Federal polling: Roy Morgan and Tasmanian EMRS (open thread)

The Coalition pokes its nose back in front of One Nation in a small-sample national, while a Tasmanian poll finds One Nation competitive against Labor in the state’s north.

We got a pared back version of the regular weekly Roy Morgan result this week, since the pollster went public last Friday with the part of its regular survey that was conducted before Sussan Ley was deposed as Liberal leader last Friday. This leaves the polling done from Friday to Sunday as the first national indication of the state of play under Angus Taylor. With due regard to the fact that this leaves a sample of only 526, the results at least show the Coalition moving back ahead of One Nation, gaining three-and-a-half to 23.5% with One Nation down the same amount to 21.5%. Labor was up one-and-a-half to 32% with the Greens down half to 12.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead was back to 55-45 after a 58.5-41.5 blowout in Sussan Ley’s last poll.

Less encouraging for Angus Taylor is a poll of federal voting intention in Tasmania, conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1000 by EMRS for Pulse Tasmania. It has Labor at 30%, compared with 36.6% at the May 2025 election; One Nation on 24%, compared with 6.0%; the Liberals on 18%, compared with 24.5%; and the Greens on 13%, compared with 11.1%. A two-party result has Labor leading the Liberals 60-40, compared with 63.3-36.7 at the election.

The accompanying report offers seat-level detail from meagre samples, showing a 50-50 two-party result between Labor and One Nation in Braddon, with One Nation on 34%, Labor on 31% and Liberal on 16%. One Nation are also found to be competitive in Bass (Labor 29%, One Nation 25% and Liberal 23%) and Lyons (Labor 32%, One Nation 29% and Liberal 16%). The numbers for Clark dubiously have independent, which includes incumbent Andrew Wilkie, at 25%, with Labor on 27%, the Greens 17%, One Nation 16% and Liberal 15%. The numbers in Franklin are Labor 34%, Liberal 21%, Greens 19% and One Nation 17%.

There was also a RedBridge Group poll this week for the Australia Institute, conducted as part of the progressive think tank’s campaigning on gas exports and royalty payments, which included voting intention numbers. These had Labor on 34%, One Nation on 28%, the Coalition on 17% and the Greens on 10%. The poll was conducted immediately before Sussan Ley was deposed, from February 6 to 12, from a sample of 2010.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

607 thoughts on “Federal polling: Roy Morgan and Tasmanian EMRS (open thread)”

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  4. “Worst case scenario: 94-6=88 seats (uh-oh, did I just summon Nadia?). Federal Labor can live with that.”

    You can be sure that if Labor lost six federal seats in Victoria they’d lose enough seats to lose government nationwide.

  5. Player1 writes:

    Gods above … could Bushfire Bill – conspiracy theorist extraordinaire – have been right about Diego Garcia? …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-22/chagos-islands-donald-trump-keir-starmer/106372464

    Wonders will never cease

    This is presumably in reference to a theory I put forward here years ago, soon after MH370 disappeared.

    I had suggested that the publicly available evidence did not contradict the possibility that MH370 had either landed on, or come to grief en route and nearby to the US military base of Diego Garcia.

    This was immediately pooh-pooh’ed by several here (presumably including P1, but I genuinely don’t recall) as a “conspiracy theory”.

    My main reasons for this were (obviously) that MH370 was conclusively reported as exiting Malaysian airspace in a southerly direction into the Indian Ocean, and that the Americans swore blind they had not seen anything on whatever “screens” they use to detect threats to the Diego Garcia base… which made me instantly suspicious. The latter claim seemed extremely odd to me, given the absolute isolation of the base – it is literally in the middle of nowhere – and its critical strategic importance to US national security. I suggested that such a critical, but isolated base would have surveillance in depth, especially from satellites parked in geostationary orbits (allowing them to scan an entire hemisphere of the planet, not just an ocean). Such surveillance should be able to detect the heat signature of a seagull farting at a thousand kilometres from Diego Garcia. Detecting a two-hundred tonne jet – which could be an enemy bomber – would therefore be a trivial exercise. Yet the Yanks reported no sightings over the entire Indian Ocean that night.

    I thought it was interesting that critics of my theory – who themselves had no evidence for their position – were so quick to add the word “conspiracy” to “theory” as a way of mocking my idea that had at least some evidence going for it (there were also credible sightings of a large jetliner flying south, far away from normal flight lanes by multiple witnesses in the Maldives, mysterious explosions detected by hydrophones located in Esperance and Albany, WA, triangulating to a narrow corridor that included Diego Garcia) I wasn’t too serious about it myself, to tell the truth, but I was curious as to how far critics would go in insisting that anything other than the “official” story – that MH370 had somehow crashed into the sea south-west of Western Australia, and would inevitably be found soon – was a “conspiracy theory”.

    A theory should predict events. So I predicted that if its disappearance had anything to do with US National Security and Diego Garcia either the aircraft or its final impact location would never be found. So far this prediction is accurate, although reportedly bits of the plane have washed up thousands of kilometres away from both Western Australua and Diego Garcia (although, to be fair, closer to Diego Garcia).

    I became fascinated by the dynamics of how a “conspiracy theory” was either proposed, or derided, depending on which “tribe” the proposer or derider belonged to. To anyone who hasn’t realised it yet, yes, we DO have tribes here on PB.

    For example, anyone who proposes that “9/11” was an inside job, perpetrated by the Saudis is mocked outright, despite most of the terrorists involved being Saudi, including their leader, bin Laden. Kennedy Assassination theorists are less ridiculed, but still are generally assigned to the loonie bin under pressure for the critic to call heads or tails.

    In recent times, the death of Jeffery Epstein is questioned: suicide or murder? As time goes by, and more evidence is examined, the label “conspiracy theorist” is less and less applied to members of the “murder” camp.

    Lastly, there is the “Q-Anon Conspiracy”. I was utterly convinced there was no truth to it whatsoever. I was guilty of a lack imagination there, and, being a Trump loather, was pretty sure this was some kind of “black op” to discredit Democrats (including the Clintons), “Hollywood Elites” and other assorted mega-rich liberals.

    But as the Epstein files continue to produce nuggets of information, ekeing those nuggets out as redactions are busted, it’s becoming pretty clear that there was a large, well-organised sex trafficking operation going on, including pedophilia (both hetero and homo sexual), that may or may not have included the Clintons, but which definitely did include wealthy, liberal as well as ultra-conservative elites, operating not only above, but sometimes in collusion with the law. As to some of the more far-fetched Q-Anon allegations, like “adrenochrome extraction farms”, I don’t know. I don’t think so. I’d like to believe not. But, with evidence emerging that there may be young bodies buried on Epstein’s old New Mexico ranch, of forced abortions, and of planned involuntary fertilisation programs, all involving minors, I’m not sure what to believe anymore, especially taking into account the utter power, wealth, depravity, insanity and corruptability of the monsters involved.

    As to MH370, so far critics over what started out as a bit of speculative fun about a missing airliner on my part, have been 100% wrong. Thankyou P1 for the back-handed apology. Coming from you, that’s a BIG effort. It seems my idle speculations and the predictions I made based on them have proved far more accurate, and at worst have not yet been disproved.

    As someone once said, “It’s not paranoia if they really are out to get you.” Likewise, it’s not a conspiracy theory if there really is a conspiracy. Maybe “Q” was trying to tell us something. Not the public trials and executions of Democrats we were told to anticipate, or that Trump would be the righteous avenger (rather than a likely perpetrator), but the core story of gross evildoing and of immunity from its consequences may have had more than a grain of truth to it.

    ———-

    PS. I am not a “Moon Landing Denier”.

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