The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov finds One Nation only one point shy of the vote it recorded in the thick of the Liberals’ early February leadership crisis, recording 27% of the primary vote with Labor down one to 29%, the Coalition steady on 19% and the Greens steady on 13%. One Nation also records its best result yet on the two-party preferred measure against Labor, with the latter leading 53-47, in from 55-45 a fortnight ago. Labor’s lead over the Coalition narrows from 55-45 to 54-46. The poll was conducted from last Thursday through to yesterday from a sample size unspecified – I will hopefully be able to provide further detail later today.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down one-and-a-half points to 27% with the Coalition up by the same amount to 25.5%. One Nation and the Greens were each up a point, to 23.5% and 13.5% respectively. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition narrows from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52-48 to 51-49 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1664.
Mavis
The incompetence of the Trump administration is probably best exemplified by Rubio’s recent comments seeking to prevent Iran implementing a toll on the Straight of Hormuz.
If Dick Cheney was around, a contract would already be tendered to a private firm to provide security for a fee paid by passing ships. A few years later, by a strange coincidence, ol’ Dick would be president of the company.
By contrast, this mob are a unique blend of shameless and incompetent crooks.
Kirsdarke or Pied Piper,
Is there a newspoll coming tonight still, or is this it.
Preferred PM Albo 33, Pauline 23, Lib leader – who cares.
Can’t believe it, One Nation about to hit 30%.
Greens numbers are stable – though pathetically stable.
I keep warning people re One Nation. But maybe it’s also excessive fume inhalation from filling jerry cans?
2028 will be migration election.
I think the interesting thing is that Trump polls so badly, yet fan girl Hanson doesn’t get tarred by it all.
The LNP have got to realise they are competing with One Nation now just as they compete with the ALP. They don’t try to be the ALP to win over voters, so they shouldn’t try to be One Nation to win over voters. The LNP actually need to attack Hanson.
@Alabama at 6:31pm
The last Newspoll was 4 weeks ago, so yes, I think we’re due for another one tonight.
It was probably delayed a week because of the SA election last week.
sprocket_ @ #1952 Sunday, March 29th, 2026 – 6:30 pm
So Trump is rightly being blamed for high petrol prices. At least there’s that to take away.
100%. This is why I believe the Liberals should decouple from the Nationals whilst in opposition. It allows the Liberals to go after the city voters without being dragged down by the numpty party.
Landlord of the Year @ #1951 Sunday, March 29th, 2026 – 6:28 pm
If Labor is such a disappointment and the Liberals a rabble, why is One Nation the primary beneficiary and the Greens are getting essentially MOE and nothing much more?
Surely given the Greens have been around a hell of a lot longer than ON they should also see their PV rise significantly in an era when both major parties are on the nose.
Bizzcan at 6.32pm,
Brisbane radio last week said that the next Federal election may be held in Oct/Nov 2027.
Paul Williams from Griffith Uni, was the man who said this, and apparently to capitalise on the Lib ‘nationwide’ meltdown. Maybe he has access to poll data.
17% nationally for the LNP, might trigger Albo to go ‘a bit’ early.
Out of interest, what date is the earliest Albo can call an early election.
There is no way the federal lib/nats combined primary vote 17% or one nation primary vote 29% is going to get near 47% in 2pp
Federal lib/nats are not going to get close to 100% of one nation preferences and One Nation are not going to get close to 100% federal lib/nats preferences.
@Alabama
Earliest practical date for a House-Half Senate election is 7 August 2027.
I don’t think Albo would go that early though, unless he was seeking a mandate for a major reform like Howard did in 1998.
There will only be an early election under once circumstance – if Labor puts to parliament a bill in 2027 that substantially lowers migration numbers, but the specifics wedge the LNP and Greens (cutting low value international students & increasing skilled labour wage level) and engineers a double dissolution.
And if people really doubt me – more than twice as many people trust One Nation to handle housing issues as for the Greens.
Fess
That’s a good question I can’t answer. Changing leader has done nothing for the Liberal vote, and while there are issues the Greens could benefit from, their polling stays flat.
@Bizzcan at 6:48pm
I don’t think Labor would call a double dissolution about that, it’s in their advantage to keep the seats they gained in 2025 and would just call a normal House-Half Senate election after August if that was the case.
Otherwise quota’s would be halved, meaning a great big awful crossbench to deal with from 2027-2029 (following a DD, the next half-Senate election would be due by May 2029 so that’s 2 years to deal with things rather than the usual 3).
I’m more of the opinion that sending paratroopers to invade Kharg Island with little to no naval support would be suicidal.
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For Trump?
The Navy wasnt much help with the incursion and invasion forces in Afghanistan. But it isnt an apples/apples comparison. I am not aware of any similar supporting group to the Northern Alliance that the US can team up with. And Iran, despite the efforts, still seem fairly well organised.
Kharg would be possible with a lot of air support. Long term; seems of little military strategic use. But that isnt a metric Trump is focused on.
Well, IMO this can be landed solely at the feet of Mouth Almighty Max who turned off more people than who were swayed by the way he handled rental affordability.
Plus the Greens had some poor parliamentary tactics that blew back on them in their efforts to try to wedge Labor on housing. I suspect that’s why Bandt got booted in the end.
I’m wondering that when the greedy farming types are unable to plant or harvest crops because they have no fuel then will the poor and downtrodden city folks complain when they drive to the supermarket only to find no food to buy?
The government will have to provide them with the necessary food requirements.
I kinda hoped/figured that one day that the Greens would overtake the LNP, but I expected it to happen a way down the track with boomers dying off and less conservatism within Millennials, Gen Z and whatever comes after.
Instead it’s the orange monster that John Howard created that the LNP have supported and nutured turning against it’s master.
The inability of the Greens to breakout for 10 to 12% cocoon reflects the fact that still largely have an inner-city mindset. Yes, they do alright on the north coast of NSW and in Tassie. But their coalition of alternative lifestyle types and highly educated people Brunswick/Balmain types the future is not enough.
Their breakout in Brisbane was mostly a case of getting the “Teal” vote in 2022, which they have missed the chance of grabbing in Melbourne and Sydney.
Landlord of the Year @ #1965 Sunday, March 29th, 2026 – 6:49 pm
I suspect it’s because the Greens aren’t trusted on a whole range of issues relevant to today, but it’s interesting that the party that whinges the hardest is getting the love. I think Canavan and Taylor need to really target Hanson from a policy standpoint. What has she ever delivered from her 20+ years in federal parliament? And why would anyone trust her to deliver on her whining?
Scott at 6.46pm,
Your preference thing might be becoming outdated.
It might be better to focus on the labor distribution of preferences.
Confessions – what on earth does Trump have to do with an Australian poll? You have T.D.S.
Thankyou Kirsdarke – you are a constitutional ‘font of knowledge’ here with election calculations. When WB retires, you should take over here. You seem to play a straight bat when dealing with politics.
That Labor left flank is highly disciplined; if anything thats now the foundation of the party as the Australian right wing eats itself, and the right Labor flank remains somewhat iffy but steady.
Next few months the should be interesting, especially if interest rates go 5 plus like some are saying
It’s LNP voters deserting them for One Nation, not many of them are likely to jump to the Greens
We’re back in the teens in these polls, some big results in the UK in May will hopefully give us a lift here
B.S. Fairman
There is something in that, the Greens are unwilling to adapt their economic policies to win Teal areas. Take Ryan, considered by some people to be the most left wing Teal, she has taken positions on taxation and social policies, the Greens wouldn’t.
Libs level with labor on economy only good news.
The good news for one nation in VIC is this Redbridge ,finds them ahead by miles on immigration and linking crime with it as well.Love to see a vic state breakdown.
Interest rate rise is linked to immigration backlash as more demand drives up inflation and prop prices for the young.
Labor could have avoided this by reducing visas etc,as 822,000 int students is a disgrace.
Still interested in greens vote in Newspoll .
BSF:
Plus nobody who isn’t an educated high income earner really trusts the Greens on the economy. That’s why they are unlikely to win Teal seats which are now essentially former Lib seats.
ALABAMA says:
Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 6:58 pm
Scott at 6.46pm,
Your preference thing might be becoming outdated.
It might be better to focus on the labor distribution of preferences.
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That’s how the elections results are counted for 2pp on preferences
Labor getting higher 2pp preferences nation wide will be majority of times be stronger than the federal lib/nats and One nation .
@Team Katich at 6:53pm
Suicidal for the troops mainly. As mentioned before, I doubt that Iran would simply let the US Paratroopers take Kharg Island intact and unopposed and will do all they can in their power to make life hell for them.
If the Americans had hundreds of thousands of troops ready, that would be different, but only ten thousand at most? They’ll be experiencing hell on Earth. Especially with apparently 80% of Iran’s oil export industry located on it.
Landlord of the Year – Speaking of Ryan, she was out and about today at the Glenferrie Festival in Hawthorn. That is my on-the-ground in Kooyong update.
AFR: The Victorian Labor government is announcing one month of free public transport in response to the fuel crisis, in a move expected to impact the budget bottom line by more than $50 million.
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 5:41 pm
I’m more of the opinion that sending paratroopers to invade Kharg Island with little to no naval support would be suicidal.
The US Military doesn’t automatically go into wars with God Mode activated, up until now they’ve understood the importance of logistics and supply. Hundreds of thousands of servicemen were needed in their various military adventures since 1941, especially with island landings. This would be like if the Germans tried to take Baku with paratroopers alone in 1942.
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At the moment, airborne forces in the theatre are an answer looking for a question to solve. I don’t believe “what about Kharg Island?” is that question.
What is the mission?
Prepare the way? Dropping airborne forces to pave the way for heavier ground units is well-established. But that would require a task force to penetrate Hormuz, which is much more of a problem than airdropping onto Kharg (and indeed, may require the very forces you’ve just parked on Kharg Island to achieve).
Smash and grab? If you just want to wreck the joint, dumb munitions are better than dumb humans (I mean, who jumps out of a perfectly good aircraft?). In any case, it does not *seem* they want to wreck the joint.
Land and hold? IMO, that’s a disaster waiting to happen. Once they land, they are a light mobile force, stuck on a coral island 20ks off the coast. Hold for how long? Resupplied by/from…? The analogy might be more Khe Sanh than Arnhem. And if they land and hold for a while, and then decide to pull out without achieving anything, the reputational hit is “fiasco” level.
The only way this option is not a disaster is if:
1. Iran pulls its punches because it doesn’t want to destroy its own infrastructure (with a view to getting it back intact post-war) and doesn’t oppose a seizure, or
2. They are happy for it to be a self-governing prison camp – if the 82nd are sitting on Kharg Island, they cant be landing somewhere else.
NB: The landing can be militarily successful and still a disaster, depending on body counts, something I think we can agree is not going to matter much to Tehran but which will matter a lot in Washington.
Its a moot point for the moment, there are not enough troops in theatre at present to do it. There are only two battalions of the 82nd there at present – 1500 troops. Security experts estimate at least 2000 troops would be needed to take the island in its current state (and that assumes Marines, you can up that number if it is paras only). While they can quickly deploy more from the US, there are no signs of them doing so.
There are only enough airborne troops in theatre to seize one or more of the small islands in the SoH. That might be done to facilitate a naval/marine penetration, or just be a coup de theatre. I can see some sort of use there, depending on other moving parts. But I doubt Kharg Island is a viable option at present.
Oakeshott Country @ #1904 Sunday, March 29th, 2026 – 4:09 pm
Victoria did it in 2024/2025 with our national Parks like Tidal river and Cape Conran but you had to prebook.So what did the punters do,they booked out the camping spots and never turned up leaving shit loads of empty spots,which went over really well with the campers who really wanted to be there.
I doubt the Government will sanction that brainfart any time soon.
Luigi Smith:
Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 5:46 pm
Shirreff makes a lot of sense, and I’m sure that most senior US military officers would agree with his assessments. Moreover:
‘US military officers and federal officials swear an oath of allegiance to the U.S. Constitution, not to a specific president, leader, or political party. This oath, mandated by Article VI of the Constitution, binds them to support the nation’s foundational laws, ensuring loyalty to the Republic and the principle of civilian control.’ – reinforced by this speech:
https://www.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/us-military-officer-we-do-not-take-an-oath-to-an-individual/2961474254138311/
Taking Kharg Island is one thing, but then there is resupplying the troops with food and ammo, evacuating wounded, etc. This easier said than done.
And then Kharg is only an export terminal and Iran has others – they didn’t in the 1980s and that was why it was attacked so heavily. Iranian learnt and built other outlets.
The Bushehr Nuclear plant is just across the water too.
2025 federal election
Lib /nats combined primary vote 31.82%. = 44.78% 2pp
@DBR of CBR at 7:09pm
Thanks for that post for explaining things better than I could.
All in all, treating Kharg Island as though it was Iwo Jima (as Lindsey Graham said on national TV) would be an absolute disaster at this moment for the US Military, and also the world, since I think it would aggravate China, India, Pakistan and others in the area enough for them to start getting involved, and not necessarily in favour of the US.
Scott – Even worse for the LNP is their Primary vote was 41.44% in 2019. That is one massive fall to 17%.
Taking Kharg Island is one thing, but then there is resupplying the troops with food and ammo, evacuating wounded, etc. This easier said than done.
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Sorry, I thought this was a thought experiment on what Trump will try to convince his servants in the military to do. Trump is thinking days and maybe a couple of weeks ahead. Vaguely further. He has an itch to scratch, not a disease to cure. He needs something to get back on the front foot.
Is there another wing of the WH he can demolish?
@Holdenhillbilly at 7:08pm
I might just take them up on that offer, I’m doing a course next month after Easter and can get there by bus.
Would be pretty helpful anyway, parking is a pain in the arse in the middle of Ballarat city for all-day arrangements.
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 7:16 pm
… as though it was Iwo Jima (as Lindsey Graham said on national TV) …
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The highest point, Kuh-e Dideh Bani, is only 80 metres high, probably lower than the tops of the oil infrastructure. No iconic Mount Suribachi photo ops 🙁
Why is diesel so much more expensive than petrol? Diesel can be used in place of natural gas in some processes. Thus, it is rocketing due to both the oil shortage and the gas shortage.
Team Katichsays:
Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 7:20 pm
Taking Kharg Island is one thing, but then there is resupplying the troops with food and ammo, evacuating wounded, etc. This easier said than done.
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Sorry, I thought this was a thought experiment on what Trump will try to convince his servants in the military to do. Trump is thinking days and maybe a couple of weeks ahead. Vaguely further. He has an itch to scratch, not a disease to cure. He needs something to get back on the front foot.
Is there another wing of the WH he can demolish?
– – – – – – – – – – – –
You know what the call a rum and coke (optionally, with a wedge of lime) in the US? There’s your “something”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rum_and_Coke
Trump would want it without the Rum and with Diet Coke.
B. S. Fairman says:
Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 7:17 pm
Scott – Even worse for the LNP is their Primary vote was 41.44% in 2019. That is one massive fall to 17%.
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Yes it is
When looking at the federal liberal party primary vote by itself it was 20.69% , at the 2025 federal election
If the opinion polling is near accurate the federal liberal party primary vote likely around 10-12%
@B.S. Fairman
More demand, I’m guessing? Most heavy vehicles run on Diesel and filling a B-Double probably requires like 200 litres of Diesel as opposed to a family car that can hold 30 litres of Unleaded-91.
Two Criminals’: Iran Labels US Navy Officers Who Ordered 3 Missile Strikes Killing 168 Children In Minab School: https://timelinedaily.com/west-asia/two-criminals-iran-labels-us-navy-officers-who-ordered-3-missile-strikes-killing-168-children-in-minab-school
There is more demand for diesel.
Sigh ….. Chump sending more ground troops to the Gulf??
Just looking at a map.
If they want to put ground troops ashore then i dont think Kharg Island is where they will try that.
Its actually a ways up the Gulf and they would have to run the Strait first, to get amphibs close enough, and if they can do that why bother with Kharg Island as the Iranians wont be able to get tankers loaded there out without US permission?? Honestly, i dont think they can go into Kharg with just airborne troops. They would have to base and build up in Qatar or Saudi and have secure high volume logistics to there and sufficient sea lift already in the Gulf to get back and forth to Kharg.
IF they are doing boots on the ground then maybe base and build up in UAE or Oman and take Qeshm Island?? Amphibs can still be used and its close to the carriers outside the Gulf. And simpler to do an extraction if things go pear shaped Shorter distances to deal with fer sure.
And, pissed off Gulf States. are any of the relevant ones going to agree to host the US troops and provide ongoing basing and logistic support for an invasion of Iran??
If the US wanted to go it alone i cant see any other viable assault route other than landing East of the Straight and ……..no, wouldn’t work without a major supply fleet and actual armored division level of troops.
Can someone do the world a favor and put Trump on a broken escalator to take him out of the picture??
I cant see any good options for using ground troops in Iran, only bad, worse and maybe less worse ones.
Kirsdarke – Yes, we use twice as much diesel as Petrol in Australia. But in normal circumstances Petrol and Diesel are usually priced very similarly at the servo. As recently as mid-December they were the same price. Now there is 63 cent a litre difference.
This is largely due to differences in International demand.
Redbridge poll:
– Labor 32, Green 13, One Nation 29, Coalition 17, Other 9
How that ends up is very hard to see, assuming that it actually happens.
If we assume that One Nation preferences split 22-7 in favour of the Coalition and that Green preferences 11-2 in favour of Labor, that gets Labor to 50% 2PP. Labor just needs 3 of the 9 ‘other’ to get to 53%, a very comfortable win. Leakage of 1 or 2 from Coalition preferences would push it even higher. Then we have “other”. Maybe that now largely comprises Teal and community independents, given that One Nation may have absorbed most of the remaining RWNJ vote. So maybe 5 or more of the “other” 9 vote ends up with Labor.