The Herald Sun has a Freshwater Strategy poll of state voting intention in Victoria, conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1062, showing the Coalition on 30%, up three on the last such poll a month ago; Labor on 27%, down one; One Nation on 20%, down three; and the Greens on 14%, up one. A respondent-allocated two-party preferred result has the Coalition leading 52-48 after a 50-50 result last time. Liberal leader Jess Wilson has a net approval rating of plus 18, up from plus 15, while Jacinta Allan is at minus 32, up from minus 33, while Wilson’s lead as preferred premier shifts from 46-30 to 47-31.
A theme of the further questions is the unpopularity of Allan and the advisability of Labor replacing her, including a tied two-party result in the event that Allan made way for “someone else”. Twenty-six per cent said a change would make them more likely to vote Labor compared with 10% for less likely. Prospective alternative leaders Ben Carroll and Gabrielle Williams both recorded minus four net approval ratings, with 19% saying they would prefer Carroll be leader and 10% Williams, the rest presumably favouring Allan or indifferent.
Time for Jacinta Allan to resign as Premier.
Why freshwater is in the bin ,lib/nats propaganda media units
Where is the 20% for One Nation coming from according to this Labor has dropped 10%
Lib/nats 0%
from the 2022 federal election
Kos was saying dumping Jacinta would make things worse. I cant see how it can be worse.
Amazing that it is still only 52-48, with a quarter competent opposition it would be 62-38
hypothetically on this so called opinion poll
Made an error in earlier post
Lib/nats declined by 4% not 0%
Even with a primary vote of 27%
Labor primary vote is around the same level as
Victorian Liberal party primary vote which according to this poll declined from the 2022 Victorian state election so has the lib /nats combined primary vote of 30% , which was around 34%
Labor Majority still my pick
If those are the primaries its way closer than 52-48. Respondent based preferences are never right come election day. Not even sure the LNP would be even in front. Last election preferences alot more accurate.
In regards this “polling” for 9 Entertainment, imagine the anti union (and a 27% salary increase over 4 years, so 7% per annum versus the RBA target rate for inflation of 2% to 3% where we see the actions of the RBA to achieve that) media response IF there was a Coalition government?
Instead the 27% is not mentioned – only the disruption (down to the government offering 17%, again not mentioned)
And of course, the attacks on Allan as unpopular – the usual tactic of the Liberal media (Rudd, Gillard, Rudd anyone and the character assassinations?)
And Andrews of course, who they still attack
Previous election preferences aren’t so accurate when one of the minor parties goes from 0.28% to 20%.
Scott your assessment of Victoria is deluded. The ALP is going to be smashed all over Victoria.
One Nation will eat Labor across Rural and Regional Victoria (and in many parts of Outer Suburban Melbourne) and the Coalition cross-preferencing with One Nation (along with preferences from Family First, Libertarian Party and other minor right parties) will also eat the ALP across Outer Suburban and Middle Suburban with some impact in Inner Melbourne. The majority of the 9% Others vote comprises the minor right parties.
The combined primary vote of the Coalition, One Nation and minor right parties in Victoria according to this poll is approx 55%-56%. I fully expect the Vic ALP primary to be closer to 20% rather than 27% (maybe even below 20%) by the time of the November state election.
The Victorian ALP is hated across the state. The Victorian Govt is bankrupt and corrupt.
I see ON doing big business in seats like Sunbury, Lara, Weribee and Sydenham that are generally unloseable to the Liberals. And the Greens making big gains in the inner city. Labor can kiss Footscray goodbye (it’ll probably end up the Greens’ safest seat by 2030 so probably that’s goodbye for good) and probably also Pascoe Vale.
I can’t see them having majority government but minority could happen.
Texas
Labor primary vote will be in the 30%’s
The general consensus is that Allan has to go among Labor types I have been speaking to. Just hope the Parliamentary Party Room has the guts to plug the trigger after agreeing on the replacement.
Texas @ #9 Tuesday, March 24th, 2026 – 11:40 am
This statement was brought to you by the Victorian delusional Party.
We speak with authority for all the voters in Victoria because we know what you are thinking and you don’t but trust us we know better.
Written spoken and authorised by a Herald Sun bot.
Once again like the feds, progressive labor needs to go further to the right given the economy/Debt in Victoria etc which will mean as in this poll Greens vote will increase, labor will shed votes left and also to One nation on the right via the Mortgage belt..
Late this year could be a four way fight,on both left and right side like UK etc.
Keep an eye on the Green vote.
On those poll numbers, a lot of ON preferences won’t be distributed because they’ll finish in the top two. The same will be true of a fair chunk of Greens preferences.
The result will be a 2PP that’s mostly meaningless, except for a few one-eyed barrackers who want to justify why their side deserves to rule the state with about three out of every ten votes.
Whatever concerns one may have about Freshwater’s conservative bias, they weren’t any different in that regard in the last poll they did, so the 2% 2PP swing is still relevant. However since One Nation’s 20% likely includes them running up the board in Nats seats, there’s almost no shot the Libs would get a majority on these numbers, especially with the unfavourable pendulum.
SA also shows that Labor can rely on much stronger prefs from the Greens than either conservative party can from each other, especially so in Vic where a number of polls have showed Liberal to One Nation flows as being quite a bit lower than other states. I concur that Labor is probably losing Footscray & Northcote to the Greens, though they might well pick up Richmond or even Melbourne in return.
It’s time go Jacinta and resign as premier you are an absolute rabble at present time if you don’t hand in you’re resignation before the VIC state election in November her chances and the Labor party in general faces voter anger come polling day could lead to one of the worst primary vote swings ever against the current government on election day in political history in this country absolute no doubt it is simply now Jess Wilson’s election lose and she has been flying ever since taking Liberal Party leadership from Brad Battin.
Not sure that it will be a simple task for the Liberals to replace the Allan Labor Government no matter how toxic it is – one of the nastiest pieces of work as a politican that state has ever seen Dan Andrews, managed to keep power.
Nothing to do with alleged `Character Assassinations` – if there`s one thing that`s a constant in any kind of society where there are free elections and governments, there are alway partisans who view anything that doesn`t fit their ideology as an attack. No politician escapes warranted and unwarranted criticism and harsher.
Yes, I`ll double down on my Vic Labor comments having lived in Victoria at one time tho a Croweater and I`m not an idealogue who backs a party no matter what – swinging voter here who voted independent/left independent and Green on Saturday.
Victoria has a huge population compared to SA, many more immigrants from countries that in the past had few immigrants to this country and a few other differences.
The Liberals are at the same demographic disadvantage there they were here – those voters born in the 30s/40s/50s who came from the old working class that became socially mobile through their jobs and not a university/college education in the fee paying times before Whitlam (their parents` modest incomes ruled that out) had a sizeable component who switched to Liberal. There are other demographic issues for the Liberals in SA and Victoria, too lengthy to go into here.
Electorates that have fallen to Labor like Elder a few years back and Hartley on Saturday had a sizeable demographic of those people who moved there after they could afford a middle class area. Those generations have passed or are passing rapidly. Victoria is similar in that sense.
However, as well One Nation can do in the Victorian regions (and I think they`re going to shock like they have done here), I think Victoria`s demographics that are different from ours will see less response to One Nation in city/suburban areas.
The Greens are also stronger in city/urban Victoria. They will always attract some voters who don`t align with their leftism on issues such as migration and asylum seekers/refugees and net zero but who like their commitment to environmental issues and policies such as higher education access, cheap public transportation and opportunities for the young generations.
The Victoria State Election will be an interesting ride.
The alp one out one back. That’s where you need to be at this stage in the race with zero scrutiny of the three opposition parties, Libs, Nats and their new bedmates, White Nation.
Labor will win because the middle band won’t vote for the libs and ON’s vote is all bottled up in the Nats electorates
Dutton was at 55% at the same stage, and that finished ok.
Puffery can only get you so far.
The media, including the non Murdoch Nine papers and the ABC are running with the triumph of the Hanson Cannonball Express. It comes as a shock that Hanson of Bernardi has not been declared Emperor of South Australia.
The reality is Labor lost no seats, won an additional seven and the Liberals were cannibalised by One Nation.
We shall see in November whether the press campaign against Jacinta Allen and Labor has had much of an effect. The campaign against Dan Andrews was vitriolic, along with the punditry predicting he would lose his seat and Labor would be reduced to a minority government. Andrews is so entrenched into the psyche of the right wing that they still campaign against him, apparently not noticing he has retired.
My prediction is that Labor may lose some skin but not enough to lose government. My more confident prediction is that One Nation will cannibalise both Liberal party and the National Party as in South Australia.
Grimee – Victorian ALP is hated. Labor is going to be smashed. Leftist ALP Bubble inhabitants only talk amongst themselves and have zero idea how much Victorians hate them.
It is going to be a fun and happy November night in 2026.
The laughter as Victorians watch Victorian Labor cry, wipe their eyes and throw tantrums as their corruption is exposed and they are referred to a Royal Commission into Victorian ALP corruption. Oh the laughter and joy!!!
HaHaHaHaHaHaHa
I think ON will become a natural pick for many in the western, northern and outer SE suburbs while still remaining poisonous in the inner suburban and East.
In the East it will be a choice between a party they loathe with a nice enough leader (Wilson) and a party they don’t mind with a leader they loathe (Allan).
In the inner city it will be a choice between Labor and the Greens with only competence required from the Greens to gain seats.
The regional seats will either be 3 way contests or Nat v ON, but Labor is losing everywhere.
Come on everyone, the trolling crap from both sides is pathetic. Just state your piece and don’t be a d!ck. (Looking at you Texas and Grimee)
Go to Reddit or X if you don’t want to engage with different viewpoints.
@Texas – it`s not good enough just to be the conservative opposition anymore, the Victorian Liberals are having the same issues regarding changing voter demographics as those in SA. It will only get more challenging for Liberal parties out of government to reclaim it.
The Victorian Libs are going to have to be really on point to get back in power – the shift to Labor of affluent demographics of the type who can afford to pay the kind of money for their kid`s private school education for 1 year that is the salary for 1 year of people from other demographics, is a real thing.
Not only are the old socially mobile Liberal voters who continue to be over-represented in the death notices every week representing losses of Liberal votes. So are the affluent/privileged Labor voters, some of whom work in the public service and receive well above average salaries. Not so long ago, people of their economic profile tended to vote Liberal.
There`s also the question of the different immigrant demographics – Liberals are going to have to work harder to win them over than Labor in some cases. One time immigrants from conservative social systems leaned more to the Liberals but there are now plenty who lean Labor because of the time and effort Labor has put into wooing them.
One of the advantages for the Vic Liberals is that Jacinta Allan is not seen as a `moderate`. She`s not regarded as a thug well at home with the dictators and tyrants Dan Andrews was happily photographed with on a personal enrichment visit to the PRC, but she has the taint of the toxic aspects of the Labor Govt over there.
Premier Mali is seen as a moderate although the media fandom and perception that he is someone who will naturally progress from SA to the national scene with ease is overblown. He`s done some great things with the opportunities offered by the end of the Covid nightmare with all its restrictions and economic horrors – a Labor Govt in power in SA during Covid probably would have lost the 2022 election. He certainly cares about our state but his negative side is the comfort with which he bypasses legitimate public criticism over actions and issues that warrant it.
However, Mali was very keen on rushing through an SA Voice to Parliament despite the fact that SA voted against the national one and there was no debate allowed among the electorate and he hasn`t got the health system to the point where people dying in ramped ambulances and on the floors of hospitals is unthinkable.
Mali won`t accept responsibility for some evidence that his Govt put the toxic algae disaster under wraps which is likely a big reason behind Environment Minister Susan Close`s resignation and he has promoted environmental vandalism in unique city parklands because he is obsessed with sporting events including ones that cause significant emissions.
Mali hasn`t made his old or new Transportation Minister take any real action against widespread fare evasion and anti-social behavior on public transportation (the 2 are definitely linked, with crime becoming very mobile due to the ease of travelling around without paying) yet proudly proclaims that the trains are back in public hands. I have yet to see any evidence this has improved the situation.
Mali also acted as if it was business as usual after the Health Minister Chris Picton leaked a confidential email from a member of the public to get back at the distraught family of a man who endured sub-standard treatment in the health system and is now dead. This was before Picton lost his own brother in tragic circumstances, so there should be no excuse-making there.
Yet Labor in SA is now in a position where it is going to be an uphill battle for any Liberal inroads in the foreseeable future. Don`t count on the Liberals being able to get rid of the Allan Labor Govt so easily.
Monty, you make some interesting points.
Thank you.
Texas, did you used to be ALABAMA?
Jacinta Allam will see who the mats and liberals put up as candidates in her seat.
If it is the nats candidate that stood at fed election. She will stand aside
That’s my take snyhoo
Oops Allan
I have read Kos Samaras perspective. Whilst his observations are generally correct, if it is more than likely she will lose her own seat, what does he think should happen in that instance?
@MABWM thanks for that.
As a voter I`ve voted for Labor, Liberal and Green candidates at different times as well as the Nick Xenophon crew and Independents/Left leaning Independents whose track record I`m familiar with. I voted Independents and Greens this time.
This SA state election I just couldn`t vote for Labor on my principles and I would have applied the same criteria to a Liberal government had they done the same. In terms of what Labor has been able to accomplish there was no challenge by the shambolic Liberal organisation and the leader controversies – why would undecided and swinging voters want that?
Victoria is similar to South Australia in that it`s not noted in general for the conservatism found in a state like Queensland. Personally I feel Labor in Victoria needs some time in the wilderness to get back to some basics including respect for the public.
But the Liberals have to get what it is that is changing their levels of support at state level and work harder on showing the electorate why they are the government in waiting.
Like all govts, the Mali one should be criticised for the reasons I listed. Like all govts the Mali one will demonstrate an arrogance after they`ve won power convincingly like they did in 2022 and now. The ineffectual, unrepresentative Indigenous Voice here is a case in point. Just about all the members were elected by the Indigenous electorate with little support and competition including those who got 10 votes.
I actually checked Yes to the national Voice referendum – I am not against initiatives like this but the crucial details and safeguards for effectiveness and action have to be there. The SA Voice was rammed through, a kind of state Labor middle finger to those who didn`t vote Yes in the national referendum and it shows.
The Voice members get paid a fair salary and expenses to participate in the business that gets done in Parliament House and represent Indigenous interests but I can`t think of one real or productive action that has come from the Voice. I suspect this is due to co-option by and deal making with the Labor Govt including Indigenous Attorney General Kyam Maher.
The most notable thing was (good on them), the two Indigenous members who went to the media to point out that Indigenous graves are contained within the parklands that will be altered including the ripping out of trees, vegetation and habitats to make way for Mali`s pet golf project – that could easily have been held at the Grange or another golf course.
Apart from that the SA public has seen no reason why the Voice was established and it`s not the public`s role to give it purpose and tangible results.
If you want more more representation of and support for Indigenous people and policies you have to take the rest of the people along with you. The Mali Govt was more intent on point proving and this is what happens just like the Allen Govt also seems to have that focus when it comes to Indigenous issues.
> Come on everyone, the trolling crap from both sides is pathetic. Just state your piece and don’t be a d!ck
hear hear!
Thank you Texas
Back to Trump land
And Python, where do you draw that opinion from?
Good insight vic. That does look like an unavoidable consideration.
While I hope he is right, I’m not sure how I feel about PP cheering for the Greens vote to go up
Victoria,
Kos Samaras is an ‘hysterical wishcasting ALP operative’ masquerading as some sort of political analyst.
He spent most of 2025 frothing himself up about some ‘mythical voting bloc of progressives, immigrants, renters, youth & deluded climate change loonies’.
He forgot about the O.N. vote creeping up.
He’s been caught with his trousers down, preferring to drop endless posts to provide comfort to labor aligned people.
Casey Briggs (ABC) made a similar fool of himself on Saturday night with his inability to note the O.N. seat pickups. He was there to provide comfort to ‘their’ remnant green audience.
Even Bowe’s computer detected 3 O.N. pick ups by late sat evening. Briggs crabwalked his way to reality late yesterday.
You can read Samaras’ drivvel if it provides comfort.
Remember, he’s ex-labor.
Green, Bonham, Bowe, and to an extent Mr Mackerras seem to know what’s going on.
Bonham must have adjusted his 2pp calculation as he had yesterdays morgan at 50.7%. Much better.
Green has literally called the Farrer byelection. Yes, a O.N. win. Check his blog. Mackerras will probably weigh in on Farrer soon too.
Big O.N. pickup looming
Hard Being Green,
The greens are excellent at attacking labor from the left.
I always place the greens above labor on my ballot paper.
Reason: to try and knock out the labor candidate. Better to have labor in minority with the greens, than standalone labor. More destabalising for labor. Ha ha.
Speaking of ‘their ABC’.
I understand the idiots are going on strike soon.
Good.
Run the ‘ABC test pattern’ for 24 hours.
Ratings will skyrocket.
@Texas:
We heard that on a loop last election campaign from The Age and the Herald Sun, let alone the Liberals, and Andrews won in a landslide, so much for being widely hated.
The haters greatly overestimate how much people agree with them.
Even the Freshwater result – and there’s plenty of reasons to consider Freshwater has a right wing house effect in its results – is a 52-48 which is not “hated across the state”, it would be a narrow victory for a right wing coalition of ON, Libs and Nats possibly even needing independents.
I know what hated across the state looks like – it looks like the Coalition result at the last two state elections, or the last Federal election.
Freshwater’s own poll suggests it’s immediately back to 50-50 if Jacinta is replaced by an empty chair, which isn’t exactly the ALP hated across the state, is it, hmmm?
As I’ve said already, I think Allan needs to go before the next election of her volition and give a new person time to get their feet under the table and make decisions on the campaign strategy. I am not head in the sand on that. But I do think once that happens, the ALP will win. The Coalition is still a rabble, and the majority of Victorians do not want a bar of One Nation whatever a noisy minority wants.
@Victoria Have to agree, Lethlean will monster Allan if he stands. She can’t be pushed so she’ll need to stand down.
Luke
Yes it would be Jacinta Allan having to stand down.
Agreed with Luke and Victoria.
I was waiting until the Metro Tunnel opened to full capacity see if it would make a difference and that doesn’t seem to be the case.
When you get ratings of 22 Approve, 55 Disapprove and choose to ignore them rather than make an abrupt change in strategy, that’s the path to an election loss. Especially when you’re trailing that far behind as Preferred Premier as well. I mean 47-31, come on.
If things don’t improve by winter and she arrogantly holds on, Ben Carroll will probably make a challenge, since he only holds Niddrie by 57-43, even less than Allan’s 61-39 in Bendigo East and would possibly lose his seat as well at this rate. 52-48 to the Coalition is a 7% swing from 2022 after all.
The education strike doesn’t exactly help the position of the Education Minister to challenge for the leadership. Carroll would want to sort this soon if he has ambitions to the top gig.
Gabrielle Williams is in a much safer seat than Carroll too. Just saying.
If more Victorians need to take public transport due to the oil crunch, the Metro Tunnel is going to be a lot more popular.
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, March 24, 2026 at 8:27 pm
Agreed with Luke and Victoria.
I was waiting until the Metro Tunnel opened to full capacity see if it would make a difference and that doesn’t seem to be the case.
_______________________
All of the Big Build has been tainted by corruption.
It’s not a selling point at all now.
I wonder how many Punters could identify Ben Carroll in a lineup, much less Gabrielle Williams. Would love to see their numbers compared to, say, John Morsett, or maybe even Jane Terstom.
I suppose the next solid marker we’ll have of things as they stand in Victoria is the Nepean by-election on 2 May, where it seems it’ll be the first true test of a likely Liberal v. One Nation contest, along with a Teal-ish Independent.
Nobody should listen to Kos Samaras. He has backed Allan 100% of the time and sees no fault in this current government. He thinks they are doing the “right things” to win suburban voters and he thinks ignoring my generation of progressives in “inner city” seats is the right move because “we don’t decide elections”. His and other Labor “strategists” attitudes towards my generation will be the exact reason they will lose in a landslide. The more they listen to Kos, the more they will lose.
And Kos does not want diversity of opinion because he does not allow comments on X/Twitter like he used to. He refuses to be challenged on anything.
@Kirsdarke – 9.03
Indeed. We will all have a much closer idea of what is actually going in once we’ve had that by-election.
I’ll be on the hustings. Will you?
(Greens)
@Daniel T.
I know Kos. I’ve known him for 25 years. (More correctly I knew him a bit way back when he was an ALP operative. I re-read my post and it could have been read as “mates”!)
My view is he over compensates and talks Labor down all the time.
Perspective is a funny thing.
@MABWM
Unfortunately Nepean is a bit too far away from Ballarat, so I won’t be.
This has got NSW in 2007 written all over it.
A tired old government that deserves to be punted getting another term thanks only to the incompetence of the opposition.
Let’s hope that it works out better than the absolute disaster that was NSW Labor between 2007-11.
Please consider in Hammond
The conventional media narrative calling Hammond for One Nation relies on outdated “broad church” preference flows, but fails to account for the structural purification of the remaining Liberal base. If roughly half of the Liberal primary has already defected to One Nation, they have effectively “taken” the conservative preference flow with them. This leaves behind a “Moderate 50” remnant in the Liberal camp—voters who are culturally closer to the Malinauskas government than to One Nation. In a 3-way contest where the Liberals finish third, applying a 40/60 preference split (where 60% of Liberal preferences flow to Labor) would see Simone Bailey leapfrog the right-wing primary surge to snatch the seat.