We can expect quite a bit in the way of state polling over the coming weeks, with today’s Freshwater Strategy result for Victoria to be joined soon by another result for the state from Resolve Strategic, and DemosAU/Premier National promising a round of state polling as per its quarterly schedule. The first of the latter is a result for Queensland that has One Nation gaining three points to 24%, which comes at the expense of Labor, down three to 25%, rather than the Liberal National Party, steady on 34%. The Greens are likewise steady on 10%. A conventional two-party preferred result has the LNP leading Labor 58-42, out from 56-44 in the last poll and from 53.8-46.2 at the October 2024 election. David Crisafulli holds a 47-30 lead over Steven Miles on preferred premier, out from 43-32. The poll was conducted May 27 to June 3 from a sample of 1033. Voting intention breakdowns and further results on state direction and issue salience are available in the full report.
Further Queensland electoral news:
• The final result of the May 16 Stafford by-election was a 1.4% winning margin for Luke Richmond, who retained the seat against a 3.8% swing. Liberal National Party candidate Fiona Hammond outpolled Richmond 40.3% to 30.8% on first preferences, but in the absence of One Nation the minor party and independent vote was overwhelmingly left-wing, with preferences flowing accordingly.
• The Queensland Redistribution Commission will release its final determination of the redistribution of state electoral boundaries in “mid-2026”. With the Ipswich region seat of Jordan to be divided between the new seats of Springfield and Greenbank, the Courier-Mail’s George Street Beat column reported on a push within the Left to force Charis Mullen, the Right-aligned member for Jordan, to run for the less safe seat of Greenbank so as to make Springfield available to Ipswich councillor Pye Augustine.
• The Sunday Mail reports expectations that LNP members John-Paul Langbroek (Surfers Paradise), Ros Bates (Mudgeeraba) and Fiona Simpson (Maroochydore) will retire at the next election.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Queensland state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Not much discussion of this one, I’m guessing because the election is so far away
It was discussed on the main thread a bit as well
Unless the LNP does something really stupid I can’t see them being voted out in the lead up to Olympics. Imagine if One Nation was elected to run them lol
If there is one bright side for Labor in this poll is One Nation polls strongest in the regions while most of Labor’s seats are in the cities (Brisbane). But the LNP are likely to make inroads in Brisbane based on this poll and One Nation still can be a threat to Labor in the Brisbane outer surburbs and Labor strongholds in Ipswich.
The LNP will push hard in Brisbane to counter likely losses from One Nation in the regions. Over 2 years to the next Queensland state election though so anything can happen.
With all the corruption with the labor party coming out from the CFMEU inquiry Labor may not hold power in Qld for a long time to come.
“Office of Industrial Relations executive Andrea Fox, at times breaking into tears, said that after the 2018 incident with then CFMEU state secretary Michael Ravbar, she warned female colleagues not to meet with him alone.”
It’s okay, her tears say more than real evidence ever could.
Regardless of statewide polls, you can’t discount a repeat of the Beattie win thanks to One Nation destroying the Borbridge government. It would only take a slight recovery of Labor vote in the south east and One Nation taking regional seats.
These numbers, even if there is a “slight recovery of the Labor vote” do not show any possibility of 1998 type result. In 1998, Labor won more than 38% of the primary vote. Here, it is more than 15 points behind that with the LNP comfortably ahead.
There is, however, some prospect of the LNP being reduced to a minority government. ON may well do creditably in some regional areas and win some of those seats off the LNP. If that occurs, we might end up with an LNP Govt supported by ON.
the fallout from budget goes on, state by state
i thought govt was generally competent – how could it get the budget so wrong. did it underestimate ON, from complacency? why allow social hysteria? why give a leg up to those cowboys. budget was too much at once – didn’t they learn from tax election. they had two years to deliver these measures.
LNP do have a long history of screwing up at election time, though. The number of LNP supporters that crowed when Campbell Newman won 78 seats. Annastacia Palaszczuk said LNP stalwart Jeff Seeney told her that Labor would be out of government for at least 15 years. Never underestimate the Labor machine at Peel st. They know how to win state elections, and there will be some in the LNP aware of that, despite the polling at the moment.
Definitely time for Miles to step down. He’s had his time, and the party has shown him far more loyalty than most would to a former premier who led them into opposition.
I’m increasing leaning towards Meghan Scanlon as my preferred choice for his replacement. I had reservations in the past on account of her age, but – unlike, say, Kirkup or Hurn or Wilson – she also boasts several terms worth of parliamentary and ministerial experience, holds what by all rights should be a safe LNP seat, and has a certain fierceness about her that an effective opposition leader generally needs in Queensland.
Shannon Fentiman and Cameron Dick could both do well under the right circumstances, but I don’t think the present zeitgeist favours them. Fentiman can come across a bit too nice and fluffy and stereotypical “woke urban left”, while Dick is just too boring.
I’m increasing leaning towards Meghan Scanlon as my preferred choice for his replacement.
@Asha
Cameron Dick and Shannon Fentiman are going to hold their seats, though and can campaign around the state. I wouldn’t think that about Meghan Scanlon in Gaven, unless Labor can find her a safer seat. LNP had to go through two elections in 2012 and 2015, with the media speculating whether Campbell Newman was going to win his seat of Ashgrove. I think it’s a situation Labor would be wise to avoid with Scanlon based in Gaven.
The LNP ( or as they prefer to be called The New Queensland Government) are in the ascendancy in Queensland. I believe they are well positioned to keep One Nation at bay. The LNP are well organised and showing skill in using all the tools at their disposal including Queensland Tax Payers money for a never ending advertising campaign about how good they are. As the Courier Mail surprisingly recently pointed out they might be saying how good they are but some election promises are not being realised- including around youth crime. They are also using taxpayer money to advertise that the Australian government is to blame for aged care residents clogging up our hospitals. Amongst all of this hubris the Labor Party, other than in Brisbane City, is as dead as a dodo. As you travel north of Brisbane the support for Labor is abysmal. The recent Hinchinbrook by election saw Labor gain 7% of the primary vote. This in a seat comprising rural voters but also many regional voters in Townsville’s northern suburbs. This primary vote is incredibly poor. Townsville itself has deserted Labor as have Queensland’s other regional cities apart from Cairns. State Labor definitely needs a reset and Stephen Miles must realise his time is up. Labor in Queensland is now a Brisbane centric party with their organisation falling apart outside those areas. By contrast the LNP is highly organised with strong membership right across the state. David Crisafulli is performing strongly and his media experience is used to great effect. He has his bully boys ( Bleije and Janetske) to keep Labor and the likes of ON on the back foot. The “New Queensland Government “ is using a very good playbook and I believe their approach to delivering the Brisbane Olympics will give them an opportunity to win more Brisbane seats off Labor. There are also implications for Federal Labor seats in Queensland. I really believe unlike the rest of Australia, Queensland is set to become an LNP stronghold. Labor’s powerbrokers in Queensland have really stuffed up including their baffling decision to push Anastascia P from the premiership. That is when the rot started to set in. The current CFMEU inquiry will deliver more bad news for Labor. Labor supporters at the Federal level will need to hope NSW and Victoria can hold up as it is all further downhill for Labor in Queensland. Look out for numerous LNP v ON contests all over Queensland except for Brisbane’s inner suburbs which will remain Labor v Liberal for now. For conservatives there are valuable lessons for success playing out in Queensland. Crisafulli, if he can contain the nasty side of his team, will be more successful than Peter Malinauskis in the near future. It’s all Blue not Orange and certainly not red here in sunny Queensland.
Rossco please learn to use the enter key.
Its over two years to the next Queensland election so way too early for predictions although in the absence of sacking 14 000 public servants the LNP probably gets re-elected unless the Olympic build really goes bad. It helps them that Labor is in power federally as Queensland does seem to like to elect the opposite at a State level. A move on Labor leader might depend on polling as why burn through a potential future Premier if the election is to be lost anyway. That Queensland will be permanently blue I consider extremely unlikely looking at the history of the last 30 years.
Just one thing, the idea that the blame aged care issues for hospital bed blockage is not an LNP political thing. Ministers Miles, D’Ath and Fentiman were also constant on this. Queensland Health Board Chairs and Chief Executives also constantly stated this throughout the Labor term. And frankly it’s factual . Major hospitals have significant beds taken up by patients who need an aged care placement. They cannot return home safely. Each bed taken up t
blocks other patients and there is a flow on effect. You can’t transfer patients into acute care from the emergency department which in turn blocks another patient being triaged into an emergency bed.
Now if an aged care person takes up that initial bed for weeks, that can be hundreds of patients blocked in that time.
It’s a huge issue.
I don’t blame blue or red for this, aged care beds have been an issue for decades. They have never been enough aged care beds to meet what the Government thinks we need, and I would argument the official number is way under what we actually need.
No one has bothered to seriously tackle it.
Instead it’s just a cause for constant state vs federal blame games.
The full report gives the breakdown of primary votes in Brisbane as 38% LNP, 29% ALP, 14% ONP, 16% GRN, 3% OTH. This suggests the Queensland LNP is holding up in Brisbane, especially compared to the rest of the state (where its primary vote is only 34%).
Along with the Queensland LNP’s strong result in the recent Stafford by-election, this suggests the LNP would win seats off Labor in Brisbane if an election were held today, whereas One Nation is threatening the LNP in the rest of the state. Labor preferences may save the LNP in many regional seats if the primary vote split is 34% LNP to 32% ONP in regional areas as reported in this poll.
Totally agree Disraeli is My Guy. I heard an Aged Care Advocate last week begging for an all level of government, bipartisan approach to resolving our Aged Care issues including the hospital bed issue. Given the new Queensland Government advertisement that may be a way off. It certainly is an issue requiring less politics and more compassion and resolve . Here’s hoping someone is listening.
Sorry for my naivety Ghost of Whitlam but where do I find out more about the Enter key you want me to use?
“There are also implications for Federal Labor seats in Queensland. I really believe unlike the rest of Australia, Queensland is set to become an LNP stronghold. Labor’s powerbrokers in Queensland have really stuffed up including their baffling decision to push Anastascia P from the premiership. That is when the rot started to set in. The current CFMEU inquiry will deliver more bad news for Labor. Labor supporters at the Federal level will need to hope NSW and Victoria can hold up as it is all further downhill for Labor in Queensland.”
@Rossco
The federal poll by RedBridge Group and Accent Research projects a devastating wipeout for the LNP in Queensland, with the Coalition predicted to win zero seats in the state from the surge of One Nation.
If you want to suggest the state LNP are travelling well judging from the DemosAU poll results. That’s fine. But just don’t simply blend state and federal together without having polling to back it up.
I would be more worried federally if I was the LNP rather then Labor judging by the polling.
Hi Political Nightwatchman
I take on board your argument but I’d bet my house on the LNP retaining Herbert and Dawson so that would be two in the bank. Townsville and Mackay are now the LNP heartland of the LNP heartland that is Queensland minus Brisbane.