Draft boundaries have been published for a redistribution of South Australia’s federal electoral boundaries, following less than a month on from Tasmanian and Australian Capital Territory drafts together with a Queensland state redistribution that have all unhelpfully coincided with the South Australian state election. Below are my estimates of party vote shares on the proposed new boundaries. A row below the bold results for each seats shows the changes from the 2025 election result, where changes there have been — so Adelaide, Hindmarsh and Sturt are being left as is. The changes elsewhere have been fairly modest as well. It is proposed that the regional seat of Grey be renamed O’Donoghue, which is not reflected in the table.
I neglected to comment on the ACT redistribution proposal when it was published a fortnight ago, but the changes are of minor significance, as is usually the case in the ACT when the number of seats doesn’t change. I will add my revised margins to this post if and when I get time.
I wish I could say being in a border suburb was fun, shunted around again! At least Sharkie’s okay.
Renaming Grey after Lowitja O’Donoghue was a surprise but a welcomed change as Sir George Grey was always a person who was more closely tied to New Zealand than Australia. The AEC seems like it is going in a direction where seats should be directly named after people who made significant contributions to Australia rather than those who had short stints in the country like John Franklin.
O’Donoghue expanding into Northern Adelaide raises some concern about the size of this electorate and potential community of interest violations. However, I understand that the expansion of Grey was necessary because Spence was over quota; hopefully an expansion of Parliament comes so rural MPs aren’t burdened with extremely large electorates.
O’Donoghue – when you want to name a seat after an Indigenous person without the usual suspects complaining it’s woke or DEI or too hard to say or whatever, or indeed realising it is named for an Indigenous person at all. Good idea.
The state electorates that make up ex-Grey look to have gone about ON 32 Lib 21, so a possible ON win.
Barker around 29/29, probable Lib retain. Spence 31/8, ALP still OK, but at risk.
Ah, right, I forgot that SA was due for a federal redistribution. Somehow I thought it had already been done last term, but that was just for Victoria, NSW, WA and NT.
My aunt’s family also lives in Aberfoyle Park and looks like they’ll be moved to Mayo as well.
Is South Australia the largest Irish ancestry in the country? The fact they are now naming a seat after an Irish Australian and the fact the former state opposition leader Speirs (Who i Believe is either Irish or Scottish) and the fact that I know so many people from Adelaide with Irish roots. Is the the largest Irish population in Australia?
Jokes aside. Why did they wait to after the state election to publish the draft boundaries? Was the commission too busy with the election or is it for technical reason?
@Daniel T
This redistribution is being done by the federal-based AEC instead of the state-based ECSA and runs by its own timetable.
That said, they probably initially set the timetable so that the draft redistribution release would take place after the set date of the state election, so as to not interfere with things.
Grey renamed as “O’Donaghue”? Such a rash departure from established nomenclature is an offense to the sensibilities of any psephologist, professional or otherwise. I hereby voice my most strenuous objection!
How will the good burgers of Port Pirie ever recover from such unwarranted calamity?
The apostrophe would bother me, if we didn’t already have O’Connor.
I think SA had a lower proportion of Irish settlers in the mix than the other mainland states, and probably more from southern England.
There is an appropriate irony that O’Donoghue will be permanently a ON seat and whoever occupies it will be totally opposed to everything Lowitja O’Donoghue ever stood for. Which is the only good thing to arise from that seat being renamed O’Donoghue.
Why is it showing Centre Alliance with 1.4% of the vote in Kingston when they haven’t run a candidate in that seat?
That’s from booths transferred into Kingston from Mayo, where Sharkie ran.