The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov finds One Nation only one point shy of the vote it recorded in the thick of the Liberals’ early February leadership crisis, recording 27% of the primary vote with Labor down one to 29%, the Coalition steady on 19% and the Greens steady on 13%. One Nation also records its best result yet on the two-party preferred measure against Labor, with the latter leading 53-47, in from 55-45 a fortnight ago. Labor’s lead over the Coalition narrows from 55-45 to 54-46. The poll was conducted from last Thursday through to yesterday from a sample size unspecified – I will hopefully be able to provide further detail later today.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down one-and-a-half points to 27% with the Coalition up by the same amount to 25.5%. One Nation and the Greens were each up a point, to 23.5% and 13.5% respectively. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition narrows from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52-48 to 51-49 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1664.
I think that Trump’s vision for Kharg Island is Marine landing (from V22 Ospreys; parachutes are passé), flag raising photo opportunity (Iwo Jima), Iranian surrender, declare victory, home by Wednesday.
And we’ll all have cheap fuel by Friday.
Who can balme Ukraine for doing this, to try to at least offset some of the advantage Russia gets from the US/Israel-Iran War in higher oil revenues and diminished arms deliveries to Ukraine? Not to mention Iran’s substantial military support for Russia’s murderous assaults upon Ukraine:
“Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy drums up defence agreements with Gulf states on countering missiles and drones:
Ukraine leader says signs with Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with one to come with the United Arab Emirates, as Iran presses aerial campaign against neighbours. What we know on day 1,495”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/29/ukraine-war-briefing-zelenskyy-drums-up-defence-agreements-with-gulf-states-on-countering-missiles-and-drones
Murray Watt on Sky earlier today – might be a new line of attack:
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/watt/transcripts/interview-andrew-clennell-sky-news-sunday-agenda-2
NathanA:
Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 6:30 pm
Ha! If someone wrote a screenplay about this mob, it would be rejected as being so far over the top that no one would believe it. With the passage of time, however, the screenplay will be turned into a film and will win the Best Picture Oscar. This period in US politics will be judged by historians as the very worst since it came of age 250 years ago.
I suspect there may be an outbreak of “imaginary heel spurs’ amongst the American soldiers who have been told they will be invading Irans kharg island.
Whatever became of Nadia who was doing such a great job coordinating the incoming polls?
New Republikon poll out for Hungary, election only 2 weeks away now.
(Republikon being Independent/Opposition aligned, taken from 23-26 March, compared with their last one on 12-17 February)
Fidesz (Orban’s lot): 40% (+1)
Tisza (Opposition): 49% (+2)
Our Homeland (Agrarian nazis): 5% (-1)
Others: 6% (-2)
Good to know Jane’s still alive, I was starting to worry.
Bystander @ #2007 Sunday, March 29th, 2026 – 8:01 pm
Another woman who decided this place was far too toxic and left.
And this is how to stop Russia from profiting from these skyrocketing global fuel prices:
“Russia announces gasoline export ban as Ukrainian strikes hammer oil infrastructure”
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-announces-gasoline-export-ban-as-ukrainian-strikes-hammer-oil-infrastructure/
Kos Samaras comments on his new Redbridge poll.
https://www.facebook.com/kosmos.samaras/posts/pfbid02vPr5woTcZ6WxxEueNbcbbb3YcQKLF2gR9LgeeJBDp1FfVEoC7WJ2czBnYw7ufNBsl
Kos Samaras
New RedBridge/Accent Research poll. March 23–27. After the commencement of the fuel crisis.
The Coalition has recorded its lowest primary vote in our polling series. 17%. Down another two points. One Nation is at 29%. Labor vote steady.
One Nation is now twelve points ahead of the Coalition that has governed Australia for the majority of the post-war era. In polling numbers, One Nation is now the Opposition. The numbers say so. The geography says so. The demographics say so.
On the fuel crisis: the vast majority of Australians we surveyed blame Donald Trump. This is significant. It means the economic pain is being sheeted home to someone the Coalition has been reluctant to publicly confront, except Andrew Hastie. That silence is costing them.
The realignment is not coming. It is here. The question now is whether the Coalition survives as a meaningful political force or whether it completes its transformation into a third party trailing a movement it helped create.
More details below.
Kos also made an interesting point comparing UK and Aus greens. Basically what’s helped drive the greens vote in the UK (on top of the clusterfuck that is starmer) is that UK greens members know how to, and often are, working class. Threading the needle with socially conservative voters who nonetheless support the core values of a more egalitarian economy.
Not exactly wrong that Australian greens have a cliche of over educated white collar inner city dwellers by some
Ozblog: Gas giant Santos has sent an early shipment of crude oil to a Victorian refinery to help ease Australia’s fuel crisis, which was sparked by the war in Iran.
Santos said on Sunday it has brought forward part of a 575,000-barrel Cooper Basin crude parcel by about a month for delivery to Viva Energy, which owns and operates the Geelong refinery in Victoria.
This means the Geelong refinery can now produce the maximum possible amount of petrol and diesel after deferring planned maintenance. Viva Energy chief executive Scott Wyatt said the Geelong refinery has been running at “maximum rates since the recent events in the Middle East with a focus on maximising diesel production”.
Newspoll says labor lowest point since election.
Interest rate rise stuffed them.
Newspoll Federal
Primary: ALP 31 (-1) ON 26 (-1) L/NP 21 (+1) GRN 12 (+1) OTH 10 (0)
Pref PM: Albanese 44 (-1) Taylor 36 (-1)
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-liberals-up-one-nation-plateaus-as-labor-dips-amid-iran-war-fuel-crisis/news-story/683c727a9e67a4f4fe8640440e44f3b1
No TPP provided
“Core support for Anthony Albanese’s Labor government has hit its lowest mark since last year’s federal election, as the Prime Minister battles to manage an escalating cost-of-living crisis and economic headwinds fuelled by Donald Trump’s war in Iran.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian revealed that Labor’s primary vote has plunged to 31 per cent, down from 36 per cent in November last year and 34.6 per cent at the election.”
And to justify a certain Libs peace talks;
“Asked whether they approved or disapproved of US military action against Iran, 72 per cent of voters said they disapproved (including 50 per cent who strongly disapproved) compared with 23 per cent who approved and 5 per cent who said they didn’t know.
On the question of whether Australia should join allied nations in supporting the US to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for international shipping, 63 per cent of voters opposed sending naval vessels, while 30 per cent supported it, and 7 per cent didn’t know.”
“The Newspoll, which included a sample size of 1232 voters and was conducted between Monday and Thursday last week, showed the Coalition’s primary vote rising to 21 per cent, with One Nation dropping a point to 26 per cent and the Greens lifting to 12 per cent.
Mr Albanese’s net approval rating fell further into negative territory, with 39 per cent of voters satisfied with his performance, 57 per cent dissatisfied and 4 per cent uncommitted. The Labor leader’s net approval rating of minus-18 compared to Angus Taylor’s minus-7, with 35 per cent of voters satisfied with the Opposition Leader’s performance, 42 per cent dissatisfied and 23 per cent uncommitted.
The Labor leader maintained an 8 per cent lead over Mr Taylor on who voters rank as the Better Prime Minister, with 44 per cent backing Mr Albanese and 36 per cent endorsing the Liberal leader.
Ahead of Monday’s national cabinet meeting to discuss the fuel crisis, two special Newspoll questions revealed overwhelming disapproval by a majority of voters against the US war against Iran and the deployment of Australian naval vessels to the Strait of Hormuz.
Asked whether they approved or disapproved of US military action against Iran, 72 per cent of voters said they disapproved (including 50 per cent who strongly disapproved) compared with 23 per cent who approved and 5 per cent who said they didn’t know.
On the question of whether Australia should join allied nations in supporting the US to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for international shipping, 63 per cent of voters opposed sending naval vessels, while 30 per cent supported it, and 7 per cent didn’t know.
The Albanese government has received no formal request from the US to provide military support.
The Newspoll showed that more than two-thirds of every age group disapproved of the US military action in Iran. One Nation voters were more likely to support the war in Iran, ahead of Liberal, Labor and Greens voters. Men are twice as likely to approve of the military action (30 per cent) as women (16 per cent).”
About margin-of-error then.
Probably as good as expected for Labor at the moment what with things as they are at the moment worldwide, and with the fuel crisis.
The Greens again MOE movement at best.
Why is the country’s longest serving minor party not doing better in an era when both major parties are on the nose?
This is a failure for the Greens who have not shown they can rise to the moment.
Plenty of polling tonight, all telling much the same story, Labor around 30, LNP around 20, Greens around 12-13 and One Nation on too many
It’s probably a fair point re the Greens and blue collar workers, even if we’re the best friends of the unions these days. We need some plumbers running for us
Greens got an all time high vote a few weeks back in SA.
Both polls today showed vote going up.
Only interest, is the UK vote situation slowly unfolding here?
Mark’s look says it all.. he knows it’s over.. Not sure why Meta stock only feel 8% on these cases.. I assume they are appealable, however Meta is in the sights of governments around the world.. a fall of 50%+ wouldn’t surprise. the more it falls the better..
PP cheering for the Greens, I’m worried lol
@Confessions at 8:50pm
One reason is that probably the Greens just can’t adapt to the average modern voter, of which their conversations likely resemble this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZYgozCTfKc
pp’s a
closetbunker Green.Confessionssays:
Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 8:06 pm
Bystander @ #2007 Sunday, March 29th, 2026 – 8:01 pm
Whatever became of Nadia who was doing such a great job coordinating the incoming polls?
Another woman who decided this place was far too toxic and left.
__________________________________
That’s one way of putting it. Another way would be simply: Omar.
Even on Newspoll
The federal lib/nats combined primary vote swing against is 10.8% from the 2025 federal election
Labor primary vote swing against was 3.6% , if this occurred on 2028 federal election day
Labor increases Majority
Kirsdarke, thats not… that inaccurate I guess.
On another note, I would note that for those rubbishing the lack of growth from the Greens, Labors not exactly showing a healthy trajectory at this point…
And again, this is before 5 plus interest rate and the continued flow on effects from the clusterfuck that Labor came out strongly for (and which the vast majority of Australians do not in Iran).
Miskal
Did you see the top issues as chosen by the Redbridge poll participants ?
You may notice that the Iran War, Aukus and our relations with Israel and the USA do not rate in the top 10. Could be why the Greens are stuck in the polls.
“The realignment is not coming. It is here. The question now is whether the Coalition survives as a meaningful political force or whether it completes its transformation into a third party trailing a movement it helped create.”
Maybe implies a parallel with US politics? Repuglicans to TeaBaggers Party, to MAGA …… Repuglicans effectively cease to be.
The Australian emphasising everything except the two party preferred, so that probably still looks bad for their side.
I don’t think it’s all that profitable to talk all that long about the Aus Greens. Fundamentally, more than 9 out of 10 voters do not think they are the solution to any economic issues, and that is before the heat of an election where real policy scrutiny could be applied.
But their position might be worse for the 2028 election – if the upcoming budget does indeed have changes on negative gearing and capital gains taxes as rumoured, but nothing on migration, it will be the party associated with measures that didn’t help on housing as promised, only punished a lot of people with higher taxes. It’ll be like 2013 all over again, hence why again, Labor needs to do something about migration before end 2027.
6 months ago Hastie had his tongue deep in Trump’s arse, breaking with the convention of not attacking Australian politicians in regards to foreign affairs, to write a fawning letter to Trump urging Trump to smack down Albo during their meeting.
Maybe his flirtation with the cookers, that ended ingloriously with his being labelled a traitor and pro-zionist Israeli shill by the far-right, getting his office vandalised by Nazis in the wake of the antisemitism bill has shaken him.
Also he looks like a giant nerd in his nerd glasses. Four eyes nerd Hastie.
He’s also done well to hide his god-bothering, creationist, moronic anti-scientific beliefs.
sprocket, the Iran war leads directly to the current surge in the cost of living in multiple facets.
Pretending support for Iran has nothing to do with Cost of Living is absurd.
And again, by the very metrics on this website, Labor PV has been heading south at a slow but rather stable rate. Even 2PP is wobbly, and mostly held up by the absolute clusterfuck happening on the right wing of the australian political landscape.
How will Labors vote look once interest rates are 5+ (or hell, 6 as some are saying by June).
Kirs:
That is hilarious!
Labor 2PP ~ 32 + 0.25*26 + 0 + .85*12 + .55*10 = 54.2 —> round to 54.
MOE (sample 1232) ~ 2.8%.
Not sure why Meta stock only feel 8% on these cases..
———————————
Because the market knows the billionaire c&nts running these platforms can still have a very profitable business model without being evil. Thats what makes them such evil f’ing c&nts.
F I hate them. They should be facing criminal charges.
Leroy says:
Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 8:46 pm
One Nation is now twelve points ahead of the Coalition that has governed Australia for the majority of the post-war era. In polling numbers, One Nation is now the Opposition. The numbers say so. The geography says so. The demographics say so.
On the fuel crisis: the vast majority of Australians we surveyed blame Donald Trump. This is significant. It means the economic pain is being sheeted home to someone the Coalition has been reluctant to publicly confront, except Andrew Hastie. That silence is costing them.
The conclusion to be drawn from this is that political pollsters are responsible for the herd mentality now destroying Australia’s democracy.. that herd mentality is one of following ON mindlessly.
Why not ask the idiot voters to name 5 ON policies & how ON intends to implement them.. Pawleen couldn’t even answer that one
I wonder in general if people are surprised if the rise of One Nation is genuine or is it a still just a protest vote.
Sure Miskal, sure. Maybe next time.
Kevin Bonham: Newspoll ALP 31 L-NP 21 ON 26 Grn 12 others 10
My 2PP estimate 53.8 to ALP (-0.3)
vs ON 53.3 to ALP (+0.2)
New thread.
Sceptic, the belief that political pollsters are destroying Australia’s democracy is just a kind of psychosis that emerges from hanging around on pollbludger for too long, it’s not real.
It’s quite rare to see satellite imagery of damage to US assets. Here is a rather good report on damage to US air defences in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and elsewhere in the UAE. It indicates very good targetting by Iran. Toward the end of the video they address the difficulty in getting timely and accurate satellite imagery on damage to US facilities. This report – from yesterday – is about two weeks later than the equivalent reports on US/Israeli damage to Iran. There’s a link in the description to the older stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1jcwvzbUQw
I do wonder what it would take for the Greens to move on their economic policies. They dont seem a very pragmatic party, but I guess this is how they keep their existing vote. But the centre right was there for the taking.
Borewar scribbled,”Those arguing for free everything inevitably are those who always use free everything.”
Stated like a true Tory. And just what would all those free things be? idiot!
Kirsdarke @ #2018 Sunday, March 29th, 2026 – 8:46 pm
Well within margin of error on all percentage measures. This means that the changes are INSIGNIFICANT, ie NOT WORTH COMMENTING ON. All of the commentators’ blatherings are meaningless waffle.