Newspoll in The Australian becomes the latest pollster to have One Nation leading on the primary vote, recording a four-point surge to 31% with Labor down one to 30%, the Coalition down two to 18% and the Greens down one to 11%. Anthony Albanese records his worst net leadership rating to date, with approval down four to 36% and disapproval up three to 60%, while Angus Taylor is down one on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 45%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is in from 46-38 to 44-38. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1240.
Regarding any problem that besets the country right now. Think about who is benefiting from the situation. Also who would scream loudest should the Government try to address the problem.
High housing prices? Hint – not immigrants.
High gas prices? Hint – not immigrants. What about a super-profits tax that was redistributed to help consumers in some way. Who would scream the place down. Hint – not immigrants. A gas reservation policy? Ditto.
… and so on down the list.
Has anyone here mentioned yet that poorlean will destroy Medicare?
Fargo61 says:
Monday, June 8, 2026 at 7:17 pm
The swings in the outer Adelaide seats in their state election show clearly that there can be substantial swings to ON in ALP held seats, indeed those seats were the ALP’s safest and are now their most marginal. Whilst the ALP still won them, they did so on a very high electoral tide. When the tide ebbs it may be a different story.
Also the state swing to ON in QLD, (re Nadia’s earlier post about the QLD sate poll) is almost equal from the LNP and the ALP.
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S.A. had a fairly popular Premier and he could withstand the One nation onslaught. In fact, he increased his majority.
Victoria is a different issue. They have a Premier who has a net/sat resembling Macron.
She is not in a position to take on One Nation, or the “right”.
Victoria
ALP 23
LNP 27
ON. 25
Freshwater – 1034 responses
Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
Monday, June 8, 2026 at 6:45 pm
I wonder how the “cost of living crisis” will be impacted by ON deporting a million permanent residents, foreign students and temporary workers.
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I don’t advocate this sort of transition, my view remains forward planning must dramatically (and visibly) improve.
But in summary:
– total GDP growth falls as there are fewer consumers.
– average per person GDP growth increases as those being deported have the lowest consumption and income levels.
– small, medium and large businesses relying on minimum (or below minimum) wage workers would be forced to increase wages to get scarcer workers, or be forced to invest in technology & automation. Both increase productivity.
– businesses relying on underpaiding workers would have the hardest transition, some will close. Service stations and service work (uber, some cafes) are most at risk.
– housing rents fall, possibly significantly. House prices probably fall further too.
– inflation growth would likely be slower, given goods and services sellers will need to be more competitive with fewer consumers.
– government spending is lower, offset but a lower tax revenue.
You noted permanent as well as temporary, but considering there is about 3 million temporary visa holders in Australia, a 1 million reduction could be met just within that cohort (again, not a policy I endose).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-07/record-number-of-temporary-residents-in-australia-/106112346
newy boy,
Thankyou, excelent news re the Armenian election, a nice boost on top of the Hungarian result.
Do you expect that Radev in Bulgaria will be a problem for Ukraine?
Christ.
Gosh, thanks AJM.
The death poll has arrived.
That Labor gov’t down there is finished.
Such drama in Victoria. Put your political nighties and jocks back on.
Have you found God, Asha?
As a Labor stooge, yeah, I think this is the end for Jacinta Allan.
She had her chance, now it’s over. Best for the party that she resign now, otherwise it’s just dragging the carcass of the party to barely cross the 20% primary vote line in November in which they’ll lose pretty much everything.
Re: Victoria
ALP 23
LNP 27
ON. 25
Freshwater – 1034 responses
That still leaves 25, how much of that was for the Greens?
The average voter doesn’t think this deeply about politics. When the loudest voices make their noises what people see is “controversial changes”. When the government outlines the economics of a complex tax change what they see is “tax”
But when ON says “it’s all those immigrants buying the houses and taking your jobs” people think “yeah, my doctor is Indian and I saw an Asian guy at that home open”
I don’t know what the better approach is. And I think I’m in good company because historically we’ve seen this kind of thing play out before. More than once. I think we’ve been foolish to think Australian politics was somehow resistant to it
It’s over for her down there DPRee. No recovery from these sorts of primaries.
I thought an internal ALP poll might surface (leak), but this one will do.
A couple of other posters here said she should have gone around Oct last year. They were correct.
Fargo61 says:
Monday, June 8, 2026 at 7:32 pm
Re: Victoria
ALP 23
LNP 27
ON. 25
Freshwater – 1034 responses
That still leaves 25, how much of that was for the Greens?
==============
23% plus 100% of 25 still = < 50%
Fargo61 @ #463 Monday, June 8th, 2026 – 7:32 pm
Article doesn’t say, but they do say TPP is 53 – 47
Taken from 5th to 8th. ie over the weekend. Not sure if that is best practice
ajm @ #467 Monday, June 8th, 2026 – 7:37 pm
Also no mention of undecideds
See what I mean about the Melbourne Media. It’s bitchy.
Nice long weekend….and they sit and wait and drop this poll on her shortly after the footy finishes.
Bitchy.
Barnaby Joyce says the Bondi Beach massacre was the “political bomb” that sparked One Nation’s extraordinary rise, with his defection from the Nationals making it socially acceptable to be a Pauline Hanson supporter. The former deputy prime minister said he was surprised One Nation’s primary vote had surpassed Labor’s for the first time in Newspoll history but believed Australians had changed and had a gutful of politicians overpromising and underdelivering in a country that should be one of the wealthiest on Earth.
“People say ‘I’m sorry, I’m over giving you a chance’. And people think it’s just migration. It’s migration and everything else. Migration is merely one issue. There was a political bomb ready to go off and Bondi lit the fuse,” Mr Joyce told The Australian. “Pauline had built up a party and I gave people licence to be open about their new religion. It became socially acceptable to say ‘I’m One Nation’.”
Mr Joyce’s intervention comes as The Australian can reveal the rate of migrants entering the country each day under Anthony Albanese has eclipsed the daily intake of all governments back to the Hawke era. Analysis by The Australian of Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows the population has increased by an estimated 1375 per day since the Prime Minister won the May 2022 election, more than double the rate of both the Hawke-Keating government and John Howard’s Coalition.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/migration-surge-under-albanese-adds-nearly-1100-people-to-australia-each-day/news-story/5450feb0ebacbe05aa3e1556e08f5b00?amp
I live here in Jacinta land. It’s a great place despite the silly media. It will continue to be a great place. It’s a poll and politics is fickle. No one died. I’d prefer Labor running the show. But I’m only one voice amongst the population. Breathe, life goes on.
Re Nadia:
” Re: Victoria
ALP 23
LNP 27
ON 25”
That leaves 25% for Someone Else.
Let’s say 12% of that is Green, which splits 10-2 to Labor. The remaining 13% will be independents and micro parties. Given that ON has probably absorbed much of the vote of right-wing micros, let’s split that 7-6.
That gives Labor 40% 2PP plus whatever floats across from the Right Wing majors (Lib/ON/NAT). It won’t be enough.
But the big thing that jumps out to me is that the Right Wing majors have 52% of the primary vote. If they work together, they would be unstoppable.
A new Vic Labor leader ain’t fixing things. The CFMEU has killed this Vic Govt.
Given how many $millions Clive spends on campaigning, his joy to effort ratio in gaining votes is abysmally poor. Perhaps he should turn his attention to financing something useful like drilling through the centre of the earth and seeing if he ends up in China. {smily emoji}
Seems official now in Armenia:
“Armenia’s pro-Europe party wins election and cements shift away from Russia:
Result strengthens PM Nikol Pashinyan’s drive for deeper integration with Europe despite warnings from Moscow”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/08/armenia-europe-party-wins-election-russia-nikol-pashinyan
A cordon sanitaire is starting to be drawn around Russia’s aggressive imperialism. As it should. They have asked for it, by their violence towards their neighbours, Georgia and Ukraine.
All three deserved the win for their bravery. They did Neale proud.
Fargo61, Monday, June 8, 2026 at 7:25 pm:
No, he’s not a blocker like Orban. He won’t send Ukraine much in the way of aid, but he won’t stand in the way of the richer and more willing EU nations either.
Sanchez is closing in. 126k behind with 91% counted. (While the edit thingy was still ticking it’s pulled in to 113k.)
The absolute tragedy of a Coalition/ON win in Victoria will be the repeal of the treaty. 🙁
What people seem to not notice is Jess Wilson has largely avoided using the word ‘multiculturalism’ ever since the rise of One Nation in the polls rather as a strategy to avoid getting into the debate and potentially avoid as much bleed from the anti-multicultural voters to the ONP and pro-multicultural voters to Labor/Teals
Today’s QLD and VIC polling indicate the claimed death of the Liberals may be premature.
Steve777, Monday, June 8, 2026 at 7:49 pm:
If they did that, some of that 52% PV will peel off: mostly from Liberal to Teal, maybe some ON to Labor/Other. There’s a reason there is relatively high leakage of ON/Coalition preferences away from each other and to Labor.
Looking like the Victorian ALP might be looking at what we in Queensland might refer to as a Tarago electoral result (what’s the modern equivalent of a Tarago?) Allen must be close to a dead certainty to lose her seat. On Sunday, we also had DemosAU publish a 2PP of 58:42 to the blue team in Queensland.
I’m really looking forward to some state polling out of NSW, not necessarily because I have any particular expectations, but more that I’m genuinely curious as to whether this fury with the red team is effecting all of the east coast or is more state-by-state proposition. The Coalition are definitely looking viable at a state level even if the federal picture is pretty dire.
I noticed that Peru is almost the complete opposite of the pretty much the rest of the world where it’s the cities that are right-wing populist, and it’s actually the rural areas that are centre-left.
The Wombat: what’s the modern equivalent of a Tarago?
Kia Carnival
@DPRee, there seems to be a raging massive campaign war against the Victoria Government from right-wing media and influencers with the help of the Victorian Liberal Party by trying to portray the state especially as some dystopia. Identical to American Conservatives with the help of Fox News and the GOP portraying California, Chicago and NYC is Liberal dystopia hellholes plus the massive campaign against against Justin Trudeau with help of both American and Canadian Conservatives in portraying Canada as a dystopia.
Time for a poll from Ukraine!
https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1615&page=1
ajm says:
Monday, June 8, 2026 at 7:24 pm
Victoria
ALP 23
LNP 27
ON. 25
Freshwater – 1034 responses
SHIT!!!
and the Greens?
Well, you can’t call an electoral wipeout a “Carnival result”. I’m pretty certain for the Victorian ALP, it would have to be something both Chinese-made and electric.
Teams? Fury with the red team? This is not the rugby league, blues v maroon! But hey, anything to detract from poor federal polling.
You think there’s some kinda difference between them beyond what colour tie they wear?
Should add, anyone noticed how Albo had moved to a range of orange ties a year or two ago? And suddenly they are no more?
I noticed that Wikipedia is rounding up to the thousandths place as far as the vote percentages go for the presidential election.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, June 8, 2026 at 7:58 pm
The absolute tragedy of a Coalition/ON win in Victoria will be the repeal of the treaty.
========
I don’t think that is at the forefront of most voters minds.
We had a treaty voice in QLD too, it was repealed within weeks after the change of gov’t.
This is not a priority issue for most voters.
Thanks Marh. It does feel like influence in Victoria. All my crowd are doing fine and are happy. Life ain’t perfect but we are well. No baseball bats out for Jacinta. Jess Wilson seen as a dress up merchant like Scomo. One Nation doesn’t really come up. But Victoria is a big state and all will vote in November.
How do I post images here?
Personally I thing Indigenous Australian issues are important issues in many people’s minds
And those for whom it is a priority don’t and never would vote Coalition or One Nation, so the Right can safely ignore them while winning kudos from its base.
Steve777 says:
Monday, June 8, 2026 at 7:49 pm
……..But the big thing that jumps out to me is that the Right Wing majors have 52% of the primary vote. If they work together, they would be unstoppable.
============
The extra issue in Victoria is that the Upper House vote is not determined statewide, but is split into eight different electoral divisions, some of which are rural and the majority of which are metro.
The Upper House arrangement was created by the Bracks gov’t in 2003. It might be a bit of a backfire what they, (Labor), created as this could result in a very “right wing” Legislative Council if the vote holds through the next 19 weeks, especially if the O.N. & LNP vote is banking up in regional Victoria.
The 2nd issue, is that Victoria still retains “group ticket voting”, so unless Allan repeals that (& quick), you are likely to see a very strong flow of preferences between the right wing aligned parties.
Forget about 66.6% – it will more likely be around 95%, given around 95% of voters vote above the line.
Prem Allan is a clueless cow for allowing the “group ticket voting” system to remain in place.
She’s clueless.
The Wombat, Monday, June 8, 2026 at 8:23 pm:
When I’m on a laptop (like now), I right click on the image I want to copy and select ‘Copy Image Address’. Then, in my post, I paste the image address, and then add to the end of that address: #image.jpg
The result is the graph in my last post, taken straight from the website I linked below the graph.
Monday, June 8, 2026 at 7:24 pm
Victoria
ALP 23
LNP 27
ON. 25
Freshwater – 1034 responses
__________________
If only Pi was here to explain how this leads to a Labor landslide.