Resolve Strategic: Labor 32, Coalition 23, One Nation 23, Greens 11 (open thread)

The first poll to tackle the Angus Taylor leadership suggests a small Coalition gain from One Nation, but still finds them them well down on a month ago.

Nine Newspapers reports a new Resolve Strategic poll which dealt with last week’s complications by asking respondents separate questions about voting intention in Sussan Ley and Angus Taylor leadership scenarios through to Thursday, at which point it stopped asking about Ley. The Taylor scenario results have been published as the headline, showing Labor on 32%, up two on last month’s poll and a point higher than in the Sussan Ley scenario; the Coalition on 23%, down five on last month but up three on the Ley scenario; One Nation on 23%, up five last month but down two on the Ley scenario; and the Greens on 11%, up one on last month but down one on the Ley scenario. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make this out to be 54-46 to Labor over the Coalition based on 2025 election preference flows. UPDATE: An accompanying report says the poll has Labor leading 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences.

Anthony Albanese records a combined very good and good rating of 35%, unchanged on last time, and a combined poor and very poor of 55%, down one. A final result is provided for Sussan Ley showing her on 27% positive, down eight, and 50% negative, up eight, with Albanese leading 38-22 on preferred prime minister, out from 33-29. A question on preferred Liberal leader had Ley on 19%, Andrew Hastie on 13%, Angus Taylor on 10%, Tim Wilson on 4% and Ted O’Brien on 3%, with 52% uncommitted. We are further told of various leaders’ “net likeability” ratings: minus 12 for Albanese, minus 11 for Ley, plus four for Hastie, plus seven for Pauline Hanson, minus eight for David Littleproud and minus eight for Chris Bowen, though I consider such numbers of limited value in the absence of name recognition and uncommitted ratings. The overall survey period for the poll was Sunday to Saturday, with a sample of 1800.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,602 thoughts on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 32, Coalition 23, One Nation 23, Greens 11 (open thread)”

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  1. And now Trump’s tariffs are ruled to have been in excess of Presidential authority… BUT I understand no mechanism has been put in place to ensure refunds.

    So, I guess he’ll say to importers, “So sue me for refunds. I’ll be happy to tie you all up in litigation for years… case by case.”

    What fun!

    Why DOES this Supreme Court make such obtuse rulings? Most of their decisions are just recipes for lawyers’ picnics down the track.

    Apparently Trump can now simply ban the importation of any goods under imagined “emergency” powers. He declares America to be “at war” or otherwise under attack. This is non-justiciable, his prerogative alone. Then he outright bans, say, French wine, or Australian beef, or Korean cars. He was actually bragging today that he could now “destroy” other countries by cutting off trade with them altogether. He would have no choice but to do so. Very sad. You could almost see the bulge in his trousers.

    He also claimed this decision shows the Supreme Court is under “foreign control”.

    The man is insane. And so is the country he leads.

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