Days out from the start of the formal campaign period, two major polls have emerged for the March 21 South Australian election, both extraordinary even by the standards of recent Australian opinion polling. Newspoll in The Australian has the Liberals reduced to a level that would have them hard pressed to win any seats at all, with just 14% of the primary vote to Labor’s 44%, One Nation’s 24% and the Greens’ 12%. Peter Malinauskas records a remarkable 67% approval rating, with disapproval at 27%, while recently installed Liberal leader Ashton Hurn is at 39% and 35%, with Malinauskas leading 67-19 on preferred premier. Issue salience questions are dominated by cost-of-living, health, economic management and housing, with “addressing the algal bloom” barely registering. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1057.
A YouGov poll in The Advertiser is somewhat more modest, though it still has One Nation running second on 22% to Labor’s 37%, the Liberals’ 20% and the Greens’ 13%. Unlike Newspoll, YouGov has troubled to produce respondent-allocated two-party preferred results, finding Labor leading Liberal 59-41 and One Nation 60-40, compared with 54.6-45.4 versus Liberal at the 2022 election. Peter Malinauskas is at 64% approval and 28% disapproval, with Ashton Hurn at 40% and 33% and Malinauskas holding a 64-20 lead on preferred premier. Respondents were also asked if they considered Labor and Liberal “mainstream” or “a fringe party not capable of governing the state”, respectively producing splits of 84-16 for Labor and 56-44 for Liberal. The poll encompassed a longer fieldwork period than Newspoll – February 6 to 17, as compared with February 11 to 17 – and might perhaps have been less affected by the Liberals’ federal convulsions.
Further news from the South Australian front:
• Frances Bedford has announced she will seek a comeback in Florey, which she held from 1997 to 2022, as a Labor member until 2017 and an independent thereafter. Bedford ran in neighbouring Newland in 2022, which had absorbed Florey’s former focal point of Modbury, but managed only 12.3%.
• Tammy Franks, who has sat as an independent since quitting the Greens last May, has announced she will seek re-election in the Legislative Council as an independent. Franks was elected from the top of the Greens ticket in both 2010 and 2018 but did not nominate for the preselection held in 2024, later saying she had made way for parties motivated by “ambition and self-interest”. She will be running on a ticket with Faith Coleman, an ecologist who has been conducting “citizen science research” into the state’s algal bloom crisis. Coleman told a parliamentary inquiry in January that multiple government staff members had told her they were instructed not to investigate the cause of the algal bloom until after the election, a claim vehemently denied by the government.
• David Penberty of The Australian last week wrote that Liberal-turned-independent MP Fraser Ellis was “expected to hold” in Narungga, despite having been found guilty in 2024 on four charges of misusing parliamentary travel entitlements.
• Conversely, both major parties reportedly expect the Liberals to recover MacKillop, whose Liberal-turned-independent member Nick McBride is on home detention after being charged with domestic violence offences. The sensitivity of the seat presumably helps explain the Liberals siding with local farmers over the mining industry through a promised moratorium on rare earths mining.
William Bowe
Did Adelaide Writers festival fiasco registered with voters?
Liberals at 14%. Glorious.
It’s a shame that they’ve been swallowed up by the racist fascists at One Nation. Instead of a full leftward shift away from the far-right towards an even bigger Labor win and the Greens getting past their 12% rusted on base.
Diogenes and Wat Tyler
Did you notice the approval rating of Peter Malinauskas?
It is 67% in Newspoll and 64% in Yougov, an approval ratings which Western democracies can leaders dream of.
I was wondering why is he so popular when things are so bad with Malinauskas government and his ministers are dropping off like flies (not contesting election) because they couldn’t work with him?
Q: I was wondering why is he so popular when things are so bad with Malinauskas government
Well there is two reasons- the Liberals are utterly and totally unelectable. No need to outline the saga of their 4 leaders, 3 criminally charged members, work experience leader etc….
And Malinauskus is doing an an incredible job of infrastructure builds, major events, and enormous investments in health, transport and education- all with a budget surplus and the nations lowest unemployment.
Ven
I don’t see the SA Labor State MP retirements in the same way as you. I think it is a very convenient time for any Labor MPs tired of politics to go, because Labor is very unlikely to lose any seats in this election.
I have met Malinauskus and I found him friendly and personable. He is good at “pressing the flesh” – a natural politician. He is also young, popular and could be premier for a long time. For any colleagues ambitious to be leader themselves, they may well contemplate a switch to Federal politics.
That being said Malinauskus is opinionated and firm in making decisions. He gets the basics right, but stuff like writer’s week he can stuff up, and won’t always listen to others. This could cause some who think differently to give up..
Ven
Final comment – for the reasons listed by Torchbearer, this aren’t so bad in SA. The economy is going pretty well.
What is the policy position of ON on SA nobbling the bikie go round?
Good news for the ALP heading into March.
Excitement should be moderated by some tidbits.
Yougov have the ALP primary at 37. It was 40 at the last election and You gov had it at 48 in June last year. Malinauskus netsat rating is also well down. I told youse the shine was wearing off. Yougov seems to agree. It is just that he was very very shiny to begin with.
https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/52421-sa-labor-poised-for-record-breaking-victory-with-67-of-two-party-preferred-vote
I would say the 2PP polling results reflects the un-electability of the others. It is a good time to be an ALP SA leader and ALP candidate for MP.
I feel sorry for the Liberal leader – wasshername. No corflutes will make it harder for her to get face/name recognition in the short period of time she had.
Looks like Shannon is still going to be the only premiership winner in the Hurn family.
If One Nation actually become the Official Opposition in the SA state legislature it would be fascinating to see how it develops and the selections for shadow cabinet. SA is a relatively white state, it has less of an immigrant problem than both Victoria and NSW, and One Nation would have to try to function as an effective opposition on state issues and offer viable alternatives (although with the help of the Mainstream Murdochrag Media, they can just offer anything and deliver nothing and still get away with it with impunity). It would serve as a template as to how a federal One Nation opposition (or government!) would function.
Ashton Hurn is one of the only females I know with two men’s names (her middle name is Morgan) other than Quentin Bryce, as well as certainly the only one with a brother who has a woman’s first name. Probably feeds even more into One Nation who would insist on binary names – they already have that legislated in much of Europe, I believe, e.g. in Germany you can’t name your daughter “Tim”.
“it has less of an immigrant problem”
That’s a little loaded isn’t it?
——
A fascinating election.
Mali is very popular because he is very handsome, looks good in a pool, loves sport and has delivered a lot of major sporting events to SA. He is very upbeat and confident and his confidence has rubbed off onto the state.
He is a political animal and has great instincts. He works the media very well and comes across very well and they love him. He gets to give all the good news and is never there when it’s bad.
He controls the messaging and ministers obsessively and they hate that. They get no public credit when something good happens.
I don’t think there is a single minister whose profile has improved over the last four years apart from Boyer. Mali has no successor. Mullighan was the obvious one but he quit. As Treasurer. How many sitting Treasurers quit?
Mali rides him team hard. As I said before, he evidently told his wants the Libs to win ZERO seats as his pass mark for the election.
Rightly or wrongly, the public love a presidential style leader but the ministers don’t.
MABWM
I was about to say the same thing.
The three main reasons most migrants come to Melbourne and Sydney are
1. Opportunity
2. Opportunity
3. Opportunity
I’ll be glad when the SA election and the Farrer by- election are over and done with. Sick and tired of the media and its pushing of One Neuron. Inspite of Vic polling, I can’t magine a progressive State seriously considering ON as an option. Possibly in regional electorates…. and in SA….seriously?
Meanwhile, the Federal Opposition ( ie the Greens and the Teals/Indies) need to get on with ignoring the f- wits in the Coalition and take Labor to task over CGT and the expansion of coal mines ( an absolute disgrace) and their right wing fellow Labor government in WA with its abysmal environmental behaviour. How does destruction of Jarrah forests for Bauxite mine expansion sound to you?
As for Federal Labor, get to serious work on issues that people care about and affect their lives.
“Did Adelaide Writers festival fiasco registered with voters?”
I wouldn’t imagine so. I would think that “drunk” golf and super car racing would have more general appeal to SA voters than a bunch of people sitting around talking about books.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/02/south-australia-2026-what-can-right.html
South Australia 2026: What Can The Right Still Win?
I noticed that since the 2022 South Australian state election there’s been a consistent 6% gap between the popularity of state Labor and federal Labor. Like for example right now federal Labor in South Australia has an average 2PP of 57%-43% according to the most recent published opinion polls meanwhile the statewide Labor party on average has a 2PP of 63%-37% according to the recent published opinion polls. I’m guessing Peter Malinauskas is more popular than Anthony Albanese at the moment.
Albo is not “popular” and I’m glad he is not. He is however respected and hated in equal parts. He is hated by those who hate and respected by those who think.
Mali is a great front man. Albo is the bass guitarist. They each have their place.
MABWN
Who is lead guitar, rhythm guitar and drums?
Kouts is lead guitar. Need to look to the Feds for the other two.
The possibility should be countenanced that Malinauskas’s Adelaide Festival intervention may have registered with voters in a good way.
We might also consider that, aside from the relatively small group of people who are intensely focused on Israel/Palestine issues, all of whom made up their minds about their vote long ago and are unlikely to be persuaded to change, very few voters care enough about the Adelaide Festival to even notice that Malinauskas intervened, let alone change their vote because of what he said or did.
As per polling, Peter Malinauskas has much high approval rating than Albanese
Albanese net approval ratings is around (-) 15% and Malinauskas net approval ratings are around (+)40 %
Malcolm Turnbull discussing Hydro. The state of the Liberal party is also discussed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Se_Hffsbx-c
William Bowe says:
Friday, February 20, 2026 at 1:28 pm
The possibility should be countenanced that Malinauskas’s Adelaide Festival intervention may have registered with voters in a good way.
It would be interesting if there was polling data one way or the other.
The possibility should be countenanced that Malinauskas’s Adelaide Festival intervention may have registered with voters in a good way.
—-
It would be interesting if there was polling data one way or the other.
——————————–
I dont think you will find evidence of one way or the other (it is probably both) in Primary or 2PP responses to polling. My argument at the time was that the shebang was poorly managed and the fallout poorly dealt with – regardless of if the intervention itself was right or wrong, popular or not. Something caused his netsat to drop from +70 8 months ago to +36 now (man, what a glorious problem to have).
Three things have happened; new opposition leader, Adelaide Writers Festival blown up, and… time (an election now nears).
I’d think it a bit implausible that Malinauskas’ Adelaide Writers Festival intervention registered with voters in a good way, given that Labor has gone quite a few points backwards on the 2PP since it happened.
It’s just that when you were Mark McGowan landslide levels of being in front to begin with, no one is judging too hard if you fall back into Dan Andrews landslide territory.
Yeah I’m not sure how a decision that led to the cancellation of the Adelaide Writers Festival would land in a good way with many voters but I also doubt many would care enough to change their vote due to it.
“ The possibility should be countenanced that Malinauskas’s Adelaide Festival intervention may have registered with voters in a good way.”
The Adveriser certainly backed him on it and said it made him more popular.
I actually only know one person who got upset about it and when Ashton Hurn said she would have sent the same letter, the lady gave up.
I watched the Tiser “debate”. Both leaders really are very professional, articulate and polished.
It’s very hard to get actual data about the book week intervention, obviously, but SA doesn’t have the strong pro-Israel subsection of the community that is very apparent in Sydney and especially Melbourne, and outside of having the misfortune to occasionally see the front page of the Advertiser I have never encountered a single person in SA who I would think would be supportive of banning a Palestinian author (or banning anti-Israel protests/criticism, or supportive of Israel’s actions in Gaza more generally).
I also know that the online world is only a subsection of the community but if you look at virtually any online forum where these sorts of issues come up the responses are extremely critical of the way Australian governments seem to do the bidding of Israel and the Israeli lobby. I have even noticed that the comments on posts by the usual right wing rags trying to criticise protesters and drum up pro-Israel sentiment in the context of the book week saga and more generally are flooded with cynical comments, which is unusual. One of the greatest dissonances I think I’ve seen between what the media and politicians are saying and what almost everyone in the actual community seems to be saying. People have definitely wised up to the deliberate conflation of anti-semitism and legitimate criticism of possibly crimes against humanity/war crimes.
Which is a long way of saying I’d be surprised if many South Australians were happy that the premier blew up book week in apparent obedience to the dictates of a foreign power.
Re: writer’s week I’d have to imagine that most people who are notably upset about it are probably in a position where they can’t really change their vote. Would imagine a lot of that particular vote is already parked at the Greens and if it’s not – well, Mali’s demigod polling baffles me but I’m certainly not going to vote for a liberal party captured by culture warriors about it.
You’ll forgive me if I don’t attach much weight to this.
He was never NET +70 which practically speaking is incredibly hard to achieve (McGowan was NET +78 twice prior to election) as it would require a favorable higher than the NET number given even the most liked leaders usually have 10% negative (meaning a favorable of 80% and negative of only 10% for example – again McGown even still had a net 10% negative he just had a very low undecided at 2%). His actual highest was NET +61 back in 2022 (so nowhere near the popularity of McGowan). Given most of the polls are different organizations with different methodologies comparing across time between different polls is also pretty fraught notwithstanding the last time he was NET +52 (his next highest) was May 2025 well clear of Writers Festival controversy. To my knowledge the issue entered into the news January 9 at the earliest and as of Dec 2025 Fox and Hedgehog had ALP at 41% 61/39 and then end of Jan/early Feb (presumably time of peak controversy and fallout) at 40% 61/39 (with the biggest change likely being rise of One Nation). A lot of TPP vote is driven by assumptions around minor party preferences and whether actual or last election preference distributions are given. I’d also add that McGowan’s popularity was supported by the ALP being in the high 50s not high 40s which was the high watermark of SA ALP. Even with this the NatsLibs combined for 6 seats out of 59. Based on Kevin’s latest analysis it’s entirely possible the Libs and One Nation combined only achieve a similar proportion of seats (or worse), suggesting a Mark McGowan style rout is still more than likely.
“I have never encountered a single person in SA who I would think would be supportive of banning a Palestinian author
You’ll forgive me if I don’t attach much weight to this.”
In a state with One Nation on about 22% primary vote, William is of course correct.
It’s quite shocking when you ask people what they think. They don’t want to hear about ME wars and are very happy to ban pro-Palestinian activists.
That 22% are out there.
Random question:
Did the SA Government actually get around to changing the law so declaration votes can start being counted on election night, as opposed to waiting a few days as has frustratingly been the case before? I know there was chatter about putting it on the docket of electoral changes but I don’t know if anything came of it (or maybe I did and just forgot.)
They did, at least in the case of early voting centre votes.
Ah, cool. Thanks.
The Sloan Zone’s take on this SA poll. Seems like WA 2021 was just a warm up act for elections to come:
“South Australia’s Election Is Already Over”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whcxRkhMOIY
William Bowe
“ The possibility should be countenanced that Malinauskas’s Adelaide Festival intervention may have registered with voters in a good way.”
—————————————————————————-
Looking at the polls, much as I disagree with Malinauskus’ intervention, I am forced to concede you may be right. Worst case, Labor has lost nothing from the Writer’s week saga. Malinauskus clearly knows the average voter better than I.
I still think it was a mistake and did nothing to heal community division.
Either way, if these polls hold, Kevin Bonham is right about the Liberals chances.
Soc
His disclaimer basically said the analysis didn’t mean much. The mix of seats in rural and indie makes it impossible without individual seat predictions.
Bunger the First won a Sheffield Shield
Ashton, Morgan and Quentin are female names.
“Albo is not “popular” and I’m glad he is not. He is however respected and hated in equal parts. He is hated by those who hate and respected by those who think.
Mali is a great front man. Albo is the bass guitarist. They each have their place.”
@MABWM
Tell you the truth I think your right on Albo. Bob Carr wasn’t popular either despite federal Labor approaching him for the leadership and being NSW premier for 10 years. Carr was respected but also benifited from an opposition that was useless similar to Albo. Carr did have an advantage though, that Labor is seen as the natural party government in state particularly in Labor strong NSW. While federally its the Liberals which has been at times problematic for Labor and Albanese deserves credit for.
Peter Malinauskas is as you say the rock star similar to popular Labor premiers Peter Beattie, Dan Andrews, and Mark McGowan.
PN
Some pretty average politicians are blessed with a very ordinary opposition.
SA Libs have been rubbish for a generation.
One huge elephant in the room, and the main reason why the no Liberal seats theory could be debunked would be mainly the seats of Chaffey, and MacKillop. These 2 seats not only have margins of 17.3% and 22.7% respectively (None of the polls not even the most optimistic polls have a 2PP swing big enough to even come close to the swings needed to take these two seats), but they also make up part of the federal seat of Barker geographically which at the 2025 election local Dry Faction Liberal MP Tony Pasin won with a 2CP margin of 62.98%-37.02% against Labor.
The cancellation of the Adelaide Writers Festival ?
As Margaret Whitlam would have said ‘What A Lot Of Hoohar’
@PN
Peter Malinauskas is as you say the rock star similar to popular Labor premiers Peter Beattie, Dan Andrews, and Mark McGowan.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
If I had to choose between Beattie and Annastacia Palaszczuk, I would have to go for Palaszczuk.
For a leader to take her seven MPs from opposition to government in three years and throw out the Premier from his Ashgrove seat at the same time, then win another two elections on the trot, including Queensland’s first four year term, you can’t not include her name.
“If I had to choose between Beattie and Annastacia Palaszczuk, I would have to go for Palaszczuk.
For a leader to take her seven MPs from opposition to government in three years and throw out the Premier from his Ashgrove seat at the same time, then win another two elections on the trot, including Queensland’s first four year term, you can’t not include her name.”
@98.6
Annastacia Palaszczuk got into office because you only get one Campbell Newman. I think she was respected as that well liked local mayor. But never to secure the kind of electoral wins that Peter Beattie did for the simple reason she couldn’t make significant inroads into the Gold Coast. These voters during Beattie’s tenure were known as the ‘Beattie Liberals’. Beattie won four elections but would have been five had he contested the 2009 election. Beattie left Anna Bligh a 22 seat majority and was the hey day of popularity for QLD state Labor. Is why I placed him in the popular rock star category with the other politicians that I mentioned.
@Thomas Brian Mutter I think Chaffey is the most likely hold although ON vote could be high here being rural. Mackillop is anyone’s guess as the standing MP is running as an Independent but is on DV charges. I suspect ON voting in Mackillop could be very high
So much will depend on the order they come in. I think Mali said Labor will be preferencing Libs ahead of ON.
Ashton Hurn has performed well as opposition leader and will win Schubert easily.
Palaszscuk was never especially popular (except during the pandemic), more respected as a steady, reliable hand.
Dio:
I’ve been watching a fair bit of interstate local news on ABC recently, and so have seen Hurn on a few occasions now.
She seems likeable and a solid communicator, but also gives off the vibe of someone who could make a strong leader in another term or two but just isn’t ready yet. I think her youth, and – even moreso – her lack of political experience will work against her.
See also: Jess Wilson.