2PP estimates into something more, given this very peculiar set of circumstances? We know seat polling isnt a great predictor, maybe that changes now. Maybe different polling questions need to be asked? Maybe more weight to respondent allocated prefs?
Stock markets in Australia/Asia boom and oil prices plunge as peace deal is announced.
frednk at 10.10am
Thanks for the link to the Malcolm Turnbul discussion. I found it to be very interesting.
It’s a pity we didn’t get more out of him while he was PM.
WB & others,
Just a bit of a follow up on that newish pollster -Agenda C Synesis – who dropped a launch poll in late May.
Link: https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/05/27/federal-polls-roy-morgan-and-essential-research-open-thread/comment-page-28/#comment-4726758
They’ve spruced up their website and details of the poll can be found here.
Link: https://agendac.com.au/research-service/the-federal-budget-fallout/
Going by their cross reference to the AFR “in the news” article, it would appear the poll period was 26-28 May. I don’t know if this pollster is APC aligned, and will leave it to you whether you wish to plug it into BT or not.
I know Resolve does not publish TPP figures. But what is the estimated TPP based on election pref flows or flows similar to other polls? 50-50?
Latest Ipsos Issues Monitor, dated 10-June.
Link: https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/issuesmonitor
Ranks the issues of concern to Australians, or in simple speak – what we’re all whingeing about to pollsters.
Hostilities will resume after a short break.. we appologise for this break in proceedings ….
NYT..
Mr. Trump also insisted that if Iran failed to reach a final nuclear accord with the United States — a process his aides say they expect will begin on Friday in Switzerland — he would restart military attacks on Tehran or make the United States “the guardian of the Middle East” in return for 20 percent of the region’s revenues.
In a 28-minute phone conversation that Mr. Trump initiated from the White House residence, and a brief follow-up call, the president asserted that his decision to attack Iran in late February, and his subsequent naval blockade of its ports after Tehran closed the strait, had remade the Middle East in America’s favor.
And another whingefest report, this time from JWS research (no primary figures)
Link: https://www.jwsresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/True-Issues-Special-Release-Federal-Budget-May-2026-Final.pdf
Pages 7 & 8 have the demographic breakdowns.
– NYT
Netanyahu was still bombing Beirut’s southern suburbs on Sunday; Trump’s peace deal is looking shaky, to say the least.
More from the NYT..
Over the past three months of negotiations, led by the president’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, the Iranians insisted they would never give up their right to enrich uranium under that treaty. Mr. Trump said they were still negotiating over whether Iran would suspend its enrichment for 20 years — Mr. Trump hinted he might settle for a 15-year suspension — but said Iran would be forever limited to enriching at low levels that “could never be used by the military.”
The Obama administration’s agreement had the same requirement, but Iran began enriching at far higher levels — including near-bomb-grade uranium enriched to 60 percent purity — AFTER!!!!!! Mr. Trump scrapped that deal in 2018.
HH at 11.06am.
“Stock markets in Australia/Asia boom.”
So now is the time for the sycophants to sell, and keep their ill-gotten gains handy, ready to buy back in when it becomes obvious that Chump’s deal is no better that the 40 odd victories he has previously announced.
I keep posting, so long as Pollsters ask voters their preferred PM the entire process is a waste of time as PM is NOT on the ballot paper at times election.. the entire polling industry only exists to undermine democracy.
I was thinking that if One Nation was ever going to win a metropolitan seat off of Labor, one of the most likely candidates would be Spence given the types of swings that occurred in the outer northern suburbs of Adelaide in the 2026 state election, and the fact that One Nation is usually stronger at the federal level, and Labor is usually weaker at that level as well.
– NYT
It’s fair to ask: what has the US & Israel achieved in their war with Iran?
I’d say diddly squat! Hostilities will almost inevitably resume.
Was Albo’s decision to spend a fortune to increase the fuel reserve another dumb decision ?
The surge in EV’s was always going to naturally increase the fuel reserve anyway.
I see BYD are now the major sponsor of Melbourne Victory, so it looks like the ICE vehicle is going the way of the horse and cart.
EV’s and hybrids are the norm now.
>>>>>>>>>>>
Could the same thing happen here with Clive and Pauline? Although I think One Nation is to the right of whatever Clive’s mob is called these days
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Clive is certainly pushing money into his yellow print ads, but I never hear him (or Babette) comment on current matters – they are just not in the news cycle or in my socials feeds.
How he makes space for his party I can’t see other than via frontal assault on Hanson calling her policies too soft and a sellout to MAGA.
(As per another post, he should invite those 1200 prospective ON candidates who miss out on a gig to become _his_ candidates…)
Does Clive even release media statements?
Apparently a peace deal has been done. Well done Trump if true.
The Bulwark (OK, I know it hates Trump) is very skeptical about the US-Iran peace “agreement”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Y_V5r9vtBY
Trump gets to claim victory on his birthday: Iran gets everything they want.
My grandsons have access to a bootlegged live feed of the “surreal” (the organisers’ word) Freedom-250 UFC fight at the White House, via the X Box.
There are uniformed troops in attendance everywhere, doing all kinds of drills and trick marching; honour guard duty; Marine military bands and choirs providing the music; a synchronised flyover by the Blue Eagles during the national anthem.
The stench of testosterone at the site must be awesome, as virtually nobody has any hair: it’s chrome domes as far as the eye can see. Fighters are robing up in the ante-room next to the Oval Office, surrounded by chintzy gold leaf wall decorations that would put Liberace, Saddam Hussein or any other tinpot dictator to shame. It’s Mar-a-Lago on the Potomac.
Fighters enter the ring from inside the White House, walking out through a corridor lined with servicemen; they exit through a door that has armed Marines in dress uniform ceremonially guarding it. The Marines snap to attention as each fighter exits the portal.
Flashing lights; crowds of young men inside the Octagon chanting “U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!“; thousands more on the adjacent lawn a-hootin’ and a-hollerin’; Donald Trump (wearing his trademark blue suit and red tie) trying to stay awake, next to Dana White (wearing a sports jacket, no tie, and white Nikes); menacing clouds beginning to assemble; the once gay ikon, “YMCA”, is playing; advertising logos are plastered over everybsquare inch of free space; thick necks, big pecs, bald heads; a sea of baseball hats; cheers and rebel yells as one fighter starts kicking the other that he has just knocked down; uniformed troops punching the air. Joe Rogan, shouting, conducting the post-match interviews. Live read ads for Crypto.com, RAM trucks, and TrumpCoins.com are peppered throughout. The President is using the occasion to line his own pockets by selling worthless trinkets with his face them.
We have been continually reminded of the great honour it is to be fighting at the White House, of how UFC is a symbol of American values and it’s struggle for FREEEEEEEdom… yet most of the fighters are Latino, either Mexican or from South and Central America: the exact types that are being told their nations are drug-soaked shitholes, full of murderers, whores, and wannabe illegal immigrants.
“Surreal” is the word the commentators use. “Tacky” trending to “Disgusting” are mine. The enshittification of America, however, is doing just fine.
As Tyson Fury puts it: “Freedom and the UFC, our warriors in and out of uniform, at the White House, on Donald Trump’s birthday! What an event!”
Cheers, Bludgers.
Daniel T says:
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 11:10 am
I know Resolve does not publish TPP figures. But what is the estimated TPP based on election pref flows or flows similar to other polls? 50-50?
===========
KB did a quick calculation last night. He got:
ALP 52.4 v LNP 47.6, & ALP 50.9 v O.N. 49.1
Link: https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/2066084229449236854?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
nadiasays:
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 10:37 am
Speaking of Roy Morgan, they’ve dropped this on their site.
It is their monthly Consumer Confidence figure.
___________________________
Funny how media outlets have been non-stop gloom and doom, yet somehow the government has been able to negotiate things like the Petrol Supply issue and keep things moving. Whether this is a combination of good luck, good management, good negotiation, who really knows? I suspect it is a case of a government quietly working the best they can and doing what they can do to improve things. The results speak for themselves in terms of fuel security over the past few months.
Maybe those who have been forecasting doom and gloom have also been lying to us about the changes to CGT and negative gearing and the potential negative impacts there too…
Good news that Trump’s and Netanyahu’s destructive war mongering is ceasing for the moment. Not sure how long this peace time lasts though.
There’s just too many religious extremists with power now sadly, so I’d advise people to save and try to insulate themselves from international price shocks and financial risk.
Rex:
No.
The latest Perun video looks at the recently admitted collapse of the French – German FCAS fighter program.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOmqyofNmrA
A lot of the issues are relevant to AUKUS. Maybe our leaders can find similar courage to admit defeat?
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 11:42 am
Was Albo’s decision to spend a fortune to increase the fuel reserve another dumb decision ?
The surge in EV’s was always going to naturally increase the fuel reserve anyway.
_______________
It was $3.2 billion to increase the Minimum Stockholding Obligation to 50 days and is probably required, given:
1. You can’t trust Trump to act rationally or the Iranians to keep the SoH open.
2. It’s going to take a while to melt the ICE fleet. Incidentally, Hannah Ritchie created this simple model to explore this:
https://hannahritchie.github.io/ev-fleet-transition/
GrannyAnny says:
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 11:09 am
frednk at 10.10am
Thanks for the link to the Malcolm Turnbul discussion. I found it to be very interesting.
It’s a pity we didn’t get more out of him while he was PM.
Thanks.
Been thinking about it. The climate wars might of got MT, but in the end they got the Liberal party.
Fuck Russia for this:
“Kyiv’s historic Pechersk Lavra burns as Russia rains ballistic missiles on capital”
http://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-june-14-2026/
Anyone who thinks Putin’s Russia is some sort of ‘defender of Christianity’ is either an idiot or evil.
“Funny how media outlets have been non-stop gloom and doom….”
======
Yes. Unfortunately that is what sells papers, generates clicks and comments and boosts revenue
Mundane stuff such as;
* The PM has appointed some new staff to the public sector, or
* Sen Wong has signed an international MOU, or
* Chris Bowen has arranged extra fuel supplies…
Just doesn’t cut it for the media. Instead we have a frenzy over 3 word slogans and polls flying around everywhere.
I’m getting the feeling that the pollsters are trying to outdo each other by producing the highest O.N. primary, so that the newspapers can then have another round of clicks, comments and more advertising revenue for their websites.
These sorts of images belong in history books about WW2 bombing campaigns from over 80 years ago, not current news reports:
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-june-14-2026/
SL says:
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 12:04 pm
…
https://hannahritchie.github.io/ev-fleet-transition/
Nice model.
At some point before 100% it is going t be hard to find petrol. Most ice cars will be registered under club plates and it will be clubs that secure supply, if it is possible.
Bushfire Bill says:
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 11:47 am
My grandsons have access to a bootlegged live feed of the “surreal” (the organisers’ word) Freedom-250 UFC fight at the White House, via the X Box.
.
.
.
All on the night the USA admits defeat int he middle east and Russia bombs buildings from the middles ages.
Resolve poll for Victoria (State)
L/NP: 26% (-3)
Labor: 26% (-1)
One Nation: 24% (+3)
Green: 12% (+2)
Independent: 5% (-2)
Other: 7% (+1)
Preferred Premier: Unchanged (Jess Wilson 39%, Jacinta Allan 20%)
I dunno, but Labor retains Govt on those numbers perhaps.
Labor should stay the course with Jacinta I reckon.
“Regardless of how you intend to vote at the next Victorian state election, do you think Jacinta Allan and Labor deserve a fourth term in government?”
Total: 25% Yes, 61% No
Labor Voters: 52% Yes, 31% No
Coalition Voters: 16% Yes, 79% No
Greens Voters: 50% Yes, 26% No
One Nation Voters: 4% Yes, 88% No
“And do you think that Jess Wilson and the Liberal opposition are capable of governing the state effectively?”
Total: 46% Yes, 35% No
Labor Voters: 30% Yes, 51% No
Coalition Voters: 82% Yes, 13% No
Greens Voters: 25% Yes, 46% No
One Nation Voters: 43% Yes, 40% No
“And do you think that Jess Wilson and the Liberal opposition are capable of governing the state effectively
_______________________
They couldn’t do any worse.
We might even get our potholes fixed.
Kirsdarke, Monday, June 15, 2026 at 12:26 pm:
Back of the envelope: this looks like a Lab-LNP TPP of about 48.5-51.5 (better for Labor if Ind/Oth breaks for them better than 50/50).
Rex – you think Allan is more competitive from being behind the LNP by 48.5-51.5 five months out from the election, than Albo is from a from being ahead of the LNP by 51.5-48.5 nearly two years out from his?
I reckon around 40% of ON voters in Victoria would break for Labor on 2nd preference.
@Rex Douglas
I don’t think so, One Nation voters hate Labor more than Coalition voters do according to the poll.
Rex Douglas:
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 12:30 pm
Agree. I’m not sure that anyone else replacing her would do any better. After 12 years in power, I think it boils down to an “It’s Time” factor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H905M1E0_l4