The Herald Sun has a Freshwater Strategy poll of state voting intention in Victoria, conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1062, showing the Coalition on 30%, up three on the last such poll a month ago; Labor on 27%, down one; One Nation on 20%, down three; and the Greens on 14%, up one. A respondent-allocated two-party preferred result has the Coalition leading 52-48 after a 50-50 result last time. Liberal leader Jess Wilson has a net approval rating of plus 18, up from plus 15, while Jacinta Allan is at minus 32, up from minus 33, while Wilson’s lead as preferred premier shifts from 46-30 to 47-31.
A theme of the further questions is the unpopularity of Allan and the advisability of Labor replacing her, including a tied two-party result in the event that Allan made way for “someone else”. Twenty-six per cent said a change would make them more likely to vote Labor compared with 10% for less likely. Prospective alternative leaders Ben Carroll and Gabrielle Williams both recorded minus four net approval ratings, with 19% saying they would prefer Carroll be leader and 10% Williams, the rest presumably favouring Allan or indifferent.
I think if internal polling shows that Jacinta Allan will lose her own seat, that’s what will encourage her to step down.
And I think any unknown will perform better.
A leadership spill won’t be helpful because it will remove a point of difference between the two parties.
But Allan announcing a retirement, and literally anyone else as leader, will probably save seats (and government).
Daniel Tsays:
Tuesday, March 24, 2026 at 9:43 pm
Nobody should listen to Kos Samaras. He has backed Allan 100% of the time and sees no fault in this current government.
_______________________
He couldn’t be any worse than Raf Epstein on 774.
His Labor barracking is way over the top.
The ABC are meant to be impartial.
I have spend decades campaigning for the ALP. Very experienced and knowledgeable. Have observed by talking to neighbours and friends that Jacinta needs to retire and allow another MP to take her place. My large number of community contacts, including ALP members have informed me of this as well. If you have been in parliament for decades you will eventually become aware the time is up. Unfortunately the electorate are not supportive of her and the main reason is the fact that she insisted to built the Chelsea to Box Hill underground train line, despite the growing state debt. Public school teachers, principals and staff are very much aggrieved with the low salaries and public school funding. So are many others in the community who are aggrieved on a variety of issues as always. But this time the support base is revolting against the ALP Premier. The state government is not disciplined to cut wasteful spending and cuts public schools and health, the voting public does not agree with the policy. Public debt and privatisation of services will cause a society to become poorer. The other major issue is mental health which is a disaster, causing police, health workers, teachers, parents and members of the public harm and even death. The ALP has totally failed to sort out the mess the Liberal governments made. People with mental health issues need care in institutions to ensure they are wandering around causing harm to the public. There are other major issues such as the fire services disputes on trucks and CFA organisation, the Big Build blowouts, the list is endless.
Georges, for a die hard Laborite you’re pretty en pointe with the LNP talking points!
Wasting your time here mate. This is psephology not campaigning.
Ehh? The Libs have been in government for 4 years of the last 27. This ain’t federal parliament.
OK, I realise that’s a bodgy copy ‘n’ paste job from the email your Liberal handler sent you, and neither of you noticed the missing word “not”, but I got a laugh out of it.
If this is a snapshot of the quality of the Liberal campaign, Labor might have a better chance than anyone expects.
My opinion isnt going to change, whether this will be anywhere close to being right or not , have to wait to the 2026 state election
Opinion polling is a guide,
Whether its federal or state elections
Lib/nats do not win seats if their combined primary votes decreases , if the opinion polling is accurate currently there is a 4% swing against the lib/nats and , likely more if one nation is not being over estimated .
Recent Elections show Lib/nats do not get into majority government with a combined primary vote under 40% , and with the lib /nats combined primary vote heading towards under 20%, if one nation is getting the swing from the Lib/nats combined primary vote . There is no pathway for Lib/nats for any form of government .
Jess Wilson is more of a chance of losing her seat , than Jacinta Allen if she is still the candidate , she will still be the member , if she’s not Labor still retain it,
In seat of Bendigo east
Jacinta Allen Labor primary vote 48.30%
yes there will be a swings against her , like in majority of labor safe seat , for labor to lose
Whether its National party or one nation candidate , either candidate primary vote would have to get most of the swing against Labor primary vote , and their primary vote close to 40%
Unlikely to happen, one nation and national party candidates are going to take primary votes off each other
Also can not see enough labor voters changing to National party or one nation
where in Jess Wilson seat of kew liberal party primary vote was around 43% ,any swing against the liberal party primary vote , makes it harder for liberal party to retain.
I still do not think Victorians have forgiven the federal lib/nats , in the way Victoria was treat during covid vaccines , and also the Victorian state lib/nats are following a similar path as the federal lib/nats .
for example union royal commission, and aligning with one nation .
Aligning with One Nation will kill them off. Kennett has royally screwed them in the Teal seats.
And again we hear this talk of the LNP (and now White Nation) winning the outer suburban seats…….
Interesting times. Politics as entertainment got us Trump. Let’s not fall down the same rabbit hole. How does a party get a quarter of the vote without policies or credible candidates?
Lisa Chesters is the Federal Member for East Bendigo.
She has been a good rep for the seat, and yet she nearly lost it to Andrew Lethlean.
If he decides to run against Jacinta Allan, he will win it this time around.
Thats my take.
Changing the leader is extremely unlikely to change their fortunes in fact I’d argue it would worsen it as you might get a short term sugar hit and Labor ending up in the same place again. Brand Labor is damaged in the growth corridors, Western side of the Yarra and the regions which took a massive hit in the suburbs during the lockdowns and the cancelation of the state commonwealth games which we are staring to see the long term ramifications of it. What everyone keeps forgetting Labor is going against history to get a 4th term with this government also being longest on record 12 years, this is an incredibly difficult ask to get a 4th term.
No one gives a crap about the comm games, apart from those people who financially benefit from them.
I was happy they were cancelled, but pissed off that we had to pay compo. It’s a rort quite frankly.
I daresay people care more about the Teachers pay dispute.
Yes I did make the error of leaving out the “not” in the mental health comment. I probably will end up participating in the fight against the rightwing parties, but like many ALP supporters I am frustrated at the obsession with the Big Build. Society needs strong public services in health and education, they are the priority. Mental health is included. Just look around some of the suburbs like Box Hill, Ringwood, Frankston etc, we are starting to look like the USA. And no I am not a liberal stooge. The Liberal governments destroyed mental health, cutback public schooling and health, privatised gas, electricity and government printing services. However the ALP has failed to reverse those policies entirely, mental health is at the same level as during the Kennett government days. But like many of the old Labor class I am angry of the lost opportunities.
Monty, Tuesday, 5:44pm:
A point of order: the SA Voice to Parliament was announced immediately after Labor won the 2022 election, and the bill establishing it was passed six months before the national referendum. It was a “watch us lead the country again” thing, not a “screw you, bigots”.
Weird how if a longstanding Labor person emerges on here and decries what Labor are doing, and says what they should do, they must automatically be an Opposition plant!
Does that sum up how the Labor leadership treat constructive criticism from their base, and shows why they’re stuck in Victoria, or is PB site an aberration?
Interesting times. Politics as entertainment got us Trump. Let’s not fall down the same rabbit hole. How does a party get a quarter of the vote without policies or credible candidates?
You answered your own question, MABWM. ‘Politics as entertainment’. Or, more precisely, politics as Reality TV. Plus a relentless shovelling of social media at people, highlighting grievances and only radical solutions, the ramifications of which are never spelt out. Learn how to tickle the amygdala with dopamine and your almost all the way there. Add one-sided media that give you tummy tickle interviews and a soapbox, make it free to the poorest regional and rural electorates, and bingo! your reach and popularity soars along with it.
Victorians have already endorsed SRL what – twice now? I don’t think Labor is going to suddenly lose the election because of SRL. Allen is at risk because she didn’t win the election campaign, she inherited the position. In a leader dominated system this is a risk. Doesn’t guarantee a loss though by any means.
I’m really sceptical of polls and received wisdom. I heard it all last year, how Victoria was going to swing to the Liberals. I heard it at the previous state election. I think the state election before that, too. I especially downrate any online/social media commentary by interstate observers who are absolutely convinced that the Victorian government is on the nose, and I think anyone who thinks they have identified how bad Dan Andrews is without having ever voted in an election in which he was a player must reconsider. There has been a campaign to discredit Melbourne and Victoria since covid, an attempt to bring some of the anti-urban sentiment the conservatives have thrived off in Europe and America to Australia. (So far it hasn’t worked out for them, but they might accidentally win the jewel in the crown.)
Despite that, I by no means think that Labor is a shoo-in. If times were normal, they’d probably lose this election.
This election will be entirely new. The question won’t really be whether Allen or Wilson win government, but if Labor is returned or if something new happens. The Liberals have burnt the bridges that the Liberals have burnt. One Nation is encroaching on new territory and may win up big. As the election draws closer, minds will be drawn to a new question they haven’t been drawn to before – and which South Australians didn’t have to ask – do you want yet another Labor government, or do you want to see what happens if One Nation gets in (whether or not with the Liberals)? If the answer is One Nation, this is going to be a new thing even amongst One Nation watchers, because they will be anchored to diverse growing new and young family urban seats, but the holders won’t have done a huge amount to win the seats so they won’t necessarily act like they represent diverse growing new and young family urban seats, many will act like they represent Pauline Hanson.
I suspect we’ll get cold feet. A lot of seats have to fall before you go from Labor government to a One Nation/Liberal coalition. But perhaps we’ll finally get some of those non-teal Fowler-esque independents that are supposed to win a seat in Victoria any time now and perhaps we’ll get a hung parliament with no clear path to government for anyone.
@Felix at 7:32pm
The Anti-Labor parties in Victoria still remain extremely butthurt that they couldn’t get their East-West Link back in the Baillieu-Napthine days so they’re very keen on sabotaging the Suburban Rail Link project in the same way.
I don’t think Georges is fooling anyone… Even if he’s right about Jacinta, the anti-SRL spiel is straight from Libs HQ.
Looks like:
Definitely True 6
Probably True 1
Probably False 1
Definitely False 6
7 false keys for opposition 2PP win.
Regardless of any other factors of “the keys”, they assume a straight up 2-horse race, yeah?
The Vic election will be an absolute mess. Labor’s best trump card is that ON and the Libs will cannibalise each other.
Something people haven’t mentioned enough is the risk that Jess Wilson the Lib has of losing votes to the Teal (and local mayor) Sophie Torney if the Libs are struggling. Wilson also isn’t particularly charismatic either… She’s young and all, but she comes across like a private school debating captain who lives in a comfortable bubble separate to the rest of society (because that’s what she is).
At this point, the outlook is pretty dire in every direction. If ON can peel off seats from Labor in the outer suburbs (rather than just splitting the right wing vote), then you might end up with blocs of Greens and ON members being the kingmakers and 4 years of a coaltion of the damned (regardless whether Labor or the Libs are at the helm) trying to keep a stable administration together. An attempt at a ON-Liberal coalition would be an absolute clown show if that came to pass, the defections and backstabbing would start before Christmas.
Expatsays:
Friday, March 27, 2026 at 12:59 pm
“Regardless of any other factors of “the keys”, they assume a straight up 2-horse race, yeah?”
I guess you could say that.
Just posted them since they give a general idea of government vs opposition support, and they’re fun to look at.
Sorry if that sounded like a dig at you (and the keys), it was a genuine question.
Overall though, I think we’ve gone through the looking glass on 2pp in Victoria now. It will be ugly for Labor, but if it’s even vaguely close, there’s every chance they could still hold power by virtue of the Libs and ON collapsing on each other and us having to wait weeks for seats with massive preference sprays to be counted.
D-Day for Deeming. Stand by for fireworks!
Looks like Deeming has lost the top spot on the pre-selection.
It’s over!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/29/victorian-liberal-party-moira-deeming-preselection
Moira Deeming loses spot on Victorian Liberal election ballot after preselection standoff against moderate candidate
Moderate-backed Dinesh Gourisetty nominated for upper house seat
If you go looking for info on Moira’s replacement… (2019 article)
https://www.sbs.com.au/language/punjabi/en/article/indian-restaurant-fined-25-000-for-filthy-unsafe-food/7r72j09zi
The owner of an Indian restaurant has been ordered to pay $25,000 in fine and costs over filthy and unsafe food practices.
Dinesh Gourisetty, the owner of Indi Hots Catering in Hoppers Crossing in Melbourne’s west pleaded guilty to eleven charges relating to cleanliness and food handling practices.
The guy who beat Moira Deeming has withdrawn!
https://bsky.app/profile/kevinbonham.bsky.social/post/3miajk5im6k2t
Maybe not!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-30/moira-deeming-liberal-mp-dinesh-gourisetty-election/106510894
Dinesh Gourisetty has denied withdrawing his candidacy, one day after winning preselection for the western metropolitan region.
Reports surfaced that Mr Gourisetty had made the move after it was revealed he provided a character reference in support of a man convicted of grooming and sexually assaulting a child.
Mr Gourisetty replaced Moira Deeming on the party ticket for the Western Metropolitan Region after a preselection battle on Sunday.