We got a pared back version of the regular weekly Roy Morgan result this week, since the pollster went public last Friday with the part of its regular survey that was conducted before Sussan Ley was deposed as Liberal leader last Friday. This leaves the polling done from Friday to Sunday as the first national indication of the state of play under Angus Taylor. With due regard to the fact that this leaves a sample of only 526, the results at least show the Coalition moving back ahead of One Nation, gaining three-and-a-half to 23.5% with One Nation down the same amount to 21.5%. Labor was up one-and-a-half to 32% with the Greens down half to 12.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead was back to 55-45 after a 58.5-41.5 blowout in Sussan Ley’s last poll.
Less encouraging for Angus Taylor is a poll of federal voting intention in Tasmania, conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1000 by EMRS for Pulse Tasmania. It has Labor at 30%, compared with 36.6% at the May 2025 election; One Nation on 24%, compared with 6.0%; the Liberals on 18%, compared with 24.5%; and the Greens on 13%, compared with 11.1%. A two-party result has Labor leading the Liberals 60-40, compared with 63.3-36.7 at the election.
The accompanying report offers seat-level detail from meagre samples, showing a 50-50 two-party result between Labor and One Nation in Braddon, with One Nation on 34%, Labor on 31% and Liberal on 16%. One Nation are also found to be competitive in Bass (Labor 29%, One Nation 25% and Liberal 23%) and Lyons (Labor 32%, One Nation 29% and Liberal 16%). The numbers for Clark dubiously have independent, which includes incumbent Andrew Wilkie, at 25%, with Labor on 27%, the Greens 17%, One Nation 16% and Liberal 15%. The numbers in Franklin are Labor 34%, Liberal 21%, Greens 19% and One Nation 17%.
There was also a RedBridge Group poll this week for the Australia Institute, conducted as part of the progressive think tank’s campaigning on gas exports and royalty payments, which included voting intention numbers. These had Labor on 34%, One Nation on 28%, the Coalition on 17% and the Greens on 10%. The poll was conducted immediately before Sussan Ley was deposed, from February 6 to 12, from a sample of 2010.
From previous thread
Bob Carr described that as “majority votes in majority seats” when a journalist asked the same question you are asking after his first election win.
Dennis Shanahan also predicted that John Howard could win with 2PP of 47/53 just before 2007 federal election.
From previous thread
Horrible nightmarish day for Trump.
Stunning reversal for Trump. His biggest loss yet in this term.
US Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s global tariffs 6-3, terms them illegal
A Chief Justice John Roberts-led bench upheld a lower court ruling that Trump exceeded his authority by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to levy broad import taxes.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/us-supreme-court-strikes-down-donald-trumps-sweeping-global-tariffs-terms-measures-illegal-2871795-2026-02-20
From previous thread
Trump lost almost all his leverage with other countries after SCOTUS tariff ruling. Now he can only threaten them with brute force saying things like I will bomb you to smithereens if you don’t give what I want.
Associated Press
Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s sweeping tariffs
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/2/20/2369583/-Supreme-Court-strikes-down-Trump-s-sweeping-tariffs?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_4&pm_medium=web
From previous thread
SL
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/2/20/2369456/-Offshore-wind-triumphs-over-Trump-in-court-but-future-projects-face-delays?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web
From previous thread
Democrats don’t want you to forget the cost of Trump’s dumb tariffs
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/2/20/2369594/-Democrats-don-t-want-you-to-forget-the-cost-of-Trump-s-dumb-tariffs?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
Read rest of the statements from other Democratic party leaders on SCOTUS tariff ruling.
PP
Where are you? Now globalists win. Your head must be hurting a lot now. 🙂
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-21/widespread-rain-forecast-for-south-australia-riverina-victoria/106370362
Not quite as wet as the UK which has had 50 consecutive days of rain, according to the Sun.
“I was so brave I wanted to give myself the Congressional Medal of Honor. “- Don the Depraved
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/2/20/2369555/-I-was-so-brave-I-wanted-to-give-myself-the-Congressional-Medal-of-Honor-Don-the-Depraved?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Trump is becoming more and more unhinged uninhibited as days go by.
SL
Climate change deniers probably will say that Climate change is working out well for Australia. 🙂
The Daily Beast
@thedailybeast
The Coast Guard was trying to find a missing service member when officials say Kristi Noem intervened in the search-and-rescue mission.
From thedailybeast.com
11:29 PM · Feb 17, 2026
·
1.2M
Views
Coast Guard Brass Secretly Fume at ICE Barbie Over Jaw-Dropping Order
https://www.thedailybeast.com/coast-guard-brass-secretly-fume-at-ice-barbie-over-jaw-dropping-order/?utm_source=twitter_owned_tdb&utm_medium=socialflow&utm_campaign=owned_social&via=twitter_page
Thanks WB
first sentence – ‘part(?) of its regular survey’
Hey Ven, trouble sleeping? 🙂
I know how it is.
Ven all my worst conspiracy theories turned out to be far too tame.
Yes Omar.
I am having trouble sleeping due to pain in my left knee after total knee replacement surgery.
Now, Trump is openly defying SCOTUS ruling Trump tarriffs
I can charge much more: Trump imposes new 10% global tariff after Supreme Court blow
Trump announced a new global tariff under Section 122 following the Supreme Court’s ruling against his earlier measures, insisting he can impose stronger trade actions and promising further alternatives.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/i-can-charge-much-more-donald-trump-imposes-new-10-global-tariff-after-supreme-court-blow-2871881-2026-02-21
Ven – thinking of you in your recovery and hope it improves for you sooner rather than later.
Hope the recovery is going well Ven
Trump won’t give up that easily, he has announced a 10% global tariff, to apply on top of existing tariffs, starting in 3 days and lasting 5 months
The world needs to work around him and keep building alternative trade structures
Well Ven that’s a better excuse than ‘smoked a pack of cigarettes and drank four coffees while gambling on winter olympics’ – Take care and get well.
Thanks newyboy and HBG for your wishes.
Now that Trump is defying SCOTUS with new and extra 10% taxes, the next steps of US Congress will be very interesting.
SCOTUS ruling on Tariffs
Who voted with majority decision
Small sample on this poll, and a big “don’t know” but I’ve got my fingers crossed the Greens can get over the line
“The second by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows the Greens winning the seat
GRN – 20%
REF – 17%
LAB – 15%
CON – 3%
LD – 1%
Don’t knows – 27%
Won’t vote – 13%
Via Omnisis, 452 sample size, Feb 13-19”
Upnorth re Joh’s legitimacy.
Wtte: preferential voting has worked both for and against the Labor party.
I am obviously significantly older than you as I can remember the DLP era when Labor constantly railed against preferences. There were suggestions of reducing preferences to a fractional value or just going FPTP.
At a time when Irish jokes were becoming a thing, Whitlam made a speech, to much laughter, saying the only other parliament to have preferential voting was the Irish Dáil (although it actually uses Hare-Clarke with optional preferences)
Aussie Aussie Aussie!
Stand with your hand on your heart in pride. Our T20 men’s team defeated the cricket powerhouse of Oman with 9 wickets and more than 10 overs in hand. I’m choking up.
Liberal senator, Andrew McLachlan, has penned a superb contribution titled, ”
Racist rhetoric is warping the Liberal party’s moral compass. We are destined to fail unless we govern for all”.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/20/racist-rhetoric-is-warping-the-liberal-partys-moral-compass-we-are-destined-to-fail-unless-we-govern-for-all
Insiders Sunday, 22 Feb
David Speers discusses the week in politics with Niki Savva, Patricia Karvelas and Charles Croucher including immigration, ‘ISIS brides’, Pauline Hanson’s comments, inflation, wage growth, and Angus Taylor’s shadow ministry.
GUEST : Tony Burke – Home Affairs Minister
World News & Politics Patrol:
Turns Out There Was Voter Fraud in Georgia—by Elon Musk: https://newrepublic.com/post/206857/georgia-voter-fraud-elon-musk
ICE agents could be banned from getting public jobs in N.J. for life under new plan: https://www.nj.com/politics/2026/02/ice-agents-could-be-banned-from-getting-public-jobs-in-nj-for-life-under-new-plan.html
Supreme Court strikes down most of Trump’s tariffs in a major blow to the president: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-strikes-trumps-tariffs-major-blow-president-rcna244827
Trump announces new 10% global tariff after raging over Supreme Court loss: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/20/trump-global-trade-tariff-supreme-court.html
Trump calls Supreme Court justices who ruled against tariffs ‘disloyal”: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5747841-trump-criticizes-court-justices/
Fox News host: Trump needs to make ‘better’ Iran case before starting ‘another war’: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5747769-trump-needs-better-case-iran/
Massie: Trump UFO talk ‘ultimate weapon of mass distraction’ from Epstein files: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5747213-massie-trump-ufos-epstein-files/
MAGA Furiously Scrambles to Make ‘Alien Files’ the New Epstein Files: https://www.thedailybeast.com/maga-furiously-scrambles-to-make-alien-files-the-new-epstein-files/
US lawmakers plan Iran war powers vote as Trump weighs strikes: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-lawmakers-plan-iran-war-powers-vote-trump-weighs-strikes-2026-02-20/
Israeli settlers kill 19-year-old Palestinian American, officials and witnesses say: https://apnews.com/article/israel-west-bank-gaza-war-palestinians-ec2736c95acf273a9fb1f2d541f46bb5
Andrew faces being cut from line of succession: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/20/andrew-must-remove-himself-from-line-of-succession/
Nasa is targeting early March to launch a crew around the Moon for the first time in more than 50 years, in what would be humankind’s furthest trip into space. The Artemis II mission will see four astronauts embark on a 10-day journey around the far side of the Moon and back to Earth, paving the way for a future lunar landing. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86y1g6wde3o
The US Congress will not lift a finger to stop the tyrannical Trump from imposing his new domestic tax on the citizens of his country. Which he misleadingly characterises as tariffs on other countries. Sure, the tariff may be on other countries but it’s his own citizens who pay the price.
Hopefully a new court case makes its way again to the Supreme Court.
Re the Supreme Court’s tariff decision. The fact that it took the best part of a year is something of a disgrace. In that time, many businesses went bust, people lost their life savings, etc. It was a bleedingly obvious decision (albeit not, of course, for Alito and Thomas and, slightly more surprisingly, Kavanagh). Emergency powers are for emergencies. There was no emergency. A 10 year old could have worked that one out.
The court should have put an injunction on the tariffs the day after “Liberation Day.” That Trump’s tariff nonsense was allowed to go on for so long is a classic case of “justice delayed is justice denied.”
PP
Where are you? Now globalists win. Your head must be hurting a lot now.
Ven, maybe he’s sucking eggs for breakfast?
But you know he’ll just come back with some rubbish about how Trump has fooled us all again after he found a new way to make the poor citizens of his country pay for his global bullying and corruption.
Oakeshott Country
In suggesting that Irish jokes ever went out of fashion…was the comment by Whitlam a reference to political instability and violence in Ireland at the time, or just a racist cheap shot as you seem to imply? Is there a difference?
c@t:
I suspect Trump was just lashing out and that there won’t end up being a 10 per cent across the board tariff. The rules on tariffs are pretty clear: they are a matter for Congress, not the President. Other than in emergencies. And it’s hard to envisage an emergency that requires an 10 per cent across the board tariff. I think that, if he tries it, the Supreme Court will actually put an injunction on it this time.
He could of course try to get a bill for such a tariff through Congress. No certainty in an election year.
This is a humiliating defeat for him and I reckon he will have a lasting impact on his popularity. Iran needs to be very careful, as I would imagine he is itching to launch an attack on them to regain some of his lost mojo.
Thanks for sharing BK and well said Andrew McLachlan
Hopefully read far and wide, finished powerfully with
“To cut racist rhetoric from the body politic is both conservative and a progressive act. But it is so much more than that. It is moral leadership.”
The numbers are very tight in Congress….no guarantee a tariff bill will pass.
To paraphrase Kavanaugh’s minority opinion-‘let him do it, he will just find a way around it if we stop him’….
I’m disappointed in the Supreme Court ruling. I was hoping the tax would remain, a reminder for voters this year that Trump has done nothing to ease cost of living pain.
But I bet there are quite a few Republicans breathing a sigh of relief today.
Omar Comin’:
Whitlam was said to have been inclined to make edgy jokes. Often they were only meant for the ears of the press gallery: in particular, his celebrated comment that he was glad to be heading down to Tassie because, with all the inbreeding, there was a good chance of getting some two-headed fellatio.
Tasmanians got over that slight long ago, and I’m surprised that our Fenian friend OC still nurtures resentments about Gough’s comments about the Dail. (Although OC is to right to see Gough’s comments as unjust, in that the problem with the Dail was not the electoral system, but the inability at the time of the Irish political system to produce political parties that offered any sort of a contest over anything much.)
Labor’s obsessive hatred of preferential voting was always stupid and the advent of the Greens and their impact in NSW (and, for a time, Queensland) was a deserved visit by the karma bus.
HH DP
Whatever Trump and his minions said about others till now is just a ‘Projection’. They are projecting on others what they will do. Trump is an expert on this.
Omar
Irish jokes seem to be exempt from racist interpretation in most situations- but in Whitlam’s case it was an implication that only the Irish were dumb enough to use preferences.
The Republic had been politically stable and largely free of political violence for 50 years at the time.
Wow thanks meher baba what a thoughtful and informative reply.
Thanks OC
The one I heard at school was about a submarine iirc. I realised after I posted that I had conflated Ireland and Northern Ireland. Thanks and please forgive my ignorance.
This is a pretty good article on the recent Carbon Leakage Review, although I wish the media would stop framing these issues as battles and wars:
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/economy/2026/02/21/labor-pitches-its-next-carbon-battle
The Carbon Leakage Review recommends that Australia adopts a phased approach to implementing Carbon Border Adjustments (CBAs) on a select group of commodities, starting with cement and its constituents. In response to Taylor’s three claims above:
1. The Review makes clear that any CBA should abide with the international rules-based system
and rely on internationally agreed standards and guidelines. Further, the “Review directly engaged with stakeholders in Canada, China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Thailand, the United Kingdom, the United States and Vietnam.”
2. If implemented a CBA would potentially increase costs. The Review calculated the following increases on imported commodities:
1-3% for concrete
3-5% for flat steel
1-3% for ammonium nitrate fertiliser
The estimated price impacts on end products are more modest:
0.05-0.1% for a house with a $473,000 construction price
0.1-0.3% for a $215 million 100 MW wind farm
0.3-0.5% for a $435 tonne of wheat
3. As for the US, who cares. Trump should be gone before any CBAs are implemented and, in any case, he’d probably be distracted by UFOs or Making Mercury Great Again, or some other stupid thing.
https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/carbon-leakage-review-final-report.pdf
Fess: “I’m disappointed in the Supreme Court ruling. I was hoping the tax would remain, a reminder for voters this year that Trump has done nothing to ease cost of living pain. But I bet there are quite a few Republicans breathing a sigh of relief today.”
————————————————————————
I’m not sure it does the Republicans much good at all. Trump’s been all about looking powerful and unstoppable. He’s been losing that aura lately, and this is a big setback. The Republican politicians in the House and Senate might have been damaged by the tariffs, but they will be equally or even more damaged by a declining morale among the MAGA base. They need the Trump-lovers to turn out enthusiastically in the mid-terms. That’s going to be harder when Trump is looking weakened.
He might have been able to salvage something from the wreckage if he had stood up and said something like “This is disappointing, but I respect the Supreme Court’s decision and will pay the money back. The upside is that the repayments will have a stimulating effect on the economy.”
Instead he’s gone for the classic screen villain response of “You’ve got me this time but, don’t worry, I’ll soon be back to get you all. (Hammy evil laughter.)”
As I posted above, I’m quite concerned that his next response will be to try to bolster his machismo by launching some sort of military action, probably against Iran.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/uk-signals-plan-to-cut-former-prince-andrew-from-royal-line-of-succession-20260221-p5o48d.html
This is quite the fall from grace. If Liz hadn’t died I wonder how she would’ve handled Andrew.
meher:
Apparently it’s $175 billion in illegally collected taxes from businesses. That’s a lot of White House ballrooms!
I’ve been catching up with the full text of the Supreme Court judgements. I’m no expert on US constitutional law, but I find Kavanaugh’s dissenting judgement to be pretty weak. (I expect nothing from Alito and Thomas, but always hope for something a bit better from the three judges appointed in Trump’s first term.)
Kavanaugh seems to be arguing that, even though the rules have been clear for a long time that the President only has the power to impose tariffs during emergencies, this rule has effectively been negated by successive Presidents making regular use of the power to block imports from countries in response to human rights violations, etc. I struggle to make sense of this: perhaps I’m missing something.
There is a view in some circles that Roberts likes to orchestrate the way the Supreme Court makes decisions to avoid upsetting the current President and other powerful people. Perhaps he thought 7-2 would look a bit too humiliating for Trump and tried to get two out of Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett to vote on Trump’s side to reach a 5-4 decision. But he failed with Gorsuch (who seemed pretty fired up against the tariffs) and Barrett (who seems to be very much a constitutional conservative).
In that case, perhaps Kavanaugh was reluctantly coming up with the best arguments he could think of. If so, he didn’t do very well.
I see Tantrum/Turd Throwing Trump has had a massive hissy fit over his tariff bs being turfed and and retaliates by putting a…sigh…10% tariff on all imports from the rest of the world. Way to go Donnie, that’ll show ’em.
fess:
A big surge of money into the economy. But Trump will keep on pressuring the Federal Reserve to put interest rates down. Because he’ll need lower interest rates to help stop the US Government debt from ballooning even further.
I don’t know if any bookmakers take bets on the rate of inflation, but I’d be putting my money on it increasing strongly during 2026 and 2027.
On the other hand, it’s possible that Kevin Warsh’s appointment as Fed Reserve chair might get blocked in the Senate, unless the DoJ drops the charges against Jerome Powell and Lisa Cook.
All good fun.
What in tarnation, being viewed negatively by Trump!
Hanson would have a conniption.
Littleproud’s punk is said to be hiring Sam Riordan for his Chief of Staff.
Riordan’s day job is oil and gas industry lobbyist.
Khamenei the fall guy for Trump, Epstein and SCOTUS?
A rather mixed load of passengers for Khamenei’s karma bus.
Kronomex
The 10% tariff imposed by Trump is in addition to the existing tariffs he imposed and adjusted at his whim since April last year.
10% global tariff increase?
Vengeance is mine, I will repay, sayeth the Lord.
Ven,
Jeez, his stupidity and petulance knows no bounds.