Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two more pollsters find One Nation yielding the fruits of a post-budget backlash, with the Coalition sinking ever further.

The fortnightly YouGov Sky News Pulse poll joins RedBridge Group and DemoAU in recording a primary vote lead for One Nation, who have surged four points in the second such poll since the budget to 29%, with Labor down two for the second fortnight in a row, to 26%. The Coalition has more than lost the two-point gain it made in the post-budget poll, being down three to 20%, while the Greens are steady on 13%. Two-party measures have Labor leading One Nation 52.5-47.5, in from 53-47, and the Coalition 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48.

Anthony Albanese has taken a hit on his personal ratings, down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval to 60%. He holds a 47-41 lead over Pauline Hanson on preferred prime minister, in from 50-38, and 41-39 over Angus Taylor, in from 41-38. Forty-six per cent of all respondents said they believed the Coalition and One Nation should work together to form government with 31% opposed, breaking down to 45% and 28% among Coalition voters and 53% and 25% among One Nation voters. The poll was conducted last Tuesday through to yesterday from a sample of 1471.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has One Nation drawing level with Labor on the primary vote at 27%, with Labor down half a point and One Nation up one-and-a-half, with the Coalition down three to 20% and the Greens steady on 13.5%. Labor’s lead over One Nation on respondent-allocated two-party preferred is unchanged at 53.5-46.5; against the Coalition, Labor’s lead improves from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52-48 to 53.5-46.5 on previous election flows. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1542.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

67 thoughts on “Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 2
1 2
  1. DPReesays:
    Wednesday, June 3, 2026 at 7:49 am
    LoL Taylormade. Quick, put Jess Wilson in a cosplay piggy suit, she will fly!
    _______________________
    As per The Age Editorial. You must be one of the Victorians that HAVEN’T been paying attention.

  2. LoL Taylormade. I’m informed by cosplay Jess on the nightly news reading her cue cards and performing mock outrage. What will they dress her in next? At least Scomo’s dress up box is being recycled.

  3. On AUKUS some more detailed analysis has been done by Adm Peter Briggs about the implications of the “second hand Virginias” decision. Briggs thinks we will most probably get Virginia Block IIIs once all constraints are considered. This article demonstrates how complex it will be keeping these subs in operation while Australia is (supposedly) building SSN AUKUS.
    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/06/second-hand-submarines-a-sovereign-flaw/

    There is a strong element of “I told you so” in this article on AUKUS. Again, the critic is well informed.
    https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2026/05/no-new-virginias-for-australia-under.html

  4. I woke up 3 this morning with the following thought:

    Trump at a rally as a fat greasy duck with one leg in a cast and waving his wings as he quacks on and on and…ad nauseam.

    Made me wonder if it’s a sign of things to come.

    I call bullshit on Donnie going off at Netanyahu, he loves and worships his favourite dictators and nationalist thug leaders too much to dare upset them.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/02/trump-shouted-and-cursed-netanyahu-over-threat-to-resume-beirut-bombing

  5. I know it isn’t a regular conducted poll, but the New Daily has this result;
    * No – I think voter support will drop off come an election – 62%
    * Yes – If One Nation has the support there’s no avoiding it – 22%
    * Not sure – It’s up to Labor and the Coalition to turn the polls around – 16%
    From 2691 votes

  6. Yesterday I got a leaflet from Clive Palmer in my mailbox. Letter size, 6 pages, both sides printed, two weights of paper, stapled, rather expensive looking, black and yellow all over.

    It says it’s authorised by the United Australia Party.

    There’s no such party. Clive recently changed his party name to Australian Federation Party. The name United Australia Party was deregistered in September 2022 – and didn’t belong to Clive anyway.

    I have lodged a complaint with the AEC. I encourage others to do likewise if you get one.

  7. GrannyAnny, Wednesday, June 3, 2026 at 9:34 am

    I know it isn’t a regular conducted poll, but the New Daily has this result;
    * No – I think voter support will drop off come an election – 62%
    * Yes – If One Nation has the support there’s no avoiding it – 22%
    * Not sure – It’s up to Labor and the Coalition to turn the polls around – 16%
    From 2691 votes

    GrannyAnny – if you’re up for keeping tabs on PB predictions from now until the next election in 2028, put me down for:
    * No – I think voter support will drop off come an election – 62%
    😉

  8. Hard Being Green @ 8.00am
    Alas, many voters often choose self interest ahead of community or national interest, when they vote.
    My Union, The NSW Teachers Federation was active in The Voice campaign and has been a leading voice for Indigenous Affairs in the 38 years in which I was an active member of the Federation.
    I wouldn’t equate the failure of The Voice campaign to suggest that any Union campaign against No Notion could be a failure.
    You could be correct in your comment that some union members, may vote for No Notion.
    Some vote for The Counts and The Lieberals, too!
    However, based on my TF experience, any union campaigning against No Notion, will be based upon highlighting the inconsistencies and potential damage to Australia and Australians in their message, rather than a blanket attack upon Hanson et el on a personal level.

  9. The ACT Liberals shoot themselves in the foot again. Leanne Castley, who became leader after they lost the 2024 election, has resigned from the party and will sit as an independent. She is citing a toxic culture in the party and threats to herself. Castley denies that she might join ON but she is from the party’s right wing so the transition would not be difficult. It would also give ON a seat in the ACT assembly without standing at the 2028 election. We’ll wait and see what happens.

    Former Canberra Liberals leader Leanne Castley has resigned from the party and will join the crossbench, sitting as an independent for the rest of the term.

    In a statement, she said she has “simply had enough of being part of an organisation with such a toxic culture”.

    “In the last 18 months, I have experienced bullying, intimidation, lies, and even a threat of physical assault,” she said.

    “I can no longer be part of an organisation which tolerates this conduct.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-03/leanne-castley-announcement-canberra-liberals/106752552

  10. Abortion will be an election issue in the 2028 federal election.
    What that means electorally, I am not certain. The haste with which Chrisafulli damped it down suggests that he, for one, has concerns.
    ——————————————-
    Many moving parts here; PHON, Crisafulli, Abbott 2.0. Maybe Kerry Nettle needs to pull out the infamous Tshirt.

  11. Luigi
    There have been a few double page yellow spreads in dead tree media with Clive’s dial included…thought after the last attempt he’d given up!

  12. I call bullshit on Donnie going off at Netanyahu, he loves and worships his favourite dictators and nationalist thug leaders too much to dare upset them.
    —————————————————————–
    Not imo. Trump respects and admires the power of Xi (and to a lesser extent, Putin). He sees Netanyahu as a clever player on a lower rung than himself. Then he realises Netanyahu has played him. I do not doubt that Trump blew a gasket over it.

    I wonder if other US leaders have been had and then done similar in the past. Question is – what tangible things will Trump do about it?

  13. Abortion is a classic issue where smart politicians know it’s impossible to win. If ON decides to raise it now, it’ll be them and the Greens trading salvos while Labor and Liberal bunker down and hope nobody notices them.

Comments Page 2 of 2
1 2

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *