Newspoll in The Australian becomes the latest pollster to have One Nation leading on the primary vote, recording a four-point surge to 31% with Labor down one to 30%, the Coalition down two to 18% and the Greens down one to 11%. Anthony Albanese records his worst net leadership rating to date, with approval down four to 36% and disapproval up three to 60%, while Angus Taylor is down one on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 45%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is in from 46-38 to 44-38. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1240.
ALP at 30% is not bad, I agree. It is the Coalition falling int0 a hole. What we don’t know is:
1. where is the peak for ON;
2. how well can ON support withstand a sustained critical focus on its policies?
I think such criticism is best directed at prising any ex-Labor voters who have switched to them, back to Labor. I think such criticism would be most effective if it alerted those voters to specific risks ON poses to their local economy, where such risks can be illustrated concretely. I think criticism in the form of appeals to abstract theories will fall flat.
Is the preferred prime minister v Hanson or v Taylor?
What TPP are we getting from these numbers?
Fuck
OK, so Preferred PM Albo 44, Taylor 38.
ALP has suffered a 1 point drop in primary (ie: big deal), and One nation and the LNP are basically swapping votes.
This doesn’t look like much of a budget backlash, unless I’m misreading something here.
Labor not dreadful. Coalition are in the toilet at 18%. As Scott reminds, Liberal only vote will be lower. They were meant to come back. Pauline is sucking their voter base.
Should not be a preferred PM v Hanson as she is a Senator.
It is obvious now that the most relevant national TPP is Labor-ON, not Labor-Coalition.
It was Margo Kingston’s post that I got around to reading today that truly scared me, especially in how they treated her for recording a One Nation branch meeting in Lyne. Full Gestapo shit.
Yet that seems to be what we’re marching towards.
Good video from The Sloan Zone from today on the subject.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0ZwXR6KIts
I did some calculations, and from 2025 preference flows, the 2PP should be around 53% ALP to 47% L/NP.
@nadia
I’ve got it roughly as 50.5-49.5 Labor v. One Nation, assuming ON gets 70% of Coalition, 10% of Greens and 50% of Others.
World History Encyclopedia
@whencyclopedia
Agrippina the Elder (14 BCE to 33 CE), as the granddaughter of Emperor Augustus and the wife of the popular general Germanicus, wielded significant influence in the early years of the Roman Empire and was a major player in the internal politics of the Julio-Claudian dynasty.
Her ambitions and familial ties put her at odds with powerful rivals, leading to her exile and eventual death by starvation in 33 CE. Although she would not live to see their reigns, she was the mother of one Roman emperor (Caligula) and grandmother of another (Nero).
Agrippina was born in 14 BCE into the most powerful family in the Roman world. Since 27 BCE, her maternal grandfather, Augustus Caesar (63 BCE to 14 CE), had ruled as princeps, or ‘first citizen’, of Rome, a new office that placed him above even the Roman Senate and allowed him to wield autocratic powers without the dangerous trappings of monarchy.
Her father, Marcus Agrippa (63-12 BCE), had long been Augustus’s close companion, trusted general, and right-hand man, and had been rewarded for his loyalty with a marriage to Julia the Elder (39 BCE to 14 CE), the princeps’ only daughter. To many, this was an implicit recognition of Agrippa as Augustus’s eventual successor; any children he may have with Julia could be expected to one day inherit the legacy of the Caesars and rule the Roman Empire.
After her father’s death, Agrippina went to live with her grandfather in his sprawling villa on Palatine Hill, where she was raised in relative seclusion. Augustus took great pride in Agrippina, praising her intelligence and taking pains to guide her education.
The historian Suetonius records an instance in which Augustus advises his granddaughter to express herself clearly, cautioning her “not to write or speak in an affected manner” (Suet. Aug. 85).
Agrippina and her siblings were also beloved by the Roman people, who often cheered as the little princelings were paraded out at public events. Never before had children been treated with such reverence in Rome, a sign that the family of Augustus had successfully entrenched itself in the hearts and minds of Romans. For Agrippina, the future seemed bright.
Article by Harrison W. Mark.
Images by Didier Descouens, Peter Paul Rubens, Benjamin West and Eustache Le Sueur.
The first photo is ©️ by Osama S.M. Amin.
#AgrippinaTheElder #Agrippina #Rome #RomanEmpire #History #HistoricalWomen #JulioClaudianDynasty
1:40 AM · Jun 6, 2026
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3,119
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The Coalition tossing the principle that One Nation is beyond the pale, by aping its policies and rhetoric at every available opportunity, and openly swapping preferences with them, has only encouraged Coalition voters to be okay with switching to One Nation. Who knew.
Nadia, are you going off like a bride’s nightie with these numbers?!
I’m “Going off like a groom’s jocks”!!
HH:
Hanson’s going to have no trouble finding a lower house seat if the current polls are even remotely accurate.
One rather frustrating consequence of the 2025 Election has been the way its made people treat Scott like some kind of psephology guru rather than the perpetually optimistic broken clock he actually is.
What commentators forget is we have a preferential system. They keep talking up ON’s primary how they are in front but they are not. They are still well behind 2PP. As a matter of fact in most other polls LNP are actually closer to Labor than ON 2PP using respondent-based preferences. Wouldn’t be on this one though if it was measured that way. What it does say is that preference flows to ON and pretty poor and that will badly hurt.
Asha @ #16 Sunday, June 7th, 2026 – 8:02 pm
Yep, there’s plenty of rural QLD/NSW seats with her name on it right now, should she want to position herself as a potential PM.
The Newspoll is dreadful for the L-NP and Albo but not Labor. Labor PV of 30(-1) is a change less than MOE.
Has anyone calculated a Labor ON 2pp from this? I am still not convinced Hanson can be PM from this, because the Liberal vote has further collapsed. Worst case, this would be a Labor minority government with Teal (HOR) and Green (Senate) support.
Kirsdarke, Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 8:30 pm:
Kirsdarke – thank you. I concur with those splits in the absence of much current Lab-ON data. I tentatively think that Labor would beat ON in seats even with a TPP deficit, though, as I think ON would most likely pile up massive TPP wins over Labor in rural seats and waste a lot of its national TPP there.
Based on polls, media is saying that ON is the real opposition and not L-NP although L-NP has numbers in parliament both in Senate and HOR.
This is crazy.
F**k! F**k! F**k!
Still 2 years until the next election though. Hanson isn’t unstoppable and Albo’s adapted before.
At this point in the last cycle was the leadup to the Voice Referendum and there’s much more to play out from here.
The time to start worrying for real would be mid-2027, especially if One Nation makes actually significant gains in the Victorian and NSW state elections and polling remains about this level or worse.
TBM
Thanks, as I suspected.
https://sh.reddit.com/r/friendlyjordies/comments/1tz541y/one_nation_senator_tyrone_whittens_eligibility_to/
Well, Albo probably needs to be replaced and Labor return to being a centre-left party.
Taylor should also be replaced by someone like Zoe McKenzie and the Libs return to being a centre-right party.
Pretty simple really.
Rex Douglas @ #25 Sunday, June 7th, 2026 – 8:12 pm
With all due respect (zero), this is what YOU want. It has nothing to do with any objective political reality.
Ladies and gentlemen: the dumbest man alive.
I think Kirs’ calculation is a bit closer – ie: 50.5%. Maybe a touch lower.
KB hasn’t picked up on the poll yet, but he usually whips up a 2PP.
So after 4 weeks of a big media pile-on, Labor has dropped 1 point, yet I’m guessing we’ll have to put up with Queen Pauline headlines all week & the media howling for an election.
Asha @ #16 Sunday, June 7th, 2026 – 8:32 pm
She’d be kicking herself she didn’t run in Farrer.
In my uneducated opinion, its a rather poor poll for the government, a worse one for Albanese, a truly dreadful one for the Coalition, and scarily good for One Nation.
I’m genuinely unsure if the Coalition’s continued slide is good or bad news for the government’s continued survival. One thing I becoming increasingly sure of, however, is that Taylor will have been rolled by Hastie by early next year at the latest.
Kirsdarkes honestly I’m wondering if one nation’s just picking up people who were going to vote for the coalition in areas where the coalition was the main party that’s what I think’s happening sure one nation might get some green and Labor voters here and there but honestly this looks like one Nations eating to the liberals lunch and then the and then the Independence are eating the liberals
Political reality is staring you in the face, Wat. Take a good look.
Quick 2PP pls WB if you’ve got a tic
Ashasays:
I’m genuinely unsure if the Coalition’s continued slide is good or bad news for the government’s continued survival.
_____________
My opinion, which is probably worth fuck all, is that as long as the ALP PV stays over 30, preferably 33, the rise of ON advantages Labor considerably.
Any TPP calculation is so sensitive to errors in the One Nation preference flow as to be not worth doing.
nadia honestly I think one nation’s problem is that they have to the city areas remember when last time people were thinking that the liberals could win it and I was like yeah that they have to start working on the inner city seats honestly I think this is fine for labour is it on starting to think that one nation’s eating the coalition and their popular in regional and all that
Yes, I also think replacing Taylor with a Teal-esque professional woman from an urban electorate who has only been in parliament for a term and a bit will do wonders to lure back voters who have abandoned the Coalition for One Nation.
Rex has posted mock outage today, and now comedy at night. Just show pony silly business.
That poll was about what I expected but that does not make me feel any better.
… and this is before the cumulative and growing impacts of the SoH closure start hitting.
Fair enough. Pity the ALP didn’t run a candidate in Nepean or Farrer, if anything so we could get a real time preference flow.
Rex, are you planning to get on board attacking One Nation policies and positions for how they will economically hurt those of their voters who might switch to them from Labor?
Nath:
I’m of a similar mindset, but I fear that might be wishful thinking on my behalf too.
I do agree with William that the national TPP is becoming an increasingly meaningless measure in the current circumstances.
Even though a poor poll for the government, government just burned a lot of political capital reforming taxation system, interest rates have risen a bunch of times with more expected, wars overseas causing low confidence for future. Still nose in front. Opposition should be ahead given the circumstances.
Thanks WB
I was in the CBD today. It was the busiest I have seen the city on a cold Sunday afternoon.
The eateries were packed to the rafters.
The shops buzzing with activity. Gotta say I was kinda surprised.
Just the one Labor-ON 2CP count from 2025, and no Labor-ON federal by election since, doesn’t help.
Yeah honestly with how the media acting awful Labor would be down 10 points and lose more to one nation if anything if I was a member of the coalition I’ll be s******* my pants so but if they need help I will be willing to put my hand out for the job I could need some money I’m on disability support pension I could sell out my beliefs
Quentin Rountree says:
Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 8:49 pm
nadia honestly I think one nation’s problem is that they have to the city areas remember when last time people were thinking that the liberals could win it and I was like yeah that they have to start working on the inner city seats honestly I think this is fine for labour is it on starting to think that one nation’s eating the coalition and their popular in regional and all that
=========
I’d agree QR. I think also the Libs “former inner city seats” are gone for good. It’s too difficult for them to appeal to two vastly different constituencies, especially with O.N. breathing down their neck (or literally stomping on them atm).
I don’t think this Newspoll is a disaster for the ALP.
Man, I have never been so glad that our federal system has elections every three years, an upper house with staggered terms, and a requirement for the government to maintain the confidence of the lower house.