The monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers joins most others in showing One Nation leading on the primary vote in its latest monthly result, with a five-point surge placing them at 29%. Labor is down one to 28%, the Coalition are down three to 20% (16% among women, equal with the Greens), and the Greens are steady on 12%.
Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up one to 35%, while his poor and very poor rating is down one to 55%. Angus Taylor is respectively up one to 38% and up three to 32%. This pollster has been unusual in having Angus Taylor leading Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister and does so again now, though the margin has narrowed from 33-30 to 32-31. A three-way preferred prime minister question, asked for the first time, suggests most of those favouring Taylor over Albanese in fact prefer Pauline Hanson to either: she is at 33% compared with 29% for Albanese and 16% for Taylor.
The poll again inquired about the three main contentious budget measures, finding 33% in favour of the negative gearing changes (down two on last month) with 26% opposed (up five); 31% in favour of the capital gains tax measures (down five) and 31% opposed (up 10); and 29% in favour of the changes to taxing of family trusts (down five) and 34% opposed (up 11). The poll was conducted Monday to Saturday from a sample of 1801.
My web host is doing server maintenance, so if there are any issues with the site, that will be the reason. Though it does seem to be behaving itself now.
One nation 29% primary vote is taking primary votes off the federal lib/nats combined primary votes, Federal Lib/nats currently hold 41 seats , that is what one nation is competing with .
Similarity with opinion polls , before 2025 federal election
Before the 2025 federal election
with no electoral or other evidence
The federal lib/nats were supposed to be getting the swing from Labor primary vote,
Before the 2028 federal election
One Nation is supposed to be getting the swing from Labor primary vote,
Before the 2025 federal election
The federal lib/nats combined primary vote was stuck around 36/37% ,
Federal Labor primary vote stuck under 30%
Before the 2028 federal election
one nation primary vote is stuck around 29/30%.
Federal Labor primary vote stuck under 30%
Before the 2025 federal election
The propaganda media units were talking up federal lib/nats and Peter Dutton as the federal government and Prime minister
Before the 2028 federal election
The propaganda media units talking up One Nation and Pauline Hanson as the federal government and Prime minister
Orange Man is rapidly turning into The Tired Lame Duck in Command.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/an-unhappy-birthday-for-trump-his-iran-deal-and-presidency-on-the-brink-20260614-p606ld.html
If he can’t have deal Iran on his birthday then always the perennial favourite of ending the Ukraine invasion. Yawn.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/14/trump-putin-call-ukraine-russia-iran-war
Well I’ll put my foot in the water and say that I find these results highly disturbing.
Scott, I have absolutely no idea what on earth you are going on about. The One Nation vote is not “stuck” at 29-30 per cent or at any other level. It is continuing to rise and dog only knows where that trend is going to end up.
On a more positive note: what a wonderful win by the Socceroos yesterday. I first saw them play in 1974 at the Sydney Sports Ground (later the Football Stadium). I think it was against Iran, but it might have been Iraq (I think we might have had to play both teams on our way to the World Cup finals in Germany).
Rale Rasic was the coach and Johnny Warren was captain. We played much the same style of game as we played yesterday: disciplined and desperate defence against teams with superior foot skills, looking for opportunities to score from corners and free kicks.
What was amazing yesterday was the quality of our counter attack. In more than a half century of watching, I’ve never seen an Australian team look so dangerous coming out of defence. Turkiye were a highly-skilled team. If we can beat them, we can beat some of the other fancied teams. Probably not France or Brazil, but we could potentially upset others.
Omar Comin’:
Well, what did he say?
Scott, I can usually follow what you say quite well, even if I don’t agree with it. If all you’re saying is that we can’t know what the ON vote truly is going to be in 2028 until we have “electoral evidence”, then fine: although that truth is somewhat in the category of the bleeding obvious.
But I reckon that, like the Reform vote in Britain, the ON vote could end up being higher than anyone could imagine. The Coalition vote is in freefall and ON will get the preferences of most of the rusted-on Coalition voters.
Of course, I’m hoping that the wheels will come off the ON bus long before the next election. But that’s a surmise, not something that can be gleaned from the polling data at the moment.
I wish the Greens were on 20 William but alas, they are steady on 12
Although it’s impresseive they are equal with the LNP with female voters at 16. Women clearly more intelligent. Although their increased support for One Nation is a worry
Has Netanyahu screwed up the MOU yet again? Something has to give soon
It’ll be interesting to see what comes up in the short inquiry into the tax changes this week. Hopefully the government only makes minor tweaks, or adopts more aggressive changes, and doesn’t cave
Yeah sorry mb he did say that, my bad
Not quite the same thing but it looks like Restore Britain could hurt Reforms chances from the right, starting in the Makerfield by-election this week
Could the same thing happen here with Clive and Pauline? Although I think One Nation is to the right of whatever Clive’s mob is called these days
LNP looks to be in a death spiral and doing deals with One Nation will just speed up their demise imo
While they’re still a “major” party in parliament they’re a minor party in the polling now with One Nation heading towards becoming the official Opposition
Peace?
https://x.com/CMShehbaz/status/2066268332832194810
Let’s hope so SL
Although X is toxic trash so there’s no way I’m clicking on that link
From a source on the Fediverse
“Peace deal reached between the US and Iran. “Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland.” – Shehbaz Sharif, prime minister of Pakistan”
Meha baba
one nation primary vote has been up and down , consistently 20-30%, have not been consistent for months over 30%
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/let-s-not-blow-it-trump-calls-for-restraint-after-israel-strikes-beirut-20260615-p606qc.html
Axios pipped at the post by the Pakistani PM.
I’ve just enjoyed overnight the podcast presented by The Issue Ch7, with WB providing a commentary in regard to the current state of polling and the second coming of Ms Hanson and One Nation.
Has this blog commented regarding this commentary?
It was very good.
Looks like Trump wanted to make an announcement this weekend and he has managed to get it done
Nice to start the week with positive news, hopefully it holds
Noting he is just fixing what he broke
I used to be polled semi regularly, especially during elections.
I have not been polled since 2022. Neither has my wife, who usually hands her phone over to me.
I must be in an irrelevant area, which is odd, because I live in one of those seats supposedly flipping ON.
Just saying.
Iran still hasn’t confirmed however, so it still could be fake news.
Hot off from the NYT..
But a lingering question is the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, over which neither country has shown much willingness to compromise. During the 60-day period, both sides have committed to holding detailed negotiations over the program, and over the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran.
Lebanon is another stumbling block. Iran wanted any broader peace settlement to force Israel to end its attacks targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group, which have killed more than 3,500 people, and for the Israeli military to withdraw from Lebanese territory.
Israel, which was not directly involved in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, has said it would continue to attack if Hezbollah attacked its territory.
This is another peace deal that isn’t a peace deal.. leave it to Bibi
gollsays:
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 7:49 am
I’ve just enjoyed overnight the podcast presented by The Issue Ch7, with WB providing a commentary in regard to the current state of polling and the second coming of Ms Hanson and One Nation.
Has this blog commented regarding this commentary?
It was very good.
_______________________
A little bit of commentary. I need to go back and have a good look at it. Only watched the 1st minute or so.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/14/world/iran-war-trump-us/e1f012b7-89e7-50d8-b3c0-d995a5a9aacf?smid=url-share
LOL
meher baba says:
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 6:58 am
Well I’ll put my foot in the water and say that I find these results highly disturbing.
——————————————————-
I have to agree. It is disturbing so many people in Australia still support labor and the greens despite all the regressive policies they have introduced. We both can only hope a new hope emerges that can retreat from the current path and put Australia on the right track.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jun/14/iran-us-middle-east-crisis-donald-trump-peace-deal-strait-hormuz-open-pakistan-latest-news-updates
Morning all. Pakistan has confirmed that there is an Iran USA peace deal now.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/14/iran-war-live-trump-says-deal-to-be-signed-today-as-tehran-urges-caution
Would be good if media and politicians talked about “agreements” rather than “deals”.
On the supposed “complete peace deal”, I’ll believe it when I see both sides sitting down together and signing the documents. Netanyahu, on the other hand, may well try and find some way to derail the process to keep the whole thing bubbling over to drag Donnie right back into the mire.
goll agreed with what you said, it was very good.
William’s reflections on the rise and fall of ‘blogging’ were quite amusing. William, it’s not too late to call in the SEO experts, spam the shit out of everyone and put a rocket under this thing!
World News & Politics Patrol:
Iran’s deputy foreign minister said the immediate and permanent end of the war and military operations on multiple fronts, including Lebanon, will be announced starting tonight: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202606149309
Trump says deal reached with Iran and he has authorized that naval blockade leave Strait of Hormuz: https://www.mlive.com/news/2026/06/trump-says-deal-reached-with-iran-and-he-has-authorized-that-naval-blockade-leave-strait-of-hormuz.html
Iran says draft US deal includes oil sanctions waiver, nuclear limits and asset release: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-deal-includes-oil-sanctions-waiver-nuclear-limits-asset-2026-06-14/
Iran Slams US After Israel Attacks Lebanon, Says “No Point” In Peace Talks: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-slams-us-after-israel-attacks-lebanon-says-no-point-in-peace-talks-11635879/amp/1
Trump tells Putin he is ready to help end Ukraine conflict, Kremlin adviser says: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-tells-putin-phone-call-that-ending-ukraine-conflict-is-vital-he-can-help-2026-06-14/
Nike Launches Sneaker Line With Russian Designer Who Backed Crimea Annexation: https://united24media.com/world/nike-launches-sneaker-line-with-russian-designer-who-backed-crimea-annexation-19715
Kentucky U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell was admitted to a hospital Sunday morning: https://www.wdrb.com/news/politics/kentucky-u-s-sen-mitch-mcconnell-hospitalized-sunday-morning/article_af3d9bce-0e33-4031-87ea-33a1317a0403.html
Ted Cruz tried to insult James Talarico’s masculinity. It backfired immediately: https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/06/ted-cruz-tried-to-insult-james-talaricos-masculinity-it-backfired-immediately/
Christian right calls James Talarico “demonic” — for quoting Jesus: https://www.salon.com/2026/06/14/christian-right-calls-james-talarico-demonic-for-quoting-jesus/
Democrats Vow ‘Day One’ Epstein Hearings if They Flip House: https://www.notus.org/house/democrats-vow-day-one-epstein-hearings-if-they-flip-house
A woman’s hypothermia death in Pittsburgh after her release from ICE custody is ruled a homicide: https://apnews.com/article/haiti-woman-homicide-ice-e31e7109eba053b41f6b0319640df042
Israeli firm BlackCore suspected of meddling in New York and Scotland votes, France says: https://www.reuters.com/world/israeli-firm-blackcore-also-suspected-meddling-nyc-scotland-votes-french-2026-06-11/
Swiss voters reject proposal to cap population at 10 million: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/14/switzerland-referendum-population-cap-svp
And I wonder where Israel stands with this agreement.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jun/14/iran-us-middle-east-crisis-donald-trump-peace-deal-strait-hormuz-open-pakistan-latest-news-updates
Stephen Koukoulas: Oil down to US$83.80 (Brent) – looks like the inflation issues were transitory.
RBA reacting to oil looks to be another misstep.
At least one of those 2026 hikes needs to be reversed in the near term
“The right track” will probably be found from the list of songs from the indie rock band “The Tracks”.
“Strange Moments” or “Hanging On” perhaps ?
To the disappointment of some, it looks like Australia will miss the chance to get directly involved in attacking and invading Iran.
Nevertheless, we will be one of the few to come out of this sorry affair with improved diplomatic standing due to our support of the Muslim gulf countries.
Hopefully Trump ignores Iran declaring victory and Iran ignores Trump doing it the same. It’s almost landed as a draw, which seems appropriate give the World Cup is on. Point of interest, of the 10 games played so far 4 have been draws.
Anyways, I hope it all works out
Interesting result in Switzerland with the referendum on capping the population at 10 million being rejected
Barnaby Joyce on RN Breakfast this morning careful in saying it just polls and wanting to avoid hubris
94…
Full court press on the tax changes this week, hopefully the Government’s defense holds up as well as the Socceroos one yesterday
Of to work, enjoy your day All
With the CGT proposals – can anyone explain what is the reason for different treatment of a $5m company becoming a $10m company over say 10 years and a $0 start up becoming a $5m company after 10 years?
Following on from the misinformation yesterday from bludgers suggesting Victoria is getting more funding from the federal govt at the expense of other states.
.
The reality is that Victoria has been dudded for years.
This is from report in December, 2025.
————-
The Review highlights that Victoria’s share of Commonwealth Government funding relative to its population share has been consistently below that of other large states.
Victoria has received $31 billion less than its population share since the GST was introduced and Victoria has received $9.4 billion less than its population share in infrastructure funding over the past 10 years.
The Victorian Government will continue to advocate for better funding for Victoria, and work with the Commonwealth to find ways to address this imbalance.
https://www.vic.gov.au/ensuring-public-sector-focused-what-matters-most/executive-summary
“Trump says deal reached with Iran and he has authorized that naval blockade leave Strait of Hormuz”
Jaeger
That gave me a good laugh!
One Nation has received about 1200 applications for potential political candidates in the Victorian election including “doctors and lawyers”, according to the party’s first endorsed candidate to run in the state’s lower house, Darren Hercus.
One Nation is aiming to run up to 100 candidates across both houses in the November 28 election as leader Pauline Hanson looks to capitalise on strong polling results, after Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell made history in 2022 by becoming the party’s first member in the Victorian parliament’s upper house.
https://archive.is/xa1in#selection-1673.0-1681.127
I’m looking forward to the ‘fruitful, fair and frank’ discussions between the representatives of the women who are reputedly going over to Hanson’s party when they sit down* in a room with representatives if the aggrieved men’s groups that Hanson has courted in the past.
* which is going to assume that there is any such co-operative policy making in ON, lol.
“doctors and lawyers”
The ones that have been ‘struck-off’ by their professions I assume.
Because you are not taxed for the initial investment plus inflation. A theoretical company that cost you $0 to startup will always have it’s full amount taxed when sold. A company that cost you $10mill to startup would, over time, have that $10mill base inflate and end up with you being taxed less
Under the old system they both were taxed on $5mill. Under the new system the former will always be taxed at the $10mill and the later could in theory eventually be taxed at something as low as $0 if it performed worse than inflation
Joyce speaks with a forked tongue:
– SMH
Antony Green gives a thorough dissection of faulty preference assumptions for One Nation in a recent Fin Review article. He refers to recent actual preference flows in Farrar and the SA State election.
https://antonygreen.com.au/the-financial-reviews-inaccurate-preference-analysis/
https://yapms.com/app/aus/wa/2025067/blank?m=27xgcw3wrduqts9
I already posted this in the Western Australia thread, but this is what my current prediction for the state election looks like taking into account recent polling.
Where are we right now?? Seems to me from different media sources that there is actually an MOU style of document that the US and Iran have agreed to sign. Both sides are spinning the news frantically and putting it out there it means what THEY want it to mean.
But …. its only an agreement to negotiate an agreement. Needs both sides to stop shooting, even if Israel and Hezbolla throw the occasional bombs at each other in the early stages.
Particularly Israel. They will have much firmer control of the IDF than Iran will of Hezbolla.
And, Trump can at least be seen to TRY to compel the Israelis to stop. Cut off all military aid if the Israelis refuse to a cease fire in place now, and continue that if they wont withdraw from Lebanon or do whatever it takes to facilitate a Gulf peace agreement that can be endorsed by the UN.
Will be VERY interesting to see what diplomatic relations are going to look like over the next couple of years?? I’d say its the Gulf States that are going to end up parting with a LOT of $ for reconstruction in Iran IF this gets turned into a lasting peace deal.
All this could work, stop the gulf War and get oil and fertilizer flowing. At this point I think the only ones who may stand to gain anything from a continuation is Israel, but I also think their strategy is now past its use by date. People have largely cottoned onto the fact that Israel does not really face serious external threats, but IS itself the threat in the ME.
can anyone explain why Taylor leads Albanese on better PM stakes but drops like a ton of brick when Hanson is introduced? Doesn’t that look intriguing to say the least?
@ Socrates 932am
Thanks for the link,Soc, but my browser wont let me open it. Could you provide a brief round- up of what Antony Green had to say regarding preferences for ON?
Thanks
Gettysburg.
A frank discussion of being prime minister by M Turnbull.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npvjnLserBY
Gettysburg
It is a long article with useful diagrams and tables. I will post selected intro and concluding paragraphs only.
Having scrutineered myself at the Federal and SA elections, I would agree with Antony. In my Sturt booth, Labor got 85% of Green preferences. The AFR is just wrong.
Ven says:
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 9:50 am
WB: This pollster has been unusual in having Angus Taylor leading Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister and does so again now, though the margin has narrowed from 33-30 to 32-31. A three-way preferred prime minister question, asked for the first time, suggests most of those favouring Taylor over Albanese in fact prefer Pauline Hanson to either: she is at 33% compared with 29% for Albanese and 16% for Taylor.
can anyone explain why Taylor leads Albanese on better PM stakes but drops like a ton of brick when Hanson is introduced? Doesn’t that look intriguing to say the least?
============
That would be normal.
If the pollster is asking voters for a binary choice between Taylor & Albo & excluding Hanson, then the Hanson crowd will go for Taylor.
When you introduce her into the mix, that vote goes back to her.