Days out from the start of the formal campaign period, two major polls have emerged for the March 21 South Australian election, both extraordinary even by the standards of recent Australian opinion polling. Newspoll in The Australian has the Liberals reduced to a level that would have them hard pressed to win any seats at all, with just 14% of the primary vote to Labor’s 44%, One Nation’s 24% and the Greens’ 12%. Peter Malinauskas records a remarkable 67% approval rating, with disapproval at 27%, while recently installed Liberal leader Ashton Hurn is at 39% and 35%, with Malinauskas leading 67-19 on preferred premier. Issue salience questions are dominated by cost-of-living, health, economic management and housing, with “addressing the algal bloom” barely registering. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1057.
A YouGov poll in The Advertiser is somewhat more modest, though it still has One Nation running second on 22% to Labor’s 37%, the Liberals’ 20% and the Greens’ 13%. Unlike Newspoll, YouGov has troubled to produce respondent-allocated two-party preferred results, finding Labor leading Liberal 59-41 and One Nation 60-40, compared with 54.6-45.4 versus Liberal at the 2022 election. Peter Malinauskas is at 64% approval and 28% disapproval, with Ashton Hurn at 40% and 33% and Malinauskas holding a 64-20 lead on preferred premier. Respondents were also asked if they considered Labor and Liberal “mainstream” or “a fringe party not capable of governing the state”, respectively producing splits of 84-16 for Labor and 56-44 for Liberal. The poll encompassed a longer fieldwork period than Newspoll – February 6 to 17, as compared with February 11 to 17 – and might perhaps have been less affected by the Liberals’ federal convulsions.
Further news from the South Australian front:
• Frances Bedford has announced she will seek a comeback in Florey, which she held from 1997 to 2022, as a Labor member until 2017 and an independent thereafter. Bedford ran in neighbouring Newland in 2022, which had absorbed Florey’s former focal point of Modbury, but managed only 12.3%.
• Tammy Franks, who has sat as an independent since quitting the Greens last May, has announced she will seek re-election in the Legislative Council as an independent. Franks was elected from the top of the Greens ticket in both 2010 and 2018 but did not nominate for the preselection held in 2024, later saying she had made way for parties motivated by “ambition and self-interest”. She will be running on a ticket with Faith Coleman, an ecologist who has been conducting “citizen science research” into the state’s algal bloom crisis. Coleman told a parliamentary inquiry in January that multiple government staff members had told her they were instructed not to investigate the cause of the algal bloom until after the election, a claim vehemently denied by the government.
• David Penberty of The Australian last week wrote that Liberal-turned-independent MP Fraser Ellis was “expected to hold” in Narungga, despite having been found guilty in 2024 on four charges of misusing parliamentary travel entitlements.
• Conversely, both major parties reportedly expect the Liberals to recover MacKillop, whose Liberal-turned-independent member Nick McBride is on home detention after being charged with domestic violence offences. The sensitivity of the seat presumably helps explain the Liberals siding with local farmers over the mining industry through a promised moratorium on rare earths mining.
Asha
Yes, Ashton is only 35 which would have to make her the youngest Premier of a state ever. She has a one year old. If the Libs can unite behind her and if they have enough furniture left after the election, she could give Mali a run for his money in 4 years. But those are two very big ifs.
She is very tough.
Yes- she is the best of the Opposition Leaders here in the last 4 years. She doesn’t have a great CV, but she has a serious demeanour, good presentation, can stay on message etc…
She is giving it a fair crack- which cant be easy when facing a wipeout.
Key update:
Definitely True 13
Probably True 0
Probably False 1
Definitely True 0
7 False keys for opposition 2PP win.
If it was today:
Definitely True 13
Probably True 0
Probably False 1
Definitely False 0
Can you believe that there are 11 seats in the House of Assembly where the Liberals still don’t have a candidate yet?
Thomas:
Wait, seriously?
Are nominations even still open? The election is in a month!
Yes. Nominations are open until the 27th of February.
On Hurn’s performance (so far), this was my critique which I posted on the main thread the other night:
Hurn’s problem so far is she’s too nice. While I realise the starting pistol for the election doesn’t officially get fired until Saturday and things could change over the subsequent month but, from what I’ve seen of her so far, she’s not really making a strong impression. First bunch of ads of hers were just to the effect of “Gosh, I’m just a true blue girl from the country. Vote for me.” and while they’ve been a little more substantive since, they’re still too positive and friendly, like the campaign is a formality and she’s the Premier-in-waiting.
That’s not the case. They’re severe underdogs that face a battle not just against the Government but for survival. This is not the time for an opposition leader to campaign like that, she needs to be aggressive and nasty. Be loud about everything that’s wrong in the state right now and everything wrong about the Malinauskas Government. Try and tear back some support and remind the base why they’re the alternative. They’re not going to win this time but if they can take some shine off the Government and maybe save a few seats, it could set them up better for next term.
She has been aggressive and negative relentlessly over the last 4 years in the media.
It is quite usual for a new leader to put out a ‘hello-this is who I am’ round of ads. People have to be introduced to this new person, or else she is just some screaming banshee on the TV.
The negative ads will come next….but the Liberals don’t have the material to work with like the Labor Party has!
“so far”
Watching Adelaide ABC news tonight they covered the opening of the SA election campaign.
Ashton Hurn started in the Barossa and featured a policy about regional health access. That is fine and makes sense in terms of campaigning to hang onto Liberal rural seats. But she said nothing of any relevance to metropolitan seats in Adelaide. Have the Liberals given up on them already??
Malinauksus said that housing was the primary issue in this campaign, and he would campaign on that.
Wat
Trust me. She is not “too nice”. She is very tough. She will go after Mali. I think. 🙂
Thomas / Asha: the Libs only got a candidate for Black last week, and it’s a seat they won in 2022! I guess the person who failed to replace David Speirs at the by-election wasn’t interested, and neither was anyone else.
Most of the seats they still haven’t got someone for are safe Labor seats in northern Adelaide where they’ll probably come third behind One Nation.
Labor were very slow as well in a few winnable seats.
I’m not sure ON have announced many candidates. Probably to give the others less time to dismantle them.
If the Wikipedia page is right, One Nation has candidates everywhere except Croydon (Malinauskas’s seat) and Dunstan. 45 Facebook profiles to ferret through… there should be something fun there.
Greens are blank in 15 seats. Cheltenham, Enfield, Hurtle Vale and Light have neither Lib or Green candidates.
That is interesting. They probably might need to hurry up and find candidates before the close of nominations in 5 days. They wouldn’t want to miss out on a seat now would they?
Also Marisa Bell the candidate for the federal seat of Mayo in 2022 and 2025 is running in Heysen.
Noting that ON need to quickly find candidates for empty seats, their age old problem of poor candidate selection rears its head again. How many more Rodney Culletons will they put in office this time?
This is why I can’t see ON ever forming government. They are not a movement united by a cause. Nor are they a major political party with a structure and ability to generate reliable candidates.
ON are an appeal to resentment. That is the thing that unites them. Asked what the solution to their problems should be, I doubt ON voters would agree with each other.
Don’t get me started on their lack of policies on a range of issues. ON make MAGA look organised.
Reading through all the comments in this thread and it’s noticeable to me how many regulars (who I’d consider to be on the left of politics) seem to intensely dislike Peter Maulinauksas, it’s a similar thing in NSW in relation to Chris Minns. Some on the progressive side seem to disapprove of Labor leaders who are seen to be popular out there in voter land and with elements of the conservative media too – the accusation always thrown at Minns is that he does whatever the shock jocks on 2GB in Sydney tell him to do.
She seems terrified she is going to lose her seat hence the Barossa Valley hospital policy.
SO
She’s had that as a policy from Marshalls time.
Can’t wait to see the Liberal politicians go through the 5 stages of grief yet again on ABC, 7, 9, and 10 when they start the coverage of the election.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-22/labor-launches-sa-election-campaign-with-housing-policy/106373392
Labor launches SA election campaign with land and housing promises
By Daniel Keane
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/peter-malinauskas-aims-for-centre-at-labor-launch-as-he-holds-off-one-nations-sa-election-surge/news-story/aab40f1c74fff271d9400503de0c8a89
archive version: https://archive.is/GkrBn
Peter Malinauskas aims for centre at Labor launch as he holds off One Nation’s SA election surge
In a speech aimed more at neutralising One Nation grievance than tackling his traditional Liberal opponents, Peter Malinauskas urged voters to set division aside and focus instead on the economic opportunities now on offer in SA.
David Penberthy
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/22/south-australian-liberals-fear-peak-humiliation-at-state-election-even-on-traditionally-less-friendly-ground-for-one-nation
Can One Nation make it in South Australia? Liberal party fears peak humiliation at state election
Labor under Peter Malinauskas seems set for a massive win in the 21 March poll, but all eyes are on how the rightwing vote will shake out
Tory Shepherd
Sun 22 Feb 2026 06.00 AEDT
Leroy
Thanks for linking Labor’s housing policy for the SA election. The biggest factors in housing affordability are Federal level policies. But the Labor policy is good for addressing the factors States are responsible for – land supply and the prevention of land banking by property speculators. Stopping this is more important than subsidies that only keep the house price bubble inflated.
One Nation would claim at least two seats, but independents could shake things up, with Family First and Stephen Pallaras standing out in the latest data compiled in exclusive results revealed to InDaily from a DemosAU/Ace Strategies Poll.
The independent political polling shows little traction for the SA Liberals in the upper house, with results showing the key party led by Ashton Hurn stands to gain one Upper House seat, the party relying on preferences for a second. There are currently five Liberal members in the upper house so the party would still hold onto its Opposition status.
Family First party – which has focused on cost of living in campaigning so far, and has Deepa Mathew as lead candidate – would win four per cent of the vote if the election were held today, following the Greens on 11 per cent, Liberals 15 per cent, One Nation’s 21 per cent and Labor’s 38 per cent.
DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos predicted that overall on the polling, the Legislative Council Chamber would end up with nine to 10 Labor members, six Liberals, two to three One Nation, one to two Greens, Sarah Game and up to three seats in doubt.
https://www.indailysa.com.au/news/just-in/2026/02/23/exclusive-polling-results-reveal-surprise-election-players
9 more candidates left for the Liberals to find, and 2 more candidates left for One Nation to find on their quest to contest every seat in the House of Assembly.
Tom Koutsantonis has tweeted that Alex Antic has been spotted having drinks with Cori Bernardi, now SA leader of ON. Is Antic thinking of doing a preference deal with ON, or something else…
“Senator Alex Antic@SenatorAntic
The old guard of the establishment right in Australia needs to understand that it is no longer the year 2004.
Populist movements are spreading across the west and it’s time to either accept that populism isn’t a dirty word.
To hear more from me and stay up to date, signup to my email newsletter here: “
One Nation & True Blue: https://x.com/blakandblack/status/2025902278935527424
Labor will announce major plans for a new hospital near Gawler which ferociously targets Liberal leader Ashton Hurn in her Barossa Valley seat. The uncosted plan has no timeline to open.
Mirroring Labor’s 2022 “double decapitation” strategy to depose both then Liberal leader Steven Marshall (he narrowly won but his seat of Dunstan then fell to Labor) and his deputy Dan van Holst Pellekaan (he lost Stuart) to cripple the Liberal Party for a generation, the new plan aims to win the seat of Schubert from Mrs Hurn.
The Liberals have a $350m policy to build a new Barossa Valley Hospital.
Now, Labor says it has “secured” 9ha on the corner of Springbett Road and Concordia Road at Gawler for what it dubs the Greater Northern Adelaide Hospital.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/new-gawler-hospital-plan-unveiled-in-labors-bid-to-unseat-liberal-leader/news-story/c5772375e0313a28ce6877ee679a5157?amp
The SA Liberals opposition status is more fragile than ever, according to independent pollster DemosAU’s research head George Hasanakos. Hasanakos said that exclusive polling from DemosAU/Ace Strategies showed that for the first time, who takes opposition might not be clear-cut on election night.
The latest poll – which surveyed 1070 South Australians on their views via internet panels from January 31 to February 16, 2025 – had One Nation inching ahead of the Liberals by only one per cent, with eight per cent of voters saying they would vote for other candidates or minor parties.
“On these results, we will see Labor re-elected very easily, and the interesting contest will instead be whether the Liberals or One Nation reach second place,” Hasanakos said. “All of the Liberals metro seats are at risk to Labor. If the Liberals cannot resist the Labor tide in Adelaide then control of the Opposition benches will be decided in regional SA.”
https://www.indailysa.com.au/news/just-in/2026/02/26/exclusive-polling-reveals-battle-for-libs-to-hold-opposition-status