US California jungle primary live

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 1pm AEST today for California’s jungle primary. At a jungle primary all candidates compete together, and the top two, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.

The main interest will be the California gubernatorial primary. In April it was plausible that Republicans Hilton and Bianco could both advance. But Democrats Becerra and Steyer have both surged in the polls. The Fiftyplusone aggregate has Hilton at 22.2%, Becerra 21.6%, Steyer 19.4% and Bianco well behind with 11.6%. At least one Democrat will advance, avoiding a strongly Democratic state having an all-Republican gubernatorial general election.

Other contests in California will use the same system. If two Democrats or two Republicans advance to the runoff in a competitive seat, that’s a disaster for the opposite party. The first round of a special election in California’s first federal seat will also be today, with a runoff on August 4 if nobody wins a majority, after the Republican incumbent died in January.

At the 2024 presidential election, California’s first voted for Donald Trump by 61.1-36.1 over Kamala Harris, a 24.9-point margin. This seat has been gerrymandered to favour Democrats, with the new lines giving Harris a 12.2-point margin, but these lines won’t apply to the special election. Two Republicans and two Democrats are standing, with Republican Gallagher likely to dominate the Republican vote and win an outright majority.

Republicans currently hold a 218-212 majority in the House of Representatives with four other vacancies. The jungle primary for Democrat Swalwell’s California 14 is on June 16 with a runoff if needed on August 18 after Swalwell resigned in April. A jungle primary will occur in Georgia 13 on July 28 with a runoff if needed on August 25 after the Democratic incumbent died in April.

I wrote for The Conversation on May 15 about two recent court decisions that will result in the federal House map for the 2026 midterm elections favouring Republicans. On April 30, the US Supreme Court allowed southern states to axe their Black seats and on May 8 the Virginia Supreme Court rejected a Democratic 10-1 gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 House seats, despite this gerrymander passing at a referendum.

As a result of these decisions, Democrats need to win the House popular vote by at least four points to have a good chance to win a House majority at November’s midterm elections. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of generic ballot polls, Democrats lead Republicans by 48.6-41.5, a 7.1-point margin. That’s the biggest lead for Democrats this cycle. Trump’s net approval in Silver’s aggregate has improved slightly to -19.0 from a low of -20.2 on May 19.

Democrats need four gains to control the Senate. On national polling, North Carolina and Maine should be gains while other Republican-held states need at least a double-digit Democratic margin to fall. Controversial Democratic and Republican nominees in Maine and Texas respectively could make Maine harder for Democrats and Texas easier.

UK: Can Andy Burnham win the Makerfield by-election?

After dire results for Labour at the May 7 Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local elections, there has been renewed pressure on PM Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is seen as the most likely challenger to Starmer, but he needs a seat in the House of Commons first.

On May 14, Labour MP Josh Simons resigned Makerfield to allow Burnham to become an MP if he wins the June 18 by-election. Starmer didn’t attempt to block Burnham, unlike for the February Gorton and Denton by-election. At the 2024 general election, Labour defeated the populist right Reform in Makerfield by 45.2-31.8 with 10.9% for the Conservatives, 6.8% Liberal Democrats and 4.4% Greens. But at the May local elections, Reform won 50% in the eight wards within Makerfield.

A small-sample Survation poll of Makerfield in mid-May gave Burnham a 43-40 lead over Reform, with 7% for Restore (another populist right party), 4% Lib Dems, 3% Greens and 2% Conservatives. In the Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls, Reform leads with 27.6%, followed by Labour at 19.4%, the Conservatives 18.1%, the Greens 13.9%, the Lib Dems 12.3% and Restore 2.9%. The Greens have slid from a high of 15.9% in early April.