Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two more pollsters find One Nation yielding the fruits of a post-budget backlash, with the Coalition sinking ever further.

The fortnightly YouGov Sky News Pulse poll joins RedBridge Group and DemoAU in recording a primary vote lead for One Nation, who have surged four points in the second such poll since the budget to 29%, with Labor down two for the second fortnight in a row, to 26%. The Coalition has more than lost the two-point gain it made in the post-budget poll, being down three to 20%, while the Greens are steady on 13%. Two-party measures have Labor leading One Nation 52.5-47.5, in from 53-47, and the Coalition 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48.

Anthony Albanese has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval to 60%. He holds a 47-41 lead over Pauline Hanson on preferred prime minister, in from 50-38, and 41-39 over Angus Taylor, in from 41-38. Forty-six per cent of all respondents said they believed the Coalition and One Nation should work together to form government with 31% opposed, breaking down to 45% and 28% among Coalition voters and 53% and 25% among One Nation voters. The poll was conducted last Tuesday through to yesterday from a sample of 1471.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has One Nation drawing level with Labor on the primary vote at 27%, with Labor down half a point and One Nation up one-and-a-half, with the Coalition down three to 20% and the Greens steady on 13.5%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on respondent-allocated two-party preferred is unchanged at 53.5-46.5; against the Coalition, Labor’s lead improves from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52-48 to 53.5-46.5 on previous election flows. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1542.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,546 thoughts on “Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 31 of 31
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  1. I didn’t say that an individual test is inappropriate but rather that mass screening is costly and inefficient

  2. Kronomexsays:
    Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 3:11 pm
    Sadly this has now become part of the ritual, “Ho-hum, another yet another weekly shooting incident in ‘merica
    _______________________
    A bit like the machete attacks in Melbourne.
    Another 2 bad ones over the weekend.

  3. Push back online about Herald Sun publishing and promoting ‘Ditch the witch’ against Premier Allan, rather than castigating it. So very fifteen years ago with PM Gillard. Be better.

  4. One Nation Senator Tyrone Whitten’s eligibility to sit in parliament has been thrown into doubt amid revelations the West Australian retains shares in his family’s civil construction company, which has been awarded a multimillion-dollar Commonwealth contract to help deliver Snowy Hydro 2.0.

    Despite declaring in his maiden speech last year he was “no longer part” of Whittens Group, which he founded with his brother in 2001, the WA Senator’s latest register of interests shows he remains a shareholder in the company.

    Senator Whitten’s ongoing stake in an organisation that has won taxpayer-funded contracts raise questions over whether he’s flouting constitutional rules, in the latest potential legal breach by One Nation after it was this week found not to have lodged audited financial statements for the past three years.

    The populist party also remains under fierce scrutiny for the handling of convicted rapist Sean Black, with criticism in parliament that Pauline Hanson’s refusal to condemn her former staffer suggested One Nation took no ownership of its mistake in rehiring Mr Black following his jail term and would not change its approach to such matters in the future.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/one-nation-senator-tyrone-whitten-risks-section-44-breach/news-story/6ff3a147609fa408824762b949ce0566?amp

  5. We don’t hear much about Pakistan – well here’s a fun fact. Pakistan leads the world in solar panel imports..

    Most of the world’s future electricity demand growth will come from countries that look more like Pakistan than like Germany. Hot, growing, energy-hungry, often saddled with creaking grids and expensive imported fuel. The conventional assumption was that these countries would electrify the way the rich world did, through large centralised power stations and slow grid expansion. Pakistan suggests another path is not only possible but may be unstoppable once the price signals line up. Cheap panels plus an unreliable grid equals mass distributed solar, whether or not anyone planned for it.

    https://janrosenow.substack.com/p/pakistan-the-solar-revolution-nobody

  6. Oakeshott Country says:
    Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 4:38 pm

    Not quite sure of your point unless it is that open conflict between Taiwan and China is inevitable in 2027 (because no negotiated solution is possible) and Australia must be a participant on Taiwan’s side by spending 3/4 0f a trillion on subs that will be available 20 years after the event.

    I am quite sure that you have been missing the point for some time. Calling something a civil war does not make it so. IMO, in important ways it has moved on from there. What will settle it is military and economic might.

    I am opposed to the AUKUS purchase but not of purchasing nuclear propelled subs.

    I see no longer see a real point in Australia’s current relationship with the US. I believe that ANZUS is irrelevant and that a US military presence in Australia by way of bases and equipment and marine rotations are a liability.

  7. Oakeshott Country @ #1403 Sunday, June 7th, 2026 – 9:54 am

    Malaria is caused by a plasmodium rather than a virus. A vaccine would be a great tool in its elimination but as the 600,000 who die from malaria each year live in smelly countries there has not been an imperative for western governments to be involved. A moderately successful vaccine is now becoming available.

    Never mind the plasmodia (the parasites that have influenced the human genome more than any other agent – think blood groups, thalassaemia & sickle cell disease, not to mention chattel slavery in the Caribbean & US) – if you really want a disease recurrence that epitomises the Trumpian Scum, look up screw worm. The larvae are laid on wounds & eat living flesh. It was controlled to the Darien Gap until Rat Fucker Kennedy Jr got his hands on it. The new Nuremberg Trials are going to be quite something.

  8. Based on the standard from the Bob Day case, Whitten should be turfed out by the High Court.

    Peter Dutton should have been disqualified but instead of the Federal Court referring Dutton to the High Court after the question was raised in a court case related to refugees, they had squibbed it in the David Gillespie case by deciding that “only Parliament” can refer someone. Which is bullshit, because it means that a Government in power can appoint an ineligible person then prevent them from being disqualified.

    Looks like Hanson’s demon spawn might finally get to feed directly at the Government trough, rather than her bullshit “job” as an “advisor” to Sean Bell. 60k bump in pay packet going to the Senate and then whatever inflated, funnelled through the One Nation printing empire “expenses” she can claim.

  9. Do you think that there will be just as much hubris about One Nation not winning any seats on election night in Victoria as there was in South Australia?

  10. Thomas Brian Muttersays:
    Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 7:03 pm
    Do you think that there will be just as much hubris about One Nation not winning any seats on election night in Victoria as there was in South Australia?
    _____________________
    I remember the mantra being ‘how many seats have ON won so far?’

    Turns out it was 4

  11. FOI to die? Albanese’s nuclear strike on transparency

    https://michaelwest.com.au/foi-to-die-albaneses-nuclear-strike-on-transparency/

    “So adamant is the Albanese Government to keep AUKUS nuclear waste plans secret, they initiated a Federal Court appeal to overturn an Administrative Review Tribunal transparency win. Rex Patrick reports.
    :::
    It’s clear that the documents the Government was ordered to make public are politically sensitive. They may well be politically radioactive, but this is not an allowable reason under the Freedom of Information Act to refuse to release documents.
    :::
    In lodging the appeal and seeking costs against me the Government has ignored its own model litigant rules, which state that it can’t “take advantage of a claimant who lacks the resources to litigate a legitimate claim”. The rules also state that “In certain circumstances, it will be appropriate for the Commonwealth or Commonwealth entity to pay costs (for example, for a test case in the public interest).”
    :::
    “Threatening someone with a potentially crippling legal bill simply because they put a successful FOI through the system is bullying, plain and simple.””

  12. All you need to know about Michael West is that according to his own website, he only wrote one single short paragraph about Robodebt during the Liberal Party’s terms in power. Then once Labor were elected he’s written dozens of attack articles as if it were Labor who created it.

  13. For those old enough to remember the original Race Around the World.. intro for the new series looks grim.. lots of preterition on show.. proof times have changed.. hopefully the contestants make the films about the subjects & not themselves

  14. Very pleased to see the clap back on socials against the sexist and misogynistic attacks on the Victorian premier. It was bad enough 15 years ago when Gillard endured the Ditch the Witch bullshit, let alone in 2026.

  15. Let’s not pretend that new – or old – submarines are what AUKUS is really about

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/let-s-not-pretend-that-new-or-old-submarines-are-what-aukus-is-really-about-20260605-p604ck.html

    “AUKUS is just one aspect of a fundamental transformation of Australia’s military posture. We are developing airfields, expanding and strengthening runways for US strategic bombers, building fuel depots, pre-positioning weapons stores and engaging in close co-operation with US airpower as part of an Enhanced Air Co-operation initiative.

    We have committed at least $8 billion to upgrade wharves, maintenance facilities and logistics infrastructure near Fremantle to create Submarine Rotation Force-West. The spin doctors describe it as an “optimal pathway” for AUKUS. In fact, it is a forward-operational deployment of the US Navy, independent of AUKUS, not a down payment on Australia getting its own Virginia-class submarines. In the public’s mind, the two are erroneously believed to be the same thing. The boats may never arrive, but SRF-W will remain as a forward-operational deployment of the US Navy.
    ::::
    The real debate isn’t about the cost of new versus old submarines but whether preserving a US-dominated region is in Australia’s interests. That is a question of politics, not technical expertise.”

  16. Scepticsays:
    Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 7:40 pm
    For those old enough to remember the original Race Around the World.
    ___________
    Great memories. I was dating this sculptress who had ADHD. For some reason the show really calmed her.

  17. Hello bludgers. I was traveling today and mercifully missed Insiders. Catching up with Shoebridge’s comments I despair at the leaps of logic.

    There are some valid criticisms of AUKUS but then Shoebridge goes to use that as an excuse to do nothing and cut defence spending. Just because something is being done badly doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be done. We don’t scrap hospitals when one is mismanaged.

    The Greens want to cut defence capability as Boerwar and I have said before. You can’t pay all the salaries of the Defence workforce we have with the Greens’ proposed defence budget. We couldn’t patrol our peacetime borders adequately, never mind fight a war with anyone.

  18. nadia, are you around? If so, is there a Newspoll tonight? If there is, I predict a loss in the PV of Hanson’s crowd.

  19. Confessions, yes.
    ‘Ditch the witch’ against Premier Allan is so very fifteen years ago with PM Gillard. We have evolved.

  20. Pauline Hanson has questioned whether authorities ranked above accused war criminal Ben Roberts-Smith will face trial as she addressed a ‘Justice for Ben’ community barbecue in Brisbane’s south-west on Sunday.

    The One Nation leader arrived to cheers and claps at the event in Seventeen Mile Rocks, before being surrounded by her own supporters. Nearby was a ‘Ben for PM’ sign.

    Hanson threw her support behind the former soldier at the event, held in a local park in the Oxley electorate where the populist leader first entered parliament as an independent MP after initially running for the Liberal Party.

    “None of us can judge Ben. But what I can judge is the man has now been charged with a crime 17 years after the fact,” she told a crowd, who had showed up to the ‘Friends of Ben’ community barbecue.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/hanson-hosts-barbecue-for-ben-roberts-smith-supporters-questions-his-superiors-20260607-p604k2.html

    How did this become a ‘community issue’? And is there a statute of limitations on war crimes? I wouldn’t have thought so. Hanson should be applauding the rule of law not dissing it.

  21. An interesting podcast with David Frum..

    Basically the mafia behavior of Trump, Trump not the just most corrupt POTUS ever.. probably the most corrupt leader of any “ democracy” anywhere at any time..

    Take away.. the English lopped of Charles I head for trying what Trump is doing.

    “Now, if there’s one principle, one foundational constitutional principle the United States has insisted on since the beginning and inherited from England beforehand, it is that any money the executive has must come from the legislature.
    No taxation without representation. If the executive has money, the legislature has to approve it, or there has to be some legal mechanism, like a legal settlement. The last head of government of an English-speaking country to try in a serious way to create revenue that the legislature had no say over was Charles I of England, and the English cut his head off for it.
    And ever since the English cut off the head of Charles I, it’s been well understood, if the executive wants money, it has to ask the legislature, or you can win maybe because of a court settlement. But Donald Trump said not that, so I think this is as unconstitutional thing as a president can do. I arguably, I mean, more than creating a state religion where we have to bring sacrifices to ball and worship, bring golden calves to sacrifice.
    That’s a violation of the first amendment, but the amendment is just an amendment. This is

    From Talking Feds: David Frum’s Unified Thesis of Trump’s Failings, 4 Jun 2026
    https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/talking-feds/id1456045551?i=1000771134843&r=1591
    This material may be protected by copyright.

  22. Newspoll: Pauline Hanson’s One Nation in front of Labor, Anthony Albanese gets worst ever rating
    In a watershed moment for Australian politics, core support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is ahead of Labor as Anthony Albanese hits a record low.

    Geoff Chambers
    @Chambersgc
    4 min read
    June 7, 2026 – 8:00PM

    Core support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has surged ahead of Labor for the first time in Newspoll history, as Anthony Albanese’s popularity hit record lows and an overwhelming majority of voters ­declare Australian politics is overdue for a big shake-up

  23. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-pauline-hansons-one-nation-in-front-of-labor-anthony-albanese-gets-worst-ever-rating/news-story/f4e47be80091b678d835cb9334fc8b0a

    Newspoll: Pauline Hanson’s One Nation in front of Labor, Anthony Albanese gets worst ever rating

    Primaries: ALP 30 (-1) ON 31 (+4) L/NP 18 (-2) GRN 11 (-1) OTH 10 (0)
    No TPP provided

    “Despite the crisis confronting the major parties, Labor would still lead under a two-party-preferred model slightly ahead of either One Nation or the Coalition. Since achieving a plus-3 approval rating in August last year, Mr Albanese’s performance has been marked down by voters in recent months”

  24. Just read the Newspoll. It’s dreadful for the ALP, Coalition and Albanese. One Nation primary 31%, ALP 30%, Coalition 18%. Albanese personal polling at Tony Abbott levels.

  25. ALP =30% = Not dreadful. Nothing falling off a cliff.
    ON and the LNP are just playing swapsies.

    Many thks to those who’ve got data (I don’t have access).

  26. As for submarine choices, there have been some silly things said. It isn’t all just about China. We are projecting thirty years+ into the future. We don’t know what might happen in that time. We need to build a defence force that can defend us from a range of threats. Submarines would be part of that. But what kind?

    This is where Albo and Marles have created a problem for themselves. They have consistently failed to spell out in clear terms what the threat to Australia might be, and how nuclear submarines might defend against it. So people like Shoebridge can make up their own argument in the vacuum.

    That being said, if you look at the evidence, Shoebridge’s anti-submarine arguments disappear. Shoebridge said we should follow the lead of our Asian neighbours. Well they are all building submarines! India and Korea (SSN+SSK) and Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Taiwan and Vietnam (SSKs) are all buying or building subs.

    The range benefits of SSNs don’t just relate to reaching China or the Strait of Hormuz (though why would you send a submission there??). Australia has a huge maritime patrol area. Some European and Japanese AIP subs do not have enough range to circumnavigate Australia once under AIP. Some long range SSKs can (French and Korean).

    If you looked at what we need to defend Australia, we need aircraft, missiles and submarines that can strike enemies traveling through straits to our north. Our small fleet of warships might not survive in that environment.

    Shoebridge was correct that subs can’t protect shipping to our north in a war. But subs could threaten an opponent’s shipping until they gave up attacking ours.

    If you want to see a defence strategy that clearly identifies risks and strategies to defend against them, look at those published by Japan, France and Sweden.

  27. ALP 30 (-1) ON 31 (+4) L/NP 18 (-2) GRN 11 (-1) OTH 10 (0)
    No TPP provided

    WTF! Seriously. What the actual FucK?

    We are absolutely fucked. ALBO – start campaigning your arse off.

    These people are fraudulent grifters, and yet here we are. 31% is bad enough, but this is the poll people actually listen to.

    That One Nation figure is so scary I can’t properly enjoy LNP on 18% and falling.

  28. By tomorrow we should either have links to PDFs with much more info (and those aren’t paywalled), or at the least I will be able to see what the hard copy table graphic looks like, and I will post a link here.

  29. While that certainly isn’t a good result for the left side of politics, I take a little comfort from that the ALP primary at least isn’t under 30% in this one.

    Is that a new low for the Coalition primary in a federal Newspoll?

  30. Thomas Brian Mutter says:
    Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 8:18 pm
    Is there a PDF of the poll that’s not under a paywall?
    ========
    Leroy sometimes get’s access to the full poll data, might take a while though as the poll has just dropped.
    WB will probably whip up a new thread in a tic, so we might get the full details there.
    Does anyone have the preferred PM numbers?

  31. ALP at 30% is not bad, I agree. It is the Coalition falling int0 a hole. What we don’t know is:
    1. where is the peak for ON;
    2. how well can ON support withstand a sustained critical focus on its policies?

    I think such criticism is best directed at prising any ex-Labor voters who have switched to them, back to Labor. I think such criticism would be most effective if it alerted those voters to specific risks ON poses to their local economy, where such risks can be illustrated concretely.

  32. Labor not dreadful. That’s silly business. Coalition are in the toilet at 18%. As Scott reminds, Liberal only vote will be lower. They were meant to come back. Pauline is sucking their voter base.

  33. The only intervention I’m familiar with that turned around this swing to right wing populist was by the Liberals in Canada. Mr Albanese should be having a careful look at Mr Carney’s playbook (obviously, Mr Trump has helped a lot). Everyone else i can think of has failed, and most analysis I’ve read has said in every case the majority of voters who have moved are very unlikely to come back, in the order of 2/3s are effectively lost to establishment.

    I still don’t see One Nation winning a federal election in 2028, but i can’t see a result where the ALP is likely to be able to govern effectively without drastic changes.

  34. @The Wombat, Canada isn’t good comparison as it had much sharper post-covid immigration which is why they are in currently in a population decline due to the correction phase. Although Mark Carney is cutting annual permanent intake, Canada would still have significantly higher annual permanent intake (380K or 0.9% of the population) than Australia (185K or 0.6% of the population).
    I think it is more that there is currently a large anti-multicultural sentiment in Australia ever since the March for Australia rallies and Bondi Shooting unlike Canada where multiculturalism is viewed more as a legacy and immigration debate is only about the immigration numbers.

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