The Herald Sun has a DemosAU/Premier National state voting intention poll for Victoria, providing a new outlet for the all-encompassing One Nation upheaval. After neglecting to include the party as a response option in its October poll, the latest result has it at 21%, within striking distance of Labor on 23% (down three from October), with the Coalition down eight to 29%. The Greens are steady on 15%, while an “others” category that now has One Nation broken out from it is down ten to 12%. The pollster provides a two-party preferred result that puts the Coalition ahead 53-47, out from 51-49, according to a formula that gives them 75% of One Nation, 10% of Greens and 55% of other preferences.
Jacinta Allan was rated positively by 16%, neutrally by 31% and negatively by 53%, while Jess Wilson respectively scores 27%, 49% and 24%. Wilson leads 40-31 on preferred premier, little different from Brad Battin’s 40-32 lead in the October poll. A question on upper house voting intention, for which 12% were uncommitted, has One Nation shading Labor by 20% to 19%, with the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 14%, Legalise Cannabis on 5% and Animal Justice on 4%. The poll distinctively found crime and violence rated the most important issue by 30%, shading the usual front-runner cost of living at 29%, followed by housing affordability on 12%. The poll was conducted February 1 to 10 from a sample of 1274.
“Using adjusted 2022 State Election Flows, with One Nation preferences assigned as per 2025 Federal Election in Victoria. (Grn: 90-10 Labor, ONP: 75-25 L/NP, Other 55-45 L/NP)”
So they are using 2022 Vic others which were basically a grab-bag of anti-Dandrews parties but using 2025 Fed flows for One Nation? This strikes me as an incredibly inconsistent methodological choice. Others in Fed 2025 after excluding One Nation favoured Labor. Different pools of parties existed between those elections.
I’d estimate that the 53-47 is really a 51-49 based on that alone. Or if you split Others as 50-50, then 52-48.
This isn’t the first time Demos has made very weird methodological choices that have the effect of flattering the conservative side of politics, or at the very least causing a “shock” headline 2PP figure (looking at that use of Hunter 2025 preferences to get 50-50 between Labor and One Nation). Eyebrow-raising to say the least.
Good candidate for libs in a very marginal seat…..
https://www.sgst.com.au/bass-coast-mayor-rochelle-halstead-yes-to-state-election-bid/
The leader of the opposition to everything Jess whats her name,is out of the blocks brandishing another royal commission threat into the CFMEU and a the rotten labor state govt.
Trouble is,the real boss lady was on top of things and had referred the story to IBAC in the middle of July 2024.
Not her problem that IBAC is well known to be slower than half dead garden snail thanks to all the referrals have made to it over several years.
Kos Samaras made the interesting point that some of the metro seats that might be susceptible to One Nation are the not-quite-outer ones where the migrant communities are mostly second- or third-generation and largely come from southern Europe – some of the biggest anti-Labor swings in 2022 were in seats like this rather than the truly fringe suburbs, which have a lot of the sort of people One Nation don’t like very much. Thomastown is one seat which comes to mind but there will be others like it in the west too.
I’m guessing The Age will follow up today’s federal Resolve poll with a Victorian state one tomorrow or soon after, it’s due about now and if I recall correctly, the last federal Resolve poll was followed by a NSW state one (they tend to alternate between the two).
It’ll be interesting to see if the Resolve one is similar to DemosAU. Resolve has also been one of the weaker polling series for Labor, but throughout 2025 they had rebounded from 22% back up to around 30%.
I’m guessing the Labor primary vote will be back in the mid-20s again, but it’ll mostly be interesting to see if the Coalition primary takes a big hit and falls to around 30%, this is the main thing I’ve been curious to see at the state level since the federal collapse has been unfolding.
I had expected the state Libs to cop a hit to their primary vote as well, and DemosAU had it down from 37% to 29% so it’ll be interesting to see if another poll also shows the same.
I noticed that Sky News is already promoting the narrative that this poll points to a likely change of government with One Nation winning seats and holding the balance of power.
Could be shooting themselves in the foot with that message as it’ll be extremely unhelpful to the Libs anywhere within about 20km of Melbourne CBD.
Trent @ #55 Monday, February 16th, 2026 – 11:53 am
Who were they suggesting as the main party’s in this change of govt?
The article suggested that Jess Wilson is likely to be the next Premier but in minority with One Nation holding the balance of power due to winning regional & rural seats.
Probably not the messaging the Libs themselves would want to put out there trying to win Box Hill, Glen Waverley, Ashwood, Ringwood, Bentleigh etc while holding onto seats like Hawthorn.
Linking Jess Wilson to One Nation isn’t the smartest strategy when the Libs seem to have gone to so much effort to present themselves as moderate. Jeff Kennett probably hasn’t helped by going out saying she should cut a deal with One Nation either (Vic Labor are already posting about this on Facebook).
Trent @ #57 Monday, February 16th, 2026 – 12:19 pm
Good gracious! Can you just imagine how that lash up would go.Four wasted years of Victorians have the life sucked out of them and infighting of biblical proportions amongst the righteous and what ever is left of the moderates.You wouldn’t know from one week to next if A.B.C.D etc was still a phon,an Independent or resigned due to lack of interest.Dog help us 🙁
The more “real” the threat of an LNP-ONP minority becomes, the more the Liberal vote will be squeezed from both sides.
Right-wing voters drooling at that prospect will have no hesitation to vote One Nation; while moderate Liberal swing voters repelled by the thought of One Nation will either vote IND or hold their noses to vote Labor.
If Labor run an effective enough scare campaign about an LNP/ONP minority, the voters that Labor lose to One Nation could effectively be offset by gaining centrist voters motivated to keep One Nation out.
Long way to go still but if 2026 is defined by a continued collapse of the Liberals & surge for One Nation federally, and One Nation win seats while the Liberals are wiped out of SA, and Victorian polls and seat projections show a legitimate threat of an LNP/ONP minority, that is probably Labor’s best chance at retaining government if they take full advantage of that.
….along with replacing Jacinta Allan before it’s too late. Preferably with her stepping down to “retire” so it doesn’t come across like a spill or instability. I actually like her and don’t think she deserves the poor approval rating she has, but the fact is that it’s beyond recovery now and she has become a serious drag on the Labor vote.
Key update:
Definitely True 7
Probably True 1
Probably False 2
Definitely False 4
7 false keys for opposition 2PP win.
If it was today:
Definitely True 7
Probably True 0
Probably False 1
Definitely False 6
Jeff’s lost the plot if he thinks the Liberals should do deals with PHON. Every time they do deals with PHON, they get smashed.
I can’t help thinking that there are more than a few federal Labor MPs in Victoria secretly hoping that the Coalition do end up forming a minority government with One Nation in November.
Trent & Asha
In 1998 I thought before the Queensland election and for a lot of election night that we were about to see the first Liberal/National/One Nation government. I was disturbed by that possibility but at the same time I consoled myself with the thought that the ensuing chaos would help prevent this happening again, and would generally help Labor.
If the Coalition post election in Victoria can only govern relying on One Nation in the lower house I think we would be headed for a ‘permacrisis’ (to use a recent ‘word of the year’). Such a scenario might even end up in an early second election outside the set four year terms expiring in late November.
And it would not help the Coalition federally.
Funnily enough those posters saying ‘Vote Liberal get Barnaby’ could be reused with his new role in ON!