We got a pared back version of the regular weekly Roy Morgan result this week, since the pollster went public last Friday with the part of its regular survey that was conducted before Sussan Ley was deposed as Liberal leader last Friday. This leaves the polling done from Friday to Sunday as the first national indication of the state of play under Angus Taylor. With due regard to the fact that this leaves a sample of only 526, the results at least show the Coalition moving back ahead of One Nation, gaining three-and-a-half to 23.5% with One Nation down the same amount to 21.5%. Labor was up one-and-a-half to 32% with the Greens down half to 12.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead was back to 55-45 after a 58.5-41.5 blowout in Sussan Ley’s last poll.
Less encouraging for Angus Taylor is a poll of federal voting intention in Tasmania, conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1000 by EMRS for Pulse Tasmania. It has Labor at 30%, compared with 36.6% at the May 2025 election; One Nation on 24%, compared with 6.0%; the Liberals on 18%, compared with 24.5%; and the Greens on 13%, compared with 11.1%. A two-party result has Labor leading the Liberals 60-40, compared with 63.3-36.7 at the election.
The accompanying report offers seat-level detail from meagre samples, showing a 50-50 two-party result between Labor and One Nation in Braddon, with One Nation on 34%, Labor on 31% and Liberal on 16%. One Nation are also found to be competitive in Bass (Labor 29%, One Nation 25% and Liberal 23%) and Lyons (Labor 32%, One Nation 29% and Liberal 16%). The numbers for Clark dubiously have independent, which includes incumbent Andrew Wilkie, at 25%, with Labor on 27%, the Greens 17%, One Nation 16% and Liberal 15%. The numbers in Franklin are Labor 34%, Liberal 21%, Greens 19% and One Nation 17%.
There was also a RedBridge Group poll this week for the Australia Institute, conducted as part of the progressive think tank’s campaigning on gas exports and royalty payments, which included voting intention numbers. These had Labor on 34%, One Nation on 28%, the Coalition on 17% and the Greens on 10%. The poll was conducted immediately before Sussan Ley was deposed, from February 6 to 12, from a sample of 2010.
Mavis, OC, Arky, C@tmomma, BW, A_E
A very interesting article on
How could Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor be removed from the line of succession to the throne (in Australia)?
https://theconversation.com/how-could-andrew-mountbatten-windsor-be-removed-from-the-line-of-succession-to-the-throne-276604
Gods above … could Bushfire Bill – conspiracy theorist extraordinaire – have been right about Diego Garcia? …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-22/chagos-islands-donald-trump-keir-starmer/106372464
Wonders will never cease 🙁
I’ve seen analysis which suggests that Tisza would need a 4-5% lead to be confident of a working majority in Hungary.
@BT
Yeah, that sounds about right. Just the polling outfits in Hungary seem to be completely partisan. There’s the pro-Orban lot that have Fidesz in the lead by about 5-10%, and then there’s the Independent/Opposition lot that have Tisza in the lead by about 7-15%.
Given that Orban’s Fidesz is in effective control of everything in Hungary and they are Putin’s patsies then that tilts the scales in their favour.
It’s an interesting point you raise, Boer War, about the Greens support for the No case in the Voice referendum.
Here’s their current position on it, in which they conveniently say they supported the Yes case, while blaming Lidia Thorpe in isolation for running an interference campaign. https://greens.org.au/wa/news/outcome-voice-referendum
Of course, that’s a rewrite of history which is better covered here, showing that major sectors of the party still supported the No case in February 2023: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/08/greens-first-nations-conveners-side-with-lidia-thorpe-and-say-they-do-not-support-voice-to-parliament
They’re good rewriters of history. Here’s their enduring justification for voting against the CPRS in 2009. https://greens.org.au/explainers/cprs
Ven
The article misses the point that the legislated aim of the Australian succession act is to maintain the same succession as the UK. I guess that act could be amended to allow the Australian parliament to choose the monarch- probably the only path for Josef Wenzel von Liechtenstein to the throne.
BTW the oath prescribed in the schedule of the constitution for members of federal parliament is:
I, A.B., do solemnly and sincerely affirm and declare that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Victoria, Her heirs and successors according to law.
Note: The name of the King or Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland for the time being is to be substituted from time to time.
Is it a problem that that country has possibly not existed since 1922 and certainly hasn’t existed since 1949?
(No – legislative interpretation is that it has been substituted by the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland but sov citzs may find it of note)
Main story in Adel advertiser …
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=AAWEB_MRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.adelaidenow.com.au%2Fnews%2Fsouth-australia%2Fstate-election%2Fliberal-candidate-rosalie-rotolo-admits-campaign-car-was-unregistered-for-nearly-18-months%2Fnews-story%2F4f7e9d72816b3a7bd94a135848abcc25&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=ULTRALOW-Segment-2-SCORE
Oh my God!
I posted this comment on the SA election thread but it is relevant nationally. In the past few days the Malinauskus government has promised some solutions to housing affordability that much better target causes of the problem than the usual buyer subsidies that only prop up prices.
Leroy / Socrates
Labor launches SA election campaign with land and housing promises
By Daniel Keane
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/peter-malinauskas-aims-for-centre-at-labor-launch-as-he-holds-off-one-nations-sa-election-surge/news-story/aab40f1c74fff271d9400503de0c8a89
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Thanks for linking Labor’s housing policy for the SA election. The biggest factors in housing affordability are Federal level policies. But the Labor policy is good for addressing the factors States are responsible for – land supply and the prevention of land banking by property speculators. Stopping this is more important than subsidies that only keep the house price bubble inflated.
————————————————
The other policy a day ago was reducing stamp duty on larger homes being sold by downsizing boomers. This reduces barriers to the market becoming more flexible, which is badly needed.
Whether you like Malinauskus or not these are both good policies. In an ideal world such ideas would not only be introduced at election time. Still, other States should consider following suit on both of these ideas.
The Libs have been so incompetent in SA (and having a coke sniffer as leader) and that now continues with Ms Rotolo, a former King William Rd gourmet store owner for 28 years, expressing “regret” on Sunday night for a blunder that left one of her Fiat cars – emblazoned with her face and Liberal insignia – being unregistered for almost 18 months. LOL. A bunch of manchurian candidates it appears.
Well Rosalie Rotolo could always stand for One Nation in SA. She sounds like she would be a good fit.
How many Fiat cars does she have? Are there others not registered?
One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce says metropolitan-based GPs should be barred from participating in Medicare unless they spend a period of time practising in the regions, downplaying the impact of bulk-billing rates by declaring there was an “an abundance of doctors in the cities”.
The former deputy prime minister has also opened the door to backing a flat income tax rate once championed by controversial National Party heavyweight Joh Bjelke-Peterson, despite also proposing higher government spending on infrastructure assets such as coal-fired power stations, dams, rail and ports.
While warning Australians face a choice to “either go broke or we trim” government spending, Mr Joyce said Pauline Hanson’s populist party would be prepared to show the political bravery to propose spending cuts in the public service, health, education and the NDIS.
Arguing the tax system was too complex, he said he had spoken to Senator Hanson about the need to model the cost of shifting towards a flat income tax rate to assess whether it was affordable.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/one-nations-threat-to-doctors-go-regional-or-no-bulk-billing/news-story/12b58ddc3fdcf229f44f0fe36ef18b2e?amp
newy boysays:
For anyone who disparages ‘centrists’: how come it’s the extremes of Right and Left who are always the most keen to play footsie with the murderous imperialist Putin *, and the least keen to lift a finger to help that genocidal maniac’s victims, Ukrainians?
* I mean, since Germany’s Schroder and Merkel bent over backwards to cosy up to Putin and Medvedev on the 2000’s and 2010’s.
_____________________
Merkel and Schroder aren’t centrists? They didn’t both move their parties towards the center?
And even if they didn’t do that, which they did, one was center left and the other center right, hardly from the extremes.
Next we will be hearing that Albo is not a centrist.
Newy boy. Obviously the difference is that China, North Korea and Iran are not buyers of Ukrainian gas delivered via pipes that go through Russia!
This allows them to behave as actual allies, unlike Ukraine’s fake allies.
Making currency out of a Fiat 🙂
nath says:
Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 10:07 pm
Next we will be hearing that Albo is not a centrist.
中华人民共和国
Isn’t he a Rabbitoh, oh and a Catholic by trade?
Wonder to what extent the electoral process can be trusted in Hungary? Can we expect a legitimate result?
Upnorthsays:
Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 10:24 pm
nath says:
Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 10:07 pm
Next we will be hearing that Albo is not a centrist.
中华人民共和国
Isn’t he a Rabbitoh, oh and a Catholic by trade?
____________________________
that’s got nothing to do with what I was saying.
Ven:
Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 9:23 pm
Thanks, Ven. It’s a dog’s breakfast, but it can and should be done.
___________________________________________________________
Oakeshott Country:
Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 9:44 pm
Your attention is drawn to UK constitutional law, and the rules of statutory interpretation, which hold that a change in the name of a territory or a state does not invalidate earlier statutes referring to the former name, with the result that references to Great Britain and Ireland are interpreted as the United Kingdom as it’s constituted today – the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
@Oakeshott:
“(No – legislative interpretation is that it has been substituted by the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland but sov citzs may find it of note)”
Believe me, the “it uses the old name of the UK and therefore is not valid!” thing has got a runout from the sovcits a thousand times already.
Griff says:
Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 10:23 pm
Making currency out of a Fiat
中华人民共和国
Dad rented a Fiat many years ago when we went to Norfolk Island.
It was exciting to drive in car that had electric windows and aircon.
The Datsun 180B back home had none of that. Whether it was used for currency post is unknown.
nath says:
Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 10:31 pm
Upnorthsays:
Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 10:24 pm
nath says:
Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 10:07 pm
Next we will be hearing that Albo is not a centrist.
中华人民共和国
Isn’t he a Rabbitoh, oh and a Catholic by trade?
____________________________
that’s got nothing to do with what I was saying.
中华人民共和国
Rightio cobber. Keep going.
Must be some kind of Queensland attempt at humor or something.
nath says:
Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 10:54 pm
Must be some kind of Queensland attempt at humor or something.
中华人民共和国
I think Oakeshott Country hails from “The Premier State” though I do remember he has spent time on the tools Upnorth.
nath
“ nath says:
Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 10:07 pm
Next we will be hearing that Albo is not a centrist.”
————
Sadly, I think with Albo and the pseudo left it’s a matter of, “the working class can kiss my arse, I’ve got the foreman’s job at last.”
Latest poll, according to Auspoll, has federal vote in Victoria, supposedly the most left-leaning mainland Australian state, at 30% for One Nation, with 51% ONP/ALP two party split.
Latest poll, according to Auspoll, has federal vote in Victoria, supposedly the most left-leaning mainland Australian state, at 30% for One Nation, with 51% ONP/ALP two party split.
Looks like people are finally tiring of “bad migration” as Angus Taylor would describe them?
Auspoll is a Twitter account run by 6News. The numbers to which you refer are from the Fox & Hedgehog poll, which I’ll do a post on overnight.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HH88HR1Gwa9keIiIYiBbiSWTAANkKRS9/view
Timmysays:
Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 11:16 pm
“Latest poll, according to Auspoll, has federal vote in Victoria, supposedly the most left-leaning mainland Australian state, at 30% for One Nation”
How high do you think it could go?
Presumably later we’ll have a Fox & Hedgehog & Knuckles poll or something.
William Bowe says:
Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 11:20 pm
Auspoll is a Twitter account run by 6News. The numbers to which you refer are from the Fox & Hedgehog poll, which I’ll do a post on overnight.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HH88HR1Gwa9keIiIYiBbiSWTAANkKRS9/view
____________________________________________
Eff me :
– Net minus 25 points on GCT change amongst One Nation voters – my new theory now is that Vic polling is some property investor/house price aspirant uprising, given relative weak house price and rent growth.
– The following question on ISIS brides – all demographic and political splits net oppose their return.
“How high do you think it could go?”
High enough to cause Labor to lose seats in metropolitan areas, and, enough to cause a change government at the next election, either a Coalition-One Nation or a One Nation-Coalition government.
“Next we will be hearing that Albo is not a centrist.”
Albo is not a centrist.
In my suburb in inner Melbourne, Albo is considered centre-right to right-wing.
In “mainstream Australia” as the media (and judging by responses on Facebook) portrays it, Albo is considered extreme-left.
Arthur Sullivan of Deutsche Welle says that the European Union is studying the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to declare many of Trump’s tarifs unconstitutional.
Well, I think we’ll have to wait and see how the SA election goes in to how serious the One Nation vote is.
If it turns out that high and Victorian Labor is really in that much danger in November then I think there’ll be a leadership change over Winter.
Because there’s no way in hell Victorian Labor is going to just give up everything for this sour-faced Brumby II.
Or maybe they just do, I don’t know.
Kirsdarkesays:
Because there’s no way in hell Victorian Labor is going to just give up everything for this sour-faced Brumby II.
_________________
wow. Don’t stand between a stooge and government, even Labor Premiers aren’t safe.
30% ON in Vic, sure. Has any real pollster with a track record had them at 30% even in Qld or NSW?
Seems pretty cooked to me, Fox and friend high on their own fumes or pitching for right wing biz and trying to pull across bandwagon joiners.
Fox & Hedgehog has basically the same national result for One Nation as every other pollster. Why would they single out Victoria to inflate their tyres if they were “pitching for right wing biz”?
Is Climate 200 making a push at the next Vic election? WB are you doing any work for them in that area?
It was a flip comment, but it does seem on the high side. Or maybe Islamophobia is even more popular than I thought, given Hanson’s comments have been the main ON news recently
Most likely it’s to do with the 6% margin of error.
Assuming that subsection of a poll can be taken as legit (Kos Samaras and Kevin Bonham have gotten stuck into the 6News kids on Twitter): Labor won Vic federally 56.3%, so that’s a swing north of 7% to either Lib or ON (assuming they can be swapped out for each other). That’s seven seats: Menzies, Bendigo, Deakin, Aston, McEwen, Chisholm, Dunkley, assuming a uniform swing (is that the third time this paragraph I’ve used the word “assuming”?)
Bendigo is an aberrant swing from some Vic Nats who are much more interested in the premier’s seat at state election, so ignore that.
McEwen and Dunkley are outer suburban, so maybe ON will do better than the average there? Meanwhile, the racism of ON will piss off Asian maybe-Lib voters in eastern Melbourne, so there goes most of the rest of that list.
Worst case scenario: 94-6=88 seats (uh-oh, did I just summon Nadia?). Federal Labor can live with that.
Al Jazeera
Modi’s Israel visit: Timeline of India’s relations with Israel, Palestine
From Mahatma Gandhi’s support for Palestine to Modi’s Netanyahu embrace, we trace how India’s ties have evolved over the decades.
https://www-aljazeera-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/2/22/modis-israel-visit-timeline-of-indias-relations-with-israel-palestine?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17717827010061&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2026%2F2%2F22%2Fmodis-israel-visit-timeline-of-indias-relations-with-israel-palestine
Ishaan Tharoor of The New Yorker reports on Trump’s Board of Grift Peace.
Ven,
I’m not sure but it’s looking like you are quoting more than 10% of the articles you are quoting from. Just a friendly reminder.
New thread.
– CNN