The weekly Roy Morgan series joins Newspoll, YouGov, RedBridge Group and DemosAU in having One Nation leading on the primary vote, surging two-and-a-half points to 29.5%, with Labor down a point to 26% and the Coalition down two-and-a-half to 17.5%. The latter result is half-a-point off the record worst poll result the Coalition recorded in a RedBridge Group poll in March, and puts them barely ahead of the Greens, up two to 15.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1631. A Labor-versus-One Nation two-party result has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 – I’m unclear if this is respondent-allocated or based on speculative estimates. Conventional two-party results have Labor leading the Coalition 56-44 on respondent-allocated (out from 55.5-44.5) and 54-46 using previous election preference flows (out from 53.5-46.5).
The Australian Electoral Commission has published finalised results from the Farrer by-election, so we now have the preference distribution and preference-flow-by-candidate data. The latter reveals that Liberal preferences recorded a surprisingly evenly 59.0-41.0 split in favour of One Nation winner David Farley over independent Michelle Milthorpe, compared with 69.1-30.9 among Nationals voters. The split among Greens voters was fully 91.8-8.2 in favour of Milthorpe.
Rossmcg I generally think people are paranoid over one nation like they think it’s going to sweep the nation which doesn’t make sense because like with will like are the two years away from an election in stuff can change I don’t know why people think that Anthony needs to leave
Rossmcg @ #750 Sunday, June 14th, 2026 – 9:33 pm
Nah – just desperation from the Spivs and their owners. The dogs bark and the Canavan moves on?
QR
Albo is not going anywhere. With a massive majority of 94 seats, I think he would have to be at least 55-45 behind the Liberal One Party for at least 6 months continuously. The Libs continued on with over 30 consecutive losses on Newspoll for 2 PMs before they decided to change leader.
steve davis yeah but that’s what I kept saying to people one Nations probably taking more off the coalition than labour that’s why they need to stay the course also I think Pauline’s playing a really dangerous game with this ditch the liar there’s a point which people don’t care about it like domestic should be done before election not nearly two years out sorry for the late reply
The issue is whether Chalmers could do as well as Albo and that’s obviously debatable. I wouldn’t blame Albo for going around again, but there’s also a good argument for renewal and Chalmers does present very well. In a ten second sound bite he explained things ten times as clearly as Albo did in relation to the tax changes.
Albo should think about going out on top and hopefully take the hits for not taking the tax changes to an election.
I thought Dutton will usher cookers government but I never thought in my wildest dreams it will be done by Hanson
Victoria says:
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 7:31 pm
…
Victoria consistently receives the lowest per capita funding from the Australian Federal Government. Due to the nation’s horizontal fiscal equalisation policies, it contributes more in tax revenue per person than it receives back in federal transfers, making it the largest long-term net subsidiser of the “poorer” states.
..
Infrastructure Funding: Over the past decade, Victoria has received roughly half its fair share of federal infrastructure funding in per capita terms. If funding were strictly commensurate with its population (which sits at roughly 25.8% of the nation), the state would receive an estimated additional $3.5 billion over five years.
..
GST Distribution: Historically and recently, Victoria has received less than its exact population share of Commonwealth grants. There is a consensus that Victoria’s extensive debt is largely compounded by the need to self-fund large-scale projects like the Metro Tunnel and Suburban Rail Loop without the level of federal backing seen in states like NSW.
Now the question is, why isn’t the Age, the Herald sun and the local ABC not complaining about this, instead it’s wall to wall CFMEU, a union Labor got de-registered. The Liberal couldn’t even get them to stop flying their flags on the cranes.
For their incompetence the Victorian state Liberals should hold hang their heads in shame.
Ven I think you might want to calm down we’re not at that point
The West Australian report on DemosAU state poll. ALP 33 (-3), LIB 23 (+2), NAT 2 (-2), ON 18 (+1). TPP: ALP 53-47, in from 57-43. Changes since last poll in February.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/poll-relief-for-labor-and-liberals-in-wa-but-pauline-hansons-one-nation-is-coming-for-them-c-22425778?fbclid=IwY2xjawSbgG9leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETJoNzRkTHdwYjFlMmJzRWFGc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHgPfJgD08iPv3vW1kVdFnZe5dJ_uXNdAaZazmJvMsuhq0n4ksErfXGafYWmr_aem_urhVxGnUI7yB23CRNBKlng
What US and UK have shown us is that brown and black people can be portrayed as monsters by white politicians like Trump and Farage to stoke the inner fires of prejudice and racism of majority voters to win elections.
I thought Dutton will succeed in that endeavour in 2025 election. But it appears he built a reservoir and resentment and hate to be exploited by Hanson.
We are in a dark period now in Australia. Will Albanese and ALP stand up and fight for fairer Australia or succumb to the dark forces is what we are going to witness in the next 6 months and 1 year. We know that dark forces can succeed with the victory of ‘No’ vote in Voice referendum.
So we git another poll with One Nation in front of Labor in primary vote despite being hit with gaffes relating to abortion and the grey area around their policy (especially on housing), if they even know what is is. I wouldn’t be surprised if all polls this and in the following weeks will continue to show the same trend. It also seems like they’ll overtake Labor in Primary vote in Bludgertrack within the next few weeks if the current polling trend continues.
Is it now safe to say they’ve the teflon effect?
BW
It is the Trump playbook after all and it shows that people keep falling for it time after time. They/Hanson can do no wrong until it actually happens that what they thought was going to happen turns out to be a crock of shit. It’s called learning a lesson the hard way and every now and again it needs to happen. The grass will always be greener on the other side until it’s not. They just can’t be told.
Bludgeoned Westie I mean they’re only up by one but I guess that means one nation’s gonna sweep the country and van you do realise that labour was in a worse position in 2024 and beginning of 2025
steve davis what would you agree sometimes you need to vote in an absolute dumbass to make a point I don’t think one nation’s going to win next election it’s just mathematically impossible will have to do something incredibly bad to piss off inner city suburbs the seats you need to win to get elected
QR
Yes sometimes I think people have to be proved wrong to learn a lesson. Of course most of us here are on the intelligent side of politics and know the history of actual policies and who voted for them and what parties stand for. Hopefully people see through the Hanson bullshit and actually look at facts instead of just vibes, feelings and pathetic excuses to support someone who obviously doesn’t have their best interests at heart. But time will tell.
Ven
What don’t you get? It is not about colour. I know you want it to be, because it makes your worldview nice and simple, but it is about religion and culture. If you actually paid attention to One Nation’s platform, you’d know their primary targets for years have been Islam and cultural integration, not skin tone. They don’t care if someone is white, brown, or black; they care about Halal certification, Sharia law, and whether immigrants assimilate into traditional Australian values. By trying to force this into a basic ‘colour’ argument, you are completely misreading the actual political debate just so you can use a lazy stereotype. Stop oversimplifying a complex cultural issue just because you can’t be bothered to understand the actual platform
steve davis the thing that’s different about Trump even if Hanson gets in is that she’s gonna learn as quickly as she is that you’re only popular because you’re not in charge and if you do any what Gina wants you to well looks like it’s back to labour but honestly I think labors gotta have a fight on them in the 2031 election that’s where I think the battles gonna happen
Every time I see the halal trope rolled out I think of this
https://youtu.be/UhoHwQ0cwIQ?si=e0HN8B-ZzJPFhV67
There’s always a Simpsons episode!
Rossmcg at 9.33 pm and sprocket at 8.39 pm
Not full moon but mutuwhenua, the Maori name for the time when the moon sleeps in its brief dark phase.
New moon starts tomorrow.
Here are the PPM figures from the previous Resolve poll a month ago:
Angus Taylor (Liberal): 33% Anthony Albanese (Labor): 30% Undecided: 37%
If you take the stats literally Taylor has supposedly lost 17% in a month. The reality must be different.
You don’t need to have faith in the Resolve stats. Just note what Mr Duniam said, although not in these exact words. He said it was the drawn out nature of the Lib leadership shambles that caused him to quit.
There are two implications. 1) that shambles is ongoing; Duniam did not have to say so, it’s so obvious. 2) prospects for the federal Libs are much bleaker than for the Tassie Libs (thanks to Tassie Labor).
Duniam is reportedly a good negotiator. He will take a break before returning to the Tassie Libs at some stage. His judgement there would be questioned, as he was the one who publicly advised Premier Rockliff to resign in order to save the Lib government before Labor precipitated its backwards election.
QR
Yes it will be interesting to see if this is just a flash in the pan for Hanson or something more of a long term trend. If it sticks around then its curtains for the LNP. One thing we do know Hanson will be 74 at the next election and 77 in 2031. Can’t see her lasting until 2031. Barnaby is just in the wings waiting for this to happen IMO.
frednk says:
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 10:33 pm
Victoria says:
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 7:31 pm
…
Victoria consistently receives the lowest per capita funding from the Australian Federal Government. Due to the nation’s horizontal fiscal equalisation policies, it contributes more in tax revenue per person than it receives back in federal transfers, making it the largest long-term net subsidiser of the “poorer” states.
..
Infrastructure Funding: Over the past decade, Victoria has received roughly half its fair share of federal infrastructure funding in per capita terms. If funding were strictly commensurate with its population (which sits at roughly 25.8% of the nation), the state would receive an estimated additional $3.5 billion over five years.
..
GST Distribution: Historically and recently, Victoria has received less than its exact population share of Commonwealth grants. There is a consensus that Victoria’s extensive debt is largely compounded by the need to self-fund large-scale projects like the Metro Tunnel and Suburban Rail Loop without the level of federal backing seen in states like NSW.
Now the question is, why isn’t the Age, the Herald sun and the local ABC not complaining about this, instead it’s wall to wall CFMEU, a union Labor got de-registered. The Liberal couldn’t even get them to stop flying their flags on the cranes.
For their incompetence the Victorian state Liberals should hold hang their heads in shame.
_________________________________________
According to the budget papers, this is Com-state payments per capita in the current financial year:
https://budget.gov.au/content/bp3/index.htm
And here are its latest GST relativities:
https://www.cgc.gov.au/reports-for-government/2026-update
Victoria also seemed to get the most infrastructure spending last year (under Transport and Coms):
So considering the State that gets the least back on its GST, and least per person in state payments in general, is currently the most pro-federal Labor (WA), I don’t think horizontal fiscal equalization is the issue in Victoria.
Bludgeoned Westie at 10.50 pm
“Is it now safe to say they’ve {Hanson got}the teflon effect?”
No. Look at the context. To repeat the sporting analogy, we are in the middle of a long drawn out contest between the LNP and the Hanson cult as to which one gets to seriously challenge Labor in 2028.
Currently the Hanson cult is winning, mainly because of continuous LNP own goals. E.g. the polls would not be this bad for the Libs if they hadn’t knifed Ms Ley.
There has been no sustained questioning of Hanson or Joyce on policy or its absence/confusion etc.
Dutton lasted about a week or so when the serious questioning started in late March 2025, then he fell in a heap badly. And he had a party organisation to back him, despite their disagreements.
The Hanson cult has Barnaby as a reported ex-plonker with substantial media experience. They have a clique run by Ashby, not a party organisation like the Libs, however outdated that is.
There are two key points to remember: 1) time remaining until the election, plus the details of the electoral pendulum from 2025 (many first term Labor MPs); and 2) organisational capacity. There is no contest federally in that regard between Labor (with union support) and the celebrity Hanson cult.
@Quentin Rountree says: Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 11:02 pm
Bludgeoned Westie I mean they’re only up by one but I guess that means one nation’s gonna sweep the country and van you do realise that labour was in a worse position in 2024 and beginning of 2025
~~~~~
Only up by one in that specific poll, although other polling has shown a slightly larger lead between ONP and ALP. Everything else past that initial idea are just strawmans you’ve stuffed in my mouth.
I did not doom about the ALP losing the 2028 election and I’ve said multiple times that their buffer (of questionable strength) of 94 seats would be enough to cushion any losses incurred in 2028 and allow the ALP to retain government.
I am aware that Labor was in a worst position in Late 2024 to February 2025. Their polling was worst in both 2pp and Primary votes while the opposition was more organised and had the seat numbers to propel them into Government. I am also aware that we’re 2 years away from an election and that the polling that matters is the time period during the campaign season. I accept all of these arguments. However, they’re starting to get a bit repetitive and especially in a time where the political orthodoxy is crumbling, should be questioned a bit.
New thread.
I think that this is reflective of the new norm in relation to what is acceptable in large swathes of the population these days.
MAFS is a great example of where our society stands, a willingness to showcase emotional and mental domestic violence on free to air prime TV time.
An attitude of, if our side is winning then fuck everyone else. A breakdown in the social cohesion of western style democracies.
So in that political and social environment I am not at all surprised that there is a certain amount of Teflon being applied to ON by the public. But to remember, this is the public that voted for the Libs and Nats for decades, so it’s just the external branding that has changed.
That being said Labor is undoubtedly losing votes to ON. And should be responding with this in mid.