Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, Coalition 30, Greens 12, One Nation 11 in Victoria

The second Victorian state poll in successive weeks paints a rather different picture from the last on voting intention, while confirming the unpopularity of Jacinta Allan.

The Age today brings the regular bi-monthly Victorian state poll from Resolve Strategic, combining 1000 responses from the last two monthly national polls. The result is markedly different from last week’s DemosAU poll in having One Nation, who had not previously been broken out from “others”, at a modest 11%, but similar in having the Coalition down nine points from November-December to 30%. DemosAU had One Nation more in line with the recent trend of federal polling at 21%, with the Coalition down eight on its October poll to 29%. Labor is holding steady at 28%, compared with a three-point drop from DemosAU to 23%, while the Greens are steady on 12%. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make it around 51-49 in favour of Labor. Liberal leader Jess Wilson nonetheless records a net personal rating of plus 14, up three from last time, and leads Jacinta Allan 39-20 as preferred premier, out from 41-24. Allan’s already poor rating is down five to minus 37.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

163 thoughts on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, Coalition 30, Greens 12, One Nation 11 in Victoria”

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  1. Watson needs to be investigated by the federal ICAC and IBAC for his ties to the corporations that are pushing the false $15b figure. He needs to be forced to say where he got that figure from, who told him to include it, why he included it, and if he has any connections to groups who will benefit from the political scandal he has unleashed.

  2. The administrator redacted those opinions for the reasons he did – reasons which were precise

    Based on those reasons the individual who was commissioned by the administrator has now had his reputation shredded

    Then you go to the rubbishing of the opinion by the likes of Eslake, who at one time (at least in his ANZ days) was an influential Liberal Party member

    Both the Wilson’s (state and federal) are products of the IPA

    And the federal one has been called out for the IPA doctrine that austerity delivers confidence and that confidence will trickle down

    Now saying he did not mean what he said – that workers are chaff in the wind for the ruling class and suffer the pain whilst the rich get richer

    Who would ever trust him with the levers of power?

    And the same goes for the state Wilson

    Two peas from the same pod – and unelectable confirmed by walking away from promoting a core IPA policy

    The same with the most effective form of regulation being self regulation – favouring who exactly?

  3. Have you seen the breakdowns on that Morgan poll? Makes the whole poll seem like garbage to be honest.

    For example:

    The Greens vote is 14.5 among 18-34, and 12.5 among 65+. Since when is there only a 2 point difference in the Greens vote between 18-34 (usually over 20) and 65+ (often below 5)?

    Similarly there’s only a 2 point difference in the One Nation vote between 18-34 (25) and 50+ (27) despite every other poll showing Gen X as by far the biggest One Nation cohort and 18-34 by far the lowest.

    The Melbourne vs Country breakdown shows the One Nation vote as 24 in Melbourne too.

    So according to this poll, roughly 1 in 4 people aged 18-34 living in MELBOURNE of all places intend to vote One Nation. That’s higher than the overall One Nation result in their last federal poll, across all age groups.

    So basically this poll is saying 18-34 year old Melburnians have an above-average likelihood of voting One Nation.

    Yeah, I’m taking this poll with a huge grain of salt.

  4. Watching Sloan this am it was interesting the suggestion that Vic may go down the path of Qld in the 90s, elect a badly performing conservative government (coalition) and lose the next election.

  5. Can we just call him “The Andrew formerly known as Prince”? He’ll be done for sharing secrets and not the other “stuff”*- Don’t want to get caught in the filters.

  6. I’ve read the Liberals are in a pickle with the Liberal Party review. Because while Peter Dutton is stopping it from being released due to threats of legal action. Even if the Liberals do eventually release it. The review is scathing of Angus Taylor’s role in the election loss. It’s a dammed if they do, dammed if they don’t situation.

    “It is the biggest hot potato inside the party, absolutely incendiary,” the MP tells The Saturday Paper. “Everyone’s ringing around, the whole world is asking for it, and that tells you something as well, right? It’s not what it says about Peter; it’s the scathing assessment of our newly crowned leader.”

    While the document is understood not to single out individuals by name, its assessment of economic incoherence, weak policy development and a lack of alignment with Liberal values cuts directly across Taylor’s role as shadow treasurer in the previous parliamentary term and as a central architect of the Liberals’ 2025 election campaign.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2026/02/21/i-cant-cope-with-this-shit-liberals-confront-taylors-chequered-past

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