YouGov: Labor 29, One Nation 27, Coalition 19 (open thread)

One Nation now knocking on the door of the Labor primary vote in the latest YouGov poll, with the Coalition remaining adrift.

The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov finds One Nation only one point shy of the vote it recorded in the thick of the Liberals’ early February leadership crisis, recording 27% of the primary vote with Labor down one to 29%, the Coalition steady on 19% and the Greens steady on 13%. One Nation also records its best result yet on the two-party preferred measure against Labor, with the latter leading 53-47, in from 55-45 a fortnight ago. Labor’s lead over the Coalition narrows from 55-45 to 54-46. The poll was conducted from last Thursday through to yesterday from a sample size unspecified – I will hopefully be able to provide further detail later today.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down one-and-a-half points to 27% with the Coalition up by the same amount to 25.5%. One Nation and the Greens were each up a point, to 23.5% and 13.5% respectively. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition narrows from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52-48 to 51-49 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1664.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,047 thoughts on “YouGov: Labor 29, One Nation 27, Coalition 19 (open thread)”

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  2. BW, and? Its not like its free designer bags and holidays. Even if you ignore the ethical.argument of ensuring people can be happy and healthy, ensuring your workforce is healthy and has the flexibility for raising children has its perks. That’s the system any left wing party should see as their end goal, including Labor.

  3. GrannyAnny:

    Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 3:16 pm

    ‘I am no military expert but I predict another TACO.’

    I hope you’re right; otherwise, there will be many more “dignified transfers” to Dover Air Force Base, and, on the other side of the coin, many more martyrs created.

  5. @Boer –
    “(There is a longish history in warfare where units ARE eventually used because they have been put in place, prepared or trained to do something and then their commanders don’t want to be seen to be hitting the brakes. This has led to some very, very stupid and tragic outcomes) ”

    I was just the other week reading up on the Arnhem offensive of A Bridge Too Far fame, which was basically exactly that with the Allied paratroopers post D Day. That and a bit of classic overconfidence of the “we have Jerry on the run now, they’ll run away as soon as look at us!” variety. The sort of overconfidence that Hesgeth and co definitely have. I’m just saying.

  7. Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 4:01 pm
    Let’s see. Free transport. Free medical. Free dental. Free education from childcare through to the end of uni. Free housing. Free childcare. Free aged care. Free disability care.
    ___________________
    Free defined benefits pensions for everyone?

  8. @Fairman
    “How long before Deeming defects to One Nation? Before the evening news?”

    No bet.

    My question is whether her allies roll Wilson on Monday or defect to ON too.

  9. Arky – But Bev McArthur who is Deeming’s closest ally got pre-selected the other day. So I don’t think she is taking anyone with her. There is actually a non-zero chance that they could be in government in November if they stay in the Liberals.

  10. BS Fairman – there is actually a non-zero chance that One Nation could be the party providing the premier in November – whether or not Deeming or Bev McArthur changes parties.

  11. Re Timmy @3:56

    I’ve been getting a lot of feeds on Facebook that the Victorian Liberals are self-destructing just when they have the best opportunity in decades to seize long-term power. Instead of being centre-right, they are not just veering centre-left but LEFT. There is now only one centre-right party at state level – One Nation.

    I suppose it depends upon where you think the Centre is. The Liberals are further right than they’ve ever been. Modern Liberals would surely regard Menzies as practically a communist, what with Keynsian economics, Government ownership of many essential services, progressive taxation, strong unions and everything else back in the 1950s / 60s.

    I don’t think that the Liberals are that different in terms of positioning the old right-left political scale from One Nation, just less flakey.

  12. “It’s also clear on Facebook that more people are voting for One Nation than either of the major parties (least of all Labor).”

    That’s how Facebook algorithms work. They channel users based on their own preferences. It is no surprise Timmy is getting channelled to right wing pages.

  13. And this is the party that wants to run Victoria? The far-right faction destroyed the Libs leader Pesutto in order to push Moira so they could keep attracting far-right cookers, then they destroyed Brad Battin because of polling that was significantly impacted negatively by the the Moira-Pesutto situation, to push an L-Plate MP as the LOTO, who even with one of the least popular politicians in Australian history as Labor leader, still might not be polling well enough to win the election.

    Then after all this. All the lawsuits and loans and dismissals and knifings, they get rid of Moira. Who will now instantly become One Nation’s Victorian Barnaby Joyce, assuming Moira doesn’t have such an inflated ego that she thinks she can win a seat without Pauline.

    One Nation is going to steal all the cookers, racists, far-right agitators, whinging farmers & bigots and the Liberals will be left with a couple handfuls of points made up of blue blood old money aristocrats and the petite bourgeois who think working as a contractor for a large corporation under an ABN makes them a “small business owner”, and would vote One Nation if not for being from migrant ethnicities being directly targeted by Pauline.

  14. @B.S. Fairman

    Deeming only put herself up for candidacy for No.1 Liberal spot in Western Metropolitan, no other spots. No. 1 went to Dinesh Gourisetty, No.2 went to Trung Luu, so Deeming’s out of parliament after November if she remains in the Liberals regardless.

    Although there is an outside chance if she nominates for the Lower House in a seat like Melton, that’s where she started in politics as a local councilor after all. But she would prefer a safer seat most likely.

    I’m expecting she will jump ship to One Nation, but only if offered a lucrative deal, since her backers in the Abbott-Credlin faction of the Liberals would be rather upset with her for doing so.

  16. ‘Among the many things that make Donald Trump such an unusual politician, one of the most striking is the way he communicates. A Trump speech or press conference is typically a weird stream-of-consciousness rant; an unpleasant melange of sarcasm, abuse, exaggeration, and falsehood. But once in a while, there comes an unguarded moment of shocking candour which, in its very spontaneity, is more authentic than the disciplined lapidary eloquence of a president like Barack Obama.

    There was such a revealing moment on March 16 when Trump held a press conference at the Kennedy Centre – the Washington performing arts hall erected as a memorial to the slain president and now, grotesquely, re-named the “Trump Kennedy Centre”. The war against Iran had entered its third week and the Iranians had broadened the conflict by attacking America’s allies among the Gulf States. “They weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East. Nobody expected that. We were shocked.”

    If, among the flurry of inconsistent explanations of American policy, there is a single statement that reveals the administration’s strategic incoherence, surely it is that. America (and Israel) attack Iran with relentless fury. Iran counterattacks against nearby American allies, many of which host US military bases. Who would have thought?

    Trump’s remarks were swiftly followed by anonymous briefings – most likely from sources within the State Department and the CIA – that American intelligence assessments had indeed warned the president of that risk. The since-assassinated Iranian leadership had, in January, publicly threatened that would be the consequence of an American attack. The likelihood – or, at least, significant possibility – of such an Iranian response was the consensus of the national security community.’

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/trump-s-candour-exposes-his-foolery-and-netanyahu-like-putin-plays-him-for-a-sucker-20260329-p5zjlp.html

    There’s something radically wrong with US strategists and the intelligence community that they didn’t anticipate that Iran would attack those countries in the ME that gave the US safe harbours. I guess that was expected when a former Fox News presenter was appointed as Secretary of War, and Gabbard as the Director of National Intelligence. Brandis deserves his shekels for his Sunday columns.

  17. They were just watching their election campaigner strategy going down the toilet.. again

    Of course they travel in a monster truck with bogan stickers.

  18. P1 says,

    “I suspect things might start to get a bit more real very soon. Possibly when people are trapped in their Easter holiday destinations without enough fuel to get home again.”
    ————
    P1, you’re obsessing about the Easter hols again. My offer still stands.

  19. I’d qualify my post at 4:34 pm by noting that it has been anonymously claimed that Trump was warned that Iran would attack those ME countries that have provided succour to the US. If these claims are true, Trump’s response is even more reprehensible.

  20. Oh yeah, interesting that the Liberal vote went this way for Western Metropolitan No.1.

    Gourisetty: 39 votes
    Deeming: 26 votes
    Luu: 3 votes

    Seems the Victorian Liberals are still split around 55-45 to 60-40 between Moderates and Hard Rights. But then again Deeming may have lost some votes for how troublesome she’s been for the party this term.

  21. Granny Anny

    If Chump has Marines on their way to invade Iran, or in reality a small part of it, presumably Kharg Island, won’t they have to sail through the Straits of Hormuz to get there?

    If they intend to use paratroops, won’t they need a large number of suitable aircraft to convey them to where they will be dropped. Wouldn’t suitable airfields where those aircraft will be stabled be subject to missile and drone attack?

    Presumably Iran has troops in defensive positions on Kharg Island that would make an invasion by either marines or paratroopers difficult. They might also have artillery and armoured vehicles, something marines or paratroopers would not have in any significant quantity.

    Excellent questions. Perhaps you should replace Pete Hegseth?

    You have hit the nail on the head. Kharg Island is at the far end of the Persian Gulf.

    If the USN amphibious group stays outside the Persian Gulf to airland troops onto Kharg Island or some valuable coastal land, the logistics of flying in supplies over a long distance is very difficult. The paratroopers would be exposed without heavy weapons.

    If the USN amphibious group comes within the Gulf to land its troops at short range, it must both run the Strait, being very vulnerable to shore based attacks as it goes by, and remain in the Gulf over time, remaining vulnerable to drone and missiles attacks in order to keep the Marines supplied. Eventually it will run out of defensive missiles and have to withdraw.

    Meanwhile the troops on the island will have very little cover, and be stuck on an island 20km off the Iranian coast. The Iranians could easily bombard it with long range rockets and artillery. If it becomes a war of attrition it will end in the Iranians favour.

  23. When you see things like this, Kash Patel sculling beer, Hegseth and RFKJ doing pullups half naked, you’d be forgiven for thinking the government is run by a bunch of horny teenagers.

  24. Lauigi Smith

    P1, you’re obsessing about the Easter hols again. My offer still stands.

    Hmmm. It’s not me obsessing. Apparently you don’t read the news …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/29/regional-australia-fuel-crisis-petrol-diesel-prices

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/26/fuel-supply-fears-soaring-pump-prices-easter-road-trip-australia

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/fuel-crisis-hits-tourism-operators-with-easter-bookings-slump/news-story/0486fe8c0eecdfd2554b468817ba3918?amp

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/fuel-crisis-holidays-caravan-holidaymakers-cancel-easter-roadtrips-as-fuel-prices-sting/da2aaf5f-59cd-4f26-9853-02ad9bec0b91

    https://www.afr.com/companies/tourism/grey-nomads-stay-home-over-fear-of-getting-stranded-without-fuel-20260326-p5ziuk

    https://7news.com.au/news/queensland-tourism-hit-hard-as-fuel-crisis-forces-easter-holiday-cancellations-but-one-gold-coast-service-station-sees-act-of-kindness-c-22059710

    Thanks for the offer, but how many Australians can you crowdfund?

  27. Timmy
    Jess Wilson is not left wing.

    The Liberal Party should not merge with PHON for the same reason the Labor Party has not merged with the Greens.

  28. I’m pretty sure that if you keep on firing $2 million interceptor missiles at $50,000 drones forever then something’s got to give.

  29. Running on empty: Australia’s hard truths on security …

    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2026/03/28/energy-national-security-australia

    There is no easy fix to any of this. Our emergency fuel stockpile may no longer be in the US but it is still virtually non-existent. We married ourselves to fossil fuels, dismissed as lefties the environmentalists and researchers who told us how critical energy sovereignty was to national security, while also leaving ourselves completely exposed to this exact kind of thing. And why? Because of the fallacy that America would save us?

    Australia is no closer to a serious conversation about energy security, even with this latest crisis.

    And who is to blame? Does it really matter any more? After all, there is more than enough blame to go around …

    Labor, again doing the least possible, is overwhelmed in responding to what looks like coming down the immediate pipeline, and is still nowhere near reckoning with what the nation needs to do. Not that anything could be done quickly now, even if there was the political will. This is going to take decades to transition and, in the mean time, we will remain vulnerable to whatever global unrest America and its allies inflict on the globe.

    …

    The question becomes then, how do our leaders respond now that the existential is all too real. And who will be the last to see what is clear to so many of us, living it.

    Amy says what I have been trying to say. But she says it better.

  30. Landlord of the Yearsays:
    Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 5:24 pm
    Timmy
    Jess Wilson is not left wing.

    The Liberal Party should not merge with PHON for the same reason the Labor Party has not merged with the Greens.
    ==========================================

    The fact that he believes she is. Probably tells you how far right the Facebook pages the algorithm is sending Timmy to actually are.

  32. OTOH, the paratroopers could try to land on Kharg Island right now.
    —————————————————–
    That would certainly win back the media narrative for Trump – a narrative that is generally negative toward him and currently showing a lot of people at rallies that arent his.

  34. I’m more of the opinion that sending paratroopers to invade Kharg Island with little to no naval support would be suicidal.

    The US Military doesn’t automatically go into wars with God Mode activated, up until now they’ve understood the importance of logistics and supply. Hundreds of thousands of servicemen were needed in their various military adventures since 1941, especially with island landings. This would be like if the Germans tried to take Baku with paratroopers alone in 1942.

  35. @Confessions at 5:37pm

    Oh no, they love Deeming. They backed her to the hilt to bring down John Pesutto, and Peta Credlin treats her as if she was her protege. Tony Abbott and Warren Mundine back Deeming as well.

    I reckon they would be rather upset though if she jumps ship to One Nation though, she’s meant to be the Joan of Arc for their hard-right conservative cause within the Liberal party.

  38. ‘Compelled to answer through threat of prison

    The compulsory questioning regime is further controversial, as it permits the ASIO boss to request an adult questioning warrant or a minor questioning warrant from the Australian attorney general in relation to a person who may not be suspected of any crime, but can be as young as 14.

    Australian federal police officers are able to go out and apprehend these people if necessary, and then they’re compelled to answer the questions put to them.

    Subsection 34GD(3) of the ASIO Act makes it an offence for the subject of a questioning warrant to refuse to “give any information” or “produce a record or a thing”, which carries up to 5 years gaol time. The same section applies the same penalty to further offences of failing to appear in relation to a warrant, or providing false statements during questioning, as well as for providing illegible records.

    The civilians that ASIO has decided to haul in for extended questioning in relation to national security matters also face 5 years prison time if they don’t surrender all travel documents if the authorities requested them to or if they leave the country without permission.

    The 2020 explanatory memorandum relating to Dutton’s amendments to the regime explained that the legislation would be further “strengthening the right to legal representation during questioning while retaining the ability to prevent contact with specific lawyers due to security concerns, and to remove a lawyer who is unduly disruptive during questioning”.

    This resulted in section 34F of the ASIO Act, which provides that an adult’s lawyer may be contacted at any time during the process. A minor must have a representative present during questioning, which can be a lawyer, a parent or a guardian. But if an adult questioning warrant includes an immediate appearance requirement, then a Home Affairs appointed lawyer will cover in the interim.

    ASIO can also deny a specific lawyer requested by the subject of a questioning warrant, if that legal practitioner is considered to potentially threaten national security, and a lawyer can be removed during the questioning process, if they’re considered to be disruptive.

    Hard left MP morphs into hard right

    “This latest assault provides ASIO with the power to arrest, detain and use coercion against people… without legal representation and without access or information provided to family members,” then Labor MP Anthony Albanese told parliament in relation to the ASIO compulsory questions laws, when they were before parliament in March 2003.

    “This draconian measure even applies to those not even suspected of any offence. In other words, a person may be detained and questioned by ASIO simply because of the activities of a family friend or a university group of which they were once a member,” the current PM added back then, whilst now he is moving to make a much beefed-up version of the compulsory questioning regime permanent.

    The “hard left” politician that Albanese appeared to be two decades ago, further warned that these all-pervasive laws that had been cooked up by the Howard government could be used to mistreat minorities, silence dissent and allow for the detainment of innocent people.

    The current PM further added at the time, that whilst combatting terrorism had to be a priority, that could not be done by simply riding roughshod over constituents’ civil liberties.

    Only 20 compulsory questioning warrants have ever been issued over the last two decades, whilst when ASIO’s accompanying detention regime was still on the books, it had never been used.

    Indeed, ASIO had informed the government in May 2024 that it considered it no longer needed the ability to require 14- to 17-year-olds to undergo compulsory questioning in the current political climate. However, this failed to result in any reform in that regard.

    “This bill acknowledges that ASIO’s compulsory questioning powers remain a valuable intelligence collection tool and makes amendments to ensure that ASIO has the powers it needs to operate effectively in an increasingly complex and challenging security environment,” Burke insisted on introducing the legislation mid-last year.

    “ASIO has used these powers judiciously in circumstances where ASIO’s other powers were not appropriate for the circumstances,” he added.’

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/asios-police-state-compulsory-questioning-powers-to-be-made-permanent/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-14

    I can see a conflict of interest here:

    ‘But if an adult questioning warrant includes an immediate appearance requirement, then a Home Affairs-appointed lawyer will cover in the interim.’

    And this could give rise to subjectiveness:

    ‘ASIO can also deny a specific lawyer requested by the subject of a questioning warrant, if that legal practitioner is considered to potentially threaten national security, and a lawyer can be removed during the questioning process, if they’re considered to be disruptive.’

    But it’s this that should turn heads:

    ‘Indeed, ASIO had informed the government in May 2024 that it considered it no longer needed the ability to require 14- to 17-year-olds to undergo compulsory questioning in the current political climate. However, this failed to result in any reform in that regard.’

    Granted, the threat level has increased since the Bondi murders, but Draconian legislation should be legislation of the very last resort.

  41. Pauline on the cusp of 30%.
    Libs disintegrating. Bye bye Libs. 17%

    Do you have a link for that poll. Where do I find it.

  43. nath says:
    Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 4:13 pm
    Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 4:01 pm
    Let’s see. Free transport. Free medical. Free dental. Free education from childcare through to the end of uni. Free housing. Free childcare. Free aged care. Free disability care.
    ___________________
    Free defined benefits pensions for everyone?

    Defined benefits pensions are earned

  45. Thankyou Kirsdarke, you should be running this blog.

    So Greens about to overtake the ‘woke Libs’, and One Nation about to hit 30%.

    Goodbye ‘moderate libs’, you are dogshit. Bye bye & piss off.

    Once again, thks Kirsdarke.

  46. Those are incredible numbers for One Nation – and 40 point approval for Hanson.

    There sure is some grievance out there

  49. The rise of PHON is understandable when the Liberal Party has become a rabble and the Labor Party is a disappointment.

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